To be honest, Arthur Hayes is someone that no one in the circle should be unfamiliar with. Co-founder of BitMEX, he made a fortune early on by running an exchange, and although he had some troubles with regulators later, his macro instincts have always been very accurate.
Recently he also stated: BTC should reach 200,000 dollars before March 2026.
I tell you, his logic this time is actually not complicated. The core is a simple sentence - the Federal Reserve is going to ease again. He said the Federal Reserve has a new tool called 'Reserve Management Purchase', abbreviated as RMP, which sounds quite sophisticated, but essentially it's just a rebranded unlimited QE. What does it mean? It means the printing press is going to start again, and this time there may not even be a limit set.
Those who understand, understand. Every time the Federal Reserve injects a lot of liquidity, BTC is one of the first assets to take off. During that surge from 3,800 to 69,000 in 2020, the biggest driving force behind it was infinite QE. If this script comes again, what do you think BTC will do?
Hayes' judgment is that BTC will grind in the range of 80,000 to 100,000 for a while, and once it breaks 124,000, it will accelerate straight to 200,000. He even boldly states that it may reach 500,000 by 2026. His own fund, Maelstrom, is almost fully invested and he is also leveraging through long positions in MSTR and that Japanese Metaplanet.
From the market perspective, BTC is indeed oscillating repeatedly in this range, unable to go up or down, and many people are losing patience. But I have experienced 312, 519, and the FTX crash. To be honest: every time a big market movement comes, it's always this kind of torturous sideways movement. Most people get washed out during the sideways period, then chase high prices when the surge happens, repeatedly cutting losses.
My stance is clear: it's fine to listen to others' target prices, whether it's 200,000 or 500,000; that's their expectation, not your trading plan. The key is what? The key is whether you have any positions in hand right now.
Cash is king; I've said this countless times. Don't use leverage, don't short, don't play short-term; just hold onto cash and wait for the main upward wave. If you have a bottom position at 80,000 or 90,000, no matter if it rises to 150,000 or 200,000 in the future, you'll reap the rewards. If you're currently in cash waiting for a pullback, and it really breaks through and surges like Hayes said, you'll just have to watch others make money from the sidelines.
Don't go against the trend. The Federal Reserve's plan to inject liquidity is not just Hayes saying it; many macro analysts are discussing the same logic. If the overall direction is fine, the rest is just a matter of time. And time is precisely the greatest advantage for cash players.
In short: managing your own position is a hundred times more important than guessing others' target prices. Eating the main upward wave from the bottom relies not on prediction but on patience and discipline.
How much do you think this round of BTC can reach? Is your position heavy?
