起飞小喜

Last night, on February 12, just as the market sentiment was slightly recovering from the previous days' sharp decline, a public forecast report from top investment bank Standard Chartered pointed out that Bitcoin will drop to $50,000 in the 'next few months,' while Ethereum is expected to be cut down to $1,400.
It is important to note that Bitcoin has just plummeted from its historical high of approximately $126,000 set in October 2025 to a low of about $60,000 on February 6, a drop close to being halved (-48%).
Timing psychology: Is Wall Street's 'contrarian indicator' curse back again?

Last week, BlockFills, a cryptocurrency lending and liquidity provider headquartered in Windy City and known for its 'professional' and 'steady' reputation, suddenly hit the pause button. It wasn't for maintenance of a particular function, but rather a direct freeze on withdrawal channels for approximately 2000 hedge funds and asset management companies, with trading also being strictly restricted. As of today, everything remains frozen.
BlockFills service customers have a minimum entry threshold of 10 million US dollars in digital asset holdings, making it a pure 'institutional players club.' By 2025, its trading volume is expected to reach 60 billion US dollars. More critically, its financial backers are the well-known traditional financial giants - Susquehanna International Group and CME Ventures under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Just a few days ago, on the evening of February 6th, one of South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Bithumb, staged what may be the most expensive "fat-finger" incident in financial history. An employee, while distributing rewards to users in the backend, was supposed to input 620,000 Korean won. As a result, the unit was mistakenly set to Bitcoin (BTC).
Just like that. 620,000 Bitcoins were mistakenly sent to 695 users like a New Year's red envelope. At the time of the coin price, this batch of "red envelopes" was worth over 44 billion dollars.
The consequences are unimaginable. Users who received the "windfall" were initially stunned, then frantically sold off. The price of Bitcoin on the Bithumb platform instantly collapsed, plunging by 17%. The exchange was in chaos.

On February 6, 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a 'century crash.' In just 24 hours, over 580,000 investors were forced to close their positions, with a total liquidation amount reaching $2.665 billion.
But the cliff-like drop in the price chart is merely the surface turbulence. The real undercurrents lie in the unfathomable data on the blockchain.
When the market crashes, we often hear emotional terms like 'panic' and 'sell-off.' There is an accurate 'deep-sea thermometer' that can objectively measure the pain level of the entire market—it's the loss ratio of Bitcoin supply.

Everyone wants to ask, why? What exactly triggered this epic sell-off?
It is not the crash of a certain giant whale, nor is it some black swan event, but merely a statement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a congressional hearing. A calm, restrained yet utterly decisive remark has become the last straw that broke the camel's back.
The bubble of fantasy: What did the statement 'no bailout' puncture?
Since the Trump administration took office, despite its fluctuating stance on cryptocurrencies, the generally 'friendly' signals it has released have created a subtle expectation in the market. Many investors, especially newly entering institutions and retail investors, harbor a deep-seated belief: the government will not stand idly by.

Former 'money printer': The financial flywheel of 'financing - buying coins'
What is a DAT company? Simply put, it is a group of publicly traded companies that have 'buying Bitcoin' as their core strategy.
The core of this model is a clever design known as the 'capital flywheel.' Its operational logic is simple and brutal yet exceptionally effective:
Financing: The company raises a large amount of fiat currency by issuing stocks or convertible bonds in the capital market.
Buying coins: The money raised is unhesitatingly投入加密市场, making large purchases of Bitcoin.
Driving up stock prices: Massive institutional buying has not only driven up Bitcoin prices but also ignited enthusiasm in the capital markets. Investors view these companies as 'proxy stocks for Bitcoin,' and their stock prices often carry a high premium, with increases that can even surpass Bitcoin itself.

The numbers on the Bitcoin price chart have ruthlessly dropped to the threshold of $60,000, which is regarded as a 'psychological iron bottom.' Even more brutally, this drop has completely erased all the glorious gains that Bitcoin accumulated since that noisy night in November 2024—when Trump announced his victory as President of the United States.
Within 24 hours, hundreds of thousands of investors were forcibly liquidated, with liquidation amounts reaching billions of dollars. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana saw their values halved simultaneously, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies collapsed like an avalanche.
1. $60,000: Not just a number, but the psychological 'Maginot Line.'

For many years, the term 'quantum threat' has echoed on the fringes of the tech world like a cry of 'the wolf is coming,' sometimes stirring a ripple and at other times falling silent.
Just two days later, on February 6, a quantum computing company named 01 Quantum will launch the world's first blockchain-oriented quantum-resistant migration toolkit on the emerging high-performance public chain Hyperliquid.
All of our cryptographic security today, whether it is Bitcoin, Ethereum, or your bank password, largely relies on a 'mathematical problem.' For example, it is easy to multiply two enormous prime numbers; but conversely, given a huge product, it is as difficult as climbing to the sky to decompose it back into those two prime numbers. This is the cornerstone of current mainstream cryptographic algorithms (such as RSA and ECDSA). Your private key is hidden in this mathematical maze, safe and sound.

A great debate about the future of Ethereum was ignited by an industry commentary article titled (The Twilight of the Technological Utopia). The article's viewpoint is sharp and direct: Ethereum's biggest enemy may not be Solana, which is lightning-fast in transaction speed, but rather itself — the one that adheres to the 'correct' roadmap while increasingly drifting away from the real user experience.
The story of Ethereum was once a passionate legend of a dragon-slaying youth. But now, this youth seems to have built an ivory tower that is too perfect for himself. The core design of this tower is the well-known 'Rollup-centered roadmap.'

India, as the rotating chair of the BRICS nations this year, has officially proposed an ambitious initiative: to establish a cross-border settlement network for 'BRICS Digital Currency Interconnection' based on alliance chain technology.
In other words, the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) plan to start anew by connecting their respective central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to create a digital payment highway of their own.
It brings global attention back to the old yet increasingly urgent topic of de-dollarization.

Just last week, Eddie Yue, the CEO of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, dropped a bombshell: 36 institutions have submitted applications for stablecoin issuer licenses, aiming to issue Hong Kong's first batch of stablecoin licenses next March, which is next month.
However, the Monetary Authority has also made it clear that the first batch of licenses will be issued very cautiously, with the number being 'certainly not many', and it may only be 'single digits'.
How high is the threshold? This is not a game that everyone can play.
First, you need to be a 'local entity in Hong Kong' and have at least 25 million HKD in paid-up capital; this is just the starting price.

Just a few days ago, when Bitcoin was hovering around $83,000, people were still discussing when they could touch the stars and the sea of $100,000. However, in an instant, a sudden crash smashed the price through the $80,000 barrier, hitting a low of $75,636, leaving the entire market in despair. Ethereum suffered even more severely, plunging from a high of $2,680 to a low of $2,219, nearly erasing all gains from the past month.
So, where is the bottom? We must dive into deeper waters—on-chain data—to look for those truly solid 'cost lines.'

Institutional funds are withdrawing, where is the new narrative?
On the first day of February 2026, the price of Bitcoin fell helplessly below $76,000, directly breaking through the lowest point since April 2025. The total market capitalization of the entire crypto world evaporated by approximately $111 billion in just 24 hours—this figure is equivalent to a large tech company suddenly disappearing from the earth.
The entire contract market is in despair, with a liquidation amount of $2.566 billion, meaning over 400,000 investors have been forcibly 'liquidated' in their sleep or while awake. Even more unsettling is that traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver have not been spared, with spot prices plummeting over 10% and 26% in a single day, respectively.

The price of Bitcoin unexpectedly broke through the 76,000 dollar mark, hitting a new low since April 2025.
In just 24 hours, the total market value of cryptocurrencies evaporated by over 110 billion dollars. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount across the network reached an astonishing 2.566 billion dollars, with over 420,000 investors being ruthlessly 'targeted for liquidation'.
While the cryptocurrency world was bleeding, gold and silver, seen as traditional 'safe havens', also experienced an epic flash crash. The spot price of gold encountered the largest single-day drop in nearly 40 years on January 31, plummeting by over 10%, and the silver market was similarly in ruins.

Let's call it 'Black Sunday' — Bitcoin plummeted sharply within just a few hours, breaking through several key support levels, and the total liquidation amount across the network reached the highest record since the epic crash in October 2025.
First Pressure: Trump's 'Ace in the Hole' and the Return of a Strong Dollar
When Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, the air on Wall Street became tense. Who is Warsh? A staunch hawk, an advocate for tightening the monetary reins.