Just a few days ago, when Bitcoin was hovering around $83,000, people were still discussing when they could touch the stars and the sea of $100,000. However, in an instant, a sudden crash smashed the price through the $80,000 barrier, hitting a low of $75,636, leaving the entire market in despair. Ethereum suffered even more severely, plunging from a high of $2,680 to a low of $2,219, nearly erasing all gains from the past month.
So, where is the bottom? We must dive into deeper waters—on-chain data—to look for those truly solid 'cost lines.'
When MicroStrategy's faith begins to 'lose'.
This publicly listed company has taken an unprecedented stance, going all in on Bitcoin with its company reserves, and its founder Michael Saylor has been hailed as the 'Bitcoin Evangelist'. Therefore, MicroStrategy's cost basis line has, in a sense, already surpassed its own financial significance and has become a 'weather vane' of confidence for the entire market observation institutions.
According to the latest data, as of February 2, 2026, MicroStrategy holds an astonishing 712,647 Bitcoins, with an average cost basis of about $76,037. This means that at the moment the price of Bitcoin falls below $76,000, this market's most steadfast bull will have its massive position enter a state of unrealized loss.
$56,000 'on-chain consensus'.
Top research institutions like Galaxy Digital have long shifted their focus from traditional candlestick charts to more essential on-chain metric analysis. Among numerous on-chain models, one metric is crucial, which is the 'Realized Price'.
In simple terms, the 'Realized Price' can be understood as the average cost basis of all participants in the entire Bitcoin network. It calculates the price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain, then takes its average. Therefore, it reflects the true cost basis of holders and the overall profit and loss situation in the market better than the market price.
According to the latest on-chain data analysis, the current 'Realized Price' of Bitcoin is around $56,000.
If the market price falls below this level, it means that on average, every Bitcoin holder in the market will be in a state of loss. Historically, cases where the market price falls below the 'Realized Price' are extremely rare, and each occurrence marks the deepest and most painful surrender phase of a bear market, but it often also represents a historical bottom region.
Ethereum's 'minefield': Beware of the $700 million liquidation waterfall.
During this drop, the price of Ethereum once fell below $2,300. This is not just an integer threshold, but also a fatal liquidation trigger point. According to precise data from the liquidation data platform CoinGlass, once the price of Ethereum falls below $2,323, it could trigger forced liquidations of long positions worth up to $703 million. The price is currently struggling around this area, which means a massive liquidation storm could erupt at any moment, forming a death spiral of 'price drop -> trigger liquidation -> intensified sell-off -> further price drop'.
In the market, a whale address named Trend Research is facing immense pressure. The institution holds about 650,000 Ethereum, but its cost basis is far higher than the current market price, resulting in significant unrealized losses. According to on-chain analysis, if the market continues to decline, the liquidation price of its position is around $1,880.
