Just last week, Eddie Yue, the CEO of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, dropped a bombshell: 36 institutions have submitted applications for stablecoin issuer licenses, aiming to issue Hong Kong's first batch of stablecoin licenses next March, which is next month.

However, the Monetary Authority has also made it clear that the first batch of licenses will be issued very cautiously, with the number being 'certainly not many', and it may only be 'single digits'.

How high is the threshold? This is not a game that everyone can play.

First, you need to be a 'local entity in Hong Kong' and have at least 25 million HKD in paid-up capital; this is just the starting price.

At the core is the reserve requirement. The rules set by the Monetary Authority are extremely clear: for every dollar stablecoin you issue, there must be 100% equivalent, high-quality, and highly liquid assets backing it.
These assets cannot be random things; they must be cash, short-term bank deposits, or government bonds, which are considered 'hard currency'.
Moreover, this money must be placed in independent custody accounts, strictly separated from the company's own assets, ensuring that users' funds are absolutely safe.

In addition, you must also accept scrutiny under a magnifying glass. Corporate governance, risk management, and anti-money laundering (AML) systems must be top-notch. Furthermore, you will need to regularly invite independent third-party audit firms to check the accounts, submitting audit reports monthly or quarterly to prove to the public and regulatory bodies that your finances are clean and solid.

Among the three major factions, who has the greater chance of winning?

1. 'Prestigious Factions': Traditional financial giants

Representative players:

Bank of China Hong Kong, Standard Chartered Bank, etc.

The advantages of this faction are almost written on their faces—compliance and trust. Standard Chartered Bank has teamed up with gaming giant Animoca Brands and local telecom operator Hong Kong Telecommunications (HKT) to form a 'cross-industry alliance', ambitious and aspiring.

Winning analysis: Extremely high. The first batch of licenses is likely to lean towards such institutions, prioritizing 'stability' and setting a high standard of compliance for the market.

2. 'Tech New Nobles': Internet and payment giants

Representative players:

JD Coin Chain Technology, Ant Group, Lianlian Digital, etc.

They hold billions of users and possess a vast ecosystem of e-commerce, payment, and supply chain finance.

For them, stablecoins are not an abstract financial product but a 'super tool' that can be immediately integrated into their business, reducing costs and increasing efficiency. For instance, JD Coin Chain Technology focused on solving the pain points of cross-border B2B payments using stablecoins in the Monetary Authority's 'sandbox' testing, aiming to reduce costs by 90% and complete transactions within 10 seconds.
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Winning analysis: High. Especially those institutions that have deeply participated in the Monetary Authority's 'sandbox' testing have already proven their technical strength and business concepts through practical actions, equivalent to 'reserve candidates', with a very high likelihood of obtaining the first batch of licenses. However, there are also views that regulators may take a more cautious stance regarding technology giants entering core financial sectors, possibly preventing them from being too eye-catching in the first batch.

3. 'Local Dark Horses': Innovative forces deeply rooted in Hong Kong

Representative players:

Round Dollar Technology, etc.

Although these players are not as well-known as the first two, they often delve deeply into the Hong Kong local market and have a more profound understanding of local policies. For example, Round Dollar Technology was one of the first institutions to enter the Monetary Authority's 'sandbox' testing, focusing on solving payment and settlement issues in specific areas.

Winning analysis: Moderate. They may not be able to compete head-on with financial and technology giants, but if their business model is innovative enough and risks are controllable, they may well obtain a valuable 'entry ticket' and become a dark horse among the first batch of licenses.

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