k线人生熊猫

Strategy consulting, unlocking positions, directly scan on Binance, ID: 1gy5uyzig

To introduce myself to my followers
Hello everyone, I am Panda, a cryptocurrency trader who started from the desk in my university dormitory. I still remember the first time I came into contact with Bitcoin. With the mindset of "making some pocket money," I invested a few thousand yuan that I had saved up through frugality, only to encounter a bear market crash, which halved my principal. At that moment, I realized that the crypto world is not a casino; money made by luck will eventually be lost through skill.
In the days that followed, I frequented various trading forums, devoured dozens of classic trading books, and spent countless late nights analyzing K-line charts until dawn. I endured the long decline of a bear market and seized the doubling opportunities during a bull market; I fell into the zero trap of meme coins and caught the early dividends of potential hundred-fold coins. From initially blindly following the trend to later developing independent judgment; from the norm of making losses by chasing rises and falls to now having a stable model of low-risk arbitrage + wave profit, every step I have taken is filled with the marks of practical experience.
Compared to the title of "analyst," I prefer to be your nearby pitfall-avoiding big brother. I don't talk about obscure theories, only practical operations that can be directly applied; I don't engage in boasting after the fact, but share real-time position reminders, position management techniques, and trading mindset adjustment methods in the community. Here, there are no promises of "getting rich overnight," only the path of "slowly getting rich." Join my circle, and let’s turn knowledge into reality and experience into tangible profits!
Thank you to every friend who supports me! Your trust and companionship sustain me in the crypto world as I continue to share hardcore insights. From fighting alone to moving forward together, this warmth surpasses everything. May we stay true to ourselves during the bull and bear cycles and reap our own rewards!

Achieved the empty top achievement again, the high position has been in a sideways fluctuation for a long time, it's either selling off or inducing more buying, directly letting the brothers short in, with 10 times leverage, the 10 times profit is plenty for the brothers to enjoy. Continue to lay out on altcoins and mainstream coins during the day, Bera has also led the brothers to short, and currently there is no take profit, continue to hold and look downward, take profit wait for my notification $MYX $BERA $PIPPIN #黄金白银反弹 #易理华割肉清仓 #比特币挖矿难度下降

Today's homework is also difficult to write. The current market has some polarization. From the non-farm payroll data released today, the economic situation is better than expected. Although this reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve rapidly cutting interest rates, it also indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, and distances the U.S. from a recession. However, the U.S. stock market still shows signs of pulling back, likely because some investors believe that interest rate cuts are a long way off.
But from my personal perspective, the relationship between interest rate cuts and data is not very significant right now. We've talked about this many times; since Trump asked for Powell to come into office, it's been one thing: cut interest rates. If the economic data is good, cutting rates is warranted; if the economic data is bad, cutting rates is even more justified; if inflation is falling, rates should be cut; if inflation is rising, well, cut rates first and talk later. This is Trump's most straightforward demand.
Therefore, how the Federal Reserve speaks and acts after June is, I believe, more significant, and prior to that, the impact should be limited. Thus, we can see that the U.S. stock market has shown slight fluctuations, swinging between increases and decreases, while cryptocurrencies are suffering. Bitcoin has fallen below $66,000 again today.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, we've discussed a lot today. Although ETFs have shown buying activity, and both high-net-worth individuals and retail investors have shown signs of buying, the price of BTC is still declining. More of this is influenced by sentiment and liquidity, giving the feeling that a bear market is really approaching. Dispersed buying cannot offset concentrated selling. In fact, from the data, the selling is not excessive.
However, it feels like much of the buying is passive. For example, I have set my position around $60,000, rather than directly buying spot now. So, although I have provided a slight purchasing power, at most it just slows down the decline and does not contribute to any price increase. This may be the reason why the data looks good, but the price remains unfavorable. $ETH $BTC $SOL #CZ币安广场AMA #非农意外强劲 #易理华割肉清仓

Although the net inflow data for BTC is not as good, ETH has indeed experienced net inflows for two consecutive working days. As I mentioned earlier, I cannot be sure if this indicates that traditional investors are starting to buy the dip; we need to observe for a bit longer. However, from the average cost of BTC and ETH ETFs, both are currently at a loss, so starting to build a position at this level may not be wrong.
Next, we need to look at more data to confirm, but if traditional investors continue to buy in, although it may not significantly help the spot price, it will provide good support for sentiment. $ETH $BTC $SOL #非农意外强劲 #CZ币安广场AMA #美国众议院终止特朗普加拿大关税

Reality exceeded my expectations. I thought that after BTC dropped below 70,000 USD again, ETF investors would continue to sell off, but unexpectedly, there have been three consecutive working days of net inflow. My current feeling is that there are traditional investors bottom-fishing. Whether this is correct is still unknown; on one hand, the buying volume is not very high, and on the other hand, it has only been three working days. Let's see over a longer period, especially this week.
From a God’s-eye view, today’s non-farm data, while good for the economy, is not very friendly for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. However, the market has not completely bet on Walsh's influence on the Federal Reserve. From my personal perspective, the benefits for the economy outweigh the demand for rate cuts. If this is correct, today’s ETF should continue to see net inflows.
Although the price of Bitcoin is falling. $ETH $BTC $SOL #非农意外强劲 #美国零售数据逊预期 #美国科技基金净流

The recently released non-farm payroll data is still quite good, although I feel that the significance of the data in recent months has diminished, but the data can still drive changes in the short-term market.
In today's non-farm report, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, and non-farm employment significantly exceeded both the previous value and expectations. These two pieces of data indicate that the U.S. economy is improving, although it may reduce the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates. However, for the current market, economic stability is more important; lowering interest rates is Trump's job.
Secondly, both the annual and monthly wage rates are rising, which is also a strong signal of economic resilience. As workers' earnings increase, their purchasing power will also rise. Therefore, this data is quite helpful for the stability of the U.S. economy.
As for interest rate cuts, the market's focus is not necessarily on the data, but on Trump and his appointed Federal Reserve chairman. $ETH $BTC $SOL #非农意外强劲 #美国科技基金净流

Today's homework is relatively easy to write. It feels like the market is quite calm. Recently, I haven't been very keen on macro data, mainly because all the data right now may not determine the Federal Reserve's monetary policy after June. If Waller is Trump's spokesperson, then whether the data is good or bad will not change the direction of interest rate cuts. However, if Waller takes office and becomes the second Powell, 2026 may be a bit tougher, but the probability of risks emerging in the U.S. will decrease in the future.
So I personally think that all the data right now is not the most important. The most important thing is how many 'nails' Trump can embed within the Federal Reserve and how much 'weight' the Federal Reserve Chair can have. Currently, the most interesting scenario I can think of is Waller leading a few other board members to advocate for easing, while the majority of board members insist on looking at the data. However, some colleagues say that the Federal Reserve Chair's decision on interest rates is even more important. I'm waiting to see.
The first half of the year might not be easy in the market. Before the Federal Reserve Chair takes office, Trump's tariffs should be predictable in terms of their impact on the market. I guess we will have to wait until after the New Year to discuss this further.
Looking at the data for Bitcoin, although it appears that there is a significant reduction, the turnover is not actually that high; one could even say it's a normal state. Moreover, it is clear that the main force behind the turnover is short-term investors. In fact, many colleagues can anticipate that the price of BTC will rise in the future, so the more they lose, the less willing they are to sell. However, everyone is waiting for lower prices, and the lack of liquidity has resulted in insufficient purchasing power.
From the chip structure perspective, it can be intuitively observed that the changes in chips on both sides of the URPD are not significant. Most investors are still watching, but panic has increased the selling by short-term investors. What the market is mainly lacking now is confidence. $ETH $BTC $SOL #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹 #美国零售数据逊预期

A long position taken on Friday, it's been almost a week, and I haven't closed at the peak. Now there is a profit of 6 times. Let's take the profit. It's not only mainstream that can be traded for the medium to long term; even the clones can be ambushed in advance $PIPPIN $COLLECT $POWER #美国科技基金净流 #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹

When I saw the BTC data, I was wondering if the ETH data would be slightly better, and the conclusion is certainly yes. Indeed, the ETH data has also turned into net inflows, although it is still very low. Similar to Bitcoin, there is a small portion of investors who believe that now is a good time to build positions. However, just like Bitcoin, BlackRock's investors are selling, while the buyers are those Fidelity investors who prefer to chase the highs and cut losses.
Today, I also obtained data from Bloomberg showing that the average cost for investors in the ETH spot ETF is around $3,500. Therefore, with the current spot price, almost all investors are at a loss, deciding whether to cut losses or continue to wait. Most investors have chosen the latter, so although buying power is very weak, the selling pressure is not coming from the spot ETF. $ETH $BTC $SOL #美国伊朗对峙 #美国零售数据逊预期 #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹

Although market sentiment is poor, the spot ETF has rarely shown an optimistic state. Apart from BlackRock investors who have seen outflows of less than 300 BTC, other institutions have basically experienced net inflows. Although the amounts are not large, this indicates that some investors believe that the price of Bitcoin has bottomed out, and it may now be a good time to build positions.
However, from an overall trend perspective, cryptocurrencies still have not attracted the attention of traditional investors. Although the overall sell-off volume is not very large, there has not been a significant and continuous buying interest for a long time, and the liquidity of cryptocurrencies is still greatly constrained. $ETH $BTC $SOL #美国零售数据逊预期 #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹 #美国科技基金净流

BTC has now fallen more than -50% from its historical peak.
While in previous upward trends, most sell-offs had some short-term narrative as a backdrop, there isn't a major topic to explain this relative weakness now. Simply put, there are more sellers than buyers (which has always been the case).
This makes buying more difficult, and market sentiment is therefore worse. If there were any positive outlooks, people would find it easier to overlook a correction, but investors currently find it hard to find such hope. However, we all know that the best reason for people to buy back in is when the numbers start to rise again at some point.
Patience is key, which is why I choose to take it slow, ensuring I am prepared for any situation while gradually accumulating at the lows as much as possible. $ETH $BTC $SOL #美国零售数据逊预期 #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹

Take profit, take profit, not holding anymore. In the evening, I see there is still space above, and funds have been continuously flowing in. I notified to chase a bit more around 0.29 and took profit around 0.35, approaching 4 times the profit, waiting for the panda notification to short $POWER $FHE $PIPPIN #美国零售数据逊预期 #美国科技基金净流 # Yi Lihua cut losses and cleared out.

Brothers, the short position has a 17x profit, continue to see around 0.2 near $LA

Monday is not very peaceful. Both Japan and China have some influence on the U.S. economy. Just after Takashi Sato's victory, China started to reduce its exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds. Although the risk market is somewhat turbulent, it doesn't seem to have a big impact. The U.S. stock market shifted from a low opening to an increase, bringing BTC back above $70,000. Currently, the market sentiment is still relatively healthy.
This decline does not yet have a clear reason, and we still need to look at more data. However, the U.S. stock market remains resilient. Although cryptocurrencies can synchronize with the U.S. stock market, especially tech stocks, they do so at different frequencies. Due to liquidity reasons, the previous sharper declines and steeper increases have now turned into sharper declines and weaker recoveries.
The S&P 500 is almost back to a new high, while Bitcoin has dropped 40%. To get out of this situation, there needs to be either stronger stimulus for the cryptocurrency industry or a recovery in liquidity. Of course, if the market expects a return of liquidity, it would also be good for cryptocurrencies, such as significant interest rate cuts.
Looking at Bitcoin's data, today's trading volume is not very high. Investor sentiment is still quite suppressed. Although there was some fluctuation during the day, it did not generate panic. The psychological construction of cryptocurrency investors remains very strong. Currently, the trading volume is still dominated by short-term investors, and earlier investors have not made significant moves.
The chip structure is also very stable, which is the biggest difference in this round. If early investors with losses participated in trading like before, it is estimated that the price of $60,000 wouldn't hold. However, it currently feels quite healthy. $ETH $BTC $SOL #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹

On Friday, the Panda Observation saw funds escaping on-chain, directly leading the brothers to short PROVE, which is considered a top short. Currently, they have made nearly 15 times the profit and can take profits now, brothers $PROVE $ETH $BTC #美国伊朗对峙 #Bitcoin谷歌搜索量暴升 #何时抄底？

BTC has returned to the lower range of the rainbow/reversion trend chart.
Generally speaking, bear markets tend to linger here most of the time. The last cycle even briefly fell below this range.
Please remember that this channel has been adjusted before to better fit in the later stages.
I feel that as the cycles become slower, charts like this will become harder to track. This situation has persisted for a while. $ETH $BTC $SOL #加密市场反弹 #何时抄底？ #美国伊朗对峙

Finally, I can have a good weekend. When I saw the price of BTC this morning, I almost put everything down and rested for a day. Although there were some price fluctuations over the weekend, this is normal, as liquidity is relatively low. The current focus is on the performance of U.S. stocks after next Monday. I hope that next week we can return to the main theme of tariffs and monetary policy. The drop on February 5th really hurt the vitality of cryptocurrencies; it's not just about liquidations, but more about the confusion regarding Bitcoin itself. I was chatting with friends today and mentioned that the four-year cycle still exists. When we think that the U.S. government and institutions have started buying, Bitcoin can still drop by 50% in a short time. Four years ago, in 2022, it also fell apart. The lowest point of BTC in 2022 was after the sacrifice of FTX. I hope that in 2026, this will be the lowest point. Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate over the weekend has begun to decline. Although it hasn't returned to normal yet, there has been a significant decrease, indicating that investor sentiment is gradually easing. However, it is indeed hard to say that the upcoming trend will be smooth sailing. Trump's tariffs and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy still have many uncertainties. For me personally, the only thing to look forward to is the mid-term elections in 2026. From the data on chip structure, the current stability is still quite good. Although the continuous decline has caused BTC to fall below two support levels, it is rare that the first two support levels are still very strong and have not shown signs of collapse. This indicates that earlier investors are not sensitive to short-term prices and continue to focus on long-term holding. $ETH $BTC $SOL #加密市场反弹 #美国伊朗对峙 #Bitcoin谷歌搜索量暴升

Thursday should be one of the most painful days in cryptocurrency history, when investors' confidence almost completely collapsed. Not only is the cryptocurrency sector wailing, but even traditional media is reporting on the significant liquidation in cryptocurrency. If nothing unexpected happens, $60,000 should be the bottom this time. Both from a data perspective and from the ETF perspective, the panic among investors seems to have mostly released, and the sentiment for bottom-fishing at the $60,000 price has significantly increased. The most important aspect of this decline is that there has not been any actual negative data, including for U.S. stocks. From my personal perspective, the repeated breaches of historical lows in institutional and fund manager cash should be the main reason. As passive positions are released and prices decline, bottom-fishing should start again. Currently, the main contradiction in the market is still between Trump and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the price changes have made the market feel like a roller coaster. Friday's counterattack made this weekend a bit simpler; otherwise, I was worried that the low liquidity over the weekend would cause the price to further expand its fluctuations. Currently, after $BTC rebounded back to $70,000, market sentiment has eased somewhat. The biggest difference this time is that the distribution of chips has not experienced a cliff-like change; even earlier losing investors have not reacted too much to this decline. More BTC holders are not very interested in short-term price fluctuations, even when it nearly dropped below $60,000. $ETH $BTC $SOL #何时抄底？ #全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产 #加密市场回调 #BTC何时反弹？

Compared to the outflow of $BTC , the outflow of $ETH on Thursday was somewhat restrained. This may be related to the fact that all institutions are losing money on ETH. In the past 24 hours, the ETH spot ETF institutions across the United States have sold a total of 11,685 ETH, which is already considered very low. Therefore, the ETF sell-off is not the reason for the decline in ETH prices; this volume is not enough to make a splash.
Among them, BlackRock and Fidelity are the main sellers, and their figures are only in the four digits, significantly less than Wednesday's sell-off. It is estimated that BTC and ETH prices were already at their bottom, and investors' interest in selling has diminished significantly. #何时抄底？ #全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产 #小非农数据不及预期