Today's homework is also difficult to write. The current market has some polarization. From the non-farm payroll data released today, the economic situation is better than expected. Although this reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve rapidly cutting interest rates, it also indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, and distances the U.S. from a recession. However, the U.S. stock market still shows signs of pulling back, likely because some investors believe that interest rate cuts are a long way off.

But from my personal perspective, the relationship between interest rate cuts and data is not very significant right now. We've talked about this many times; since Trump asked for Powell to come into office, it's been one thing: cut interest rates. If the economic data is good, cutting rates is warranted; if the economic data is bad, cutting rates is even more justified; if inflation is falling, rates should be cut; if inflation is rising, well, cut rates first and talk later. This is Trump's most straightforward demand.

Therefore, how the Federal Reserve speaks and acts after June is, I believe, more significant, and prior to that, the impact should be limited. Thus, we can see that the U.S. stock market has shown slight fluctuations, swinging between increases and decreases, while cryptocurrencies are suffering. Bitcoin has fallen below $66,000 again today.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, we've discussed a lot today. Although ETFs have shown buying activity, and both high-net-worth individuals and retail investors have shown signs of buying, the price of BTC is still declining. More of this is influenced by sentiment and liquidity, giving the feeling that a bear market is really approaching. Dispersed buying cannot offset concentrated selling. In fact, from the data, the selling is not excessive.

However, it feels like much of the buying is passive. For example, I have set my position around $60,000, rather than directly buying spot now. So, although I have provided a slight purchasing power, at most it just slows down the decline and does not contribute to any price increase. This may be the reason why the data looks good, but the price remains unfavorable. $ETH $BTC $SOL #CZ币安广场AMA #非农意外强劲 #易理华割肉清仓