Today's homework is relatively easy to write. It feels like the market is quite calm. Recently, I haven't been very keen on macro data, mainly because all the data right now may not determine the Federal Reserve's monetary policy after June. If Waller is Trump's spokesperson, then whether the data is good or bad will not change the direction of interest rate cuts. However, if Waller takes office and becomes the second Powell, 2026 may be a bit tougher, but the probability of risks emerging in the U.S. will decrease in the future.

So I personally think that all the data right now is not the most important. The most important thing is how many 'nails' Trump can embed within the Federal Reserve and how much 'weight' the Federal Reserve Chair can have. Currently, the most interesting scenario I can think of is Waller leading a few other board members to advocate for easing, while the majority of board members insist on looking at the data. However, some colleagues say that the Federal Reserve Chair's decision on interest rates is even more important. I'm waiting to see.

The first half of the year might not be easy in the market. Before the Federal Reserve Chair takes office, Trump's tariffs should be predictable in terms of their impact on the market. I guess we will have to wait until after the New Year to discuss this further.

Looking at the data for Bitcoin, although it appears that there is a significant reduction, the turnover is not actually that high; one could even say it's a normal state. Moreover, it is clear that the main force behind the turnover is short-term investors. In fact, many colleagues can anticipate that the price of BTC will rise in the future, so the more they lose, the less willing they are to sell. However, everyone is waiting for lower prices, and the lack of liquidity has resulted in insufficient purchasing power.

From the chip structure perspective, it can be intuitively observed that the changes in chips on both sides of the URPD are not significant. Most investors are still watching, but panic has increased the selling by short-term investors. What the market is mainly lacking now is confidence. $ETH $BTC $SOL #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹 #美国零售数据逊预期