一转眼就长大

February 12 Review: Some Thoughts on the Next Day's Trends of LEO Holdings, Dawai Technology, Zhangyue Technology, Tefa Information, and Capital Online!
1. LEO Holdings (Liquid Cooling + AI Applications)
The liquid cooling sector received positive news in the morning, and the entire sector showed a very strong performance after the market opened, with LEO, which had been in a continuous pullback, showing significant upward movement in the morning. However, after reaching a peak, it clearly fell back, as it had rarely followed the liquid cooling sector before. After that, it entered a long period of high horizontal consolidation, and in the afternoon, there was a strong influx of funds driving the price up, with the sealing funds at one point reaching 4.3 billion. Ultimately, it formed a bottom reversal limit-up pattern!
The post-market leaderboard shows buying from well-known speculative positions such as Wanhao Shijia, Zhongtai Hubei Branch, Foshan Series, and Zhichun Road, while the overall selling pressure is not significant. This leaderboard is very eye-catching. Moreover, LEO tends to perform well each time it starts moving, so its popularity skyrockets after each limit-up. Today marks its first board after a continuous pullback, which is likely to lead to sustained movement in sentiment. However, the current market sentiment for consecutive boards is relatively poor, and the sustainability of the sector is in question, so the probability of LEO achieving consecutive boards the next day is actually not high, unless the market's short-term sentiment warms up, and the liquid cooling or AI sectors show sustained strong performance!
2. Dawai Technology (Cloud Computing)
Youke's price increase continues to show strong performance in the computing direction, so Dawai's morning auction has continued to strengthen, with a morning opening limit order still at 2.3 billion, even surpassing Zhangyue, making its continued strong status unquestionable. Under its strong influence, the entire computing sector continues to show a very strong sector performance!
The post-market leaderboard shows the 3-day leaderboard. Looking at yesterday's leaderboard, the quant fund on Taihua Road purchased 90 million, while Jiangsu Road and Siming South Road also made purchases, with overall selling pressure not significant. Compared to yesterday, there was some divergence, and today's performance of Dawai is stronger. The probability of a limit-up in the next day's auction is almost certain, but recently, a five-board limit is a hurdle. Today, the four consecutive boards surely face competition, with these four stocks representing three market directions, leading to competition the next day. In terms of intensity, Dawai is the strongest today, occupying a psychological advantage in sentiment, and since there are relatively more computing stocks in the back row, the probability of advancement is high. Therefore, the next day, it is more about paying attention to the divergence buy points on the board, as it is obviously the leading stock in the sector. In cases of sentiment divergence, there will be enough funds to support it, especially if the auction can open limit-up!
3. Zhangyue Technology (AI Comics)
Zhangyue's auction continues to show strong limit-up performance. Although the opening limit order is less than yesterday, the determination of strong capital to buy is very strong, and under the influence of negative feedback on Bona's sentiment, it did not break, ultimately still achieving a strong limit-up!
Zhangyue has already achieved four consecutive limit-ups, a performance that has occurred in the past with brain-machine interface innovations. Although it is a limit-up today, as long as it is queued overnight, the probability of getting filled is very high, and the transaction volume of 400 million continues to increase. The next day, there is no doubt that it will open up, but in terms of sentiment, AI comics have adjusted significantly for two consecutive days, and the probability of the sector recovering the next day is very high, so after Zhangyue opens up, the support will be very strong. After all, it is the absolute leader in this direction, making it the best choice for market leaders. Moreover, with the Spring Festival approaching, the market for AI comics before and after the Spring Festival is highly probable. As the strongest stock on the main board, the probability of moving to a turnover board is very high. Therefore, although its limit-up strength today is not as strong as Dawai, in terms of theme strength, Zhangyue may have an advantage!
4. Tefa Information (Computing)
Tefa's auction also opened limit-up, but after the opening, there was a clear capital sell-off to cash in. Although there was obvious support during the decline, there was never any capital to return to seal the board until 10 o'clock, when strong support finally came back to seal, ultimately forming a high-volume T-board limit-up!
The post-market leaderboard shows that institutions are clearly doing T. The quant fund on Taihua Road has also started doing T, so in terms of sentiment, although a large volume was released today, the overall buying funds have not changed. From yesterday's three-day leaderboard, many of the speculative funds that entered earlier have not fully cashed out. The probability of the pattern is still relatively high. After all, Dawai's strong limit-up is helpful for it. However, in terms of sentiment, Tefa is just a second-tier stock. It's hard to break out due to the position pressure. After all, Dawai has already achieved four boards, and the recognition is not comparable to a second board. Such positional pressure usually doesn't change easily, so it is also difficult for Tefa to achieve a limit-up while Dawai faces a gap. For Tefa, the response to Dawai's opening is key. Many funds like to see A buying B. If Dawai doesn't give opportunities and the sector sentiment remains, Tefa is the best choice for funds. Whether Tefa can break out the next day depends on whether Dawai can continue to show limit-up sentiment, and whether the overall strength of computing can continue is also a major focus. After all, once the sector has significant divergence, it could lead to disastrous situations similar to AI comics and Bona!
5. Capital Online (Cloud Computing)
Youke's price increase and Zhipu's increase in GLM prices clearly boost the entire cloud computing sector, enabling Dawai to achieve a stronger limit-up. Hong Kong stock Zhipu also rose sharply, and Capital followed suit with a strong performance after a high opening, sealing the board while Zhipu continued to rise sharply in the afternoon, ultimately forming a clear strong breakout limit-up!
The post-market leaderboard shows Fang Xinxia buying 150 million, Yulan Road 70 million, and the quant funds on Taihua Road and Shanghai Lujiazui also making purchases. The selling side includes Shou Tsing Hsin and Jinkang Road taking profits, with two institutions doing T. This leaderboard is still very good overall. Today's performance of Capital completely mirrors Hong Kong's Zhipu, so whether Hong Kong's Zhipu can have sustained performance in the next day's opening can serve as a reference for this stock. In terms of sentiment, it's actually quite hard to achieve consecutive limit-ups recently. Capital, based on its performance, should find it difficult to achieve consecutive limit-ups. However, based on Zhipu's recent strong performance, Capital's trend can still be a focus. Perhaps after a gap the next day, there will be a trend market!
This article is for sharing and communication only, and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market has risks, and investment requires caution!

Tomorrow is Friday's opening, urgent reminder to 250 million stock investors! Just now, two major heavy news broke in the A-shares market, no nonsense, straight to the point:
1. Seedance 2.0 is booming overseas! Musk lamented the rapid development speed, and a U.S. director stated it may disrupt Hollywood.
Interpretation: Our country already has strong global competitiveness in the application of artificial intelligence, especially ByteDance, which started with short videos, has been heavily investing in the AI + short video field for a long time. The launch of Seedance is not surprising. It will further accelerate the innovation breakthroughs in the new round of AI applications in the domestic market. Currently, the growth of internet users is nearing saturation, and in a market of existing competition, whoever occupies the AI track first can gain the first-mover advantage.
If new AI products exceed expectations during the Spring Festival, there is a high probability that the direction of AI applications will usher in a wave of thematic speculation after the holiday, especially in software related to film and television production. However, this may not necessarily be good news for traditional film and television companies, as AI tools will significantly break industry barriers, and even Hollywood may be affected.
2. The internet information department strictly rectifies false information that is not marked as AI.
Interpretation: Seedance 2.0 has greatly lowered the threshold for AI video generation, and low-cost production has also provided opportunities for illegal elements. Some creators maliciously generate AI "real person videos" in bulk for traffic, triggering a lot of negative public sentiment.
As the Clear Action progresses, the ecosystem of short video platforms will return to a healthy and orderly state, which is a positive benefit for legitimate short video production and AI content tool listed companies.
3. Market interpretation and tomorrow's trend
Today, the market has three key signals:
First, the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a dark cross star, but the index slightly rose, showing overall fluctuations;
Second, the ChiNext Index closed with a small positive line, significantly stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating that funds prefer innovative blue chips;
Third, all three major indices closed higher, but the individual stock earning effect is generally average. In the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets, 2108 stocks rose and 3280 stocks fell, still showing more declines than increases.
Tomorrow is the last trading day before the holiday, and the overall news is stable. The Shanghai Composite Index is likely to close with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows.
Before the holiday, the main funds usually do not create too good a profit effect to avoid excessive fermentation of holiday emotions, leading to disorderly thematic speculation after the holiday, affecting the long-term slow bull pattern of A-shares.
In terms of operations, I mainly hold my stocks steady, with small positions allowing for appropriate high selling and low buying, and prepare calmly for the New Year.

Iran this time is likely to have truly learned Eastern wisdom, as the US military aims to flex its muscles in the Persian Gulf. However, it discovers that Iran's new Khorramshahr-4 missile can strike any city within a 2000-kilometer range, with a 1.5-ton warhead that could cause devastating effects over several kilometers in a city.

In the past, the US military loved to send aircraft carriers into the Persian Gulf, treating that body of water as their own backyard, frequently conducting freedom of navigation operations to pressure Iran into submission.

Iran is actually very clear about its situation, knowing that arguing with these armed-to-the-teeth bandits is akin to playing the lute to a cow. Only when they possess something that can genuinely hurt them will the other side sit down and listen.

As soon as the Khorramshahr-4 missile made its appearance, the situation changed immediately. This thing is not just for show; its range of 2000 kilometers directly encircles all US military bases in the Middle East.

A 1.5-ton warhead dropped on any city would strip it bare. This kind of destructive power has made those countries that previously thought of Iran as a soft target reconsider the consequences.

The previous arrogance of Americans was largely due to the belief that they could not be hit, with aircraft carriers hovering in the distance and planes flying overhead, while Iran could not gain air superiority and could only stare helplessly.

Now, the Khorramshahr-4 missile has erased that distance advantage. No matter where your aircraft carrier is stationed, as long as you are within this range, Iran can hit you at any time.

Since this missile can carry a 1.5-ton warhead, it indicates that its size and thrust are quite impressive, and its penetration capability is certainly not weak. If the opponent wants to intercept, the cost is much higher than launching this missile.

Iran has not been idle in recent years. Watching how others conduct anti-access strategies, it has been thinking about how to seal off its territory in the Persian Gulf.

If the US military now wants to flex its muscles again, it must first calculate the risks. In the past, the barefoot were not afraid of the shoe-wearers; now, the one with shoes is holding a heavy brick, and anyone daring to provoke must weigh the consequences.

The Khorramshahr-4 missile is Iran's hardest brick, simply placed there without the need for actual combat, and its deterrent power has already overflowed.

The international community has always looked at strength; if you have no power, people will criticize you; if you hold a card that can overturn the table, everyone speaks more politely.

Iran's display of strength this time is to inform those malicious forces that the Persian Gulf is not a place where anyone can run wild; if pushed too hard, no one will have a good time.

Once this strategic deterrence is established, future negotiations will see Iran standing tall. Areas where it might have previously had to compromise can now be firmly upheld.

The US military bases in the Persian Gulf are likely now sleeping uneasily, as who knows when such a huge thing might fall from above, and whether their air defense systems can intercept it remains uncertain.

The emergence of the Khorramshahr-4 missile has completely changed the offensive and defensive balance in the region. It was previously one-sided oppression; now it has turned into mutual assured destruction.

Once this balance is established, no one dares to act lightly because the cost of doing so is too high, too high for anyone to bear the consequences.

Iran has mastered the essence of a great Eastern power's ability to defend its home, not seeking war but not fearing it. As long as it has food in hand, it is not anxious, and as long as it can hold the red line, peace will naturally follow.

Those countries that think they can extort Iranian interests through military intimidation now have to reassess the risks. After all, no one wants to sacrifice their own cities for a bit of face.

This tactic of using force to stop conflict is indeed brilliant, eliminating potential conflicts in their infancy because the opponent knows they cannot bear the consequences of provocation.

The days of the US military flexing its muscles in the Persian Gulf are likely gone forever; this waterway has now become a genuinely dangerous no-go zone.

With this missile, Iran has essentially put on a bulletproof vest while simultaneously hanging a sword of Damocles over its opponents.

This kind of strategic determination is what truly matters in the great power game—unfazed by the opponent's bluster and steadily enhancing its own hard power.

The Khorramshahr-4 missile is not just a weapon; it is also a declaration from Iran to the world about who the real owner here is.

In the future, anyone who casually considers sanctions or blockades should first look at the 2000-kilometer range map and see if their territory is within the danger zone.

This is the charm of strength; it doesn't need much discussion. By revealing its own capabilities, all the noise naturally disappears, and peace follows.

Today's Hot Sectors (2.12)
The power sector fluctuated and rose: Jin Control Power reached the daily limit, YN Energy Holdings had consecutive gains, and Mindong Power, YN Energy, Can Energy, Gan Energy, and Fuling Power followed suit.
(Recently, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Power Market System," aiming to establish a national unified power market system by 2030, where all types of power sources and electricity users, except for guaranteed users, will directly participate in the power market, with market-based transactions accounting for 70% of total electricity consumption.)
The supercapacitor sector strengthened: Dongyangguang reached the daily limit, Megmeet, Fenghua Hi-Tech, Jianghai Co., China West Electric, and Zhongtian Technology followed suit.
(The spot price of MLCC in South Korea has increased by nearly 20%, and the industry expects high-end MLCC prices to continue rising due to AI demand.)
The semiconductor sector continued to strengthen: Oulai New Materials reached the daily limit, Jingchen Co. rose over 13%, and Changguang Huaxin, Juguang Technology, Zhongying Electronics, Jiangfeng Electronics, and Hongwei Technology followed suit.
AI application concept: Lio Co. and Zhenghe Ecological reached the daily limit, Kunlun Wanwei rose over 10%, and Lanse Guangbiao, Wanxing Technology, Keyuan Wisdom, Guangyun Technology, and Zhewen Huli followed suit.
(On February 12, 2026, at midnight, Zhipu released the new generation flagship model GLM-5, which is currently launched overseas.)
The computing power leasing concept continued to be strong in the morning: Dawi Technology had 4 consecutive gains, Meili Cloud had 3 gains in 2 days, Youkede, and Capital Online reached the daily limit, while Dongfang Guoxin, Qingyun Technology, Parallel Technology, and Litong Electronics followed suit.
(On February 11, 2026, Youkede announced that due to intensified fluctuations in the global supply chain and significant increases in the costs of core hardware procurement and other infrastructure, it was decided to implement price adjustments for all renewed and new users' cloud products and services starting from March 1, 2026.)
The computing chip concept rose in the afternoon: Xinyuan Co. rose over 10%, AoJie Technology, Fudan Microelectronics, Yuntian Lifei, Lexin Technology, Cambrian, and Haiguang Information followed suit.
(The "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reporter learned that at midnight on February 12, Zhipu released the new generation flagship model GLM-5, which has completed deep reasoning adaptation and operator-level optimization with mainstream domestic chip platforms such as Huawei Ascend, Moore Threads, Cambrian, Kunlun Core, Muxi, Suiyuan, and Haiguang, achieving stable operation with high throughput and low latency on domestic computing power clusters.)
Data center concept: Chuanrun Co., Yingwei Co., Xinlei Co., Capital Online, Dawi Technology, Dayuan Pump Industry, Shuangliang Energy Saving, Shun Sodium Co., Dongyangguang, and Zhongheng Electric.
Liquid cooling server concept: Chuanrun Co., Dayuan Pump Industry, Yingwei Co., Youkede W, Yimikang, Ningbo Jingda, Lio Co., Bojie Co., and Keshida.
Robot concept saw a surge: Rifa Precision Machinery, Titan Co., Bohai Auto, Chuanrun Co., Dongyangguang, Bojie Co., and Changhua Group reached the daily limit. Jingzhuan Technology rose over 17%, Yimikang rose over 11%, Huayi Technology, Zhongyuan Neipei, Weike Technology, Xinpengwei, Taihao Technology, Senyuan Electric, and Fenghua Hi-Tech rose over 7%.
Gas turbine concept: Longda Co. rose over 10%, Triangle Defense, Yingliu Co., Jereh Co., Liande Co., Dongfang Electric, and Hangfa Power followed suit.
(The surge in data center construction in the United States has triggered an electricity shortage. Global energy monitoring agencies' tracking data for global oil and gas plants show that as of January 2026, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation under construction in the United States exceeded 29 GW, doubling within a year.)
Rare earth permanent magnet concept has been repeatedly active: Longci Technology rose over 13%, China Rare Earth, Jiuling Technology, Zhongke Magnetic Industry, Dadi Bear, Wanlang Magnetic Plastic, Galaxy Magnet, and Jinli Permanent Magnet followed suit.
(The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide continues to rise, reaching 800,000 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 9.9% and a month-on-month increase of 28.8%.)
Non-ferrous metal tungsten concept is active: Xianglu Tungsten Industry had 3 gains in 5 days, and Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry had 2 consecutive gains.
Target material concept continued to strengthen: Oulai New Materials reached the daily limit, Jiangfeng Electronics rose nearly 10%, and Ashi Chuang, Longhua Technology, and Yuyan New Materials followed suit.
(The prices of key materials for the global semiconductor industry, sputtering target materials, are expected to be generally increased by 20%-30% in the first quarter of 2026, involving categories such as aluminum, copper, high-end tantalum targets, and titanium targets.)

Attention! Judging whether the main force is consolidating is a topic that most retail investors find difficult to understand, especially those short-term traders. Today I will share four types of intraday chart consolidation patterns with you. It can be said that intraday chart consolidation is quite important in the overall market observation. I suggest you take a serious look at it.
As usual, please like, bookmark, or comment 888 to support me. I share stock trading insights every day to prevent you from not being able to find them later for review.
1. Morning surge and pullback
After the market opens in the morning, the stock price quickly rises, with an increase of about 7, but it does not reach the daily limit. Subsequently, the stock price begins to freely pull back, and during the entire decline, the trading volume decreases. By the time of closing, there is no turn to red, either staying at half the increase or above the zero axis. In fact, this is the main force accumulating and consolidating, and the increase in volume is actually to observe the selling pressure above.
2. Limit-up breakout
After a quick rise in the morning, the stock price rapidly hits the daily limit, then the stock experiences a breakout pullback. The pullback will not be significant, followed by another surge to hit the daily limit again, resulting in limit-up, breakout pullback, stabilization, and continued rise to the daily limit. The stock price pulls back during the breakout, but the limit is very firm. The breakout does not collapse in rhythm.
3. Increased volume above the average price line, decreased volume below the average price line
The stock price remains in a horizontal range, where in the intraday chart, the stock price is above the average price line, and the trading volume shows a significant increase. Conversely, when the stock price is below the average price line, the trading volume will significantly decrease. This is a typical main force accumulation and consolidation, where decreased volume indicates that no one in the market is willing to sell.
4. Step-up consolidation
This pattern has been shared by me before. In the intraday chart, it is evident that the stock price does not directly surge after the opening, but rather pulls up a wave after the opening, then enters a horizontal consolidation, and continues to rise. The horizontal consolidation resembles a staircase, where the highs keep rising and the lows also keep rising. This main force is conservative, and the horizontal consolidation represents short-term consolidation.
Alright! The above are the four types of intraday consolidation patterns. I have prepared case images below, and I suggest you memorize these patterns. I hope it inspires everyone and serves as the most basic content that must be thoroughly understood. See you in the next issue.

It's all the fault of China for not 'buying in'! It's truly unprecedented; in early 2026, companies like Texas Instruments and Intel drastically reduced prices, with some chip products plummeting from $90 to $10 overnight. American media couldn't sit still, and they pointed fingers at the 'culprit': the collective withdrawal of Chinese buyers, leading to excessive inventory for American companies.

The significant price cuts by American companies like Texas Instruments and Intel in early 2026 can be attributed to the collective withdrawal of Chinese buyers.

While the drop in chip prices from $90 to $10 may seem exaggerated, it is actually the culmination of a long-term imbalance between supply and demand in the market.

American media directed their blame towards Chinese buyers; although this perspective may seem one-sided, it actually hits the key point, as China was once the largest chip consumption market in the world. Changes in demand in the Chinese market directly affect the global chip industry landscape.

The reason Chinese buyers can decisively withdraw is fundamentally due to the rapid improvement in domestic chip substitution capabilities.

In recent years, the domestic chip industry has continuously broken through in areas such as design, manufacturing, and packaging, with the localization rate steadily climbing from memory chips to general-purpose GPUs, and from EDA tools to semiconductor materials.

Previously reliant on imports, mid- to low-end chips are now stably supplied by domestic companies, with quality and performance fully meeting downstream demand.

As domestic chip capacity utilization rises to a high of 90%, downstream manufacturers naturally prioritize choosing more cost-effective local products, reducing their procurement of American chips.

This substitution is not a short-term behavior but an inevitable result of industrial upgrading, a normal market choice after years of technological accumulation in the Chinese chip industry.

The misjudgment and capacity mismatch of American companies have also exacerbated inventory pressure.

Against the backdrop of an explosive demand for AI computing power, global chip capacity has tilted towards high-end AI chips, yet companies like Texas Instruments and Intel maintain large-scale production of traditional general-purpose chips.

Previously relying on the enormous demand from the Chinese market, they blindly expanded capacity, ignoring the changes in demand structure in the Chinese market and the speed of domestic substitution.

When Chinese buyers shifted to domestic chips, the traditional chip capacity of these American companies instantly became excessive, highlighting the issue of inventory backlog.

Data shows that global 8-inch wafer capacity shrank in 2026, while American companies failed to adjust their product structure in time, resulting in a large number of traditional chips unable to find a market, forcing them to drastically cut prices to clear inventory.

The U.S. chip export restriction policy has also indirectly prompted the withdrawal of Chinese buyers.

Previously, in an effort to curb China's technological development, the U.S. imposed strict export controls on high-end chips. Even when some chips were conditionally released later, many restrictive terms were added.

This erratic policy made Chinese companies realize that excessive reliance on American chips poses significant supply chain risks.

To ensure industrial security, Chinese companies accelerated their pace of independent research and development and domestic substitution, fundamentally reducing dependence on American chips.

When American companies sought to reopen the Chinese market, they found that a relatively complete domestic supply chain had already formed, and the demand for their chips had significantly decreased, making inventory backlog inevitable.

The changes in the global chip industry's supply and demand landscape also played a facilitating role.

In 2026, global storage chip prices continued to rise, leading to significant growth in the performance of domestic storage companies, while the traditional chip products of American companies no longer held advantages in terms of technology and cost performance.

At the same time, the demand structure of China's downstream electronics manufacturing industry is also adjusting, shifting demand for high-end chips towards domestic substitute products, while the total demand for traditional general-purpose chips is declining.

With multiple factors overlapping, Chinese buyers collectively withdrew, and the inventory of American companies could not be digested in time, forcing them to respond with significant price cuts.

This price plunge is not coincidental but an inevitable result of the rise of China's chip industry and the restructuring of market supply and demand; it is a normal phenomenon in the process of adjusting the global chip industry landscape.

今天A股主力净卖出71亿，主力集中净卖出商业航天，消费金融，光线传媒，中国卫星，航天电子，中文在线，农业银行，贵州茅台主力净卖出居前，逆势大跌领跌；主力集中净买入AI硬件科技股，英维克，兆易创新，利欧股份，蓝色光标，佰维存储等主力净买入居前，大涨涨停领涨。
主力资金今天抢筹科技股，AI硬件，半导体扫货居前，节前主力布局科技股，市场延续轮动，放弃防御，选择进攻，主力看好节后行情。
今天A股主力净卖出前十
新易盛主力净卖出14.5亿，下跌1.59%，光模块
光线传媒主力净卖出10.1亿，大跌12.17%，电影
胜宏科技主力净卖出8.33亿，下跌1.14%，PCB
信维通信主力净卖出8.25亿，下跌1.38%，消费电子
中国卫星主力净卖出7.91亿，下跌2.09%，商业航天
航天电子主力净卖出7.84亿，下跌2.77%，商业航天
中国巨石主力净卖出7.36亿，大涨7.13%，玻璃玻纤
中际旭创主力净卖出7.25亿，下跌0.84%,光模块
农业银行主力净卖出6.88亿，下跌2.65%，银行
中文在线主力净卖出6.64亿，大跌6.61%，传媒
今天A股主力净买入前十
利欧股份主力净买入31.6亿，涨停板，AI应用
英维克主力净买入16.5亿，涨停板，液冷
兆易创新主力净买入13.4亿，大涨6.55%，存储芯片
特变电工主力净买入10.6亿，大涨4.22%，电网设备
宁德时代主力净买入2.14亿，上涨2.14%，电池
昆仑万维主力净买入9.49亿，大涨11.42%，游戏
中国船舶主力净买入9.29亿，上涨3.06%，军工
蓝色光标主力净买入9.12亿，大涨6.55%，AI应用
东山精密主力净买入8.60亿，大涨6.98%，消费电子
佰维存储主力净买入8.26亿，大涨7.53%，存储芯片

Pelosi blasts Trump, stating that if America ever falls, there's no need to blame China or Russia; just blame Trump, as he has torn apart the American political landscape.

As a senior figure in American politics, Pelosi has long put her dissatisfaction with Trump on display. She directly referred to Trump as a "despicable guy" and bluntly stated that he is the "worst person on earth," with the core accusation being that Trump shows complete disrespect for the Constitution, completely disrupting a political arena that was already marked by division.

The conflict between Trump and Pelosi has never been a mere private grievance. After Trump delivered his State of the Union address in 2020, Pelosi publicly tore up his speech in front of everyone.

This act was not a moment of impulse but a direct manifestation of the complete public unveiling of bipartisan opposition. Immediately following, Pelosi led the House in initiating two impeachment proceedings against Trump, the first accusing him of abuse of power, and the second following the Capitol Hill riot. Even knowing that the Senate was unlikely to convict, she still pushed the entire process forward.

Trump's governing style fundamentally disrupted the traditional balance of American politics. After his return to the White House in 2025, he took "governing by executive order" to an extreme, signing a number of executive orders that far exceeded those of previous administrations, covering key areas such as repealing environmental policies and implementing unilateral tariffs.

He also promoted a large-scale federal employee cut plan, putting nearly two million traditional bureaucrats at risk of resignation or dismissal, directly impacting the operational model of the long-established American administrative system.

To consolidate his power, Trump completely favored political loyalty in personnel decisions, sidelining a large number of senior career civil servants, instead promoting staunch supporters.

This maneuvering escalated the existing partisan divides in American politics from policy debates to identity-based confrontations. The Republican Party, under his influence, underwent a complete "Trumpification," while the Democratic Party, under Pelosi's leadership, staunchly countered, drastically shrinking the space for cooperation between the two parties.

Trump frequently used social media to directly communicate with his supporters, bypassing traditional political channels, further deepening the divide among the populace. He referred to Pelosi as "Crazy Nancy" and repeatedly attacked her in public as an "evil woman" and "a burden on the nation."

The mutual attacks had no boundaries, and what should have been a focus on national governance turned into pure personal attacks and tools for partisan strife.

The system of checks and balances in the United States suffered severe shocks during Trump's presidency. The excessive expansion of presidential power left the legislative branch in a position of institutional weakness, making it difficult for Congress to effectively check the White House.

Even though there were attempts in both chambers to limit the president's war powers, partisan divides made it difficult for significant bills to pass, leading to the actual influence of Congress dropping to a historic low. This imbalance of power is a direct consequence of Trump tearing apart the political landscape.

The long-standing opposition between Pelosi and Trump has plunged American politics into a vicious cycle. Impeachment is no longer a punishment for presidential misconduct but has instead become a tool for partisan struggles.

Issues such as government shutdowns, policy reversals, and internal agency conflicts continue to arise, all rooted in the political divide sparked by Trump. American society has thus split into two opposing camps, with public trust in politics steadily declining.

If America shows signs of decline in the future, the fundamental reason will certainly be internal. Trump's radical approach has disrupted the original order of the political arena without establishing a new consensus.

The partisan struggles he instigated have plunged the entire nation into internal strife, with energy that could have been used for development being consumed in meaningless confrontations. Although Pelosi's counterattacks stem from partisan positions, the political divide she points out does indeed exist.

The chaos in America seen from the outside is essentially an inevitable result of Trump's tearing apart the political landscape. This divide is not something that can be fixed in the short term; it has permeated every aspect of political operation.

There is no need to shift the blame to other countries; the disorder in America's own politics is the most pressing issue that needs to be addressed. Trump's governing behavior has fundamentally changed the ecological landscape of American politics, and the negative impacts of this change will continue to influence the trajectory of America's development.

[Rabbit] This is not a test of endurance between China and the United States, but a gamble on life.
The United States has now loosened the leash on Japan, its “bad dog.” Once the peace constitution is breached, Northeast Asia could be bitten back at any moment.
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In the past few decades, Japan has been firmly embedded in the U.S. East Asia security framework, not because its military strength is weak, but because the system chain known as the “peace constitution” has always restricted Japan's strategic autonomy. Japan can have a Self-Defense Force, cooperate with the U.S. military, and take on roles in bases and logistics, but fundamentally, it does not qualify to be a true military leader, let alone actively shape the regional security landscape.

Now, this red line is being gradually crossed.

From the legalization of the concept of “counterattack capability” to a significant increase in defense spending, to the public introduction and domestic deployment of long-range strike capabilities, Japan is rapidly aligning its institutional, weaponry, and strategic thinking with the military form of a “normal country.” The United States has not suppressed this but has instead backed it throughout in terms of diplomacy, public opinion, and technology.

The logic behind this is not complicated.

The biggest practical dilemma for the United States in the Western Pacific is limited resources. The European direction has long been constrained by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the security situation in the Middle East is repeatedly fluctuating. The U.S. can no longer maintain overwhelming presence in multiple directions as it did during the peak of the Cold War. To continue to pressure China in Northeast Asia, it can only shift more substantial risks onto its allies.

Japan is the most suitable one.

With a sufficiently forward geographical position, a complete industrial system, a mature military-industrial foundation, and a domestic political environment that has undergone significant changes under years of security anxiety narratives, Japan can upgrade from “helper” to “bearer” once it completes the final leap in constitutional and strategic cognition.

The problem lies precisely here.

Once Japan truly breaks free from the framework of the peace constitution, it will no longer just be a chess piece on the U.S. strategic chessboard, but will re-emerge as a country with independent security interests and regional influence aspirations. What the U.S. needs is a controllable forward pivot, but reality is likely to create a regional player with its own calculations.

The risks in Northeast Asia begin to spiral out of control from this point.

Japan has historically had an extremely strong anxiety about security and survival space. Once military normalization is fully realized, its strategic thinking will inevitably shift from “defensive cooperation” to “proactive shaping.” This does not mean that Japan will immediately initiate conflict, but it means that it will continuously escalate friction in areas such as intelligence, forward deployment, gray zone operations, and rules of maritime and aerial engagement.

These frictions are not occurring between the U.S. and Japan, but are happening in the surrounding seas and airspace of China.

The U.S. can retreat behind the scenes and outsource risks to its allies, but Japan must directly bear the military pressure, economic backlash, and social psychological impact brought by the confrontational front. Once the situation spirals out of control, the first to be drawn into high-intensity confrontation will not be the U.S. mainland, but the Japanese archipelago itself.

A more realistic problem is that Japan's military transformation will inevitably trigger a regional chain reaction.

South Korea has long been highly sensitive to Japan's military normalization. On one hand, it is highly dependent on the U.S. alliance; on the other hand, it remains vigilant on historical issues and current security judgments. The overflow of Japanese military power will force South Korea to further strengthen its own strike capabilities and forward deployments, shifting the Northeast Asia security structure from “U.S.-Japan-South Korea cooperation” to a more competitive trilateral game.

Russia in the Far East is also unlikely to remain indifferent. The leap in Japan's military capabilities will directly affect Russia's defense deployments and air-sea operational rhythm in the Far East, resulting in a continuous increase in the density of military interactions throughout Northeast Asia.

Once this high-frequency confrontation becomes normalized, the likelihood of accidental friction and misjudgment will rise rapidly.

This is precisely the essence of the “gamble on life.”

The U.S. bets that Japan can bear more risks without losing control; Japan bets that by adhering to the U.S. strategic framework, it can instead gain greater security guarantees and international status; while the regional countries that are forced to get involved face a constantly elevated security threshold.

For China, this game has never been just a test of endurance between China and the United States, but a deep reshaping surrounding the regional order structure.

If the U.S. successfully pushes Japan to the forefront, what China faces will not just be a military projection issue from the U.S., but a militarily complete neighbor in terms of institutions, industries, military-industrial capabilities, and geopolitical space. The strategic environment will shift from “external pressure” being dominant to a long-term coexistence with “close complex opponents.”

What is even more concerning is that the U.S. does not need this confrontation to truly escalate into war. As long as the state of tension continues to exist, Japan's defense spending will remain at a high level for a long time, and its military-industrial system will continue to expand, allowing the U.S. military-industrial sector and strategic influence to stabilize and profit from this.

Under this structure, what is truly under pressure is the overall economic security and development environment of Northeast Asia.

Capital is highly sensitive to geopolitical risks. High expectations for confrontation will long elevate regional financing costs, impact industrial chain layouts, and affect technological cooperation and personnel flow. On the surface, it appears to be a military security issue, but in essence, it is slowly eroding the growth space of the entire region.

Meanwhile, the direct costs borne by the United States are relatively limited.

Capital outflow
This morning, there was a small amount of capital returning, as there was a slight increase in volume. Additionally, there has been some repositioning of capital in the market, but this adjustment is still far from sufficient. Therefore, the quantitative attributes remain very evident, with various impulsive rotations. Today is the last day for capital withdrawal, and those who want to withdraw must act today, so let's see if there will be more capital returning to the market at the end of the trading session.
In terms of market direction,
Leading the gains is a uniform trend, focusing on institutional growth directions, such as the computing power industry chain (optical concepts, liquid cooling, power supply, storage), semiconductor industry chain, and new energy industry chain (batteries, energy storage, metals).
On the thematic side, AI applications and commercial aerospace have only seen some recognition rebound, while the traditional old listings are leading the declines, which also further illustrates the previous risk-averse thinking.
From this perspective, everyone seems more inclined to flow back towards growth directions and industrial logic; as for thematic directions, quantification is leading, and various streaming rooms are involving retail investors in the game.
In summary, these institutional directions have provided too many opportunities previously, and after a significant rise, one cannot chase anymore, as currently, the incremental capital has not effectively flowed back, still dominated by quantitative factors. Therefore, after a surge, it is easy to be hit down, so wait for a correction to make low buy-ins.
1. These optical concepts have consecutively reached new highs, such as Tai Chen Guang, Changxin, Changhua, etc. These are all frequently inquired about. From the weekend to the recap articles over the past few days, if you want to learn, just go back and take a look. It's about next-generation interconnection technology, trends, and the current situation.
Capital follows this speculation.
Of course, it's also fine to browse articles from the second half of 2025 because I also discussed these topics. Including the column articles that are also these.
2. The flower concept that has been frequently inquired about these days.
This is a core player in domestic supernodes. To put it bluntly, our AI chip performance is still lacking, so we achieve overall performance breakthroughs through supernode groups.
In fact, in my opinion, this round of optical interconnection technology trends also indicates that, from the AI competition dimension, AI chip manufacturers have extended their competition from computing power performance to a dual battlefield of chip + scale-up network.
Regarding the flower concept, related companies include Shenling (liquid cooling) and materials (Nanya, Huafeng). The first three have all reached new highs, so I won't focus on tracking them anymore.
There is also Feiling (domestic switches).
These should be included in the December recap articles; you can check them out. Of course, I also included them in the January column.
3. Other domestic computing power.
First, the computing power leasing catalyzed by the tight supply of computing power has been surging these days, and it can't be elaborated on anymore. Take a look at last week's articles. Second, components supporting computing power infrastructure,
like liquid cooling, optical modules, etc. These are all ongoing follow-ups. For example, Guangxun, these are continuously tracked.

The early market performance is quite impressive: the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index closed strongly with a **1.18%** medium bullish candlestick; the number of stocks rising and falling is nearly even, with the number of gainers slightly ahead, and there is a high probability of oscillation in the afternoon.
However, I must clarify one thing this morning: the main line has officially returned.
The most critical factor is not the increase in the ChiNext Index, but the combination of computing power and electricity, the "twin stars of new productive forces," which have finally formed synergy. The market is completely following the direction set by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to "promote the coordinated development of computing power and electricity." Liquid cooling, optical modules, high-speed copper cables, and other computing power hardware have rebounded across the board, with Chuanrun Co., Ltd. and TeFa Information hitting the daily limit; on the other hand, power equipment, smart grids, and ultra-high voltage are also strengthening, with Jinshi Technology and Wangbian Electric hitting their limits.
This is not merely a simple rebound from overselling, but a genuine market driven by policy anchoring and industrial resonance.
Last night, Nvidia's liquid cooling supplier, Vidi Technology, reported earnings far exceeding expectations, with U.S. stocks soaring about 24%, directly confirming the realization of benefits from computing infrastructure hardware; prices of resources like rare earths continue to rise, with Xianglu Tungsten Industry hitting the limit with fundamental support, not just speculative trading. AI is transitioning from concept to high electricity demand, and electricity reform is moving from documents to actual orders, with the resonance of both making today’s market highly valuable.
The adjustments continue to be seen in previously purely emotional themes: multiple stocks in film, gaming, and commercial aerospace hit their limits, and some companies urgently announced to clarify rumors of "leading stocks," leading funds to flee. This also indicates that: when emotions recede, pseudo-concepts without fundamental support are the most dangerous.
What to expect in the afternoon?
The half-day trading volume is 1.33 trillion yuan, 30.7 billion more than the same period yesterday. Having such volume before the holiday indicates that incremental funds are flowing back, not just pure market speculation. The index is unlikely to plunge, and the ChiNext Index is expected to stabilize with an increase of over 1%, even aiming for a 1.5% surge.
On the operational side, a reminder:
Computing power is generally rebounding today, and it is likely to differentiate tomorrow. In the afternoon, don’t chase high stocks that have already risen by 7-8 points; prioritize focusing on stocks that hit the daily limit in the morning and have sufficient turnover, or shift towards electricity direction to look for rebound opportunities. Electricity is driven by clear policy, with relatively lower positions; if computing power funds overflow, ultra-high voltage and smart grids will be the preferred direction.
The strategy can be summed up in four words: do the familiar, not the new.
For holders, do not switch stocks randomly; sell only during afternoon pulses of weak mixed stocks without buying; new positions should only focus on core active stocks in computing power and electricity, staying away from pseudo-concepts that have announced clarifications.
This bullish candlestick in the morning is not a blind attack signal but a call for the main line to gather. Funds are flowing back to the core track, keeping up with the direction, but not blindly chasing high prices.

Afternoon Review: Power equipment leads the rise, the A-share market slightly rises in the morning, with the ChiNext index rising over 1% leading the two markets. Will the rise of A-shares continue in the afternoon? Is there a risk of pulling back after a high?
Power equipment leads the rise, with grid equipment and the semiconductor sector showing significant gains. The hot sectors leading in the morning include other power equipment, small metals, grid equipment, flexible DC transmission, liquid-cooled servers, optical fiber concepts, co-packaged optics, ultra-high voltage, and pumped storage; among these, other power equipment surged by four points leading the two markets. It is not difficult to see from the leading hot sectors that grid equipment, semiconductors, and electronic manufacturing are the main directions for the rise in the morning A-share market. Semiconductors, electronic manufacturing, communication equipment, and components are the gathering places for technology themes, and their rise contributes to the rebound of the Innovation Index. The 40-point surge of the ChiNext index in the morning, exceeding 1%, is a good proof of this. The sectors related to power such as grid equipment, electricity, ultra-high voltage, and flexible DC transmission are investment directions that we should continue to pay attention to, where the expectation of future补涨 for lagging blue chips will be even stronger.
The rise of technology themes will inevitably lead to a general decline in traditional industries, with morning declines in liquor, banking, insurance, food and beverage, retail, and aquaculture all exceeding one point. The recently surging film and television cinema sector continues to decline and adjust, with an intra-day drop exceeding five points leading the two markets; the larger the increase in the film and television cinema sector before the holiday, the less worth it is for us to hold stocks through the holiday. The seesaw market of traditional industries and technology themes is the main theme of the recent A-share market. Before the Spring Festival, the insufficient incremental funds lead to a lack of sustained upward momentum in the A-share market, and the seesaw market of A-shares will continue.
The Shanghai index rose by 5 points, with a turnover of 560 billion. In the morning, the Shanghai index continued to adjust within a narrow range, closing with an increase of 5 points and a turnover of only 560 billion. It is expected that today's turnover in the Shanghai market will be around 800 billion. Although the Shanghai index has both rises and falls, the daily K-line shows a trend of eight consecutive rises, and it has remained above the 20-day and 5-day moving averages for the past four trading days. From a short-term perspective, the Shanghai index shows signs of strengthening again, but insufficient trading volume and the approach of the Spring Festival, along with insufficient trading time, are the main reasons for the weak rise of the Shanghai index. Looking at the short-term trend, the narrow fluctuations of the Shanghai index will continue, and new directions will only appear after the holiday. Short-term investors should avoid holding stocks through the holiday, while long-term investors should also appropriately reduce their positions before the holiday.

今天是春节前的关键交易日，不少人担心会大跌，但实际盘面却是平稳震荡，收红的概率依然很大。
结合这几天指数和情绪来看，安心持股过节完全没问题，核心逻辑有这几点：
1. 大盘维持窄幅震荡、重心翻红，节前走出连续小阳的可能性很高。涨幅不大，但持续收阳，本身就是护盘信号，也体现出守住4100点的决心，为节后反弹打下基础。
2. 人民币汇率持续走强，已升破6.90关口，创下2023年4月以来新高。在弱美元趋势下，人民币升值对A股等中国资产构成明显利好。
3. 成交量虽未继续放大，但也没有明显缩量，昨天两市成交额站上两万亿，今天基本维持在相近水平。即便小幅回落也属正常，节前缩量是常态，目前盘面看不到恐慌情绪。两万亿量级的成交，足以支撑指数在4100点上方震荡轮动，节后资金回流后，情绪和赚钱效应会进一步回暖。
4. 板块轮动健康有序：昨天周期、有色、化工领涨，今天AI算力硬件走强，此前AI应用、大模型、白酒消费等也轮番反弹。虽然没有一条主线一路领涨，但热门板块持续轮动，持股待涨就有轮动机会。
资金始终围绕科技、周期、消费三大方向切换，其中科技仍是核心主线，算力硬件、大模型、光模块、半导体、商业航天、可控核聚变等细分不断轮动，机会充足。
科技板块确实有估值分歧，但全球科技竞争是大趋势，美股AI也是在质疑中不断新高，今年科技依然是主线。当前资金更偏好算力硬件等硬核逻辑，后续AI应用也会逐步落地，仍是重点跟踪方向。
5. 今天整体走势正常、节奏健康，安心持股过节即可。仓位根据自身风险偏好调整即可，不必强求统一。
距离春节只剩不到两个交易日，保持好心态最重要。这几天我会继续站好节前最后一班岗，陪大家平稳收官，迎接新年行情！

On February 12, unable to wait for the noon closing, the Shanghai Composite Index remained steady, with trading volume moderately increasing, and there was no large-scale outflow of funds. The U.S. stock market fluctuated at high levels, while the Japanese and South Korean stock markets set new historical highs. The external stock markets remained stable, and there would be no major ups or downs before the holiday.
Last night, U.S. stocks surged and then retreated, with all three major indices declining slightly. In the morning, the Asia-Pacific stock market saw more gainers than losers, with the Nikkei Index rising and then falling back, down 0.08%, setting a new historical high. The South Korean stock market soared 2.98%, hitting a new historical high. Hong Kong stocks in the high-tech sector followed the U.S. market's significant drop.
Gold surged and then fell back, breaking below the 5100 mark, returning to a sideways movement around 5000. Silver saw a larger decline, dragging down the gains in gold. Non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and rare earths continued to rise sharply. Rare earths surged 2%, approaching previous highs, and it may be wise to reduce positions at high levels.
Non-ferrous metals and rare earths have seen significant gains recently, and it may be prudent to reduce positions at high levels. Pharmaceuticals, rare earths, electricity, and securities are at relatively low levels, with very clear profit expectations and a higher probability of catching up. With ten days of holidays, there are too many uncertainties, and low-position sectors seem more stable.
According to the monthly line structure analysis, the Nasdaq Index is at a high level, forming a rounded top. Each time this pattern appears, it triggers a monthly level decline. High technology is significantly affected by the U.S. stock market, while new energy, super-hard materials, and lithography machines have greater room for independent control.
If there are no major negative factors during the Spring Festival holiday, the market after the holiday looks relatively optimistic. Maintain a relatively high position and wait for the spring red envelope market. Wishing everyone good luck on Thursday!

Once the United States goes to war with Iran, China and Russia will have no way out. To put it bluntly, Iran is our last barrier against the United States in our confrontation with Russia.
The U.S. strategy in the Middle East has never been a temporary whim; the so-called strategic reduction is merely a shift to a more cost-effective approach. While it appears to reduce ground troop investment, in reality, it firmly holds regional control through dozens of military bases and an allied system.
The Al Udeid base in Qatar is home to tens of thousands of troops and serves as the forward brain of the U.S. Central Command. The Fifth Fleet in Bahrain monitors the entire Persian Gulf, and bases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Syria are scattered throughout the region, akin to pieces on a chessboard in the Middle East, ready to act against any disobedient nation.
In 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and subsequently exerted maximum pressure on Iran by banning oil exports and freezing overseas assets. Essentially, it aimed to remove this troublesome nail, as Iran not only rejected U.S. influence but also happened to be situated at a critical juncture in global energy.
The narrow Strait of Hormuz can truly be described as the throat of the global economy.
Data from 2024 indicates that 20 million barrels of oil pass through here daily, accounting for more than a quarter of global maritime oil trade. Additionally, one-fifth of liquefied natural gas also travels this route, with 69% flowing to Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. As the main buyer of Iranian oil, China is naturally reliant on this energy corridor.
More critically, the narrowest point of the strait is only 33 kilometers, with Iran guarding the northern shore. Its ballistic missiles and coastal firepower can cover the entire shipping lane at any time. Even the most powerful U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups must tread carefully here; if Iran is truly pushed to the limit and blocks the strait, global oil prices will skyrocket, a cost that both the U.S. and Europe cannot bear.
The partnership between China, Russia, and Iran is no longer mere verbal support but a solid community of shared interests.
The Geshm oil terminal built in cooperation between China and Iran can store 30 million barrels of crude oil, providing Iran with a more stable channel for oil exports and offering China a safer energy reserve point. Along with the development cooperation in the North Azadegan and Yadavaran oil fields, China's energy investments in Iran have already reached a significant amount.
Russia is even less to mention; many drones used on the Ukrainian battlefield were imported from Iran. These low-cost, long-range devices significantly enhance the strike efficiency of the Russian military, while Iran has also improved its military-industrial system by leveraging Russia's demand.
This complementary cooperation is not a short-term exchange of interests but a strategic understanding to cope with U.S. pressure. After all, everyone understands that the principle of "when the lips are gone, the teeth are cold" is never outdated in great power rivalry.
Iran’s ability to become the last barrier relies not just on its geographical location but also on its tangible deterrent power.
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has 190,000 personnel and holds thousands of ballistic missiles with ranges from 300 kilometers to 2,500 kilometers, capable of covering all U.S. military bases in the Middle East and even reaching southeastern Europe. In last year's conflict, Iran launched 550 missiles and 1,000 drones in one go; even if its stockpile is halved, its rapid production capacity gives the U.S. a headache.
Even more clever is the "axis of resistance" that Iran has constructed. Forces like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen can constrain the U.S. and its allies without Iran directly engaging in combat. Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and U.S. military bases being targeted all bear the shadow of this system. This asymmetric warfare model makes it challenging for the U.S. to leverage the military advantages it has invested heavily in.
If Iran is truly taken down by the U.S., the consequences for China and Russia would be catastrophic.
The U.S. would completely control the Strait of Hormuz and could easily cut off the energy routes for China and Russia. At that point, oil import costs would soar, industrial production and economic development would be choked.
Moreover, the U.S. would use the "Abraham Accords" to bind Arab countries and Israel together, creating a genuine "Middle Eastern version of NATO." At that time, the Middle East would become the U.S.'s backyard, no longer needing to be distracted by troubles here, allowing for more troops and resources to be deployed to the Indo-Pacific region, focusing on containing China and Russia.
The economic corridor from India to the Middle East to Europe, initiated by the U.S., is essentially designed to bypass the trade routes dominated by China and Russia. Once Iran, this key node, is controlled, this corridor can be smoothly advanced, further compressing the development space for China and Russia.
It's not that China and Russia don't want more options; it's just that the only country in the Middle East that can truly withstand U.S. pressure and has strategic value is Iran.
Other countries have either long leaned towards the U.S. or lack the strength to carry the flag. Only Iran possesses geographical advantages, military deterrent power, and a willingness to stand alongside China and Russia.
In recent years, U.S. operations around the world have become quite evident: first, seize key node countries, then construct a siege net, and ultimately compress the opponent's development space. From NATO's eastward expansion in Europe to the Indo-Pacific strategy, it's all the same playbook.
Iran stands as the last massive stone blocking this playbook. Once it is moved aside, China and Russia will face the dual pressure of the U.S. from the east and west. Finding an ally capable of constraining the U.S. again will be exceedingly difficult.
This is not a question of whether China and Russia want to retreat; it is that the U.S.'s hegemonic expansion leaves no room for retreat. With Iran, China and Russia still have a buffer and leverage to constrain, but without Iran, they must confront the direct pressure of hegemony.

February 12 morning news
1. Stock announcements
Xinrui Co., Ltd.: Plans to acquire 70% equity of PCB tool company Huilian Electronics for no more than 700 million yuan
Ziguang Co., Ltd.: Plans to raise no more than 5.57 billion yuan for the acquisition of 6.98% equity of New H3C and other matters
Kaiying Network: Subsidiary signs settlement agreement with Legendary IP, expected to generate a positive impact of approximately 200 million yuan on this period's profit
Jin'an Guoji: Copper-clad laminate group formation completed
Taiji Industrial: Consortium wins bid for Hua Hong FAB9B project engineering general contracting, bid price 3.778 billion yuan
Pingzhi Information: Plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan for the construction project of domestic intelligent computing power center
Jin Hai Tong: Investment of no more than 400 million yuan for the construction project of Shanghai Lanbo Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturing Center
Longbai Group: Plans to acquire 5.46% equity of Yunnan Guotai for 234 million yuan
Lian Ang Technology: Subsidiary invests 21.2 million yuan in fund to precisely invest in Beijing Shengshu Technology
2. Resumption of trading
Tianqimo: Resumes trading, plans to purchase 60% shares of Dongshi Co.
*ST Zhang: Resumes trading, star removed but cap retained, ST Zhangjiajie
3. Stock risk avoidance
Guangkang Biochemical: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 4.46%
Keri Technology: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 3.13%
Haibosi Chuang: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 3.01%
Kelin Electric: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 3.00%
Jieshun Technology: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 2.80%
Weibo Hydraulic: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 2.00%
Shangpin Home Collection: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 1.78%
Luoboteke: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 1.33%
O Ke Yi: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 1.00%
Li He Xing: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 0.99%
Dongli Machinery: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by 0.94%
Tianji Co., Ltd.: Suspected of illegal information disclosure, under investigation by the Securities Regulatory Commission.

Are you excited? Earn 11 days of interest in just 1 day; the opportunity is today!
With the long holiday approaching, a lot of idle funds and risk-averse capital will be focused on reverse repos of government bonds. Today is a great window to earn effortlessly: spend 1 day and get 11 days of interest. Such a good deal is rare.
That's right, we are talking about reverse repos of government bonds.
This year's Spring Festival, the A-shares market will be closed for 10 days, from February 14 to February 23.
The idle money in your account is just sitting there; why not let it 'work overtime and earn interest'?
Today (February 12) is the last golden operation day before the holiday:
Buy 1-day reverse repos of government bonds —
Choose either Shanghai market GC001 or Shenzhen market R-001,
It only occupies 1 day but earns interest for 11 days!
The operation is also very simple; just have a stock account and place an order before 3:30 PM.
Tomorrow the funds will return to your account, and you can buy stocks normally;
If you want to withdraw cash, you need to wait until after the holiday on February 24.
Does it sound like easy money? But there's a pitfall to remind you of:
After 3 PM, interest rates can easily plummet. If you want to sell for good returns, try to operate during normal trading hours and don’t rush to place orders at the last minute; otherwise, you'll only get lower rates.
The opportunity is here, and many people will ask:
Will this make today's A-shares a bit 'virtual'?
The reasoning is simple:
1 day locking in 11 days of stable interest is very attractive to risk-averse capital.
This part of the money is likely to be pulled out of the stock market to do reverse repos, which may exert some selling pressure today, making it difficult for the index to surge significantly.
But can it really bring the index down? I don't think so.
Those who really want to sell or withdraw money for the holiday have mostly left in the past few days; they won't wait until today to escape all at once.
The rest are either stuck in losses or firmly holding stocks for the holiday, betting on post-holiday market trends — after all, the gains from a wave of increases far exceed this little interest.
So now the market is a battle between two types of capital:
One side is the risk-averse, securing profits while earning 11 days of interest;
The other side is the aggressive, optimistic about the post-holiday market, willing to hold stocks for bigger gains.
These two forces will pull against each other, and today the market will likely be balanced:
Don’t expect a big drop, and don’t fantasize about a big rise.
Those who want to sell have mostly done so, and those who want to chase are also reluctant to rush in;
The index is likely to see narrow fluctuations, moving slowly, allowing everyone to peacefully celebrate the New Year.
Finally, here’s a practical suggestion:
For idle money, those who don’t want to hold stocks: do reverse repos directly today and steadily earn 11 days of interest; enjoy the New Year with peace of mind.
Those with stocks who are optimistic about the post-holiday market: there’s no need to panic and cut losses for a little interest; the post-holiday market is more worth looking forward to.
My own thought process is:
Half do reverse repos, half hold stocks for the holiday,
So I can earn stable interest and not miss out on the post-holiday market.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly, but the trading volume was only 820 billion. The ChiNext Index, on the other hand, closed in the red across the board, with a decline of over 1%. Will the dividend trend in A-shares continue today? Is there a risk of the Shanghai Composite Index pulling back after a short-term rise?
The US and European stock markets closed slightly lower. The slight decline in the US stock markets last night had a certain negative impact on today's A-share market, with the Dow Jones Index falling by 66 points and the Nasdaq Index dropping by 36 points; European stock markets were similarly mixed, and the offshore RMB exchange rate closed around 6.9. On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3 points, and the daily K-line remained stable above the 20-day moving average, but the trading volume on the Shanghai market was only 820 billion, once again setting a new low for this year. For the Shanghai Composite Index facing a breakthrough, a short-term rise in volume is not a good sign, as the continued decline in trading volume means that the index lacks sustained upward momentum; the more severe the decline in volume, the greater the risk of a pullback. In the context of continuous shrinking volume, the Shanghai Composite Index may hold the support of the 20-day moving average before the holiday, but the risk of a pullback after the holiday will increase.
The concept of annual report pre-increase is expected to usher in a rising market after the holiday. Stable performance growth is the foundation for supporting the continuous rise of listed companies' stock prices, and the concept of annual report pre-increase is the investment direction we should pay the most attention to in the first quarter. There are only two trading days left before the holiday, and only five trading days left in February. Starting in March, more and more listed companies will announce their performance for 2025 and their first-quarter performance for this year. For high-quality companies with rapid profit growth in the first three quarters, this is the best entry point for them. The cap-removal concept, high transfer concept, high dividend selection concept, annual report pre-increase concept, and companies with expectations of turning losses into profits are the most valuable investment varieties in the next two months.
The primary choice for risk avoidance remains undervalued, high-dividend blue-chip stocks. The reason blue-chip stocks have hedging value is that they are undervalued, have strong profitability, and low potential risks. In a bull market, they may not have the largest gains, but in a bear market, they are definitely the best hedging assets, and can even be big winners that span bear markets. Although the current A-share market is in a strong trend, the index that has risen for a year also shows signs of weakened upward momentum. At this time, choosing hedging assets is very necessary; industry leaders with a price-to-earnings ratio below 20 times, a dividend yield greater than 3%, and a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion are worthy of our serious study as investment targets. In the long run, they also have long-term investment value due to their undervaluation.

The opening is about to happen soon. Today is the last withdrawal selling day before the holiday. From a psychological perspective, people are generally cautious. Additionally, the overall weakness in the US stock market last night will also put some pressure on the opening of the A-shares.
After the release of the US non-farm payroll data for January, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled significantly. The three major US stock indices opened high and then dropped sharply, subsequently rebounding slightly, closing with limited losses, but overall in the green. The external market is generally bearish, but as long as there is no significant crash, the actual impact on A-shares is limited.
The key focus remains on A-shares themselves: today is the last withdrawal day before the holiday. According to tradition, funds intended for withdrawal during the New Year must sell stocks today. Theoretically, the selling pressure will be quite evident, and the market is concerned about whether it can withstand the pressure.
First, let's talk about the situation in the US stock market last night:
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all closed in the green, but there was significant internal differentiation. The market attributed the decline to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. However, in reality, the strong economy supports the stock market far more than the interest rate cuts themselves. This round of the bull market in the US emerged during the interest rate hike cycle, indicating that the core of the rise and fall is not about whether to raise or cut interest rates.
Moreover, the US dollar index had very little fluctuation last night and did not surge due to the failure of interest rate cut expectations, which also indirectly suggests that the market is not as panicked as it seems.
In the short term, there may be emotional impacts on A-shares. A low opening and slight decline in the early session are normal, but this is only a temporary effect. The domestic monetary policy remains loose and will not be driven by the Federal Reserve.
In terms of sectors, semiconductor stocks in the US performed very strongly, with Micron, SanDisk, and others rising nearly 10%; while tech giants like Google and Microsoft weakened. Chinese concept stocks overall were weak, with the Golden Dragon Index slightly down. Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo turned red, while Weilai and Bilibili went against the trend and closed in the green. Gold and silver continued to strengthen, especially silver leading the gains, with risk aversion sentiment clearly heating up.
Back to A-shares:
The biggest pressure today is the selling pressure before the holiday withdrawal day.
However, everyone should also see that the market has adjusted for two consecutive days, and many individual stocks have not fallen small. The short-term profit-taking is already limited, and the actual selling pressure that can be unleashed is quite limited.
Moreover, the market atmosphere is different now; bullish expectations are rising, and "holding stocks through the New Year" has become the mainstream voice. Ordinary investors are actually less willing to easily go short before the holiday.
So my view is very clear:
Today, there is no need to scare yourself.
Even if the market starts to decline at the opening, there is no need to panic;
If the early session surges without volume, one should be cautious. A rebound without volume is hard to sustain, and chasing high may lead to standing on the sidelines;
If there is a sudden drop during the session, for those with light positions, it is actually an opportunity to buy low before the holiday.
The historical pattern is also very clear: in the week before and after the Spring Festival, the probability of the market rising is extremely high. Worrying about a significant drop after the holiday is actually unnecessary.
Summary of operational strategies in three sentences:
Do not chase rebounds without volume, dare to buy during sharp declines, and hold a comfortable position for the holiday.
No need to be entangled or overly emotional; every pullback in a bull market is a red envelope for rational investors.
Wishing everyone a prosperous account, a peaceful New Year, and a battle after the holiday!

February 12 Pre-Market Plan: There is no absolute main line theme in the market, and AI dramas may see significant recovery!
1. Yesterday, the market overall showed a trend of a pullback for profit-taking. The strong opening directions were driven by the logic of price increases, and the overall market sentiment was quite low. The trading volume barely closed above 2 trillion, giving a feeling of an early New Year, especially since today is the last cash withdrawal day. Choosing to cash out for the New Year is the last opportunity, so emotionally, the overall market sentiment today is not expected to be very good. Short-term funds may focus more on betting on the absolute main line themes after the New Year. From recent developments, AI dramas seem to be the most likely themes to cross over, so perhaps after yesterday's significant divergence and drop, there will be some recovery!
2. The large orders from Zhangyue have established the position of AI dramas. As long as it can continue to perform well, the overall sustainability of the sector will be guaranteed. Therefore, divergences will present opportunities for continuation. After all, as the leading main line, increased trading volume and turnover will provide the best gambling opportunity for funds. Last year, DeepSeek ignited the market and still showed strong performance after a series of strong limits. Zhangyue may perform similarly. Moreover, judging from yesterday's divergence intensity, it may still not open today. In that case, the recovery impact on the overall AI drama market will be quite significant. Once a clear recovery occurs, short-term funds will inevitably refocus on the key players in the front row. Therefore, from an emotional perspective, the recovery of AI dramas is highly probable. Conversely, if Zhangyue's bidding shows significant divergence, the choice of opening direction for AI dramas will be crucial. It will quickly indicate whether funds are willing to support a bullish trend or continue to be weak, representing the sector's sustainability. Although Zhangyue's divergence is an entry point, if the sector can resonate and rise at the opening, it will have a greater probability of sustaining that trend!
Huanrui has seen a shift in sentiment due to sector divergence. As the second most noteworthy stock after Zhangyue, it has funds supporting a comeback. If Zhangyue continues with strong large orders today and AI dramas see a clear recovery, Huanrui is expected to open significantly high or have a limit up. Conversely, if the overall sector sentiment remains low, given the opportunities from Zhangyue, it may be abandoned by funds. Therefore, theoretically, Huanrui's entry point still depends on Zhangyue's performance today!
Jiecheng benefits from the DeepSeek concept, which is a plus. Additionally, yesterday after the market closed, DeepSeek updated its new model context to millions of tokens, which is certainly stimulating for AI. Jiecheng, which had a strong volume absorption yesterday, has very strong recovery expectations. After all, if Zhangyue continues to be strong, 20cm will definitely have very strong trend stocks following, and Jiecheng is the most likely candidate. After all, it did not perform strongly in the previous wave of AI marketing, making it a stock that can explode from a low position, so it should have more upward space than Zhongwen. This is also why its performance was significantly better than Zhongwen yesterday!
Another stock to focus on for recovery is Bona. After all, due to sector factors causing emotional sell-offs, this stock is more favored by large funds compared to Huanrui. If it shows a clear transition from weak to strong at the opening, it will greatly contribute to the overall recovery of AI dramas!
3. The computing power showed very strong performance during the pullback of AI dramas, breaking through previous highs with a strong limit. This indicates that funds are very determined to buy. However, due to continuous shrinking volume increases, the trading volume at the end of yesterday was over 60 million, indicating a clear sell-off. Therefore, the probability of opening with a limit today is relatively low. Whether it can withstand divergence in the morning will be a major point of interest. If it shows a performance of high opening followed by a drop with support, then there will be significant recovery momentum to watch at the opening. However, the trading volume must be sufficiently replaced to seal the limit, and its continuation is best resonating with the computing power direction. Another possible trend is a slight high opening followed by quick fund absorption for buying. Such performance is actually a pretty good buying point during bidding because many stocks have chosen this method when experiencing continuous shrinking volume divergence, and the final limit sealing success rate is still very high!
4. The tight supply of fiberglass has driven the entire industrial chain. Yesterday morning, this direction exhibited a very strong sector effect, with multiple stocks showing very strong shrinking limit increases. However, this is still a niche theme, and whether it can show sustainability is hard to say. Therefore, the performance of core stocks is a direction worth paying attention to in the short term!
Shanbo was the first stock to hit the limit. It is clearly a small-cap stock. If it shows a large order limit, the overall influence on the sector will be very noticeable, providing arbitrage opportunities for other identifiable stocks in the sector!
Fucai is the only stock in this direction to hit a 20cm limit, and it also had a shrinking limit at the morning opening. The overall buying sentiment is very strong. If Shanbo shows a strong limit, it will be the best arbitrage variety, so its significant high opening followed by a limit increase is worth watching. Its continuation should be considered in conjunction with Shanbo's bidding performance and the overall sentiment of the sector!
5. The continuous rise in tungsten prices drove the colored metal direction yesterday, but the sustainability of this theme is questionable. Greenland may show some performance as it is the most recognizable stock. Therefore, whether its bidding can transition from weak to strong is very critical. If there are no particularly strong themes in the overall market, this direction may have some continuity. However, this theme may be difficult to become an absolute main line, so Greenland's consecutive limits are likely just an arbitrage market. Therefore, its weak transition to strong at the opening and subsequent acceptance on the limit can be a focus!
6. Commercial aerospace struggled to gain momentum yesterday despite the successful test of the Long March 10 and Dream Boat spaceships, making it likely difficult to see a sector effect before the New Year. The sharp rise and fall of Julii and Hailanxin were very damaging. If these two stocks continue to show weak performance at the opening, the short-term trend will likely end. For high-level stocks like Julii, if it starts to weaken after a sustained horizontal trend, one must pay attention to the risk of a trend pullback. After all, the previous second wave of Zhewen also began to drop continuously after reaching a peak. If Julii reverses sentiment today, it may truly mark the end!
Regarding commercial aerospace, the performance this month has indeed been quite disappointing. It can be seen that apart from the occasional drama brought by space photovoltaics, other branch themes have already become very weak, and the performance of Hangfa reflects the entire commercial aerospace sector. Therefore, if Hangfa does not explode, it will be very difficult for the entire sector to experience a big market!
This article is intended for sharing and communication only and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market has risks, and investments must be cautious!