February 12 Pre-Market Plan: There is no absolute main line theme in the market, and AI dramas may see significant recovery!
1. Yesterday, the market overall showed a trend of a pullback for profit-taking. The strong opening directions were driven by the logic of price increases, and the overall market sentiment was quite low. The trading volume barely closed above 2 trillion, giving a feeling of an early New Year, especially since today is the last cash withdrawal day. Choosing to cash out for the New Year is the last opportunity, so emotionally, the overall market sentiment today is not expected to be very good. Short-term funds may focus more on betting on the absolute main line themes after the New Year. From recent developments, AI dramas seem to be the most likely themes to cross over, so perhaps after yesterday's significant divergence and drop, there will be some recovery!
2. The large orders from Zhangyue have established the position of AI dramas. As long as it can continue to perform well, the overall sustainability of the sector will be guaranteed. Therefore, divergences will present opportunities for continuation. After all, as the leading main line, increased trading volume and turnover will provide the best gambling opportunity for funds. Last year, DeepSeek ignited the market and still showed strong performance after a series of strong limits. Zhangyue may perform similarly. Moreover, judging from yesterday's divergence intensity, it may still not open today. In that case, the recovery impact on the overall AI drama market will be quite significant. Once a clear recovery occurs, short-term funds will inevitably refocus on the key players in the front row. Therefore, from an emotional perspective, the recovery of AI dramas is highly probable. Conversely, if Zhangyue's bidding shows significant divergence, the choice of opening direction for AI dramas will be crucial. It will quickly indicate whether funds are willing to support a bullish trend or continue to be weak, representing the sector's sustainability. Although Zhangyue's divergence is an entry point, if the sector can resonate and rise at the opening, it will have a greater probability of sustaining that trend!
Huanrui has seen a shift in sentiment due to sector divergence. As the second most noteworthy stock after Zhangyue, it has funds supporting a comeback. If Zhangyue continues with strong large orders today and AI dramas see a clear recovery, Huanrui is expected to open significantly high or have a limit up. Conversely, if the overall sector sentiment remains low, given the opportunities from Zhangyue, it may be abandoned by funds. Therefore, theoretically, Huanrui's entry point still depends on Zhangyue's performance today!
Jiecheng benefits from the DeepSeek concept, which is a plus. Additionally, yesterday after the market closed, DeepSeek updated its new model context to millions of tokens, which is certainly stimulating for AI. Jiecheng, which had a strong volume absorption yesterday, has very strong recovery expectations. After all, if Zhangyue continues to be strong, 20cm will definitely have very strong trend stocks following, and Jiecheng is the most likely candidate. After all, it did not perform strongly in the previous wave of AI marketing, making it a stock that can explode from a low position, so it should have more upward space than Zhongwen. This is also why its performance was significantly better than Zhongwen yesterday!
Another stock to focus on for recovery is Bona. After all, due to sector factors causing emotional sell-offs, this stock is more favored by large funds compared to Huanrui. If it shows a clear transition from weak to strong at the opening, it will greatly contribute to the overall recovery of AI dramas!
3. The computing power showed very strong performance during the pullback of AI dramas, breaking through previous highs with a strong limit. This indicates that funds are very determined to buy. However, due to continuous shrinking volume increases, the trading volume at the end of yesterday was over 60 million, indicating a clear sell-off. Therefore, the probability of opening with a limit today is relatively low. Whether it can withstand divergence in the morning will be a major point of interest. If it shows a performance of high opening followed by a drop with support, then there will be significant recovery momentum to watch at the opening. However, the trading volume must be sufficiently replaced to seal the limit, and its continuation is best resonating with the computing power direction. Another possible trend is a slight high opening followed by quick fund absorption for buying. Such performance is actually a pretty good buying point during bidding because many stocks have chosen this method when experiencing continuous shrinking volume divergence, and the final limit sealing success rate is still very high!
4. The tight supply of fiberglass has driven the entire industrial chain. Yesterday morning, this direction exhibited a very strong sector effect, with multiple stocks showing very strong shrinking limit increases. However, this is still a niche theme, and whether it can show sustainability is hard to say. Therefore, the performance of core stocks is a direction worth paying attention to in the short term!
Shanbo was the first stock to hit the limit. It is clearly a small-cap stock. If it shows a large order limit, the overall influence on the sector will be very noticeable, providing arbitrage opportunities for other identifiable stocks in the sector!
Fucai is the only stock in this direction to hit a 20cm limit, and it also had a shrinking limit at the morning opening. The overall buying sentiment is very strong. If Shanbo shows a strong limit, it will be the best arbitrage variety, so its significant high opening followed by a limit increase is worth watching. Its continuation should be considered in conjunction with Shanbo's bidding performance and the overall sentiment of the sector!
5. The continuous rise in tungsten prices drove the colored metal direction yesterday, but the sustainability of this theme is questionable. Greenland may show some performance as it is the most recognizable stock. Therefore, whether its bidding can transition from weak to strong is very critical. If there are no particularly strong themes in the overall market, this direction may have some continuity. However, this theme may be difficult to become an absolute main line, so Greenland's consecutive limits are likely just an arbitrage market. Therefore, its weak transition to strong at the opening and subsequent acceptance on the limit can be a focus!
6. Commercial aerospace struggled to gain momentum yesterday despite the successful test of the Long March 10 and Dream Boat spaceships, making it likely difficult to see a sector effect before the New Year. The sharp rise and fall of Julii and Hailanxin were very damaging. If these two stocks continue to show weak performance at the opening, the short-term trend will likely end. For high-level stocks like Julii, if it starts to weaken after a sustained horizontal trend, one must pay attention to the risk of a trend pullback. After all, the previous second wave of Zhewen also began to drop continuously after reaching a peak. If Julii reverses sentiment today, it may truly mark the end!
Regarding commercial aerospace, the performance this month has indeed been quite disappointing. It can be seen that apart from the occasional drama brought by space photovoltaics, other branch themes have already become very weak, and the performance of Hangfa reflects the entire commercial aerospace sector. Therefore, if Hangfa does not explode, it will be very difficult for the entire sector to experience a big market!
This article is intended for sharing and communication only and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market has risks, and investments must be cautious!