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February 12 update

1. M2 indicator, M2 continues to strengthen, and after hitting a new high on April 14, there was a brief pullback, followed by another attempt to hit a new high. In contrast, #Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, not performing strongly, and we will continue to observe the performance for the remainder of this week.

2. BTC.D index, 59, low-level fluctuations.

Updated on February 11

1. #m2 indicator, m2 has started to rebound, the target point for the first phase of the increase is around February 18, #Bitcoin is still fluctuating after the rebound, continue to observe the Bitcoin trend in the coming days $BTC

2. btc.d index, 59.12

3. Fear and Greed Index, 11, extreme fear

February 10 Update
1. #m2 Indicator, m2 continues to rise, the Bitcoin market in the coming days is also crucial, related to whether it will follow the new phase of m2 increase. Fortunately, m2 has been relatively strong in the past two days, staying around 70,000.
$BTC

2. btc.d Index, 59.19

3. #Fear and Greed Index, 9, Extreme Fear

#Bitcoin After a major drop, it usually takes some time to build a bottom, slowly or in phases rising, this probability is the highest, and the probability of a direct V reversal is very small.

So what conditions need to be met to achieve the lowest probability of a V reversal market? Generally, the following conditions need to be fully met:
$BTC

1. #Macroeconomic liquidity significantly improves
a. The Federal Reserve's policy shifts to easing, with the new Federal Reserve Chairman Waller expected to turn from hawkish to dovish, such as an early interest rate cut or pausing tightening.
b. The US Dollar Index (DXY) significantly retreats, the dollar weakens, and non-dollar assets strengthen, which aligns with Trump's goals.
c. Global risk assets resonate and rebound, such as the US stock market strengthening, currently in a high-level consolidation phase.

2. #Institutional funds flow in significantly
a. Strong inflow of spot ETFs like Bitcoin resumes.
b. Corporate/sovereign funds enter the market, with companies like MicroStrategy continuing to invest, and new companies continue to buy in.
c. Leverage liquidation ends + long positions rebuild, with bulls starting to establish positions and continuously exerting force, while market sentiment shifts to liquidating shorts.

3. #Technical and sentiment confirmation of a breakthrough
a. On the technical side, continuous breakthroughs of resistance levels, such as 75,000-80,000, and the 100,000 mark.
b. On the sentiment side, the fear and greed index gradually escapes the fear cycle, transitioning into a neutral and greed cycle.

4. #Favorable geopolitical conditions and policies

For example, the situation in the Middle East eases or negotiations succeed, new favorable developments in Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserves emerge, and new countries introduce strategic reserve policies. Regulatory aspects are continuously advancing, etc.

Summary: The core formula for #Bitcoin's V-shaped reversal and new highs is

"Macroeconomic easing + institutional buying + favorable policy winds + technical confirmation," all four are indispensable.

Although it seems unlikely to meet all at once, any one of them could offer an opportunity, especially if the Federal Reserve Chairman turns dovish and the dollar weakens.

#So how likely do you think the probability of Bitcoin's V reversal is?

Update on February 9

1. #m2 index, m2 shows that last week on February 6, is the lowest point for the next few months. #Starting this week, a new round of significant bull market will kick off, continuing until the peak on April 14. Last week, Bitcoin also reached its lowest point, and today it has stabilized at 70,000. If #Bitcoin keeps up with the upcoming bull market in the next two months, a direct v reversal is not impossible $BTC

2. btc.d index, 59.48

3. Fear and Greed Index, 14. Although still in extreme fear, at least it has escaped the single digits.

February 7 update

1. #m2 indicator, two months ago we looked at the m2 indicator, the new round's lowest starting point was on February 6, which is yesterday, and the new round of explosive growth also started yesterday and will last until April 14. Bitcoin $BTC
While the price of the coin has diverged, yesterday also synchronized to reach a low point before stabilizing. #Although a direct v reversal in BTC is a low probability event, #currently the m2 is showing this, corresponding to btc as a v reversal, let’s wait and see together.

2. btc.d index, 59.09
3. #Fear and Greed Index, 6, extreme fear, creating a new low since 2020.

February 6 update
1. #m2 indicator, m2 shows, #the next wave of crazy increases is about to start today. At the same time, Bitcoin also experienced a significant drop today, which means that today #Bitcoin may create a long wick, and the new market will begin thereafter.

2. btc.d index, 58.43, because in the past two days, Bitcoin's decline has been greater than that of altcoins, the btc.d index has also dropped significantly. If we are correct, today’s price is the lowest price, and if there is a strong rebound in the market later, then the #altcoin season may be just around the corner $BTC

3. #Fear and Greed Index, 9. Extreme fear, no need to say more, it's very low.

February 5 update
1. #m2 indicator, m2 has reached its lowest point today, which is the lowest starting point for the next wave of a two-month surge, and after m2 reached its lowest point this week, it will rebound slightly, with a larger rebound starting next Monday. At the same time, #Bitcoin is also creating a new low in this stage, still under extreme compression $BTC
February 5 update
1. #m2 indicator, m2 has reached its lowest point today, which is the lowest starting point for the next wave of a two-month surge, and after m2 reached its lowest point this week, it will rebound slightly, with a larger rebound starting next Monday. At the same time, #Bitcoin is also creating a new low in this stage, still under extreme compression
2. #btc.d index, 59.17, which means altcoins are no longer falling
3. #Fear and Greed index, 12, extreme fear

Updated on February 4
1. #m2 indicator, m2 is getting closer to the starting point of the next big rise, while #Bitcoin and m2 are almost declining in sync, so we still need to hold on to hope and not easily give up our chips $BTC

2. btc.d index, 59.63
3. #Fear and Greed Index, 14, Extreme Fear

February 3 update
1. #m2 index, m2 is already close to the bottom before the bull market, Bitcoin has been falling quite fiercely these days, this week's market is crucial, m2 shows that it will start around Thursday and Friday of this week, hope #Bitcoin can keep up $BTC

2. btc.d index, 60.05
3. #Fear and Greed index, 17, extreme fear

Updated on February 2
1. M2 indicator, M2 is synchronously declining, getting closer to the lowest point on February 6, after which it will start to rise. Bitcoin had a significant drop over the weekend, so the lowest point for Bitcoin might be in these two days $BTC

2. BTC.D index, 59.77
3. Fear and Greed index, 14, extreme fear

January 31 Update
1. M2 indicator, there is only one week left until the starting point of a new round of explosive growth (February 6), followed by two months of continuous increase, currently reaching the peak on April 14. Just as gold and silver begin to pull back, if the released liquidity can provide some support to the cryptocurrency market, it is also possible for Bitcoin to start a new round of bull market $BTC

2. BTC.D index, 59.73, continue to fluctuate
3. Fear and Greed Index, 20, extreme fear

January 30 update
1. M2 indicator: Yesterday, we were still discussing a short-term pullback in M2, but unexpectedly, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop last night and today. Has Bitcoin acted in advance? M2 shows that the lowest point is almost the lowest point of the fluctuations in recent months, so it's not surprising that Bitcoin dropped to around 80,000. $BTC

2. BTC.D index: 59.25, it's clear that, as in the past, altcoins still struggle to move.
3. Fear and Greed Index: 16, extreme fear.

#Gold's #Fear and Greed Index
The gold fear and greed index from JM Bullion has reached an extreme greed level of 99 (out of 100)

This indicates that investors are buying frantically, ignoring potential pullback risks

Usually, during extreme greed phases, you won't see such warning signals in the market

At this time, what you see every day upon waking is an increase, prices breaking new records, and retail investors believe that gold will continue to rise forever

January 29
1. M2 indicator, M2 shows a short-term small correction that will last until February 6, after which it will directly initiate the next wave of magnificent rises, currently lasting until April $BTC

2. BTC.D index, 59.62
3. Fear and Greed Index, 26, Fear

Update on January 28
1. M2 indicator, not much change, continues to fluctuate, but it is important to note that the latest M2 corresponds to April 14, and has shown explosive growth, which means that from the beginning of February, it has surged for more than 2 months $BTC

2. BTC.D index, 59.56
3. Fear and Greed index, 29, Fear

Not necessarily Ao

Updated on January 26
1. btc.d Index, 59.84
2. Fear and Greed Index, 20, Extreme Fear
3. M2 Indicator, M2 continues to maintain a low-level fluctuation. Fortunately, the latest M2 has reached April 13 again and has once again hit a new high. If Bitcoin can catch up in the next wave, breaking the new high should not be a problem $BTC

4. CME Futures Gap, declined on Sunday, BTC and ETH formed a new gap around 89200 and 2940, which usually will be filled.

Be prepared for danger in times of peace. What did the gold and silver bubbles look like in 2011, and will the gold and silver bubbles burst in a short time in 2026?

As mentioned earlier, the current market sentiment, price records, and other factors completely align with the situation of a bubble phase.

So how different is the current rise in gold and silver compared to the previous bubble in 2011? Let's take a look.