#Bitcoin After a major drop, it usually takes some time to build a bottom, slowly or in phases rising, this probability is the highest, and the probability of a direct V reversal is very small.
So what conditions need to be met to achieve the lowest probability of a V reversal market? Generally, the following conditions need to be fully met:
1. #Macroeconomic liquidity significantly improves
a. The Federal Reserve's policy shifts to easing, with the new Federal Reserve Chairman Waller expected to turn from hawkish to dovish, such as an early interest rate cut or pausing tightening.
b. The US Dollar Index (DXY) significantly retreats, the dollar weakens, and non-dollar assets strengthen, which aligns with Trump's goals.
c. Global risk assets resonate and rebound, such as the US stock market strengthening, currently in a high-level consolidation phase.
2. #Institutional funds flow in significantly
a. Strong inflow of spot ETFs like Bitcoin resumes.
b. Corporate/sovereign funds enter the market, with companies like MicroStrategy continuing to invest, and new companies continue to buy in.
c. Leverage liquidation ends + long positions rebuild, with bulls starting to establish positions and continuously exerting force, while market sentiment shifts to liquidating shorts.
3. #Technical and sentiment confirmation of a breakthrough
a. On the technical side, continuous breakthroughs of resistance levels, such as 75,000-80,000, and the 100,000 mark.
b. On the sentiment side, the fear and greed index gradually escapes the fear cycle, transitioning into a neutral and greed cycle.
4. #Favorable geopolitical conditions and policies
For example, the situation in the Middle East eases or negotiations succeed, new favorable developments in Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserves emerge, and new countries introduce strategic reserve policies. Regulatory aspects are continuously advancing, etc.
Summary: The core formula for #Bitcoin's V-shaped reversal and new highs is
"Macroeconomic easing + institutional buying + favorable policy winds + technical confirmation," all four are indispensable.
Although it seems unlikely to meet all at once, any one of them could offer an opportunity, especially if the Federal Reserve Chairman turns dovish and the dollar weakens.
#So how likely do you think the probability of Bitcoin's V reversal is?