看心

1.
The cryptocurrency exchange has provided a very clear and effective viewpoint that the top of the Bitcoin bull market distribution range has passed.


We have already left the solar system and can never go back.
Similarly, the bottom accumulation range of the bear market is also similar.
Once you leave and recheck for confirmation, you can never go back.
Market makers will not make large purchases during the accelerated decline phase, causing chaos in their operations.
Occasional contracts and a small amount of ETF inflows are not mainstream. They are merely a self-rescue for some foolish large funds.
After hard work to push the market down, how could it be significantly raised again, allowing retail investors the opportunity to escape?

1.
Today we interview an entrepreneur.
He is over 70 years old and highly respected.
He often uses small stories to 'clear the road' for us to eliminate understanding barriers.
Speaking of some entrepreneurs and officials who have stumbled in recent years.
We asked: Are they forced choices or proactive choices?
The entrepreneur answered: It is all proactive.
We asked: Is it because of greed? Is there fear?
The entrepreneur answered: It is the loss of the ability to perceive fear granted by power. They truly believe nothing will happen.
My summary:
Many people dare to do this and that in their lives, thus making a bunch of mistakes, occasionally mixed with some normal things.

1.



At a loss for words, cannot be refuted.
2.



In addition to bank managers, it cannot be refuted.
3.



This chart comes from the on-chain data organization Glassnode, showing Bitcoin: Relative Unrealized Loss. Simply put, it measures the total losses of all Bitcoin holders who are currently in a 'loss' state (current price below the purchase price), as a proportion of Bitcoin's total market value.
Black Curve (Right Axis): The price of Bitcoin in USD (logarithmic scale). It can be seen that the price has fluctuated from a few hundred dollars in 2017 to around $100,000 in 2025.

1.
Since Bitcoin started to decline on January 14, 2026, it accelerated its drop on February 3, 4, and 5, with a maximum drop of 24% over those three days.
The fear index has dropped to a historic level of 5.
The trading volume surged, reaching the highest single-day trading volume since August 5, 2024.
Naturally, Bitcoin rebounded from the bottom on February 6, rising from 60,000 to 71,700, with an increase of about 20%.
Because the bear market is currently ongoing, this bottom is temporary. Similar to the market in May 2022. At that time, Bitcoin dropped out of a consolidation area during the bear market, fluctuating sideways for more than 3 weeks. In the end, it started to plummet again. It reached around 17,000. If one were to seek a sword by marking the boat, when it dropped to 17,000, it corresponded exactly to the end of January 2026 in this bear market.

1.
If we consider the two and a half years after the birth of Bitcoin as a bull market, and the crash that began in the second half of 2011 as the first bear market, then there have been four bear markets (Bear One, Bear Two, Bear Three, Bear Four), four halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), and four halving bull markets.
In October 2025, the fifth halving bull market reached its peak, with a price of 126000.
The relationship between the monthly RSI indicators of the last four bull markets and prices shows a situation of bearish divergence. Prices are gradually rising, but the ability of the RSI values to reach new highs is gradually declining.
On the contrary, the position of the RSI low point continues to create new lows.

On February 4, 2026, Bitcoin was expected to have a round of stabilization and rebound from a technical structure perspective, but the market has remained weak, and the rebound has been feeble, with the rhythm and strength far below expectations. The core drag comes from two aspects: first, young whales in the 1-2 year cycle continue to sell off, as their cost basis is relatively low, and their holding conviction is insufficient. They realize profits during rebounds, suppressing the upward space; second, the funding for Bitcoin ETFs continues to weaken, with over $60 billion in allocated funds still experiencing net outflows. The selling pressure from institutions taking profits and reallocating has caused this round of rebound to lose the resilience and sustainability of the past, presenting an overall weak pattern of being 'easy to fall and hard to rise.'

1.
On February 4, 2026, Bitcoin was supposed to have a round of stabilization and rebound from a technical structure perspective, but the market remained weak, and the rebound was feeble, with the rhythm and strength far from expectations. The core drag comes from two aspects: first, young whales in a 1-2 year cycle continue to sell off, with these chips having a low cost and insufficient holding belief, cashing out during rebounds and suppressing upward space; second, the funding for Bitcoin ETFs continues to weaken, with cumulative allocation funds exceeding $60 billion still experiencing net outflows, and profit-taking and repositioning by institutions have put pressure on this round of rebound, losing the resilience and sustainability seen in the past, presenting an overall weak pattern of being “easy to fall and hard to rise.”

1.
The night before last, my 80,000 order was executed, and later I realized I was wrong, so I immediately cut my losses and exited. Although February 2 is a full moon, and in the past few years, most full moons have led to price increases, this time it really might not be the case. The specific situation will depend on the thoughts of large capital regarding short positions, as this is the only reason for a rebound. The market itself is currently very weak.

2.
The ahr999 indicator is currently around 0.4, which is quite exaggerated. It is equivalent to the position of entering the bottom line around June 10, 2022. At that time, BTC dropped from 27,000 to 22,000 that week.
If we view it from the perspective of ahr999's boat-casting method, BTC could still drop by 40%, which means it would ultimately reach around 47,000.

1.
Bitcoin.



This time, Bitcoin has dropped to around 81000 and has not broken the low of around 80000 from November 22.
So, the decline is not enough.
Here we are.
There is a high probability of a further downward pin breaking the last low, which is around 80000, triggering stop-losses for shorts, and then beginning a rebound within the fluctuation range.
Within the fluctuation range of 80000 to 98000, there are three gaps and a potential false breakout position at the top.
The three gaps are 86000, 91800, and 94000. The false breakout position is in the range of 98000-100000.
No matter how bearish one is about the major market in 2026, during each phase of the short term, no one can predict exactly where the market will land; one can only say broadly that even in a bear market there will be some fluctuations.

I.
About investor types.
In his book (The Intelligent Investor), Graham clearly divides investors into two categories: Defensive Investors and Aggressive (Enterprising) Investors, based on the time, energy, professional ability, as well as return goals and risk tolerance logic that investors put in.
1. The Defensive Investor is the type that Graham believes is suitable for the vast majority of ordinary investors, and it is his preferred choice.
This type of investor does not have sufficient time, energy, or professional financial knowledge to conduct in-depth research on securities, does not aim for excess returns, and their core demand is to ensure the safety of principal and obtain stable, long-term returns at the market average level, completely avoiding speculative risks. They should achieve: extreme restraint in investment behavior, infrequent trading, no predictions of short-term market trends, strictly adhering to a margin of safety, and only making high-certainty investment choices.

1.
About gold.
All the groups have been discussing gold these days. I believe many people can relate deeply.
I laid out investments in gold in 2018 and 2019. As the gold price broke through 1250 yuan per gram (around 5450 USD per ounce), profits exceeded 200%.
At that time, I didn't dare to go all in, just heavily invested.
Looking back, I actually didn't understand the whole framework of value investing at that time. If I had understood it then, I would have gone all in on Bitcoin, instead of buying gold, which was too inefficient.
This kind of scene feels like the end of a bull market.
It's best to get the principal out.
Getting the principal out is one way to improve life.

20260128 The last exit opportunity for this round of Bitcoin may not be far away.

1.
Bitcoin's closing last week further clarified the trend of the bear market.
This week, the daily MACD for Bitcoin can reflect a rebound. Wait for a temporary high point, and then you can completely exit the market.
This is the last exit opportunity of this bull market.
Those who like to do short contracts can consider watching for opportunities around 91800 and 94000.
This contract can reach the range of 75000-80000.

2.
One year of bear, three years of bull; the bull moves slowly, the bear moves quickly.
In a bear market, altcoins fall faster than Bitcoin.

1. This morning at 7 o'clock, due to news of a significant reduction in expectations for Trump's tariff war and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Bitcoin suddenly fell below 94700, returning to its previous consolidation range.
The bottom of this range is 80000.
So for now, let's look at 80000.
In the one and a half months prior to this, I repeatedly said that before the real second round of the bear market crash, it would rebound to 98000. On January 15, it reached 97925, so it has basically arrived.
Although a higher position hasn't been reached, from the perspective of a major bear market, a run to 98000 is quite reasonable.
Unless it strongly recovers above 95000 before 8 o'clock on January 20 Beijing time, the second round of the bear market decline will be confirmed.

In the book 'Dao of Duan Yongping', it is mentioned that for NVIDIA, you can place a short-term put option, as the annualized premium is quite attractive.

Today, let's analyze how Dao uses short put options to manage downside risk for high-quality assets, and what insights this strategy offers for dealing with the Bitcoin bear market.

What Duan Yongping means is: sell a small amount of short-term cash-secured put options on NVIDIA, as the annualized premium from short-term options is appealing—earning premium income while also having the opportunity to acquire shares at a lower price for observation purposes.

I. Core Term Breakdown

20250106 Bitcoin Today: Bearish but Don't Short
I.
The big coin is about to hit 98,000, which I've been saying for several weeks.
This is the first wave, and there might be a second wave, pushing toward the 106,000-110,000 range.
I was wrong earlier; I thought we'd need to crush the bulls first before a rise. Now I realize I was mistaken.

II.
Whether it's 98,000 or 106,000, I still believe these levels are minor highs in the first phase of the bear market. It's time to escape.
However, according to value investing principles, be bearish but don't short.

III.
Apart from Venezuela, Iran's situation is also worth watching.

On January 5, 2026, the Swiss Federal Council announced the freezing of all assets of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his associates in Switzerland. This decision was swiftly implemented as a precautionary measure aimed at preventing potential illegal asset outflows. This incident is not isolated but rather a recurring warning in the global financial system: state power can intervene in private wealth at any time, freezing it instantly. Switzerland, known for its banking secrecy and neutrality, was once seen as a 'fortress of wealth' for the global elite, but now actively cooperates with sanctions under international political pressure. This not only targets Maduro personally but also serves as a wake-up call to all who rely on traditional banks to store their wealth: your assets have never truly belonged to you.

1.
Price trends and market performance
Price range: Since the major cryptocurrency fell below $90,000 on November 20, it has been fluctuating between $80,000 and $95,000. The range is approximately 15%. The market faces negative factors such as reduced purchases by ETF and hoarding companies, interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and policy pressures from China, as well as positive factors like the Federal Reserve halting QT and interest rate cuts in December.
Latest market situation (January 2): As buying interest increases, prices have slightly rebounded to around $89,000.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies approaches $3 trillion. The Coinglass Fear and Greed Index is at 27, slightly rebounding, but still in the fear zone.

Before starting the main text, let’s talk about the trend of Bitcoin. As I mentioned in the past few days, Bitcoin has completed a washout at the bottom range with low trading volume and low volatility, slowly breaking through the downtrend line. If it can retest the trend line without breaking below it, there is a high probability of a phase of upward movement. The target remains 98000.
(17:50 sudden addition: just as I was finishing this article, a sudden drop and retest occurred.)

This article is divided into two parts: the first part is a summary of an in-depth interview between YouTuber Derek and Ethereum co-founder, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson (modified based on my AI summary). The second part is my commentary on the interview.