1.
On February 4, 2026, Bitcoin was supposed to have a round of stabilization and rebound from a technical structure perspective, but the market remained weak, and the rebound was feeble, with the rhythm and strength far from expectations. The core drag comes from two aspects: first, young whales in a 1-2 year cycle continue to sell off, with these chips having a low cost and insufficient holding belief, cashing out during rebounds and suppressing upward space; second, the funding for Bitcoin ETFs continues to weaken, with cumulative allocation funds exceeding $60 billion still experiencing net outflows, and profit-taking and repositioning by institutions have put pressure on this round of rebound, losing the resilience and sustainability seen in the past, presenting an overall weak pattern of being “easy to fall and hard to rise.”
II.
Even as institutions and ETFs continue to enter the market, the on-chain and spot trading volume of Bitcoin continues to gradually decline month by month. This is not due to the entry of institutional funds or long-term investors behind them, resulting in a significant surge in trading volume and frequent turnover. This is different from Ethereum. This is precisely the healthiest signal: chips are continuously flowing from exchanges and short-term speculators to long-term holders, hoarders, and institutional cold wallets. Over time, Bitcoin will become more and more concentrated in the hands of a few steadfast holders, and the number of Bitcoins available for circulation on exchanges will only continue to decrease. The supply-demand pattern will continue to tighten, and prices will naturally be pushed higher.
III.
The essence of investing has never been about blindly following trends, but rather about accurately matching one's character and circle of competence with the attributes of the investment target. Everyone has a unique character and a dedicated circle of competence. Only by deeply aligning the two with the investment target can one walk steadily and far. Those who are calm, adhere to the long term, have firm beliefs, avoid superficial concepts, and maintain a down-to-earth attitude are naturally suited for Bitcoin—it requires the patience to traverse cycles, the focus to ignore short-term noise, and the faith to hold long-term. In contrast, those who are impatient, keen on contract speculation, and pursue extreme volatility and quick returns are more suited for high-elasticity, high-volatility targets. Forcing a fit with Bitcoin's long cycle will only go against their nature and exhaust their mindset. The biggest taboo in investing is to easily break through one's circle of competence and chase opportunities that are not understood. We should firmly focus on thoroughly researching areas where we excel and fully understand, first standing firm and achieving success in one direction; this is the core logic of traversing bull and bear markets and achieving long-term gains.
