1.
If we consider the two and a half years after the birth of Bitcoin as a bull market, and the crash that began in the second half of 2011 as the first bear market, then there have been four bear markets (Bear One, Bear Two, Bear Three, Bear Four), four halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), and four halving bull markets.
In October 2025, the fifth halving bull market reached its peak, with a price of 126000.
The relationship between the monthly RSI indicators of the last four bull markets and prices shows a situation of bearish divergence. Prices are gradually rising, but the ability of the RSI values to reach new highs is gradually declining.
On the contrary, the position of the RSI low point continues to create new lows.
Simply put, Bitcoin is not sharp anymore; the bull market's increase does not meet expectations, while the bear market's decline exceeds expectations.
This is easy to understand: as Bitcoin's market value continues to expand, the ratio to the market value of real-world assets continues to shrink, so growth gradually slows down, and the slope of price growth between two bull markets becomes flatter. We connect the low points of the two nearby bear markets to get trend lines (trend line 1, trend line 2, trend line 3).
The lowest point of the bear market is often closely related to the shutdown price of mining machines. Generally, it is slightly lower than the shutdown price of the most advanced equipment.
The current shutdown prices for Bitcoin mining machines range from 38000 to 75000.
According to the price on February 5, 2026, at 4:70:583 PM Beijing time, many mining machines have shut down for a break. Miners save on electricity and other operating costs by directly buying coins, which is more cost-effective.
If the lowest point of the bear market in 2026 still falls in the fourth quarter as it has in previous years, and is still slightly below the shutdown price of the most advanced mining machines (assumed to be 35000), then we can get trend line 4.
Many people have heard that the 2021 Bitcoin bull market was below expectations, primarily because the bull market peak did not break through trend line 1, but it was still relatively close.
The 2025 bull market was even more disappointing, with the peak of the bull market much further from trend line 2, almost failing to reach the midpoint between trend lines 2 and 3.
If the great bull market in 2029 does not reach the midpoint, it will not exceed the amount of 125000.
This means that Bitcoin will form a rounded top structure.
It's like a watermelon hat being put on.
If Bitcoin cannot break the historical high of 126000 in 2029, according to technical analysis trend judgment, Bitcoin will be suppressed in the long term technically. Any new high will become difficult. The fundamentals are already gradually weakening in the face of power.
2.
What is the reason for such a weak situation?
For retail investors in the crypto world, too many speculate rather than invest in Bitcoin, easily giving up their chips, thinking in fiat currency terms, and gradually losing their positions and quantities of Bitcoin during the bull-bear cycles. Some people had good intentions initially, but due to excessive frequent operations, they failed to outperform Bitcoin, leading to a loss in the quantity of Bitcoin holdings.
But I believe another equally significant reason is that the centralized power system has found a way to suppress Bitcoin, which is: if you can't beat them, join them.
They, like gradually occupying gold shares, are continuously occupying Bitcoin shares through confiscation and leveraging institutional power.
It is very likely that Bitcoin will gradually be restricted to a small market value that cannot shake fiat currency, just like gold.
What is the solution?
That is grassroots hoarding of coins.
But it seems that the power of media and education is also not present in the grassroots.
Therefore, the concept and awareness of hoarding coins have not been widely spread among the grassroots.
Many people are still choosing to stand on the side of the stone in the collision between eggs and stones.
Industry leaders like CZ also lack a reverent attitude towards the future of the industry, are short-sighted, and rarely call on everyone to hoard Bitcoin.
3.
So how should we respond?
The first point is that retail investors need to give up short-term operations that do not earn large gains, especially those engaging in short-term contracts, knowing that only one in a thousand people makes money, yet still fantasizing that they belong to that one in a thousand. Instead, they should aim for larger swings to obtain more significant gains. The core idea is to abandon the small swings that are difficult to judge in the middle and not operate on them. Eat the largest bull-bear conversion that happens every four years. It's easy to judge and easy to increase the number of coins. This gives more strength and confidence to counter the fiat currency system's capital occupation of a larger share of the pie. The shorter the operation interval, the less accurate the judgment.
The second point is to spread the correct economics, which is the Austrian School of economics. Saifedean Ammous's two books (The Future of Money) (The Bitcoin Standard) are easy to understand. AHR999's (Hoarding Bitcoin) is also very compelling. Many authors in the self-media circle have their own organized documents or books, such as (A History of Bitcoin), etc. Economic concepts are extremely important, not only including common sense like 'Why gold and Bitcoin can curb the unlimited issuance of coins by a few people to harvest ordinary people' and 'Why even if everyone hoards gold and Bitcoin, the currency needed for market circulation will not be insufficient,' but also fundamentally shaping citizen awareness and property awareness, which further leads to:
The third point is to spread the correct concept of the rule of law. Continuing the political ethics of the Austrian School, the important foundation for human long-term existence and development is the correct concept of property rights protection, which is also the boundary of freedom and can derive action programs and legal frameworks. Too many people are still spreading the erroneous idea that buying Bitcoin is illegal. Therefore, the road ahead is long.
The fourth point is to remain optimistic: in the early stages of the pie's development cycle, there will definitely be a phase of over-narration. Weekly levels show several bull and bear cycles. However, at the annual level, a bear market has not yet been encountered. Historical verification is still needed.
Similarly, AI is currently over-narrating. The efficiency gains of efficiency tools are undeniable. However, the bubble needs to burst once and then be reborn. That's the way.
