Fualnguyen

Looking at Bitcoin over a five-year horizon, the first thing that stands out is not the volatility but the persistence of the trend itself: sharp rallies followed by violent corrections, yet the long-term trajectory remains upward, reminding us that price shocks are structural features of the market rather than signs of failure.

The same logic applies to the broader crypto market, where total capitalization continues to expand over time despite repeated cycles of expansion and contraction, showing that capital does not disappear in crises but is reallocated through periods of stress.

What truly defines these phases is not price decline itself but the psychological pressure created by uncertainty, fatigue, and the cumulative memory of past losses, which pushes market participants into defensive behavior long before long-term value is impaired.

History shows a consistent pattern: major tops are followed by drawdowns of similar magnitude across cycles, not because Bitcoin loses relevance, but because leverage, excess optimism, and mispositioned capital must be reset before a new cycle can emerge.

The reason the Fear & Greed Index can reach historically low levels today is not a single catastrophic event, but the accumulation of tightening liquidity, unresolved trauma from prior crashes, repeated failed expectations, and investor exhaustion, all of which compress sentiment faster than price alone would suggest.

If a major storm is indeed forming and fear has reached extreme historical levels, the real question is not how deep the next drawdown might be, but whether you are positioned to survive it, because markets have always recovered from fear, while investors who confuse volatility with failure are often gone before the next cycle begins.
#Fualnguyen

FUD never appears when markets are euphoric. It always arrives at the most fragile moments: right after key supports break, liquidity thins out, and confidence begins to crack. In these phases, bad news spreads faster than data, emotion overwhelms logic, and most investors react out of fear rather than understanding what they are actually facing. History repeatedly shows that during periods of Extreme Fear, the majority of selling pressure comes from retail participants - those least tolerant of volatility and least patient with time.

When fear escalates, one of the most powerful narratives always resurfaces: the collapse of exchanges. A spike in withdrawals, a wallet reshuffle, or an unverified rumor is often enough to trigger memories of past failures. Yet increased inflows and outflows during volatile periods are normal market behavior, not proof of insolvency. Today’s major exchanges operate with far greater transparency and scrutiny than in previous cycles. In this context, exchange-related FUD is rarely driven by real liquidity gaps - it is driven by collective trauma being reactivated at the worst possible moment.

Closely tied to this is a broader and more dramatic fear: the collapse of the entire crypto market. Every sharp correction, ETF outflow, or industry layoff is quickly framed as proof that “crypto is finished.” In reality, these events usually signal post-expansion rebalancing rather than systemic decay. Markets do not die because prices fall, and technology does not lose relevance simply because a cycle turns downward. Historically, narratives of total collapse peak precisely when long-term accumulation quietly resumes beneath the surface.

While headlines and social media amplify worst-case scenarios, on-chain data tells a very different story. At many major bottoms, coins steadily flow out of exchanges, signaling long-term holding rather than panic selling. Large wallets and long-term holders rarely distribute assets during periods of maximum fear. Instead, they absorb the liquidity created by emotional sellers. This is not luck - it is the result of understanding cycles, understanding capital flows, and accepting volatility as the cost of participation.

Every deep downturn includes a quiet but decisive process: assets transfer from weak hands to disciplined ones. Markets do not eliminate everyone at once. They apply pressure until those unable to endure voluntarily exit the game. Prices may fall sharply, but ownership becomes increasingly concentrated - and that concentration is precisely what lays the groundwork for the next expansionary phase.

No one becomes a strong investor in comfortable, rising markets. FUD is the real test. It forces difficult questions: Do you truly understand what you hold? Do you have a plan, or only hope? Can you maintain discipline when collective fear demands reaction? Those who survive these periods rarely win because they call the exact bottom - they win because they are not forced out of the market.

FUD is not what kills you - it is the fire that reveals whether you are steel or ash.
Markets do not reward those who avoid fear, nor do they punish patience. They do only one thing: they filter. Those who let emotion lead become ash. Those who understand cycles, read data, and maintain discipline are forged into steel - and they are the ones still standing when the fire fades.
#Fualnguyen

In the end, only you and your own intelligence remain. When every indicator loses meaning, when every guiding narrative fades, the market no longer tells you what to buy or sell; it simply places you in front of time itself. Bitcoin and the market do not care whether you are right or wrong, nor do they reward effort or punish emotion. They merely reflect the quality of your thinking through price. Every fluctuation is not a signal, but a hammer strike, forcing you to confront the way you think and react.

MVRV does not exist to help you catch bottoms or sell tops. It exists to stretch cognitive discomfort over time. When MVRV stays in low zones for extended periods, there is no quick reward, no confirmation, no sense of being right. The market deliberately creates a void where intelligence is tested. Those who cannot endure being structurally right but temporally wrong will drop the sword, not because they lost money, but because they could not tolerate uncertainty.

NUPL continues to grind down emotion in a quieter way. It does not measure price; it measures collective psychological state, revealing whether the market is carrying unrealized profit or unacknowledged loss. When NUPL is low, conviction dissolves, patience erodes, and doubt turns inward. This is not a phase for action, but a phase for preserving mental integrity. The market does not need to move price here; time alone is enough to see who walks away.

HODL Waves are the residual trace of those who have already been forged. This data tells no story and gives no advice; it simply records behavior. Cycle after cycle, short-term holdings are continuously eroded, while long-term holdings grow thicker. Not because these holders are smarter, but because they have survived enough attempts by the market to distort their thinking. Ownership is not granted to the fastest actor, but to the one resilient enough not to be eliminated.

The Fear & Greed Index delivers the final cut. When the market enters Extreme Fear, fear no longer appears as panic, but as exhaustion, skepticism, and the desire to exit altogether. At this stage, the market no longer needs violent moves; psychological atmosphere alone is sufficient to push many out. Those who remain do not stay because they are certain of what comes next, but because they refuse to let emotion override intelligence.
Four datasets, four different languages, one message. MVRV forges perception, NUPL sharpens emotional endurance, HODL Waves record survival, and Fear & Greed completes the filtration. Bitcoin does not teach you how to beat the market. It teaches you how not to be defeated by yourself. In the end, Bitcoin and the market are not your enemies; they are blades. And every movement in price is simply another strike in the forging of those strong enough to hold them long enough.
#Fualnguyen

When the crypto market turns bearish, falling prices don’t just erode portfolios - they distort investors’ mental frameworks. In such periods, many people become trapped in debates about a coin’s “intrinsic value,” as if proving that value alone will eventually force the market to acknowledge it.
In reality, this obsession with intrinsic value is often less about rational analysis and more about psychological defense. As uncertainty rises, people instinctively seek a theoretical anchor to counter fear and self-doubt. “Intrinsic value” becomes a mental lifeboat - allowing holders to feel justified, even while the market moves against them.

The problem is that markets do not operate on what makes sense on paper. They operate on capital flows, liquidity, and real-world acceptance. An asset can have solid technology, long-term vision, and an elegant narrative - yet without sustained demand, without continuous cash flow, its price can stagnate or decline for an extended period of time.
In crypto, value is not something waiting to be discovered. It is something that forms over time through repeated use, collective belief, and the ability to translate into tangible benefits. When these elements weaken, continued arguments about intrinsic value only delay an investor’s adaptation to a new market cycle.
BNB 👉 Strength Comes from Being Used, Not Being Explained
BNB is a clear example of the gap between theoretical value and practical value. Across multiple cycles, BNB has rarely been praised for revolutionary philosophy or groundbreaking technology. What keeps BNB resilient is not complex valuation models, but its concrete role within an ecosystem that operates every single day.
BNB is used to reduce trading fees, participate in launchpads, pay fees across the BNB Chain ecosystem, stake, and support a wide range of activities directly tied to user behavior. Every time the Binance ecosystem functions, BNB gains another reason to exist. Its value does not need to be defended with arguments - it is continuously validated through real usage.

During bearish phases, when speculative capital retreats and narratives lose their appeal, most tokens are left with little more than stories. BNB, however, retains structural support because it is embedded in infrastructure: trading, liquidity, and operational activity. Market sentiment may be questioned, but BNB remains necessary for the system to function.
The key distinction is that BNB possesses non-speculative demand. This demand does not rely solely on price appreciation expectations; it comes from BNB being an inseparable component of the ecosystem itself. In crypto, any asset that continues to be used when the market turns cold holds a significant survival advantage.

Real Value Does Not Need to Win Every Argument
BNB illustrates a simple but uncomfortable truth: value is not determined by how well an asset is explained, but by how difficult it is to remove from a functioning system. Once an asset becomes infrastructure, it no longer needs to win every debate - it only needs to continue being used.
The greatest risk for investors is not buying a low-quality asset, but becoming trapped in a mental framework that prevents adaptation when market conditions change. In many cases, “intrinsic value” becomes a psychological anchor, holding people in place while the market has already moved into a completely different phase.
Those who survive long-term in crypto are not the ones who define value most eloquently, but the ones who understand when value is currently needed by the market - and when it is wiser to wait, adapt, or let go, rather than insist on being right.
#Fualnguyen #BNBholic

When prices fall, many believe they are leaving the market. In reality, they are not. They are simply transferring ownership to someone else. Markets do not disappear during moments of panic. They change hands. And when fear dominates decision-making, the buyer is rarely a retail investor.
On-chain data makes this unmistakably clear. During the recent sharp pullback, as Bitcoin dropped below the $60K level, large whale cohorts quietly accumulated roughly 40,000 BTC. Wallets holding 1K-10K BTC and 10K-100K BTC both increased their positions - precisely while much of the market chose to sell in order to relieve psychological pressure.
Supply was not destroyed. It was absorbed.
Around the $69K level, the market is currently carrying unrealized losses equal to roughly 17% of total market capitalization - more than $200 billion sitting in paper losses. This is not a minor shakeout. Historically, this zone marks a phase of confidence erosion, where holders begin questioning whether staying invested is still worth it.
Another critical signal: Bitcoin has traded below the realized price of whale cohorts holding 100 - 1K BTC. Historically, this condition has rarely coincided with whale capitulation. Instead, it tends to define periods where large holders accept drawdowns in order to accumulate, while the market takes time to flush out weak hands.
At the same time, new investor inflows are fading. Fresh capital is not entering the market with enough consistency to drive sustained upside. This explains why price struggles to break higher—not because belief has vanished, but because new money is standing aside. The market is currently functioning through internal redistribution, not external demand.
In the context of previous cycles, this correction is not the deepest, but it is prolonged. This is a correction of time, not price. It does not terrify participants instantly - it exhausts them slowly, until they willingly let go.

And that is when the transfer occurs. When you sell out of fear, you are not escaping risk. You are handing ownership to those with more capital, more patience, and no need for the market to rise tomorrow.

Markets always require sellers to form a bottom. The only real question is: who are you selling to -and why?
#Fualnguyen

Losses are not a failure - they are the minimum cost of admission. This crypto market is built on extreme volatility, where Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen more than 70–80% in every major cycle, and altcoins have been even more brutal. What matters is not the magnitude of the drawdown, but the fact that those who exit in fear almost always return at significantly higher prices. The market does not defeat them through price - it defeats them through their inability to endure.

Fear does not protect you => It pushes you out of the game at the worst possible moment. When emotions take control of investment decisions, the same pattern repeats: selling after a prolonged decline when pain becomes unbearable, staying sidelined when valuations are most attractive, and re-entering only after prices have already recovered. Historical data shows that most retail investors realize losses near market bottoms, not because they lack information, but because they cannot withstand volatility. Fear does not reduce risk - it distorts timing, precisely when timing matters most.Being unafraid of losses is not recklessness => It is conscious risk acceptance. A skilled investor is not someone who never loses, but someone who has already accepted the loss before entering a position. They define risk in advance, size positions so emotions are not compressed under pressure, and understand that large drawdowns are a structural feature of crypto, not evidence of personal failure. When losses are no longer a psychological shock, the market becomes calmer, and decisions become clearer.Once fear retreats, cognitive edge begins to emerge. An investor no longer dominated by fear reads market structure and on-chain data more clearly, remains patient with cycles instead of reacting to every price movement, and feels no need to constantly act just to feel right. Crypto does not reward activity - it rewards composure.
Outperformance does not come from winning often, but from not being eliminated early. The biggest winners in crypto rarely try to be right on every move. Their primary objective is survival. They do not need perfect bottoms or constant accuracy; they only need to avoid being forced out by fear before the cycle pays. Markets consistently reward patience built on understanding.

Ultimately, crypto is a psychological test before it is a technical one. The greatest edge is not found on charts or in news flows, but in the ability to endure volatility without losing oneself. Losses are merely the entry ticket. Fear is the true reason most participants are eliminated. The less you fear loss, the more freedom you have in decision-making - and superior outcomes become a natural consequence of staying in the game long enough.

#Fualnguyen

Some of the most valuable things in the market never announce themselves. They don’t advertise, they don’t tell you to “buy,” and they certainly don’t ask for attention. They simply remain there - empty. In crypto, that empty chair always appears when the majority has already stood up and walked away. And more often than not, that moment is happening right now.
1. When the empty chair appears – the market falls silent
In December 2022, Solana was trading around 10 USD as the market was completely overwhelmed by bad news, from the collapse of FTX to the broader breakdown of the ecosystem. There were no KOLs, no narratives, no convincing bull cases to hold onto. The Fear & Greed Index sank deep into Extreme Fear, below 15, and the market entered a state of near-total silence. No one invited you to buy, no one confirmed you were right, and all that remained was an empty chair and the weight of doubt.
2. Those who sat down before anyone else did
The people who chose to sit in that empty chair were not necessarily smarter than everyone else, but they were willing to act without validation. Solana moved from around 10 USD to over 200 USD in the following year, while Ethereum climbed from the 1.000–1.200 USD range to above 4.000 USD. The reward did not come from being immediately right, but from enduring the discomfort of being trusted by no one while the market looked the other way.
3. The empty chair appears when data contradicts emotion
At such moments, data tends to be colder and more uncomfortable than sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index hovered around 10 out of 100, total market capitalization stood near 2.35 trillion USD, sharply down from its peak, BNB and ETH corrected deeply by 40–50%, and Bitcoin moved sideways long enough to erode patience across the market. There was no FOMO, no certainty, and no invitation - only an empty chair left in a place the crowd no longer wanted to sit.
4. Why most people never sit in that chair
Most investors miss the empty chair not because they lack knowledge, but because human nature craves confirmation. We are conditioned to wait until others sit first, until success is visible, until applause makes the decision feel safe. Yet in investing, once the chair is full, the reward has usually already been distributed.

5. The real lesson of the “empty chair”Opportunities never arrive in the form of clear promises. They come disguised as uncertainty, doubt, and that familiar question: “What if I’m wrong?” If you need reassurance before entering a position, you are likely already too late. But if you can tolerate sitting alone, without applause or validation, you may be exactly where the market has left space.
#fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

I once sold BTC and SOL almost at the peak. A correct decision in terms of the cycle. The cash flow at that time showed strong enthusiasm in the leading coins. Taking profits in BTC and SOL did not come from emotion, but from the realization that the market was preparing to enter a strong bull run phase. If choosing ONDO, there would be a more powerful impact on profits.
The mistake is not there. The mistake lies in the next rhythm. The logic is correct, but the market does not follow the logic. I rolled my capital into ONDO with an assumption that seemed very reasonable: The cash flow after leaving the major foundational coins will move to topcap altcoins, especially projects with long-term narratives related to real assets and institutional cash flow. ONDO meets all the above conditions on paper:

In the crypto market, fear rarely comes from bad news. It comes from time. Time without a rebound. Time watching red numbers sit on your screen. And time listening to the same question echo around you: “What if this time is different?”

Managing fear is not about eliminating emotion. It’s about understanding what you are afraid of—and where that fear sits within the market cycle.
1. The First Fear: “What if this isn’t the bottom yet?”
When price declines deeply and for a long time, the greatest fear is not losing money—it’s buying too early. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) reflects this state perfectly.

In past cycles, whenever NUPL moved into negative territory, the majority of the market entered a phase of unrealized losses. Not everyone sold immediately, but confidence quietly eroded. What matters is this: deep negative NUPL zones usually appeared before the bottom was confirmed, not after.
This fear is purely psychological. There is no confirmation, no certainty—only the same thought repeating itself: “What if it goes lower?” Those who cannot tolerate uncertainty stay on the sidelines. Those who can endure ambiguity begin to build positions slowly.
2. The Second Fear: “I’m already too deep in the red”
If the first fear is doubt, the second is pain. Drawdown shows how much damage the market has absorbed, while SOPR reveals whether participants are selling at a profit or a loss.

When SOPR stays below 1, it means most selling is happening at a loss. This is no longer theoretical fear—it is fear reflected directly in portfolios. At this stage, emotions shift from anxiety to exhaustion. The dominant desire is no longer to optimize, but simply to escape.
Historically, deep drawdowns do not end with sudden panic, but with prolonged fatigue. People sell not because of new bad news, but because they can no longer endure waiting.
Managing fear here is not about predicting the bottom. It’s about position sizing. An oversized position turns normal volatility into a psychological crisis.
3. The Final Fear: “Everyone is selling”

When fear spreads, it becomes visible on-chain.
Rising exchange inflows signal one thing clearly: coins are being moved to exchanges to be sold.
Major inflow spikes often coincide with sharp declines, when the crowd stops thinking in terms of long-term strategy and focuses solely on capital preservation. The paradox is that selling pressure does not last forever. Once most fearful participants have sold, supply begins to dry up.
At this stage, fear is no longer individual - it becomes collective. And that is often when the market starts to stabilize - not because good news appears, but because there is no one left who urgently needs to sell.
🚀🚀🚀 Fear Never Disappears—It Only Changes Shape. In crypto, fear is constant:
• Fear of buying too early
• Fear of being deeply underwater
• Fear of selling at the wrong time
The difference between those who survive cycles and those who leave the market is not the absence of fear, but the ability to understand where that fear comes from.
Charts do not remove fear. But they reveal whether your fear is shared by the crowd.
And when fear becomes common, the advantage often belongs to those who remain patient ==> long after patience feels uncomfortable.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

The crypto market is not merely a sequence of price increases and declines; it is an ongoing process of evolving investor mindset. Each cycle leaves clear fingerprints in the data - how capital flows, how risk is priced, and how conviction is tested. When these data points are viewed together across time, it becomes evident that crypto has not matured simply because time has passed, but because investors have collectively paid heavy tuition fees in every cycle.
2010–2013: Belief Comes Before Data

In crypto’s earliest phase, analysis barely existed. Bitcoin’s price rose sharply while total market capitalization remained extremely small, trading volume was thin, and institutional participation was nonexistent. On long-term charts, Bitcoin appreciated exponentially even as on-chain data were rudimentary and the market consisted almost entirely of BTC.
This perfectly reflected investor thinking at the time: people bought because they believed in a new idea, not because of models, indicators, or cycle theory. There was no real concept of risk management, nor any urgency to take profits. Alpha in this cycle came from being early and holding long enough, not from investment skill. The market rewarded conviction, not sophistication.
2014–2017: Narrative Dominance and the Collapse of BTC Dominance

After the post-2013 crash, crypto entered its first true awakening. Ethereum emerged, ICOs exploded, and capital began rotating out of Bitcoin into new narratives. During this period, Bitcoin dominance declined sharply while the market capitalization of “Others” surged, clearly showing speculative capital shifting away from BTC.
The dominant mindset was the belief that technology automatically translated into profit. Whitepapers, roadmaps, and long-term visions were treated as guarantees of valuation. The decline in Bitcoin dominance signaled rising systemic risk, even as surface-level enthusiasm remained extremely high. This cycle delivered a crucial lesson: narratives can push prices rapidly, but when capital reverses, valuations collapse without protection.
2018–2021: Cleansing, Accumulation, and the Power of Liquidity

The 2018–2019 crypto winter was a brutal cleansing phase. Market capitalization shrank dramatically, trading volume dried up, and most altcoins lost nearly all their value. Yet this was precisely when data began to speak more clearly. Market cap did not disappear entirely, Bitcoin dominance gradually stabilized, and long-term holding behavior improved.
From 2020 to 2021, global monetary easing flooded risk assets with liquidity, and crypto became one of the primary beneficiaries. Market capitalization expanded in waves, volume surged, and the Fear & Greed Index swung violently between extreme fear and extreme greed. The data showed that the market no longer moved linearly, but according to a clearer capital-flow structure.
Investor thinking also diverged sharply. One group believed “this time is different,” while another focused on liquidity, volume, and capital cycles. The core lesson of this phase was clear: crypto rallies hardest when money is cheap, not when the story is the most compelling.

2022–Present: Maturity, Risk Management, and Survival

From 2022 onward, the market entered its most profound transformation. After a series of systemic collapses, capital became far more selective. Bitcoin dominance rose and remained elevated, reinforcing BTC’s role as the system’s anchor asset. Market capitalization became clearly layered: Bitcoin as the core, stablecoins as liquidity reservoirs, and altcoins as highly cyclical, high-volatility instruments.
The Fear & Greed Index repeatedly dropped into extreme fear, yet total market capitalization no longer collapsed as it had in prior cycles. Fear no longer signaled the end of the market, but rather periods of redistribution. Long-term cycle indicators such as the Pi Cycle Top suggest that the market has not yet entered its final euphoric phase, despite meaningful price recoveries.
Investor mindset in this era has shifted from “being right” to not losing big. Position sizing, cycle awareness, and capital preservation have become the new alpha. Crypto is no longer a playground of blind faith or collective FOMO—it is a survival game for those who understand where they stand within the market structure.
🚀🚀🚀
Looking back from 2010 to today, crypto does not repeat prices, but it repeats human behavior, each time in more refined forms. Investment thinking has evolved from belief, to narrative, to liquidity, and finally to disciplined survival. The market does not reward the smartest or the fastest participants ==> it rewards those flexible enough to adapt their thinking as data and conditions change.
In crypto, surviving multiple cycles is far more important than winning big in any single one.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermAnalysis

The halo never disappears, it only fades when belief runs ahead of reality. In every market cycle, investors ask the same question - too early and almost always for the wrong reason. They wait for the halo to return as if it were a signal, a permission slip to believe again. But the market has never worked that way. The halo does not return when prices stop falling; it returns when the market truly stops bleeding.

History is brutal, yet remarkably consistent: the halo never appears at the bottom. After every major Bitcoin drawdown, belief only begins to recover once price has already reclaimed 30–50% from the lows. By then, fear is no longer strong enough to force selling, but not weak enough to inspire confidence; it mutates into doubt and hesitation. The crowd is no longer panicking, yet no longer certain that staying on the sidelines was the right decision. The halo does not emerge at the point of maximum despair, but at the moment people realize they may already be late. Price is forgiven before belief has time to return.

On-chain data exposes a truth many charts prefer to hide: markets do not recover when volatility subsides, but when losses are actually realized. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio makes this painfully clear. At cycle peaks, profits dominate, the ratio expands, and confidence grows loud; when cycles break, that ratio collapses - sometimes violently. As of early 2026, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen sharply from the euphoric levels of mid-2025 and now hovers around a zone where profits barely exceed losses. This is not recovery; it is digestion. The halo cannot return while the market is still swallowing its own mistakes. Only when realized losses slow - when sellers are no longer forced but exhausted - does the market regain the capacity to believe.

The most misunderstood phase of every cycle is the quiet one. After the crash, after the headlines fade, and after even the optimists grow tired of explaining why “this time is different,” the market slips into silence. Volatility compresses, price moves sideways, and nothing seems to happen - until it does. The halo does not arrive during explosive rallies or moments of capitulation; it forms during prolonged indifference. When the market forgets how to scream, it slowly remembers how to trust.
The halo does not belong to those who perfectly call the bottom or exit at the top, but to those who survive the middle. They are the investors who preserve capital, who manage position size instead of chasing conviction, and who remain present when belief has disappeared. The halo does not reward bravery ==> it rewards endurance.

The halo will return - this has never changed. But it will not return because the market suddenly feels optimistic again; it will return because the market no longer needs optimism to function. And by the time everyone can see it, the halo already belongs to those who waited without asking for permission.
#Fualnguyen
#LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

In times of heightened market volatility, statements from high-profile figures and large corporations can easily lure retail investors into a dangerous trap: comparing themselves to players who operate under completely different conditions.

Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, currently holds 713,502 BTC and is carrying an unrealized loss of more than $4.5 billion. Thanks to its long-term capital structure, access to financing, and multi-year investment horizon, this level of drawdown does not create immediate liquidation pressure.
Saylor can continue to hold, communicate his thesis, and maintain conviction without being forced to react to short-term price movements. Strategy stated that its financial position remains sound; according to CEO Phong Le, the balance sheet would only face serious debt risk if Bitcoin fell to around $8,000 and stayed there for 5–6 years. Recent losses are largely accounting losses on paper rather than real cash stress or forced selling, and Michael Saylor believes threats such as quantum computing are still far off and can be mitigated through protocol upgrades.

Similarly, Tom Lee’s Bitmine holds approximately 4.2 million ETH and is currently facing unrealized losses exceeding $7.5 billion. Tom Lee has openly stated that he does not focus on short-term price action, as his strategy is built around long-cycle theses and a level of drawdown tolerance that retail investors simply do not have.
But they are not like us.
Retail investors cannot afford to absorb multi-billion-dollar losses. We operate with personal capital, face direct psychological pressure from market swings, and lack the financial buffers, cheap leverage, and time flexibility available to large institutions. A 30–40% drawdown is often enough to distort decision-making; a 50–60% loss can permanently impair an account within a single cycle.
On-chain data reinforces this contrast. Bitcoin exchange inflows on Binance have risen sharply during recent price weakness, indicating that coins are being moved to exchanges as fear increases -a classic sign of selling pressure from retail and short-term holders. In contrast, exchange outflows have not increased meaningfully, suggesting an absence of aggressive accumulation by large funds or long-term holders at this stage.

This divergence reveals a clear reality: short-term pressure is being borne by retail participants, not by institutions. While companies like Strategy or Bitmine can continue to withstand massive unrealized losses on paper, retail investors do not have the luxury of repeated mistakes.
The real question, then, is not whether Bitcoin or Ethereum will eventually recover. The real question is whether we will still be in the game when they do.
Retail investors must reassess their true position and act accordingly: reduce position size, prioritize risk management, trade with discipline, and accept that institutional strategies are not meant to be copied.

They can afford to hold through billions in losses. We cannot. Different position.
Different rules. Not like us.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

On Binance charts, AVL (Average Value Line) is not merely a line that shows the average cost. At a deeper level, AVL represents the strongest price conflict zone between buyers and sellers, the area where market control is decided in each phase of the cycle.
Unlike MA or EMA - which simply smooth price data - AVL is updated on every single candle, directly reflecting trading behavior and the profit–loss state of the majority of participants.

How AVL Is Formed and Why It Moves
AVL is continuously recalculated based on:
The transaction price within each candleTrading volumeThe balance between new buyers and sellers
Every candle close represents a re-pricing of the market’s average cost basis.

High-volume candles can shift AVL significantly, while low-activity sessions barely move it.
That is why AVL is not a short-term trading tool, but rather a map of market psychology and capital flow.
AVL as the Market’s Strongest Conflict Zone
AVL represents the price level where:
Buyers consider the price “fair”Sellers see an opportunity to “get back to breakeven”
As a result:
Above AVL: buyers are in control, most holders are in profit, selling pressure is lowBelow AVL: sellers dominate, most holders are at a loss, and every rebound faces selling pressure
For this reason, AVL is always the most intense battleground, and how price behaves around it determines the next trend.
Reading Price Behavior Around AVL

Price Below AVL – AVL Sloping Down
The majority of the market is in a losing positionSellers control price actionAVL acts as dynamic resistance
This is the typical structure of a bear market or markdown phase.

AVL Hugging the Lower Body of Candles
Price opens and is sold continuously, closing near the lowsAVL fails to move up and often declines alongside price
This signals:
Buyers lack the strength to absorb supplyNew buyers accept progressively lower pricesThe downtrend is confirmed, not just short-term volatility
Price Testing AVL From Below
AVL becomes the direct collision point between buyers and sellersRejection → technical rebound / bull trap
Sustained acceptance above AVL → early cycle transition

Applying AVL to BTC and BNB
BTC
Price remains below AVLAVL is sloping downward and consistently rejects reboundsLong red candles appear alongside rising volume
This indicates:
Holders from the prior uptrend are underwaterEach rebound triggers “sell-to-breakeven” pressureBTC is in a distribution → markdown phase
==> The downtrend is confirmed, with no transition signal as long as AVL keeps falling.
BNB
Price is below AVL by a wider margin than BTCAVL is declining faster and shows no reaction to reboundsStrong bearish candles suggest forced position exits
This reflects:
BNB is underperforming BTC in terms of capital flowNew buyers lack convictionSelling pressure is more aggressive
==> BNB is weaker than BTC and more vulnerable during the decline.
Quick Comparison via AVL
BTC: weak, but still the market’s core anchorBNB: structurally weaker, under greater stress
Both assets are trading below the AVL conflict zone, where sellers currently dominate.

AVL is not just an average cost line - it is the frontline where buyers and sellers collide.

#Fualnguyen

In investing, a manchild is not someone who lacks knowledge, nor someone with limited capital.
A manchild is someone who cannot tolerate prolonged uncertainty ==> who constantly needs the market to validate their emotions on a daily basis.
They may understand technical analysis, read on-chain data, and even memorize past market cycles - yet they fall apart when price fails to move in their favor quickly enough. When the market drops, they buy out of fear of missing the bottom. When price goes sideways for too long, doubt creeps in. And when the market dips again, they are exhausted - right before real opportunity appears.
Manchildren are not eliminated by one violent crash. They are eliminated by time - by psychological erosion, and by repeated decisions driven by emotion rather than discipline. That is why the current market is not for manchildren.

A –50% Drawdown Won’t Kill You. Time Will.
Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, before correcting to the $63,000–$68,000 range—roughly a –50% drawdown.
Historically, this does not qualify as a full-fledged bear market. It is better described as a mid-cycle drawdown. For comparison:
2013–2017: ~–84.5%, recovery ~24 months2017–2020: ~–84%, recovery ~24 months2021–2024: ~–77%, recovery ~16 monthsCurrent cycle: ~–50%, not yet resolved
The real danger here is not the depth of the decline, but the duration of the pain. The market does not need to crash further to do damage ==> it only needs to drag on long enough.

Who Is Selling, and Who Is Buying? On-Chain Data Is Very Clear
Santiment data reveals a structure that is typical of weakening markets:
Whale & shark wallets (10–10,000 BTC): Now hold only 68.04% of total BTC supply, a 9-month low, after selling approximately 81,068 BTC in just 8 days. This suggests that large capital has no urgency to defend price, nor any pressure to reaccumulate yet.Shrimp wallets (<0.01 BTC): In contrast, small retail wallets have increased their holdings to 0.249% of total supply, a 20-month high. The absolute number is small, but the psychological signal is clear: retail continues to buy the dip.
In short, smart money is distributing while retail is trying to stay hopeful ==> a structure that has preceded nearly every bear phase in Bitcoin’s history.
Retail Has Not Capitulated - and That’s the Problem
Indicators such as Net Realized Profit/Loss show that realized losses are increasing, but true capitulation has not yet occurred. Retail participants continue to buy dips, convinced that prices are already “cheap,” and expecting a fast recovery. Historically, durable market bottoms rarely form while the crowd still believes. Markets usually bottom only when:
Confidence is fully erodedBuy-side liquidity dries upAnd the majority of retail participants accept defeat and leave
Until that happens, there is little incentive for smart money to step back in aggressively.

This Is Where Manchildren Get Eliminated
In investing, manchildren tend to:
Break down during prolonged drawdownsDCA emotionally, without proper position sizingConstantly ask “Is this the bottom yet?” instead of “Can I survive this?”Exit the market right before conditions truly improve
Mature investors, by contrast, understand that:
Survival matters more than short-term returnsDoing nothing is also a decisionAnd patience is an edge - not passivity
This cycle does not reward those who buy the most, shout “hold” the loudest, or act the bravest.
It rewards only one group: Those who survive the painful phase. And that is why: The current market is not for manchildren.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

#Fualnguyen
The crypto market is entering a critical phase in which price movements are no longer driven purely by greed or fear, but by a broader process of rebalancing after a major trend. At this stage, no one can accurately predict the market’s fate, yet higher-timeframe structures suggest several possible scenarios ahead.

The first scenario is the Bottoming Phase, where price moves sideways within a wide range and volatility remains elevated but increasingly controlled. Selling pressure gradually fades as weak hands are forced out, while smart money quietly accumulates with a long-term mindset, focusing on position building rather than catching the exact bottom. This phase often feels slow and unrewarding, but it lays the groundwork for the next growth cycle.
Within this broader process, the market may also experience a Dead Cat Bounce, characterized by sharp relief rallies following extended declines. These moves often create the illusion that a new uptrend has begun, driven by short covering and short-term retail optimism, while the underlying market structure remains fragile. As price approaches key resistance levels, liquidity returns and distribution takes place, turning apparent strength into a technical rebound rather than a genuine trend reversal.

The final scenario is the Breakdown Phase, which occurs when long-term support levels fail, triggering widespread liquidations and panic-driven selling as leverage is flushed out of the system. Although emotionally painful, this phase often represents the final cleansing of a cycle, where excess risk is removed and true value begins to emerge.
The fate of the market is not decided in a single trading session, but shaped over time by cycles and capital flows. While investors cannot control which scenario ultimately plays out, they can control their exposure to risk. In the most uncertain periods, the primary objective is not to maximize profits, but to preserve capital, maintain discipline, and remain in the game long enough to participate in the next cycle. You can’t decide the fate of the market, but you can decide your own survival.
#Fualnguyen

In a prolonged market downturn, the hardest part is not taking losses, but controlling behavior once the trend has already broken. Over the past period, Bitcoin has repeatedly led investors into “bottom-fishing” attempts. Each decline looked deep enough to believe a bottom was in place, yet in reality, those moves were merely lower steps within a broader, weakening structure.

From the peak around $97,000, Bitcoin successively broke through major support levels at $86,000 and $73,000, before dropping toward the $60,000 area and staging a technical rebound back to roughly $66,000–$76,000. The issue is not how many percentage points price has fallen, but the fact that the market continues to form lower lows, indicating that current buying pressure is still insufficient to reverse the trend.
On the weekly timeframe, the technical picture becomes clearer. Bitcoin has lost its long-term uptrend structure after decisively breaking below the MA50 and MA100. This is no longer a standard pullback within an uptrend, but a signal that medium- to long-term momentum has materially weakened. In previous cycles, when price traded below these moving averages, the market typically required an extended consolidation phase or further downside before a true bottom was formed.
At present, the weekly MA200 around the $57,000 level stands as the last remaining long-term support. This is not a guaranteed buy zone, but rather an area where a technical reaction may occur due to the convergence of long-term defensive flows. However, MA200 only acts as support as long as it holds. In a more negative scenario, if MA200 fails decisively, the long-term defensive structure would be invalidated.
In that case, based on higher-timeframe Bollinger Bands, the lower band around the $53,000 region becomes a technically plausible area for the market to search for a new equilibrium. This is not a price prediction, but a reasonable technical scenario should the downtrend extend and selling pressure remain unresolved.

It is precisely in this environment that DCA must be re-examined carefully. DCA during a prolonged downtrend is not inherently wrong, but DCA without discipline is extremely dangerous. The most common mistake is allocating capital evenly over time and buying most aggressively during sharp sell-offs under the assumption that price has already “discounted enough.” This approach does not reduce risk—it only increases position stress while the trend remains unfinished.

Proper DCA in a weakening market must be executed based on confirmation, not emotion. When the trend is weak and volatility remains high, position sizes should be small. Only when price demonstrates the ability to hold long-term support levels, volatility compresses, and the market stops making lower lows should exposure be increased. DCA volume matters more than DCA frequency, because deploying the largest capital when uncertainty is highest is simply another form of catching a falling knife.
Even if the market appears exhausted after an extended decline, that does not mean a bottom has formed. In this phase, patience matters more than bravery. Bottom-fishing is not about aggressive buying, but about observing, preserving capital, maintaining psychological resilience, and waiting until probabilities begin to shift in your favor. A bottom is only confirmed after it has passed, and those who survive long enough are the ones who get to participate in the next cycle.
Don’t catch a falling knife. Let the knife settle on the floor - then pick it up.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment