I once sold BTC and SOL almost at the peak. A correct decision in terms of the cycle. The cash flow at that time showed strong enthusiasm in the leading coins. Taking profits in BTC and SOL did not come from emotion, but from the realization that the market was preparing to enter a strong bull run phase. If choosing ONDO, there would be a more powerful impact on profits.
The mistake is not there. The mistake lies in the next rhythm. The logic is correct, but the market does not follow the logic. I rolled my capital into ONDO with an assumption that seemed very reasonable: The cash flow after leaving the major foundational coins will move to topcap altcoins, especially projects with long-term narratives related to real assets and institutional cash flow. ONDO meets all the above conditions on paper:
• Belongs to the hot trend RWA group
• Narrative aligned with the cycle
• Not garbage coins, not memes
My average entry price is about $0.8. The plan is to DCA, wait for altseason confirmation, and enjoy the rest of the cycle. But the market does not operate according to the previous cycle's presentation slide.
Altseason does not arrive just because everyone believes it will. Altseason does not start when: Investors begin to talk about it with a narrative that is pretty enough. Altseason only appears when: BTC completes its rally phase, BTC dominance clearly weakens, and the market has real profits to cycle, where new liquidity is willing to take on higher risks.
BUT at the moment I bought ONDO, THE RULES OF THE GAME HAD COMPLETELY CHANGED. ONDO is not weak – but it was placed in the wrong period and its aura cannot shine at this moment in the overall market weakness.
When the market is not ready for altseason to revive, even 'good' altcoins only have one role: to absorb selling pressure. Result: portfolio down 70%
I did not lose because I chose the wrong coin. I lost because:
• Betting on the old scenario
• Betting on 'what will happen' instead of 'what is happening'
• Confusion between long-term vision and short-term timing
True to a previous statement that I didn’t really understand: The market does not reward those who are right early. It only rewards those who are right at the right time.
A costly lesson
1. Altseason is not a belief – it is a market state.
2. Narratives do not activate capital flows, new liquidity does that.
3. A good coin cannot save a wrong timing.
4. Keeping money in alt when the market is not risk-on is no different from voluntarily standing in the sacrifice zone.
Conclusion
Selling BTC and SOL at the peak was the right decision. But rolling capital into topcap altcoins when the market doesn't allow it and without maintaining a safe cash ratio, along with poorly sized positions, is a price to pay for being overly confident ahead of the crowd.
This is not a story about ONDO.
This is a lesson about the timing of altseason – where merely going bias into a single bullrun scenario, the advantage will turn into losses. And in this market, being right early does not mean being right.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment
