周期捕手

Today is February 13th, also the Day of Turn of Fortune. On this auspicious day, I send out a lucky packet 🧧🧧🧧.
Wishing everyone in 2026:
Good luck aligns with every auspicious moment,
Prosperity abounds in every fruitful year!

Happy Turn of Fortune Day! 🧧🧧🧧
Wishing everyone in 2026:
Good luck aligns with every auspicious moment,
Prosperity abounds in every fruitful year!

Notes

After all

Beibeijia

Progress

666

Date

666

666

Quantification

666

66

I am the "Cycle Catcher". Beyond the full screen of K-line charts and emotional calls, I only trade macro cycles and liquidity logic.

Today's market volatility scared off speculators, but it also serves as a touchstone for validating trading systems. Sending a red envelope 🧧🧧🧧, not for anything else, but to recharge a bit of "emotional value" for those who are still present and maintaining rationality as traders.

Remember: Volatility is the source of Alpha, and panic is often a smokescreen from the main forces. Don't fall before dawn, hold onto your chips.

After receiving the red envelope, give a follow. In the upcoming market trends, I will guide you through the bull and bear markets with data.

$13 million bet on "America's shutdown"! A reminder to all brothers placing contracts: this time it’s not about easy money, it's a "life-or-death question"

Don't just get excited about that $13 million bet on Polymarket. I've seen many people shouting "a shutdown is good news" and "buying Bitcoin mindlessly." Take my advice, don’t get overly excited.

Look at this chart. Funding amount $13,592,778, and the shutdown probability has surged to 75%. What does this indicate? It indicates that Wall Street is convinced something big will happen this Saturday (January 31). But in the eyes of seasoned traders, this kind of extreme certainty often means extreme carnage.

1. Why is the risk so huge? You must understand that the ICE shooting incident has completely torn apart the two parties, and this shutdown is not a play; it's real. What the market fears most is not bad news, but uncertainty. Before the shoe drops on Saturday, the major players will definitely use this news to create severe volatility to avoid risk and clear leverage. A spike of several thousand points can easily blow up any high leverage (even 5x).

2. Don't sacrifice yourself for "belief" Many brothers think "the dollar's decline = Bitcoin soars," and the logic is correct; that's a long-term matter. But what about the short term? If panic spreads and the US stock market crashes, bringing Bitcoin down by 10% first, can your position handle it? That $13 million is a hedge for the major players, while you are going all-in with your entire fortune; this is providing liquidity to the market.

In the current market, not trading is profit. When facing this level of macro black swan, you only need to do two things:

Reduce leverage, or even go to cash. Don’t gamble your life at this critical moment.

Control your hands. Don’t rush to bottom fish at the sight of a spike; there may be lower prices below.

Brothers, the worst part of a bull market is not missing the bus, but falling to the last spike before dawn. In this shutdown crisis, survive first, then talk about making money.#BTC #周期捕手

Gold has reached $5082, and Bitcoin is still pretending to be dead? Don't panic, this is a good thing.

Today the market looks quite frustrating: Next door, gold surged to $5082, silver stood above $100, all breaking new highs crazily. Then look at our $BTC , which is just sitting there like nothing is happening.

Many brothers are asking me in the background: Is the crypto market done for? Wrong. Very wrong. If you understand the flow of funds, this is the most standard 'starting gun'.

1. Old Money is fleeing. Look at the aircraft carriers in the Middle East, then look at the collapsing USD/JPY exchange rate. At this time, the first reaction of traditional institutions is definitely to buy gold. This instinct for hedging is ingrained in their bones. The surge in gold prices indicates that panic has been confirmed.

2. Overflow effect (New Money) However, gold is too expensive now. When these big players find that the cost-effectiveness of gold has decreased, and they dare not take their money back to fiat currencies, where will they go? There’s only one destination: the 'digital gold' that hasn’t risen yet. This is the classic 'catch-up logic'—the elder brother (gold) has opened up the space, and the younger brother (BTC) will follow; it's just a matter of time.

3. Don't forget that 'insider' Purely for hedging, BTC indeed can't compete with gold. But don't forget the trump card: BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is also a top contender for the Federal Reserve Chair. This adds a layer of buff to BTC that gold doesn’t have—the treatment of being the 'golden child' of liquidity expectations.

Conclusion: This current 'gold price surge, $BTC pretending to be dead' gap is the last window the market offers to smart people. Fiat currency is destined to depreciate. Gold is the vanguard, $BTC is the main force. Only by enduring solitude can one hold onto prosperity.

Gold $5050, Aircraft Carrier Enters the Middle East: The U in Your Hand is Turning into Waste Paper

This morning, after reading this batch of news, I only felt a chill run down my spine. If you still can't understand the current market situation, I suggest you take a look at the outside world and not just stare blankly at that one K line.

1. The Tombstone of Fiat Currency Credit: Gold $5050. The recently released data shows that spot gold has surpassed $5050, rising by $730 in a single month! Silver has also stabilized at $100. What does this indicate? It indicates that the smart money globally is frantically selling paper currency and buying 'hard assets' without regard for cost. In their eyes, fiat currency is already on a countdown.

2. The War Machine Starts: The aircraft carrier is in position. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group 'Lincoln' has arrived in the Middle East, and the Iranian military is on high alert. On one side, a geopolitical conflict is about to erupt, while on the other, the Federal Reserve may undergo a personnel change (BlackRock executive Rieder is gaining popularity). This is not just turmoil; it is a violent reorganization of the global financial order.

When gold is skyrocketing, the consolidation of $BTC is merely a temporary suppression, the calm before the storm. The overflow effect of funds is inevitable. Old money buys gold, new money buys Bitcoin.

The current consolidation is the last time window for those who have not yet exchanged U for chips. Don't wait until the cannon fire really starts, and due to panic, the on-chain congestion occurs before you remember to look for Noah's Ark. #BTC #周期捕手 #避险资产

Is BlackRock Taking Over the Federal Reserve? This Chart Reveals the Secret!

Stop staring at those boring interest rate cut news. The real 'ghost story' is hidden in this funding game chart from Polymarket.

1. What happened? Look at the chart. Just in the past few days, the blue line representing Rick Rieder shot up directly, with the probability soaring to 51%, leaving the previous favorite Kevin Warsh (30%) far behind. This is the result of $250 million in real cash being thrown into the game, and such a volume of funds doesn't lie.

2. Why is this important? Who is Rick Rieder? He is the Global Head of Fixed Income at BlackRock. What does it mean if he becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve? It means 'BlackRock + Fed = The Golden Age of Crypto'. BlackRock is the great benefactor that pushed BTC into Wall Street; with their own people in power, will there be a lack of liquidity?

Hunter Logic: The market has already made a move. While everyone is still discussing the lagging indicator of 'not cutting interest rates for now', the smart money is already betting on the super favorable news of 'BlackRock Fed'.

The logic of this round of increase has changed. $BTC is not about rising inflation; it's about rising expectations of 'our people taking office'. #BTC #美联储何时降息？ #周期捕手

$ETH is still in a downtrend? The main players have been eyeing this "fat meat" for a long time.

Many people ask me: $ETH 2950 can we catch the bottom? Old hands advise you to first look at two charts, don’t rush to send money.

1. The trader's table (heat map) Open the liquidation map, and you will find a glaring yellow line around 2920-2930. There is a pile of countless long stop-loss bets on a rebound at this position. Coupled with the negative news of a "government shutdown", do you think the main players will kindly let go of this piece of fat meat at their lips? If they don’t break through here, the main players won’t push the market up.

2. The attitude of funds (CVD) Looking at the CVD data, the downward red trend cannot deceive anyone. This indicates that there is currently an extreme lack of active buying, and Smart Money is still on the sidelines.

Now, 2950 is an awkward position in the "meat grinder". Be patient. When the market panics due to the shutdown and drops down to liquidate 2920 or even 2860, that will be our moment to pick up bloodied chips.

Remember: trading is not about who buys faster, it’s about who can still survive even after a drop.#ETH #周期捕手

Is the risk of a government shutdown back again? This time, there's an added 'Japan variable'.

I just saw the news that the U.S. Senate is stirring things up again, vowing to obstruct funding, and the clouds of government shutdown are drifting back in.

Many brothers get excited when they hear 'shutdown', thinking it's a good sign. But don't rush to gamble; let me tell you the truth.

1. Don't forget the pain of 2025. Many only remember 'the shutdown as the starting point of a bull market' but conveniently forget the process. The first day of the shutdown in 2025 was a false signal, followed by a slow decline, and the worst was on the day it was announced to end, which led to a direct market crash. The current state is 'possible shutdown'; this uncertainty is exactly what the main players like as a tool for shaking out positions. If you purely gamble on a shutdown to open positions, you might easily get caught in the moment the news breaks.

2. The real game-changer is 'Tokyo'. The biggest difference this time compared to 2025 is Japan. On one side, the U.S. government may shut down (internal conflict), while on the other side, the Japanese Prime Minister is calling for currency rescue, and the U.S. Treasury is even preparing for joint intervention.

Do you understand the logic behind this?

Shutdown risk = Market panic, capital wants to flee.

Currency intervention = The U.S. must sell dollars to save the yen.

Hunter's strategy: Regardless of whether there is a shutdown or not, the major trend of a 'weak dollar' has already been forced out by Japan. The main players are currently using 'shutdown panic' to press down prices, which actually helps to build momentum for $BTC and $ETC .

Conclusion: Don't focus on news headlines to make trades. If in the next few days a deep pit is created due to 'concerns about a shutdown', remember, it's to facilitate the subsequent liquidity drama of 'selling dollars to save the yen'. If it dares to drop, I dare to buy. #BTC #周期捕手 #宏观分析