Is the risk of a government shutdown back again? This time, there's an added 'Japan variable'.

I just saw the news that the U.S. Senate is stirring things up again, vowing to obstruct funding, and the clouds of government shutdown are drifting back in.

Many brothers get excited when they hear 'shutdown', thinking it's a good sign. But don't rush to gamble; let me tell you the truth.

1. Don't forget the pain of 2025. Many only remember 'the shutdown as the starting point of a bull market' but conveniently forget the process. The first day of the shutdown in 2025 was a false signal, followed by a slow decline, and the worst was on the day it was announced to end, which led to a direct market crash. The current state is 'possible shutdown'; this uncertainty is exactly what the main players like as a tool for shaking out positions. If you purely gamble on a shutdown to open positions, you might easily get caught in the moment the news breaks.

2. The real game-changer is 'Tokyo'. The biggest difference this time compared to 2025 is Japan. On one side, the U.S. government may shut down (internal conflict), while on the other side, the Japanese Prime Minister is calling for currency rescue, and the U.S. Treasury is even preparing for joint intervention.

Do you understand the logic behind this?

Shutdown risk = Market panic, capital wants to flee.

Currency intervention = The U.S. must sell dollars to save the yen.

Hunter's strategy: Regardless of whether there is a shutdown or not, the major trend of a 'weak dollar' has already been forced out by Japan. The main players are currently using 'shutdown panic' to press down prices, which actually helps to build momentum for $BTC and $ETC .

Conclusion: Don't focus on news headlines to make trades. If in the next few days a deep pit is created due to 'concerns about a shutdown', remember, it's to facilitate the subsequent liquidity drama of 'selling dollars to save the yen'. If it dares to drop, I dare to buy. #BTC #周期捕手 #宏观分析