$13 million bet on "America's shutdown"! A reminder to all brothers placing contracts: this time it’s not about easy money, it's a "life-or-death question"

Don't just get excited about that $13 million bet on Polymarket. I've seen many people shouting "a shutdown is good news" and "buying Bitcoin mindlessly." Take my advice, don’t get overly excited.

Look at this chart. Funding amount $13,592,778, and the shutdown probability has surged to 75%. What does this indicate? It indicates that Wall Street is convinced something big will happen this Saturday (January 31). But in the eyes of seasoned traders, this kind of extreme certainty often means extreme carnage.

1. Why is the risk so huge? You must understand that the ICE shooting incident has completely torn apart the two parties, and this shutdown is not a play; it's real. What the market fears most is not bad news, but uncertainty. Before the shoe drops on Saturday, the major players will definitely use this news to create severe volatility to avoid risk and clear leverage. A spike of several thousand points can easily blow up any high leverage (even 5x).

2. Don't sacrifice yourself for "belief" Many brothers think "the dollar's decline = Bitcoin soars," and the logic is correct; that's a long-term matter. But what about the short term? If panic spreads and the US stock market crashes, bringing Bitcoin down by 10% first, can your position handle it? That $13 million is a hedge for the major players, while you are going all-in with your entire fortune; this is providing liquidity to the market.

In the current market, not trading is profit. When facing this level of macro black swan, you only need to do two things:

Reduce leverage, or even go to cash. Don’t gamble your life at this critical moment.

Control your hands. Don’t rush to bottom fish at the sight of a spike; there may be lower prices below.

Brothers, the worst part of a bull market is not missing the bus, but falling to the last spike before dawn. In this shutdown crisis, survive first, then talk about making money.#BTC #周期捕手