Aman Sai

Investment bank Standard Chartered has turned cautious on the near-term outlook for cryptocurrencies, warning that bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 and ether could drop to around $1,400 before a meaningful recovery begins. The revised forecast reflects ongoing pressure from ETF outflows, weak macro conditions, and broader risk-off sentiment across global markets.
Lower Short-Term Targets, But Long-Term Optimism Intact
The bank has reduced its end-2026 price targets, now expecting bitcoin to reach $100,000 instead of $150,000 and ether to climb to $4,000 rather than the previously projected $7,500. Despite this downgrade, Standard Chartered maintained its long-term bullish stance, keeping its ambitious 2030 projections of $500,000 for BTC and $40,000 for ETH unchanged.
ETF Outflows and Macro Headwinds Driving Downside Risk
According to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, recent crypto weakness could persist as investors who entered through ETFs at higher prices may choose to reduce exposure rather than buy the dip. Holdings of bitcoin ETFs have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC from their peak in October 2025, with the average entry price around $90,000, leaving many investors sitting on sizable unrealized losses.
These losses, combined with a fragile macro environment, are increasing the likelihood of further selling pressure in the coming months.
Broader Market Weakness Adds to Pressure
The crypto market has already seen a notable pullback in early 2026, with bitcoin dropping roughly 23% year-to-date and total market capitalization declining sharply. Heightened volatility, large liquidations of leveraged positions, and growing correlation with weakening equity markets have all contributed to bearish sentiment.
Macro concerns , including slowing global growth, uncertain interest-rate outlooks, and delayed regulatory clarity in key markets like the U.S. , have pushed investors toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, reducing appetite for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
No Major Platform Collapses This Cycle
Despite the downturn, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current drawdown appears less severe than previous crypto bear markets. Unlike earlier cycles, the market has not witnessed major platform collapses, suggesting that the digital asset ecosystem may be maturing and becoming more resilient over time.
At its worst point in early February, bitcoin had fallen about 50% from its late-2025 all-time high, yet roughly half of the circulating supply remained in profit , a sign that structural demand remains relatively strong.
Recovery Expected After Capitulation Phase
While the bank anticipates a near-term capitulation phase, it expects prices to recover gradually once a clear bottom is established. Kendrick noted that improving liquidity conditions, clearer regulatory frameworks, and renewed institutional participation could support a rebound through the rest of 2026.
In essence, Standard Chartered’s outlook suggests that the current weakness may represent a cyclical correction rather than a breakdown of the long-term crypto thesis. Short-term volatility and downside risks remain elevated, but the bank continues to view digital assets as a constructive long-term investment class driven by structural adoption trends and expanding real-world use cases.

Bitcoin’s path to a sustained recovery may not be as smooth as many investors hope. Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin has cautioned that the market could still face another wave of downside, with BTC potentially revisiting the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before forming a durable bottom.
Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, Terpin argued that the current market behavior is unfolding almost exactly in line with historical crypto cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events.
Skeptical of Optimistic Bottom Calls
Terpin dismissed recent predictions that bitcoin had already found its bottom at $80,000 or even $60,000. He described such calls as premature and overly optimistic given the fragile macro and market conditions.
“When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous,” Terpin said. He added that expecting a quick rebound from $60,000 levels also appeared “too soon.”
Instead, he believes the market likely has “one more point of pain” left before a true recovery begins.
Bitcoin Cycles Still Following Historical Patterns
According to Terpin, bitcoin’s price movements continue to mirror its well-known four-year cycle anchored around the halving. The halving reduces the reward miners receive roughly every four years, cutting new supply issuance and reinforcing bitcoin’s scarcity , a core driver behind its long-term value narrative.
Historically, this supply shock has preceded major bull markets, but not without a period of volatility and correction first.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin said, noting that prior cycles have shown a consistent pattern: a bubble peak followed by a gradual unwind.
Post-Halving Bubble Followed Its Typical Arc
Terpin pointed out that in previous cycles, the speculative peak typically occurs nine to eleven months after the halving, followed by a correction phase. In the current cycle, the bull market peak arrived in the fourth quarter after the halving , almost perfectly aligned with historical timing.
He drew a close comparison to the last cycle, where bitcoin’s highs were recorded on Nov. 10, 2021, and the market bottom came almost exactly one year later following the FTX collapse on Nov. 10, 2022.

This consistency, he argues, suggests that the present downturn should not be viewed as abnormal but rather as part of bitcoin’s natural cycle progression.
Fragile Market Could See Another Dip
While Terpin did not forecast a prolonged multi-year bear market, he warned that the environment remains fragile. Macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment could still push bitcoin lower before a true recovery phase begins.
His outlook implies that a retest of the $50K–$40K range would not necessarily invalidate the long-term bull thesis but could instead represent a final shakeout before the next sustained uptrend.
Long-Term Thesis Remains Intact
Despite the near-term caution, Terpin remains confident in bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals. The halving mechanism continues to reduce inflation and cap total supply at 21 million coins, reinforcing its narrative as “digital gold.”

#dyor #NFA✅

Binance has completed the full conversion of its $1 billion Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) into bitcoin, marking a significant shift in how the exchange structures its core user-protection reserve. With the acquisition of a final tranche of 4,545 BTC, SAFU now holds 15,000 BTC, valued at roughly $1 billion at the time of completion.
Strategic Rationale
Originally backed by a diversified mix of assets including stablecoins, SAFU is now fully denominated in bitcoin. The transition reflects Binance’s long-term conviction in BTC as the most reliable and liquid reserve asset within the digital asset ecosystem. The exchange has also committed to replenishing the fund should its value fall below $800 million, ensuring continued resilience against market volatility.
Execution Timeline
The conversion was executed over a planned 30-day period following Binance’s late-January announcement to reallocate $1 billion in stablecoin reserves into BTC. An early on-chain transfer of approximately 1,315 BTC from hot wallets to SAFU on Feb. 2 signaled the start of the transition. The process concluded on schedule with the final purchase, demonstrating disciplined treasury execution.
Industry Significance
This move positions Binance among a growing cohort of institutions adopting bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. As inflation concerns persist and yields on traditional assets remain constrained, BTC is increasingly viewed as a long-term store of value comparable to digital gold. By aligning its core safety net with bitcoin, Binance is reinforcing confidence in BTC’s durability, liquidity, and global acceptance.
Conclusion
The full conversion of SAFU into 15,000 BTC represents a landmark treasury reallocation by a major crypto exchange. Beyond enhancing user protection, the decision underscores Binance’s strong institutional belief in bitcoin as the premier long-term reserve asset, potentially setting a precedent for how other crypto platforms structure their strategic reserves going forward.

A growing wave of high-risk crypto trading among Gen Z investors may not be reckless speculation , it may be a rational response to a system they believe is broken.
Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong, David Pakman described the phenomenon as “economic nihilism,” arguing that younger generations are embracing leveraged crypto products because traditional wealth-building paths are increasingly out of reach.
Locked Out of Traditional Wealth
Pakman pointed to housing affordability as a central issue.
For Gen X and baby boomers, the average home cost roughly 4.5 times annual income. For Gen Z, that figure has climbed closer to 7.5 times income.
With home ownership , long considered the cornerstone of middle-class wealth , becoming unattainable for many, younger investors are reevaluating how to build financial security. Only 13% of 25-year-olds own homes today, while more than half of Gen Z investors reportedly hold crypto assets.
Rational Risk-Taking
Rather than viewing the trend as irrational gambling, Pakman framed it as strategic risk-taking.
“If the traditional pathways to long-term wealth creation are effectively closed off, then a small chance at a large return may feel more rational than the near certainty of stagnation,” he explained.
This mindset is driving participation in high-volatility products such as:
Crypto perpetual futuresMemecoinsZero-days-to-expiration optionsPrediction markets
A $100 Trillion Derivatives Explosion
One of the clearest signs of this shift is the explosive growth in crypto perpetual contracts , futures products with no expiration date.
According to data shared during the presentation, crypto perpetuals saw approximately $100 trillion in notional trading volume last year.
Prediction markets have also surged dramatically, growing from $100 million in volume to $44 billion within three years. While some activity centers around political forecasting, a significant majority of current volume is tied to sports-related markets.
A Generational Shift in Financial Behavior
The broader takeaway is that Gen Z’s embrace of risk is not simply speculative enthusiasm , it reflects structural economic frustration.
Rising living costs, student debt burdens, housing shortages and inflation have shaped a generation that questions whether traditional financial systems can deliver upward mobility.
In that context, decentralized markets offering high leverage and asymmetric upside become appealing alternatives.
A Call for Better Infrastructure
Pakman concluded that the crypto industry has a responsibility to build products that allow risk expression in more transparent and fair ways.
Lower fees, clearer disclosures and improved risk management tools could help ensure that this surge in participation strengthens , rather than destabilizes , the broader digital asset ecosystem.
As traditional wealth pathways narrow, Gen Z’s pivot toward crypto derivatives may represent not just a trend, but a structural transformation in how risk and opportunity are defined.

Ethereum extended its recent selloff on Wednesday, raising concerns that further downside could be ahead as derivatives data and technical indicators point to weakening demand. Analysts warn that ETH could be at risk of a 30% decline if key support levels fail to hold.
Ethereum Slides Amid Weak Market Conditions
ETH fell 3.3% to around $1,950, marking its fourth consecutive week in the red. The broader crypto market remains under pressure as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dampened expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
With the U.S. economy adding 130,000 jobs in January and unemployment falling to 4.3%, traders have reduced bets on monetary easing , a development that has weighed on risk assets, including crypto.
Ethereum is now down more than 60% from its all-time high, reflecting the intensity of the ongoing crypto winter.
Futures Open Interest Hits Multi-Month Low
One of the biggest warning signs for Ethereum is the sharp drop in futures open interest.
Data from derivatives markets shows that ETH futures open interest has fallen to approximately $23 billion , the lowest level in nine months. At its 2025 peak, open interest exceeded $70 billion.
Open interest is widely viewed as a measure of leverage and market participation. A declining figure suggests that traders are closing positions and reducing risk exposure.
Historically, falling open interest during a price decline often signals continued downside momentum rather than accumulation.
Funding Rates Turn Negative
Further reinforcing the bearish outlook, Ethereum’s weighted funding rate has slipped into negative territory at -0.0067%, its lowest level in days.
Funding rates in perpetual futures markets represent the fee paid between long and short traders. A negative funding rate typically indicates that short sellers are dominant and that market participants expect lower prices ahead.
ETF Outflows Add Pressure
Institutional demand also appears to be weakening. Ethereum-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have reportedly recorded over $94 million in net outflows this month, marking the fourth consecutive month of withdrawals.
The consistent outflows suggest cautious positioning among larger investors amid ongoing volatility.
Technical Breakdown Signals Further Risk
From a technical perspective, Ethereum has broken below a key support level at $2,113, invalidating a previously forming inverted head-and-shoulders pattern , a structure that is typically considered bullish.
Additional indicators reinforce the bearish setup:
ETH is trading below all major moving averages.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues trending downward.The Average Directional Index (ADX) is rising, signaling strengthening trend momentum.

If the current downtrend continues, analysts suggest that ETH could target the $1,340 level , roughly 30% below current prices and near its 2025 lows.
However, a move above the $2,200 resistance level would invalidate the bearish scenario and potentially signal a recovery attempt.
Outlook
With leverage declining, funding rates negative, ETF flows weakening and technical support levels breaking, Ethereum faces a critical juncture. Whether buyers step in near current levels or allow the downtrend to deepen may determine the next major move in the market.
For now, the balance of indicators leans bearish as the crypto winter shows few signs of easing.

#dyor #NFA✅

The brief recovery in crypto markets has quickly unraveled, with Bitcoin slipping back below $66,000 as last week’s sharp rally loses momentum. What appeared to be a powerful rebound is increasingly being viewed by analysts as a temporary “dead cat bounce” rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
Bitcoin Slides Again
After plunging to $60,000 late last Thursday, Bitcoin staged a nearly 20% surge on Friday, climbing close to $72,000. However, the optimism proved short-lived.
By mid-morning U.S. trading Wednesday, Bitcoin was down more than 4% over the past 24 hours, trading just under $66,000. Major altcoins also declined:
Ether (ETH) dropped roughly 5.5%Solana (SOL) fell about 5.5%XRP slid 3.5%
The broader crypto market continues to struggle for sustained buying interest.
Strong Jobs Data Dampens Rate Cut Hopes
The latest downturn coincides with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. January job growth came in at 130,000 , nearly double economist forecasts , while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%.
Following the report, traders sharply reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts:
March rate cut odds fell to just 6%April rate cut odds dropped to 23%
Before the data release, markets were pricing in much higher probabilities of monetary easing.
However, some analysts argue that fading rate-cut hopes alone cannot explain crypto’s weakness, as the current bear market began in 2025 even while the Fed was cutting rates.
Investor Interest Appears to Fade
Beyond macroeconomic pressure, there are growing signs that investor enthusiasm for crypto is waning.
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest has fallen 51% from its October 2025 peak, signaling a significant retreat in trader conviction and leverage.
In contrast, traditional markets are showing strength. South Korea’s Kospi index recently hit record highs, with monthly trading volume up 221% year-over-year. Meanwhile, crypto exchange trading volumes have declined approximately 65% over the same period.
Analysts describe the trend as an “exit-crypto” movement, with retail investors shifting capital toward more active equity markets.
Crypto-Linked Stocks Under Pressure
The weakness is also evident in crypto-related equities:
Robinhood (HOOD) dropped 12.5% after reporting a decline in crypto trading revenue.Coinbase (COIN) fell 7% ahead of its earnings release.Strategy (MSTR) declined 4.5%.Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) fell 3.8%.Circle (CRCL), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), and Bullish (BLSH) also traded lower.
There was little green across the crypto equity sector, underscoring the broad-based retreat from digital asset exposure.
Outlook
With equities, gold, and other assets showing resilience, investors appear to be reallocating capital away from crypto , at least for now. Whether this represents a temporary rotation or a deeper structural shift in sentiment remains uncertain.
For the moment, Bitcoin’s inability to sustain its rebound above $70,000 keeps the market firmly on the defensive, with traders closely watching whether the $60,000 support zone will hold in the days ahead.

#dyor #NFA✅ $BTC

Bitcoin slipped toward the $66,000 level as traders positioned themselves ahead of the closely watched U.S. January jobs report. Market participants are bracing for potential volatility as Wall Street anticipates a rise in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), a key indicator that could influence Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations.
Bitcoin Under Pressure Ahead of Jobs Report
Bitcoin (BTC) declined nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, trading around $66,900 after touching a low near $66,561. The pullback comes as investors adopt a cautious stance before the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases January’s Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate data.
The broader crypto market also weakened. Major altcoins including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, BNB, Solana (SOL), and (ADA) fell between 3% and 5%, reflecting heightened risk aversion across digital assets.
Wall Street Forecasts Modest Payroll Growth
Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added approximately 70,000 jobs in January, up from 50,000 in December. While this suggests modest improvement, it still reflects a cooling labor market compared to earlier cycles.
Estimates range widely , from a loss of 10,000 jobs to a gain of 135,000 , highlighting uncertainty around the labor market’s direction. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month.
Major financial institutions remain divided:
JP Morgan Securities, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Citigroup anticipate stronger-than-expected payroll numbers.Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, and Morgan Stanley expect softer data.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations at Stake
Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently price in roughly a 50% probability of a 25 basis-point cut next month.
Higher payroll growth would signal economic resilience, potentially delaying monetary easing. Conversely, weaker data could reinforce bets that the Fed will begin cutting rates sooner.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 96.61, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.13%, reflecting mixed signals across financial markets.
Liquidations and Market Sentiment
Market analytics platform Kaiko noted that the recent crypto drawdown triggered nearly $9 billion in liquidations. Stablecoin dominance climbed above 10%, suggesting traders are rotating into cash-like assets amid uncertainty.

However, trading volume trends indicate disengagement rather than outright panic selling, pointing to cautious positioning rather than capitulation.
Technical Outlook: Key Support at Risk
Analysts such as Ted Pillows emphasize that Bitcoin is currently trading near a critical support zone. If the $66K region fails to hold, BTC could retest last week’s lows near $60,000.
#dyor #NFA✅

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is urging the crypto and artificial intelligence industries to rethink how they converge, warning that the race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) risks repeating the same problems of unchecked speed, centralization, and concentration of power that blockchain technology was designed to resist.
In a recent post on X, Buterin revisited ideas he first shared two years ago, arguing that the current push toward ever-more powerful AI systems mirrors a “move fast at all costs” mindset. According to him, this approach overlooks broader questions around human freedom, security, and long-term societal impact.
Slowing Down the AGI Race
Rather than focusing solely on building stronger and more autonomous AI systems, Buterin believes the priority should be guiding AI development responsibly. He stresses the need to avoid both catastrophic long-term AI risks and more immediate, everyday failures such as data leaks, misuse, and overreliance on centralized providers.
In his view, the challenge is not just technological, but philosophical: choosing a direction that distributes power more evenly and preserves individual autonomy instead of accelerating blindly toward AGI.
Ethereum as Infrastructure for AI
Buterin outlined a near-term vision where Ethereum could serve as a key , though not exclusive , layer of infrastructure for AI systems. He highlighted several practical use cases, including:
Privacy-preserving AI access, such as running models locally or interacting with them without revealing personal dataAnonymous or pseudonymous payments for AI services, reducing reliance on centralized intermediariesCryptographic verification, allowing users to check how AI systems behave rather than trusting providers blindly
These tools, he argues, could help shift AI away from closed platforms toward more transparent and user-controlled systems.
Enabling AI-to-AI Coordination
Beyond human use, Buterin also described how Ethereum could enable economic coordination between AI agents. Using blockchain-based mechanisms, AI systems could pay one another, post security deposits, build reputations, and resolve disputes without depending on a single company or authority.
Combined with AI tools that help humans evaluate decisions and outcomes, this framework could finally allow long-discussed concepts like decentralized governance to function at real-world scale.
Choosing Direction Over Acceleration
Summing up his position, Buterin emphasized that both Ethereum and his vision for AI share a common goal: intentional progress rather than unchecked acceleration.
“To me, Ethereum, and my own view of how our civilization should do AGI, are precisely about choosing a positive direction rather than embracing undifferentiated acceleration,” he wrote.
His message positions Ethereum not as a solution to all AI challenges, but as a foundation that could help steer AI development toward openness, accountability, and long-term human benefit.

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded consecutive daily inflows for the first time in nearly a month, signaling a potential shift in investor sentiment after weeks of sustained outflows.
According to data from SoSo Value, U.S. bitcoin ETFs attracted a combined $616 million over two sessions. The inflow streak began on Friday with $471.1 million, followed by an additional $144.9 million on Monday. The move snapped a redemption trend that had persisted since mid-January.
The renewed inflows coincided with bitcoin’s price rebound from a recent low near $60,000 to around $70,000, suggesting investors may be stepping back in after the sharp correction.
ETF Holdings Show Resilience Despite Price Drawdown
While bitcoin has suffered a steep decline from its October peak, ETF holdings have remained relatively stable. In mid-January, bitcoin climbed to nearly $98,000 after a two-week rally from $87,000 before entering a sharp sell-off that dragged prices down to $60,000. That downturn prompted heavy withdrawals from spot ETFs.
However, longer-term data points to continued confidence among institutional and large investors. On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain shows that cumulative assets under management (AUM) across the 11 U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have declined by only around 7% since early October, falling from approximately 1.37 million BTC to 1.29 million BTC.
In contrast, bitcoin’s spot price is down more than 40% from its October highs above $126,000, highlighting a growing divergence between ETF holdings and market price performance.
A Signal of Long-Term Conviction
The relatively modest reduction in ETF-held bitcoin, despite a deep price correction, suggests that investors using ETFs may be maintaining a longer-term outlook rather than reacting to short-term volatility. The return of back-to-back inflows reinforces the view that institutional demand remains intact, even amid challenging market conditions.
If inflows continue, the trend could mark an early sign of stabilization for the broader bitcoin market after weeks of pressure.
#dyor #NFA✅

Bitcoin’s rebound from last week’s steep sell-off has been accompanied by a subtle improvement in one of the market’s key indicators tracking U.S.-based demand, though the signal remains tentative rather than decisive.
Bitcoin has climbed back to just under $70,000, recovering more than 15% from its intraday low near $60,000. Despite the bounce, the asset is still down more than 10% on the week, highlighting that the recovery remains fragile.
U.S. Spot Market Premium Moves Toward Neutral
A closely watched U.S. spot market premium, which measures the price gap between bitcoin traded on major U.S.-based exchanges and the global market average, has rebounded sharply from deeply negative levels.
At the height of last week’s sell-off, the premium fell to around -0.22%, signaling heavy selling pressure or sidelined positioning from U.S. investors. By Tuesday, the gap had narrowed to roughly -0.05%, suggesting that U.S. buyers cautiously stepped in as forced liquidations and panic selling began to ease.
U.S.-based spot markets are widely viewed as a proxy for institutional and dollar-denominated flows. A deeply negative premium typically reflects risk aversion or active selling by U.S. participants, while a move back toward neutral often signals selective dip buying.
Dip Buying, Not a Full Risk-On Shift
While the premium’s rebound indicates renewed interest at lower price levels, it has not turned positive , a threshold that historically aligns with sustained accumulation and stronger risk appetite among U.S. funds.
Instead, the current move points to measured, selective buying rather than broad conviction. Investors appear to be testing demand near recent lows rather than aggressively rebuilding exposure.
This stabilization followed bitcoin’s fastest drawdown since the FTX collapse in 2022, a stress event that continues to serve as a reference point for market participants.
Market Structure Still Fragile
Market structure data supports the cautious interpretation. Aggregate trading volumes across major exchanges remain well below late-2025 highs, indicating that participation has not fully returned.
Liquidity also remains thin, allowing prices to rebound quickly once selling pressure fades , but leaving the market vulnerable to renewed downside if follow-through demand fails to materialize.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s rebound has been accompanied by early signs of returning U.S. demand, suggesting buyers found value near recent lows. However, with the premium still below neutral and volumes subdued, the move reflects cautious dip buying rather than a confirmed risk-on reversal.
For now, U.S. demand appears to be flickering back , not fully switched on.
#dyor #NFA✅

Bitcoin rebounded sharply during U.S. trading hours on Monday, climbing back above the $70,000 mark after dipping to just over $68,000 earlier in the day. The move broke a recent pattern of U.S.-session weakness, with buyers stepping in decisively by early afternoon.
At its intraday high, bitcoin surged more than 3% from the day’s low to around $70,800, leaving it modestly higher over the past 24 hours.
Bernstein: “Weakest Bitcoin Bear Case in History”

Wall Street research firm Bernstein used the pullback as an opportunity to reaffirm its bullish stance, reiterating a $150,000 year-end price target for bitcoin.
“What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history,” wrote Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani.
Chhugani argued that the latest bout of market anxiety reflects a familiar cycle rather than any structural breakdown. “Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel; the media is back again to write an obituary,” he said, adding that time “remains a flat circle on Bitcoin.”
Broader Crypto Market Firms
The rebound in bitcoin lifted the broader crypto complex:
Ether rose about 1.5%XRP gained close to 1.5%Solana also advanced roughly 1.5%
Risk appetite improved across markets as well, with U.S. equities trading higher. The Nasdaq climbed about 1%, while the S&P 500 added 0.5%.
Watching Miners for the Market Bottom
Adding a technical lens, Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli noted that bitcoin selloffs have historically found a floor near miners’ cost of production.
As prices fall, less efficient miners often shut down operations, pushing mining difficulty lower. When difficulty begins rising again, it has historically signaled that a market bottom may be forming.
That framework gained relevance after bitcoin mining difficulty recorded its largest drop since 2021, suggesting at least partial miner capitulation during the recent slide.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s swift recovery above $70,000 has reinforced the view among bulls that recent volatility reflects sentiment-driven noise rather than a fundamental breakdown. With miners capitulating, equities rallying, and Bernstein standing firm on a $150,000 target, the market narrative is shifting back toward resilience , even as short-term swings remain part of the journey.

Recent speculation around a potential U.S. government bitcoin buying spree has added confusion to an already volatile crypto market, but officials and existing policy make one thing clear: there is currently no mechanism for the federal government to buy bitcoin at any price level.
The rumors gained traction over the weekend after Jim Cramer suggested on air that President Donald Trump could begin filling a U.S. bitcoin reserve if prices fall to $60,000. While the comment briefly caught the attention of crypto traders, it is not supported by the current legal or policy framework in Washington.
A Bitcoin Reserve That Doesn’t Yet Exist
Although Trump did sign an executive order directing the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve, that action did not immediately establish one. Federal agencies have spent months auditing existing government-held crypto assets, largely consisting of bitcoin seized through civil and criminal enforcement actions. However, officials have acknowledged that Congressional authorization is still required to formally create a reserve under U.S. law.
So far, no such legislation has passed. Recent crypto-related bills , including stablecoin regulation and broader market structure proposals , have not included provisions for a federal bitcoin reserve. With Congress already stretched thin, industry lobbyists say a reserve is currently not a top legislative priority, trailing behind market oversight and crypto tax clarity.
No Taxpayer-Funded Bitcoin Buying
Trump administration officials have repeatedly emphasized that the government does not plan to use taxpayer money to buy crypto. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced this position during Congressional hearings last week, stating plainly that he has no authority to bail out bitcoin or order financial institutions to purchase digital assets.
Instead, Trump’s executive order specifically instructed federal agencies to stop selling seized crypto, allowing confiscated assets to be set aside for a future reserve if and when one is legally established.
Why the Rumor Mattered to Markets
Bitcoin recently dipped as low as $62,840 before stabilizing near $70,000. If markets believed the U.S. government would step in as a buyer at $60,000, it could have created a perceived price floor. However, there is no “buy button” inside the federal government capable of triggering such a move.
As of now, estimates suggest the U.S. government holds roughly $23 billion worth of bitcoin, according to blockchain analytics data, but these holdings stem from asset seizures , not active purchases.
Legislative Ideas, No Execution Yet
Some policymakers, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, have proposed ways for the government to acquire bitcoin without using taxpayer funds. However, those proposals have not advanced, and Lummis has announced plans to retire after this year, further dimming prospects for near-term progress.
Meanwhile, several U.S. states have moved more quickly, exploring or establishing limited bitcoin reserve authority at the state level—highlighting how federal action continues to lag.
Bottom Line
Despite market chatter and televised speculation, the reality remains unchanged: the U.S. government is not currently positioned to buy bitcoin, at $60,000 or any other price. Until Congress creates a legal framework and funding mechanism, any talk of federal bitcoin accumulation remains hypothetical rather than actionable.