Bitcoin’s rebound from last week’s steep sell-off has been accompanied by a subtle improvement in one of the market’s key indicators tracking U.S.-based demand, though the signal remains tentative rather than decisive.
Bitcoin has climbed back to just under $70,000, recovering more than 15% from its intraday low near $60,000. Despite the bounce, the asset is still down more than 10% on the week, highlighting that the recovery remains fragile.
U.S. Spot Market Premium Moves Toward Neutral
A closely watched U.S. spot market premium, which measures the price gap between bitcoin traded on major U.S.-based exchanges and the global market average, has rebounded sharply from deeply negative levels.
At the height of last week’s sell-off, the premium fell to around -0.22%, signaling heavy selling pressure or sidelined positioning from U.S. investors. By Tuesday, the gap had narrowed to roughly -0.05%, suggesting that U.S. buyers cautiously stepped in as forced liquidations and panic selling began to ease.
U.S.-based spot markets are widely viewed as a proxy for institutional and dollar-denominated flows. A deeply negative premium typically reflects risk aversion or active selling by U.S. participants, while a move back toward neutral often signals selective dip buying.
Dip Buying, Not a Full Risk-On Shift
While the premium’s rebound indicates renewed interest at lower price levels, it has not turned positive , a threshold that historically aligns with sustained accumulation and stronger risk appetite among U.S. funds.
Instead, the current move points to measured, selective buying rather than broad conviction. Investors appear to be testing demand near recent lows rather than aggressively rebuilding exposure.
This stabilization followed bitcoin’s fastest drawdown since the FTX collapse in 2022, a stress event that continues to serve as a reference point for market participants.
Market Structure Still Fragile
Market structure data supports the cautious interpretation. Aggregate trading volumes across major exchanges remain well below late-2025 highs, indicating that participation has not fully returned.
Liquidity also remains thin, allowing prices to rebound quickly once selling pressure fades , but leaving the market vulnerable to renewed downside if follow-through demand fails to materialize.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s rebound has been accompanied by early signs of returning U.S. demand, suggesting buyers found value near recent lows. However, with the premium still below neutral and volumes subdued, the move reflects cautious dip buying rather than a confirmed risk-on reversal.
For now, U.S. demand appears to be flickering back , not fully switched on.
