Bitcoin’s path to a sustained recovery may not be as smooth as many investors hope. Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin has cautioned that the market could still face another wave of downside, with BTC potentially revisiting the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before forming a durable bottom.
Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, Terpin argued that the current market behavior is unfolding almost exactly in line with historical crypto cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events.
Skeptical of Optimistic Bottom Calls
Terpin dismissed recent predictions that bitcoin had already found its bottom at $80,000 or even $60,000. He described such calls as premature and overly optimistic given the fragile macro and market conditions.
“When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous,” Terpin said. He added that expecting a quick rebound from $60,000 levels also appeared “too soon.”
Instead, he believes the market likely has “one more point of pain” left before a true recovery begins.
Bitcoin Cycles Still Following Historical Patterns
According to Terpin, bitcoin’s price movements continue to mirror its well-known four-year cycle anchored around the halving. The halving reduces the reward miners receive roughly every four years, cutting new supply issuance and reinforcing bitcoin’s scarcity , a core driver behind its long-term value narrative.
Historically, this supply shock has preceded major bull markets, but not without a period of volatility and correction first.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin said, noting that prior cycles have shown a consistent pattern: a bubble peak followed by a gradual unwind.
Post-Halving Bubble Followed Its Typical Arc
Terpin pointed out that in previous cycles, the speculative peak typically occurs nine to eleven months after the halving, followed by a correction phase. In the current cycle, the bull market peak arrived in the fourth quarter after the halving , almost perfectly aligned with historical timing.
He drew a close comparison to the last cycle, where bitcoin’s highs were recorded on Nov. 10, 2021, and the market bottom came almost exactly one year later following the FTX collapse on Nov. 10, 2022.
This consistency, he argues, suggests that the present downturn should not be viewed as abnormal but rather as part of bitcoin’s natural cycle progression.
Fragile Market Could See Another Dip
While Terpin did not forecast a prolonged multi-year bear market, he warned that the environment remains fragile. Macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment could still push bitcoin lower before a true recovery phase begins.
His outlook implies that a retest of the $50K–$40K range would not necessarily invalidate the long-term bull thesis but could instead represent a final shakeout before the next sustained uptrend.
Long-Term Thesis Remains Intact
Despite the near-term caution, Terpin remains confident in bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals. The halving mechanism continues to reduce inflation and cap total supply at 21 million coins, reinforcing its narrative as “digital gold.”
