CAPGOLDROGER

There is a Good Reason I have the 1 to 1 Follow policy Pinned to my portfolio

Straight call – no bearshit, no bullshit
Current reality at 69,377:
This is not a bottomThis is not accumulationThis is not a healthy pullback
This is a very deep, very ugly downtrend that is still in progress.Key facts right now:
Price is ~35–40% below the late-2025 high (depending on exact peak)
We just made new lower lows on the daily and weekly timeframesWe are far below every meaningful long-term moving average (MA99 ~90k, MA200 even higher)The structure is lower highs + lower lows since December 2025Volume on the current bounce is mediocre — not conviction buyingThe big green volume spike you see at the bottom was forced short covering + late dip-buying, not new strong hands stepping in
Where we actually areWe are in the middle–late stages of a proper bear phase after a parabolic top.
Not the beginning. Not the end. Somewhere in the painful middle.Most realistic near-term outlook (next 1–6 weeks):
Choppy, heavy downside bias
→ rallies get sold aggressively
→ every 3–7% bounce looks like “the reversal” until it doesn’tNext real support zones are much lower65,000–66,500 (weak, lots of people waiting there)60,000–62,000 (psychological + previous major shelf)55,000–58,000 (very possible if panic accelerates)Below 55k opens the door to 48–52k regionWhat would actually change the picture (very short list)Daily close above 72,000–73,000 with strong volume and shrinking downside candlesMultiple days of higher lows + higher highsClear shift in funding rates, Coinbase premium, ETF flows
Until that happens → we are still in the path of least resistance = down.Bottom line – no hopium versionThis still looks like the meat of a real correction / bear market leg.
Not capitulation yet.
Not reversal yet.
Just pain.Survive first.
Small size or no size.
No revenge longs.

No “this is the bottom because I Am tired” trades.
That’s what the chart is actually saying today.

No fluff. No agenda.

THE REAL TALK – WHAT THE CHART IS ACTUALLY SHOWING
We are in a classic post-pump exhaustion / distribution zone.
The violent bounce from 60k → 71.7k already happened.
Now we are grinding lower inside the range and losing steam fast.Key observations right now:
Price is below MA(7) ~69,250–69,260Price is very close to or already under MA(25) ~68,860–68,865Price is fighting exactly around MA(99) ~69,666 → this is make-or-breakVolume is not impressive on the green attempts → weak buyersHigher timeframe (daily / weekly) still very corrective / bearish structure
DIRECTION – MOST PROBABLE NEXT 1–4 DAYS
Bearish lean – medium confidence
More downside is the path of least resistance right now.Why bearish tilt?
Failed to hold 70k–70.5k (previous breakout area)Failed to reclaim MA(7) and MA(25)Repeated lower highs since 71.7kMomentum is rolling over (shorter MAs pointing down)We are hugging the MA(99) from above → usually a warning sign when price can’t get away upward

SUPPORT ZONES – WHERE THE FIGHT HAPPENS NEXT
68,800 – 69,000 → current zone (MA(25) + MA(99) battle) → if this breaks clean → acceleration likely67,800 – 68,200 → next real shelf (previous swing area)67,000 – 67,400 → psychological + previous structure65,500 – 66,000 → stronger zone (possible short-term bottom if panic stops here)64,000 – 64,800 → last meaningful support before new leg lower
RESISTANCE / TAKE-PROFIT LEVELS (if long)
69,600 – 69,800 → first little hurdle71,000 – 71,300 → must reclaim to even think bullish again71,800 – 72,200 → real “we are back” level71,750 → previous high (very far right now)
MY CURRENT BIAS & PROBABLE SCENARIOS
Scenario A – Most likely right now (60–65%)
Bearish continuation → breaks 68,800 → targets 67.8k → 67k → possibly 65.5–66k
→ this is the cleanest path
Scenario B – Possible relief bounce (25–30%)
Holds 68,800–69,000 very strongly + volume spike → quick squeeze back to 70k–70.5k
→ but this needs real buying power (not seeing it yet)
Scenario C – Full reversal (10–15%)
Strong close above 70.3k–70.5k with volume → invalidates bearish case
→ honestly low probability at this moment
FOR THE CREW – PRACTICAL LEVELS
If you are LONG right now (scalps or swings)
→ Stop-loss below 68,650–68,700 (under MA(25) + current structure)
→ First target 69,700–70,000
→ Second target 70,400–70,600 (if it happens)
→ Very tight risk – reward is poor unless you catch a perfect bounce
If you want to SHORT / add bearish exposure
Entry zone: 68,900–69,200 (current area or small bounce)
Stop-loss: 69,750–70,000 (above recent swing high)
Targets:
TP1: 68,200–68,400TP2: 67,600–67,800TP3: 66,800–67,200 (stretch)
BOTTOM LINE FOR THE CREW
Right now it looks like the bears are in control of the wheel.
We are not in a healthy uptrend — we are in a corrective / downtrending phase after the big flush & failed recovery.Protect the gold.
Small size only.
Tight stops.
No hero longs without a clear reclaim of 70k.If it breaks 68,700 with volume → expect more red water ahead.

$BTC
CURRENT PRICE
69,869.28 USDT
24h High: 71,751
24h Low: 64,500
24h Change: +7.48% (still green candle on the day)
Volume: ~65k BTC / ~4.47B USDT (decent but not explosive)

WHAT THE CHART IS SAYING
- Strong bounce from 64,500–65,000 zone yesterday - Price is now fighting right under the MA(7) ~70,132 and MA(25) ~70,447 - MA(99) ~68,768 is acting as dynamic support underneath - We are in a classic chop / consolidation zone after the big flush and recovery - Momentum is cooling — no fresh buying panic, no fresh selling panic either

KEY LEVELS – SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

MAJOR SUPPORT ZONES (defend these)
1. 69,200 – 69,500 → immediate floor (current price action base)
2. 68,500 – 68,800 → MA(99) + psychological level
3. 67,000 – 67,650 → stronger mid-term shelf
4. 64,500 – 65,000 → yesterday’s low + big volume node (last line of defense)

RESISTANCE / TAKE-PROFIT ZONES
1. 70,000 – 70,450 → MA(7) + MA(25) → first real fight
2. 71,000 – 71,750 → previous high + round number
3. 73,000 – 73,500 → next major ceiling if we get real strength
4. 74,000 – 76,000 → stretch target (previous consolidation area)

SCALPING VIABILITY RIGHT NOW
Scalping is possible but tricky — we are in a tight range with low momentum.

Quick scalp setups (15m / 5m charts)

Long scalp idea
Entry: bounce off 69,300 – 69,500 with volume increase
Stop-loss: 69,050 – 69,100 (below current structure)
Targets:
- TP1: 70,000 – 70,200 (+0.7–1%) - TP2: 70,400 – 70,600 (+1.3–1.8%)
Risk:Reward → ~1:2 to 1:3 if you catch the bounce clean

Short scalp idea (higher risk right now)
Entry: rejection at 70,400 – 70,600 + bearish candle + volume spike
Stop-loss: 70,850 – 71,000
Targets:
- TP1: 69,800 – 69,900 - TP2: 69,400 – 69,500
Risk:Reward → ~1:1.5–2 (not amazing)

MY CURRENT LEAN
- Bias = Neutral → Slightly Bullish as long as we stay above 69,200 - Most probable next 12–24 hours = sideways grind 68.8k – 71k - Real move usually comes after we break one side cleanly (above 70.5k or below 68.8k)

RECOMMENDED RISK MANAGEMENT

LONG position example
Entry: ~69,600–69,800
Stop-loss: 68,900 (below MA99) → ~1.0–1.2% risk
Take-profit layers:
- 50% at 70,800 - 30% at 71,750
- 20% trailing toward 73k if momentum kicks in

If you prefer to wait
Wait for either:
- clean break & close above 70,450 (bullish signal) - clean break & close below 68,800 (bearish signal)

Bottom line
Not screaming bullish yet — but also not screaming bearish.
We are in no-man’s-land. Protect capital. Small size. Tight stops.
Scalps are fine if you’re fast and disciplined — but don’t force it.

What’s your plan — scalping this range, waiting for breakout, or sitting on hands? 🏴‍☠️

$BTC Chart Overview: The Savage DropYer
15-minute Binance chart shows Bitcoin divin' like a scuttled ship: Current price at $64,849.54, down -8.9% in the last 24 hours from a high o' $71,978.58 to a low o' $60,000. Volume's healthy at 125,338 BTC (~$8.25B USDT), with transactions hummin' along. The candlesticks paint a picture o' panic sellin'—a massive red candle droppin' from ~$67k to $60k, followed by green bounces but strugglin' under the declinin' MAs (MA7 at $65,483, MA25 at $65,057, MA99 at $66,942). Longer-term? Up 2.53% today but down -23.26% over 7 days, -30.43% in 30 days, and worse further out. This be a classic liquidity stress event, screamin' o' macro fears like weak jobs data and delayed rate cuts.

The Shift: From Dramatic Bear to Key Support Consolidation
Blimey, that bearish broadside was brutal! BTC crashed through multiple resistances, breakin' below $70k fer the first time since late 2024, wipin' out billions in a flash. Analysts call it a "market shock" driven by Vitalik's ETH dumps ($6.69M worth) and broader risk-off sentiment. But look closer: After hittin' the $60k abyss (a psychological and historical support, near the 200-week EMA), it's consolidatin' sideways in a tight range o' $60k–$65k. Volume bars spiked on the drop (fear sellin') but tapered off, suggestin' exhaustion. The MA lines are flattish now, with price bouncin' off the lower Bollinger Band—classic signs o' bears losin' steam and buyers testin' the waters. If we hold $60k, this could be the calm before the bull storm; a break below opens Davy Jones' locker to $52k–$58k.
Towards Bull Preparedness: Reversal Signals on the Horizon
Aye, the winds be shiftin'! Despite the gloom, BTC's showin' bull readiness. The Stochastic RSI be oversold (near 0), hintin' at a rebound like past cycles where "bullish crosses" sparked runs. JPMorgan's turnin' bullish, raisin' long-term targets to $266k as BTC overtakes gold on volatility-adjusted basis. History shows post-halving dips like this (down 45% from $126k ATH) often precede peaks—think 92x gains after 2012 halvin'. If tomorrow's NFP jobs data surprises soft (boostin' rate-cut odds), or if Trump admin's crypto promises kick in, we could see a swift rally. Key watch: A close above $66k (MA99) signals bull control, targetin' $70k–$82k. But beware: Stifel warns o' $38k if supports fail. Me take? Preparedness high—stack sats here fer the cycle bottom in 2026.

Scalping Strategies: Quick Raids in the Chop
Fer ye short-term pirates, scalpin' this 15m chart be prime! Focus on range-bound action 'round $60k–$65k. Strategy: Use RSI divergences (oversold buys, overbought sells) with tight 1-2% targets. Long scalp: Buy at $62k support on green candle close, TP at $64k (near MA7), SL at $61k (below low). Short scalp: Sell at $65k resistance on red wick, TP at $63k, SL at $66k. Leverage low (1-5x) to avoid liquidation storms—aim fer 5-10 trades a day on high-volume spikes. Tools: Bollinger Bands fer squeezes, SAR fer trend flips. Risk 0.5% per trade; this consolidation's yer playground till breakout.

TP/SL Levels: The Full Arsenal
Here's a table o' key levels fer all horizons—TP fer profits, SL fer protection. Based on fib retracements from $60k low to $72k high, and current sentiment.
Timeframe | Entry/Buy Zone | Take Profit (TP) Levels | Stop Loss (SL) Levels | Risk/Reward Ratio
· Scalp (15m-1h) $62,500–$63,000 TP1: $64,000 TP2: $65,000 SL: $61,500 (tight) 1:2 · Swing (1d-7d) $60,000–$62,000 (key support) TP1: $66,000 (MA99) TP2: $70,000 TP3: $82,000 (weekly close target) SL: $58,000 (below 200w EMA) 1:3 · Long-Term (1m+) Accumulate under $65,000 TP1: $100,000 (2026 prediction) TP2: $126,000 (ATH retest) TP3: $266,000 (JPMorgan LT) SL: $52,000 (ultra-bear) 1:5+
There ye have it, A Captains—a full broadside analysis from bear plunge to bull horizon. The shift's real, but patience be key; don't chase the dip without SLs.
Just fer ye scallywags me going in Long-term

Ahoy, ye crypto buccaneers and Bitcoin deck-swabbers! 🏴‍☠️

Captain Gol D. Roger here, haulin’ in the latest winds blowin’ across the markets on Binance Square. The seas be rough after the recent dip, however the horizon’s buzzin’ with fresh signals. Here’s mine pirate roundup of today’s four hottest trending hashtags — each one a cannon shot that could decide whether we sail into calm bull waters or brace for another squall.
#WhenWillBTCRebound – The Eternal Question on Every HODLer’s Lips

2M souls are askin’ the same thing: When will Bitcoin finally turn the ship around?
After gettin’ battered below $80K (some even whisperin’ $75K lows), the chart looks like a storm-tossed deck. Many are pointin’ to the weekly close comin’ up, the 200-day EMA sittin’ around $78–79K, and the massive support zone between $74K–$77K. Bulls are loadin’ powder, sayin’ we’re due for a relief bounce any day now — especially if we hold the weekly candle green. Bears counter that macro fear (rates, geopolitics) still has the upper hand. Consensus among the loudest voices: a real rebound likely needs either a strong weekly close above $82K or fresh institutional buying to ignite it. Until then… we wait, $BTC in hand. ⏳🚀

#WarshFedPolicyOutlook – The New Fed Captain’s Course

Almost 200K discussin’ what Kevin Warsh’s potential reign as Fed Chair would mean for risk assets.
Warsh is widely viewed as hawkish on inflation However pro-growth / pro-deregulation on the regulatory side. Traders are split:
- Bull case — He’d push to unwind QT faster and keep rates from stranglin’ the economy → good for equities and crypto. - Bear case — Stronger inflation-fighting stance could delay rate cuts or even force a hike if CPI surprises hot again.
Right now the market’s pricin’ in a very gradual path of cuts. If Warsh’s Senate hearing goes smoothly and he signals dovish flexibility, risk-on could return quickly. If he doubles down on hawkish rhetoric… expect more chop. The Fed policy outlook just got a new pirate captain — and we’re all watchin’ which way he points the helm.

#ADPDataDisappoints – Private Payrolls Miss the Mark

Approximately 900K voices roarin’ after the ADP private payrolls report came in well below expectations (actual numbers significantly weaker than consensus).
This is the appetizer before tomorrow’s official non-farm payrolls (NFP). A soft ADP print usually means:
- Lower odds of a hawkish surprise from the Fed - Higher probability of rate-cut expectations risin’ again - Short-term relief for risk assets (including BTC)
Markets are now leanin’ toward “the labor market is coolin’ faster than thought” → which is generally bullish for crypto in the medium term (easier money ahead). However in the very short term, weak data can spook traders who fear recession. Tomorrow’s NFP will be the real broadside. Brace yerselves.

#JPMorganSaysBTCOverGold – The Big Bank Throws Weight Behind Bitcoin

280K discussin’ fresh commentary from JPMorgan analysts declarin’ Bitcoin has now overtaken gold as the preferred inflation hedge / store-of-value asset for many institutional portfolios.
Key points circulatin’:
- BTC’s volatility-adjusted Sharpe ratio has improved dramatically - Younger capital allocators prefer digital gold over physical bars - Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has dropped while its correlation with risk assets has risen (more “tech stock” behavior) - JPM still cautions on near-term downside risks, but the long-term narrative shift is unmistakable
This is classic “Wall Street finally admits what we’ve been sayin’ for years” fuel. When legacy finance starts movin’ the goalposts in BTC’s favor, it tends to bring fresh money onboard — especially after a shakeout dip.

Bottom of the anchorage, Me Hearties
The market be at a crossroads:
- Weak jobs data + JPMorgan’s BTC-over-gold call = bullish macro setup - Uncertainty around Fed leadership + lingering macro fear = short-term chop & fakeouts still possible
Most seasoned swabs are sayin’ the same thing: the real rebound candle is likely 1–3 weeks away, not hours. Stack sats on weakness, keep powder dry for the dip-buy, and watch tomorrow’s $NFP like it’s the final battle.

What say ye, crew?
When do you think BTC turns the tide? Drop yer mark below. 🗺️⚓️ #BİNANCESQUARE

Fair winds and fat stacks to all who HODL strong! 🚀🏴‍☠️

Arrr, listen up ye bilge rads! Bitcoin be gettin’ proper fackin’ hammered across every major port o’ trade!

As the sun barely crawled o’er the horizon this morn — early February 5th, 2026 (around 5–6 bells in the SAST watch) — the cursed coin be tradin’ sickly in the $71,000–$72,000 bilge-water, down a vicious 6–7% in the last turn o’ the glass (24 hours). She’s a long way fallen from the glorious treasure peak o’ $126,000 she kissed late in the year o’ our lord 2025.

Current Prize Haul (gathered from the biggest black-market ledgers)
- CoinMarketCap, Binance & the like: ~$71,200–$71,350 (down ~7% — a right nasty cut)- Coinbase, Kraken & the rest o’ the dogs: same sorry waters, wallowin’ ~$71,000–$72,000 - Last 24 hours’ range: dipped as low as ~$71,100–$71,200, once kissed ~$76,700–$76,900 afore the slaughter began - Total booty value: still swaggerin’ around $1.42–$1.45 trillion pieces o’ eight - 24-hour tradin’ frenzy: a monstrous $70–$80 billion+ — screams o’ panic & long positions walkin’ the plank by the shipload!

The sickness be the same from Binance to Coinbase, Kraken to Bitfinex — no broken masts or cursed ledgers on the exchanges themselves. But mark me: the Coinbase premium be negative — meanin’ the blasted coin be cheaper on Yankee shores than on the high seas. Weak demand from the landlubbers, that is.

What in Davy Jones’ name be causin’ this massacre?
The whole cursed crypto armada’s been bleedin’ since late January into this black February o’ 2026. The main broadsides what done the damage:
- A fierce risk-off storm ragin’ across all markets — AI ships takin’ hits, tech stocks listin’, even the shiny metals gettin’ thrown overboard - Massive long-position slaughter — billions already sent to the deep, another few billion walkin’ the plank today alone - Feeble spot buyin’, especially on Coinbase (that negative premium be screamin’ no one wants her)- The whole crypto treasure map be redder than a freshly cut throat - No fair winds nor friendly ports — ETF gold inflows stalled, some Treasury lubber’s mutterin’ makin’ things worse - She’s scrapin’ levels not seen since late 2024 / early 2025 — many old sea-dogs now starin’ at $70,000 as the last barrel o’ grog before the abyss

If ye be watchin’ the charts, it’s a right brutal scuttlin’: smashed through $75k, then $73k, now grindin’ & groanin’ round $71k–$72k with wind still howlin’.

No broken sextants or mutinous exchange crews — this be pure blood-in-the-water price carnage + a chain o’ liquidation broadsides.

Want the latest tick-by-tick cannon shot or the order book depth from a particular ship? Speak quick and I’ll dive fer it.
Guard yer pieces o’ eight, mates — crypto winters be colder than the bottom o’ the sea🏴‍☠️

Ahoy, ye scurvy dogs and crypto corsairs! This be Captain Gol D. Roger, King o' the Pirates, droppin' anchor on Binance Square with a treasure map o' today's hottest trends. We've weathered a mighty dip in the Bitcoin seas, but the winds be shiftin'. Let's swab the deck on these four blazin' hashtags, each a cannonball in the global fray that could rock yer portfolios. I'll chart 'em one by one, keepin' the facts sharp as me cutlass, while spinnin' a yarn in true pirate fashion. Arrr, hoist the sails and let's dive in!

#ADPWatch Jobs Horizon fer Market Booty
Mateys, #ADPWatch be all hands on deck fer the Automatic Data Processin' (ADP) private payroll report, a key spyglass into U.S. jobs data droppin' early February 2026. This beast o' a report tallies non-farm private employment changes, oft foretellin' the official BLS jobs numbers. With the economy sailin' through choppy waters— inflation still lurkin' like a kraken, and Fed rates hangin' like storm clouds—traders be watchin' fer surprises. A strong haul o' jobs (say, over 150K added) could signal bull winds, boostin' stocks and crypto as risk appetite swells. But a weak showin'? Aye, that'd be a bearish gale, pushin' safe havens like gold or stablecoins. Options on ADP stock itself kicked off fer February expiry, with puts at $255 bid at $4.10, offerin' a 1.61% yield boost if ye sell-to-open. Keep yer eye on this, lads— it could steer Bitcoin toward $85K if the data shines bright!

#TrumpEndsShutdown : The Don Hoists the Flag o' Fiscal Peace
Shiver me timbers! On February 3, 2026, President Donald Trump signed a massive $1.2 trillion spendin' bill into law, endin' the longest government shutdown in U.S. history at 43 days. This accord, struck hours after the House voted, reopens federal agencies and funds 'em through September. No more crew mutiny o'er border walls or debt ceilings—fer now. Trump called it a "great victory fer America," but critics growl it's a temporary truce in the debt wars. Fer crypto buccaneers, this be golden: Shutdowns sink markets like a scuttled ship, but resolution pumps liquidity and confidence. Expect a relief rally in equities and alts, with Bitcoin potentially ridin' the wave back to highs. But beware the horizon—next budget battle could bring more tempests. Arrr, fair winds fer HODLers today!

#USIranStandoff : Swords Rattlin' in the not so Middle Eastern Maelstrom
Blimey, the #USIranStandoff be heatin' up like a powder keg in the sun! Amid massive protests in Iran over regime crackdowns, President Trump issued dire warnings to Tehran, promisin' intervention to shield demonstrators and slappin' fresh sanctions. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei fired back, vowin' all-out war if the U.S. strikes, with threats to U.S. bases in the region. A bombshell Wall Street Journal report reveals the Pentagon ain't fully prepped fer a big hit— air and missile defenses need beefin' up to guard Israel and allies. Troop moves and evacuations be underway, edgin' us toward conflict. Fer market swabs, this geopolitical thunder be bearish: Oil prices spike (Iran controls key straits), safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin surge as flight-to-safety plays, but stocks and riskier cryptos could plunge if shots be fired. Watch fer de-escalation talks (cancelled Friday, alas)— a truce could calm the seas, but escalation? That'd be a black spot on global growth.

#KevinWarshNominationBullOrBear : Fed Chair Pick – Bullish Bounty or Bearish Bilge?
Yo ho ho, the #KevinWarshNominationBullOrBear debate be ragin' like a tavern brawl! On January 30, 2026, Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, term endin' in May. Warsh, a 2008 crisis vet with Stanford and Harvard creds, be seen as hawkish—favorin' tighter policy to tame inflation, which could mean higher rates longer. Bulls cheer: His pro-growth stance might juice markets with deregulation vibes, pushin' stocks and crypto higher if he eases quantitative tightenin'. Bears beware: Democrats on the Senate Bankin' Committee demand delays 'til probes into Powell and Governor Lisa Cook (over ethics and fraud claims) wrap up, potentially deadlockin' confirmation. If Warsh sails through, expect volatility— a dovish pivot could rocket Bitcoin, but hawkish hikes? That'd cap the bull run. Traders be dividin' the spoils: Bull fer long-term stability, bear fer short-term pains.
Here yet Go Me Mateys

There ye have it, me hearties—a combined chronicle o' these trends, each a piece o' the grand puzzle impactin' our crypto voyage. With the shutdown ended and Fed drama brewin', amid standoff jitters and jobs watch, the bull market be loadin' cannons fer a comeback.

But stay vigilant; these waves could turn treacherous. What say ye—bull or bear? Drop yer thoughts below, and let's chase that One Piece o' profits together! 🏴‍☠️🚀 #CryptoTalks