Straight call – no bearshit, no bullshit
Current reality at 69,377:
This is not a bottom
This is not accumulation
This is not a healthy pullback
This is a very deep, very ugly downtrend that is still in progress.Key facts right now:
Price is ~35–40% below the late-2025 high (depending on exact peak)
We just made new lower lows on the daily and weekly timeframes
We are far below every meaningful long-term moving average (MA99 ~90k, MA200 even higher)
The structure is lower highs + lower lows since December 2025
Volume on the current bounce is mediocre — not conviction buying
The big green volume spike you see at the bottom was forced short covering + late dip-buying, not new strong hands stepping in
Where we actually areWe are in the middle–late stages of a proper bear phase after a parabolic top.
Not the beginning. Not the end. Somewhere in the painful middle.Most realistic near-term outlook (next 1–6 weeks):
Choppy, heavy downside bias
→ rallies get sold aggressively
→ every 3–7% bounce looks like “the reversal” until it doesn’tNext real support zones are much lower
65,000–66,500 (weak, lots of people waiting there)
60,000–62,000 (psychological + previous major shelf)
55,000–58,000 (very possible if panic accelerates)
Below 55k opens the door to 48–52k region
What would actually change the picture (very short list)
Daily close above 72,000–73,000 with strong volume and shrinking downside candles
Multiple days of higher lows + higher highs
Clear shift in funding rates, Coinbase premium, ETF flows
Until that happens → we are still in the path of least resistance = down.Bottom line – no hopium versionThis still looks like the meat of a real correction / bear market leg.
Not capitulation yet.
Not reversal yet.
Just pain.Survive first.
Small size or no size.
No revenge longs.
No “this is the bottom because I Am tired” trades.
That’s what the chart is actually saying today.
No fluff. No agenda.
