btcreview

The latest correction $BTC strengthened the belief in the four-year halving cycle, which traditionally defines market movement. This conclusion was reached by analysts at Kaiko Research in a fresh report.
Earlier, many market participants assured their colleagues that the cyclicality of Bitcoin's movement was disrupted. However, BTC's behavior indicates the opposite.

$BTC has stabilized at the level of $70,000 after a period of increased volatility; however, pressure from sellers limits the potential for immediate growth. Large investors are actively increasing their positions, creating a foundation of support after the recent decline in quotes.
Data on exchange-traded funds and metrics within the network indicate the formation of a sideways trend with no clear signs of a sharp movement in the near future.

"Obligations to investors"
By Monday, February 9, $BTC it has somewhat recovered after last week's drop to $60 thousand. The collapse to $60 thousand was unusual in that it lasted several days and was "prolonged", without a large number of liquidations. The decline was methodical, systemic, and occurred in the absence of sharply negative news, noted the analyst.

The rate $BTC recently experienced a sharp decline. The price nearly reached the critical mark of $60,000, after which a quick rebound followed. Asset buybacks during the local dip helped stabilize the situation near current values.
However, this recovery does not confirm a definitive trend change. The current movement seems more like a temporary pause within a broader correction phase. Investors continue to assess the likelihood of further declines in the asset's value.

The drop $BTC below $70,000 is perceived very differently by old holders and new investors. The former feel uncertain, while the latter see it as a 'chance,' said Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley in an interview with CNBC.
According to the top manager, in the current situation, institutional players 'see prices that they thought they had missed forever.'

Preconditions for a large-scale market decline
Although much has changed since the last crisis, the stagnation period of 2022 served as a backdrop for events that many considered fatal for the industry. Active growth began in 2020, when a significant influx of capital led to price increases to peak levels in November 2021. Over ten months, the value $BTC grew from $8300 to $64000.

Global financial markets transitioned to growth on February 6. The previous day's deep sell-offs led to overselling of stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. $BTC recovered to the level of $70,000. American stock indices, gold, and silver also showed positive dynamics. The main factors were technical buying and a temporary easing of macroeconomic concerns among investors.

The price $BTC is holding below $70,000, and the market has already accepted this level as a new reality. From local highs, the decline was more than 12 percent, and short-term volatility has increased, indicating a phase of redistribution and exit from excessive risk.
The chart clearly shows an impulsive downward movement with accelerating sales. The minimum was recorded around $59,800, after which there was a quick rebound of almost $5,000. However, the recovery stopped in the zone of $66,000–67,000, where supply intensified.

This Friday will be remembered by the market as a point of sharp risk offloading. Massive liquidations occurred throughout the ecosystem, and the figures of capital outflow became a clear marker of changing sentiments. Investors acted synchronously, reducing positions and realizing losses.
The outflow of funds was particularly noticeable in $BTC : minus $434 million in one day. $ETH showed a more moderate, but still significant decline of $81 million. Against this background, $SOL stood out with a symbolic inflow of $3 million, more as an exception than a new trend.

The current decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency is caused by the actions of major market participants, not by panicked private investors, according to technical analyst Peter Brandt.
In his opinion, the price movement bears all the hallmarks of a "planned selloff." Brandt noted that the leading cryptocurrency has been making new local highs and lows for eight days in a row. The expert contrasted this situation with a typical liquidation of retail traders' positions.

Three models
On the six-month horizon, when searching for the bottom in the cryptocurrency market, one can rely on three models. These are historical data from previous cycles and comparisons with gold.
The first model is based on the pattern from 2019, which is closest to the current macroeconomic situation. Back then, the market grew from about $3,000 to $13,000, after which it entered a prolonged correction to $6,500. All this occurred against the backdrop of a rising stock market and the pause in the reduction of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) — just like now. If we extrapolate that pattern onto the current cycle, the market is already close to its minimum values — in the range of $67,000–73,000.

Bitwise's Director of Investments Matt Hougan stated that the current bear cycle in the digital asset market began back in January 2025. The influx of institutional capital amounting to $75 billion temporarily masked the depth of the decline of most tokens from retail investors.
Experts disagree on the date of the end of the crisis, predicting a recovery from early to autumn 2026.

February 5 quotes $BTC fell to $70,119 — the lowest since October 2024. $ETH followed the flagship, dropping to $2,079.
Kronos Research's Director of Investments Vincent Liu linked the decline to a break of important support after a failed bounce. According to him, pressure on the market was intensified by three factors: a wave of liquidations of long positions, sell-offs in the US tech sector, and capital outflows from spot ETFs.

At Compass Point, they believe that the crypto market continues to remain under pressure, and Bitcoin may face a new wave of price decline. According to the forecast of banking analysts, the nearest support level is in the range of $60,000–$68,000, where long-term investors made large purchases most frequently in the previous cycle.

If we do not count the year 2017, no drop in the rate $BTC by 40% from the historical maximum has occurred without a subsequent decline of more than 50% within the next three months. According to analysts at billionaire Mike Novogratz's investment company Galaxy, there is a high probability that the price of Bitcoin could drop even below these statistical values – down to $56,000 per coin.

The first cryptocurrency has fallen below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025. The drop was triggered by forced liquidations totaling $2.55 billion, noted Wintermute analysts.
Experts called this event the tenth largest liquidation volume in the industry's history. Major sell-offs occurred over the low liquidity weekend. The market reacted to the news with a delay, 'digesting the accumulated negativity over the week.'

The price of Bitcoin during trading fell below the psychological support level of $80,000. The asset updated a nine-month low, losing support at the True Market Mean level ($80,500).
The technical breakout caused a large-scale reduction in the share of borrowed funds in the market. Over the past day, the volume of liquidations of traders' positions amounted to $2.58 billion. This is evidenced by data from analytical platforms.

On the evening of January 31, $BTC it fell below $80,000. Over the course of a day, the coin lost about 7%.

Bitcoin recorded a local bottom just above $75,000 — such values have not been observed since April 2025. At the time of writing, the asset has recovered and is trading near $78,000.
The fall coincided with the end of January: thus, the monthly chart of digital gold closed with a red candle for the third time in a row.

The crypto market is sending mixed signals again — altcoins are printing double-digit gains, while the giants — Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana — are barely moving.


At first glance, it looks like the leaders have lost momentum. But dig deeper, and the story is more about liquidity dynamics than weakness.



⚖️ 1️⃣ The Weight of Giants


Large-cap coins are heavy by nature.

To move $BTC, $ETH, or $SOL by 10–15%, the market needs billions in fresh inflows.


When liquidity returns after a correction, capital prefers “lighter” stories — mid-cap and small-cap tokens where the same money can create a more explosive chart.


It’s not that the big three are broken — they’re just too large to dance to the same beat as alts. Traders chase visible momentum, and right now, the smaller caps are where that momentum lives.



💰 2️⃣ Profit-Taking and Risk Rebalancing


Institutional and large retail players often use blue chips as hedges and collateral. After a market drawdown, these positions are the first to be adjusted.


When $BTC or $ETH attempt to rally, profit-taking kicks in fast — not out of fear, but out of discipline.

Meanwhile, many altcoins have already lost 60–70% of their value, leaving less overhead supply.


That gives them more room to bounce sharply — even on small inflows — while top coins face waves of controlled selling from cautious investors.



🔄 3️⃣ Narrative Rotation


Markets run on stories, not just liquidity.

After months of dominance by the majors, attention inevitably shifts to fresh narratives — AI, memes, modular chains, and new Layer-1 networks.


These smaller ecosystems promise higher short-term excitement, while BTC and ETH become the silent backbone — used for settlement, collateral, and stability, but not for spectacle.


This is not decay — it’s rotation.



📉 4️⃣ Does the Market Lack Liquidity?


Partially, yes.

Fresh capital inflows are limited — especially after recent liquidations and macro uncertainty. The market must choose where to deploy what little liquidity exists.


Right now, traders prefer focused bets over broad rallies. This makes altcoin moves look spectacular while the big caps grind sideways.


But there’s a silver lining: liquidity concentration reveals what’s actually attracting belief. The projects sustaining volume through this phase are likely to survive the next contraction.



🧭 Final Outlook


Weak growth in $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL is not a verdict — it’s a snapshot of where we are in the market cycle.


The majors are acting as liquidity donors, absorbing risk and providing structure, while altcoins take center stage in short-lived bursts of volatility.


Once real liquidity returns — through new money, ETF inflows, or macro easing — the rotation will reverse, and the flagships will reclaim momentum.


Until then, this is a market of sharp bursts and silent foundations.



#BTCReview #ETHOutlook #SOLAnalysis #AltcoinRotation #CryptoMarketWatch


Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. Not financial advice. For educational and informational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.