The rate $BTC recently experienced a sharp decline. The price nearly reached the critical mark of $60,000, after which a quick rebound followed. Asset buybacks during the local dip helped stabilize the situation near current values.
However, this recovery does not confirm a definitive trend change. The current movement seems more like a temporary pause within a broader correction phase. Investors continue to assess the likelihood of further declines in the asset's value.
Signals from unrealized loss indicators
A characteristic feature of bearish markets is a high level of relative unrealized losses (Relative Unrealized Loss). This metric assesses the dollar value of coins that are 'underwater' relative to the total market capitalization. During the recent decline to $60,000, this ratio jumped to about 24%. This level is significantly above the transition zone between bullish and bearish cycles. The market has firmly settled in negative territory.
The current value signals intense selling pressure. However, it remains below extreme capitulation levels. Historically, a bottom forms at values above 50%. Therefore, Bitcoin is undergoing an active process of reevaluation rather than reaching a final bottom. Selling pressure is widespread but not yet exhausted. Volatility is likely to persist until a new market equilibrium is found.
Divergence in the behavior of retail and large investors
The distribution of Bitcoin supply among wallets of different sizes provides important insights into the sentiments of participants. Data shows that addresses with a balance of less than 0.01 BTC are steadily increasing their ownership share. This group represents small retail participants. They often respond emotionally to price fluctuations, but are currently actively accumulating assets.
Wallets with a balance of 10 to 10,000 BTC, on the contrary, show a moderate asset distribution during the decline. This divergence is noteworthy against the backdrop of extremely negative sentiments on social media. Despite pessimistic comments, small traders are increasing their exposure. Apparently, they believe that current prices are favorable for entering the market.
Such an imbalance indicates that optimism in the market has not yet been fully reset. Deep bearish phases are typically accompanied by the capitulation of retail investors, coinciding with negative social metrics. Until the supply in the hands of small holders begins to decline, rebounds may be unstable. This limits the potential for short-term recovery attempts.
Growth in network activity and new addresses
Network activity sends a contrasting signal against the backdrop of weak prices. The number of new addresses on the Bitcoin network surged sharply over the past week. The number of investors making their first transaction on the blockchain increased by about 37%. The influx of new market participants is evident.
The influx of new users can provide support during the consolidation phase. However, if macroeconomic pressure persists, even strong network growth may not offset the overall risk aversion in financial markets.
Technical analysis and key levels
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $69,077. Previously, the asset bounced off the support level of $63,007 during the recent crash. Aggressive buying prevented a deeper fall to the psychological mark of $60,000. Successfully defending this threshold highlights the demand at lower levels, at least in the short term.
The risk of a decline remains high despite a local rebound. The overall macroeconomic backdrop suggests the likelihood of further downward breaks in the coming weeks. A loss of support at $63,007 will strengthen the bearish scenario. The next major reduction target is around $55,500. This is based on historical support zones.
Short-term recovery remains possible with continued capital inflow. The activity of new addresses can help Bitcoin consolidate and test the level of $71,672. A firm hold above this mark will cancel the immediate bearish setup. This will signal market stabilization, although it will not completely break the current correction structure.
