CryptoQuant Quicktake

The short answer is No.

After looking at the data, it seems that the correction is far from finished. 😭

Currently, the market’s only aggressive buyer left is the "Bitcoin Godfather" himself.

Strategy went on a buying spree in January, scooping up 40,150 BTC. To put that in perspective, they accounted for 97.5% of all active DAT buying volume!

When you compare that to the massive red bars on the Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), it’s clear that aside from Michael Saylor, other buyers are effectively missing in action. This is a very "unhealthy" hand-off of coins and often serves as a warning sign that prices could drop further.

Triple-Data Cross-Validation:

To get the full picture, let’s look at these three key metrics:

Futures Open Interest (OI): This has dropped to $21.3B, a yearly low. Leveraged speculators have fled the scene, leaving the market with zero momentum.

Miner Activity: Large-scale miners began reducing their positions after February 9th, increasing the circulating supply. We need to keep a close eye on how this develops.

MVRV Ratio: We are currently at 1.2. Historically, a "macro bottom" usually hits between 0.7 and 0.8. If you do the math, that implies a potential 30–40% downside 🥵. (The silver lining? As the market matures, the bottom often ends up higher than previous cycles, so we might not hit those historic lows this time.)

The Verdict:

Based on the current data, the true Bitcoin bottom is not yet in. If history repeats itself, I believe the $48k – $58k range is the "fair value" bottom for this bearish phase.

So don’t rush to "buy the dip" just yet. Wait for clearer signals (ex. positive BTC spot CVD). For now, keep your powder dry. 💰💰💰 You might want to look at other bull markets (like Gold) for the time being, but whatever you do, don't use up all your silver bullets in the crypto market too early.

Written by Sunny Mom

The era of Big Techs as defensive assets and "infinite cash registers" is showing that it is coming to an end, giving way to a cycle of massive indebtedness and aggressive AI Capex. This movement forces the market to reevaluate the valuation of giants like Alphabet, which are now seeking century-long debt to sustain their competitiveness. Bitcoin, captured by this macro dynamic, mirrors this transition: shifting from a decorrelated asset to becoming the thermometer of institutional risk appetite. Where we once saw solidity, today we see a technological "arms race" that pressures margins and tests the resilience of balance sheets.

RELEVANT NUMBERS

◾US$ 646 billion → Projected AI investment for 2026 (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google).

◾100 years → Term of Alphabet's debt in pounds; signals risk and suspicion of a bubble in the sector.

◾US$ 90,000 → Average entry price (Realized Price) for ETF buyers.

◾US$ 54,954 → "Danger" target for BTC in the short term.

◾US$ 100,000 → Revised targets by Standard Chartered for the end of 2026.

◾100,000 BTC → Net ETF outflow since the October 2025 peak.

INTERPRETING BTC: ISI – Institutional Survival Index

The ISI at -0.30% indicates that BTC via ETFs is operating at Critical Support. Interpret it in three zones:

◾ISI > 0% → Profit Zone. Safe Haven validated and generating value.

◾ISI 0% to -5% → Stress Zone. Support under test due to macro and Big Tech risk.

◾ISI < -5% → Danger Zone. Capitulation and forced institutional liquidation.

CONCLUSION

The Institutional Survival Index (ISI) monitors this pain threshold. If the ETF margin remains negative, the Danger Zone will be inevitable. We are living in a regime where Bitcoin seeks a new floor before the recovery promised for 2026 and, from what we see, driven by signals from the technology sector.

Technical Note → The ISI confronts the spot price (real-time) with the institutional cost (Delay T+2, due to the settlement and reporting time of the ETFs).

Written by GugaOnChain

The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing significant volatility, with overall momentum waning as traders shift toward caution and reassess risk. Bitcoin, the primary liquidity barometer for the digital asset ecosystem, is moving within volatile ranges, reflecting a consolidation phase after periods of sharp fluctuations. This has prompted some liquidity to seek alternative opportunities in specific sectors, most notably lending and borrowing.

Over the past few days, data has shown a notable increase in spot trading volumes for major lending-protocol tokens, potentially indicating a gradual return of interest in this sector. These tokens give holders governance rights and platform benefits such as better borrowing rates, higher yields, or fee discounts, tying their demand to activity within the ecosystem. Such rotation toward utility-driven assets often emerges during periods of market stagnation. When directional conviction weakens, investors often shift from outright exposure toward balance-sheet management strategies, seeking liquidity, capital efficiency, or yield without fully exiting core positions.

NEXO, the native token of digital assets wealth platform Nexo, recorded approximately $10.9 million in daily trading volume in recent days, the highest level observed in the token’s history, according to available data. This surge may be linked to increased use of the token as collateral or as a liquidity-management tool within the project’s lending ecosystem.

Meanwhile, AAVE saw a significant jump in daily trading volume, reaching approximately $327.8 million in recent days—a notably high level compared with the much lower averages of previous months.

Overall, Bitcoin’s volatility coinciding with rising trading volumes in lending tokens suggests a partial shift in liquidity from major assets toward sub-sectors with a more operational or yield-oriented focus.

Written by Arab Chain

Looking at Bitcoin price and stablecoin exchange reserves since Apr 7, 2025, the message is fairly clear: liquidity is still around, but it’s not willing to chase BTC on the spot market.

After early April, BTC pushed higher briefly, then rolled into distribution and a clean structural break. Since then, price has trended lower, with rebounds repeatedly failing to attract meaningful spot follow-through.

Meanwhile, USDC (ERC-20) balances have been building on exchanges. That matters. Capital is being positioned on trading venues, but it’s not getting converted into sustained spot BTC buying. Instead, USDC sits idle - parked liquidity, signaling caution and postponed risk-taking rather than accumulation.

USDT (ERC-20) tells the opposite story, with exchange reserves steadily declining from April onward. Liquidity is moving off Ethereum rails, consistent with softer on-chain activity and reduced use of ERC-20 settlement.

At the same time, USDT (TRC-20) exchange balances stabilized and started rising into early 2026. Tron is once again absorbing USDT flows, reinforcing its role as the preferred rail for derivatives, fast settlement, and defensive positioning.

Put together, this is not capital leaving crypto. It’s capital staying liquid, flexible, and defensive - positioned for optionality, not conviction.

Since Apr 7, 2025, liquidity has been available, but unwilling to absorb BTC supply on the spot market. Until stablecoin balances start turning into sustained spot buying, upside is likely to remain fragile and flow-driven rather than structurally supported 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

• During the latest market drop, the UPR of Bitcoin’s New Whales reached -0.30.

• The last time that the indicator reached this level after an ATH was in June 2022.

• The difference lies in the speed, not the intensity. In 2022, from the moment the UPR turned negative, it took less than one and a half months to reach -0.30 (due to the collapse of Luna, 3AC, etc.), whereas now it has taken more than three months to reach this level. This time, it was more gradual, not a sharp crash.

• Indicator: UPR for New Whales (by Ki Young Ju, CEO of CQ).

Written by _OnChain

Recent data from Binance indicates that the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of Bitcoin Funding Rates has dropped to a critical level of −0.002. This marks the lowest value this metric has recorded since September 2024 (surpassing even the lows observed in May 2025). Concurrently, Bitcoin’s price has been in a grinding downtrend, currently trading around the $66.4K range.

Data Interpretation:

Bearish Dominance: A deeply negative funding rate, especially when sustained over a 14-day average, signals that short traders are aggressively betting on further price declines. These traders are willing to pay a premium to long position holders just to keep their bearish positions open.

Capitulation Signs: Such extreme negative values typically manifest at the tail end of severe downtrends, often coinciding with peak market fear and capitulation.

Market Outlook:

From an on-chain and market psychology perspective, deeply negative funding rates often serve as a strong Contrarian Signal. The market currently appears to be heavily “overcrowded” on the short side.

This setup provides the necessary fuel for a potent Short Squeeze. Even a minor price rebound or a piece of positive news could trigger a cascade of liquidations among these accumulated short positions, propelling the price upward rapidly. While the prevailing price trend remains bearish, the risk-to-reward ratio for opening new short positions is unfavorable at these funding levels.

Conclusion:

Historical patterns suggest that when the Funding Rate SMA-14 dips into negative territory (similar to the instances in May 2025 and November 2024), it often precedes the formation of a local price bottom. Traders should exercise caution, as the market holds high potential for a corrective bullish move.

Written by CryptoOnchain

📰 Daily Market Update:

On-chain flows and liquidity metrics often reveal what large players are doing before the market reacts.

📊 [BTC] - Binance Whale to Exchange Flow

The chart tracks the cumulative 30-day inflow of Bitcoin into Binance.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 Recently, the chart shows a sharp rise in whale inflows exceeding $7.5 billion.

📈 This marks the second time whale inflows have surpassed this threshold.

📉 The last time was in late November, This was followed by a drop in Bitcoin’s price from approximately $92k to current levels below $70k.

📊 Tether USD(ERC20): Total Supply

This chart tracks the total supply of USDT on Ethereum (ERC20).

🔬 Key Observation

📉 Since January 18, total USDT supply on Ethereum has declined from over $103 billion to around $96 billion by February 12, representing a $7 billion contraction in less than one month.

📉 The last time we saw a comparable setup was in mid-May 2022, when USDT supply on Ethereum fell by roughly $3 billion, from $39B to $36B.

📉 What followed was a sharp Bitcoin decline from above $30k to below $20k, a loss exceeding 40%.

📅 Note: I previously highlighted the one-time burn of $3.5 billion in USDT on the Ethereum network in our last update.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ The continued inflow of Bitcoin from whale wallets into spot exchanges, alongside a declining stablecoin supply, historically contributed to lower crypto asset prices due to reduced liquidity.

⏲️ This does not guarantee an immediate crash, but it raises caution flags for aggressive long positioning and suggests that upside may remain limited unless liquidity conditions improve.

Written by Amr Taha

The $BTC IFP (Inter-exchange Flow Pulse) indicator measures the level of activity between $BTC exchanges, reflecting movement between spot and derivatives exchanges.

In general, a bull market begins with an inflow of $BTC into the futures market. This occurs when the IFP line forms a golden cross with the 90MA. The gap is currently narrowing, and the golden cross is approaching.

Whales are focusing on the futures market rather than the spot market and are actively building their positions. They are quietly preparing for a bull market.

Written by CW8900

Data on net open interest (OI Change 30D) across major trading platforms indicates that the derivatives market is undergoing a clear phase of deleveraging and risk readjustment. The data shows that the downward trend is concentrated on several key platforms, most notably Binance, Gate.io, OKX, and Bybit, reflecting a widespread outflow of capital from futures positions.

Based on the displayed figures, Binance recorded a decline of approximately 40 million ETH over the last 30 days, while Gate.io’s open interest fell by more than 20 million ETH, OKX declined by about 6.8 million ETH, and Bybit by an additional 8.5 million ETH. This brings the total decline across these four platforms alone to approximately 75 million ETH.

When other platforms showing negative readings, albeit with smaller volumes, are included, the total contraction in open interest across all platforms exceeds 80 million ETH over the past 30 days, confirming that the phenomenon is widespread and not limited to a single platform.

This pattern suggests that traders, particularly those using high leverage, are reducing their exposure rather than opening new positions, whether out of caution or due to pressure from volatile price movements. Such periods typically coincide with market transitions, where short-term speculation gives way to a more conservative approach.

From a structural perspective, this significant drop in open interest can be viewed as a “clean-up” of weaker positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp forced liquidations later on. This environment may pave the way for a period of relative stability or the formation of a more solid price base for Ethereum in the near future.

Written by Arab Chain

The world is currently facing a higher level of uncertainty than during 9/11, the Iraq War, and Covid — combined.

This isn’t just a headline. It’s data-driven reality: the Global Uncertainty Index has reached an all-time high.

It has surpassed the 2008 financial crash, the Euro debt crisis, and the pandemic.

So what does this actually mean?

It means markets are struggling to find direction, capital is moving more cautiously, and risk is being priced more aggressively.

It means geopolitical, economic, and political fragilities are all active at the same time. And most importantly, it suggests that what we once considered “normal” volatility may now be the new baseline.

When uncertainty rises, two types of people emerge: those who panic — and those who position.

History shows that periods of extreme uncertainty are also periods of major repositioning.

The real question is:

Will we see this era as a threat — or as a strategic opportunity?

Written by İbrahim COŞAR

Following its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for approximately four months and is now approaching what can be considered an undervalued zone.

Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.

However, unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin did not experience a sharp rise into a clearly overvalued zone during the recent bull cycle. This distinction is important to recognize.

As a result, the current decline may also differ from past market bottoms, and it appears necessary to respond with this possibility in mind.

Based on experience, I believe that for most investment assets with a long-term upward trajectory, effective preparation tends to begin during downturns, increasing the likelihood of favorable outcomes.

Written by Crypto Dan

As Bitcoin’s correction continues, volatility is also starting to rise. In an environment shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, with still incomplete data following the shutdown and heightened geopolitical tensions, it is logical to see additional stress emerging in an already fragile crypto market.

This instability is further amplified by the excess leverage present in derivatives markets. The chain liquidations that can result mechanically intensify price movements and reinforce volatility.

Since the end of summer, Bitcoin’s volatility has increased further. A first major spike was observed during the historic liquidation event on October 10, which affected the entire crypto market. Since then, volatility has remained elevated, particularly in November, late January, and early February.

In this context, some investors endure these periods of stress and may even capitulate, while others seek to take advantage of them by deploying their BTC to generate yield or access liquidity through collateralization solutions.

For example, on Nexo, a platform focused on CeFi services, there is a clear correlation between rising volatility and increasing BTC inflows. In November, around 1,500 BTC were transferred to the platform, nearly three times more than the previous month.

January recorded about 1,100 BTC in inflows, and February has already seen more than 630 BTC, extending this trend.

The cumulative amount of BTC deposited on the platform clearly illustrates investors’ appetite for these types of strategies. Nexo holds more than 43,000 BTC deposited on the platform, representing over $2.7B.

Although near-term sentiment around Bitcoin remains cautious, the longer-term outlook remains constructive. In this environment, such solutions allow investors to optimize exposure while preserving capital amid elevated uncertainty.

Written by Darkfost

As Ethereum bleeds from its October high of $4,800 down to $1,900, the derivatives market is flashing a rare contrarian signal. The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Ethereum funding rates on Binance has plunged deep into negative territory, hitting -0.006.

Key Insights:

3-Year Low Sentiment:

This level of -0.006 marks the lowest value recorded since early December 2022. It indicates that bearish sentiment has reached an extreme peak not seen in the last three years.

Overcrowded Shorts:

Such a deeply negative rate implies that short sellers are aggressively dominating the market, paying a significant premium to keep their positions open at these lower price levels.

Reversal Setup:

Historically, extreme negative funding rates at major price support levels often precede a massive short squeeze. When the crowd is this convinced that prices will fall further, the market tends to move in the opposite direction to liquidate late bears.

Current data suggests we may be witnessing a classic capitulation event, mirroring the bottom formation of late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a sharp recovery.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. Its objective is to clarify legal classifications, delineate oversight between the SEC and CFTC, define registration standards for exchanges and custodians, and set issuance and reserve requirements for stablecoins. In effect, it attempts to provide a constitutional foundation for the crypto industry.

Yet legislative progress has slowed. The central conflict revolves around yield-bearing stablecoins. Banking groups argue that offering interest or rewards transforms stablecoins into deposit substitutes, potentially increasing liquidity risks for regional banks. They advocate strict limits on compensation structures. Exchanges, however, depend on yield programs as key revenue streams and user acquisition tools, making this issue structurally significant.

If enacted, CLARITY could evolve in two directions. A restrictive framework may limit stablecoins primarily to payment functions and subject yield products to securities or bank-level regulation. Alternatively, a conditional model may permit limited yield structures under enhanced capital, disclosure, and segregation requirements.

Despite regulatory uncertainty, on-chain indicators suggest resilience. ERC20 stablecoin supply remains elevated, and active addresses continue at stable levels, indicating preserved liquidity rather than structural capital flight.

CLARITY’s impact is therefore more likely to reshape participant composition and institutional accessibility over time than to trigger immediate price reactions.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Binance’s Exchange Reserve for ETH is declining meaning coins are being withdrawn from the exchange. Under normal conditions a shrinking exchange supply is considered a positive signal for price. However, price is also falling right now. This suggests that a stronger negative factor is dominating the market. Those factors may include:

1-Derivatives pressure outweighs spot dynamics. Exchange Reserve reflects spot supply but short term price action is mostly driven by the futures market. If open interest is high funding has turned negative and the short side is aggressive derivatives selling can push price lower even if spot supply is shrinking. In other words withdrawals in spot may be overshadowed by stronger short pressure in futures.

2-Withdrawn ETH may not be for holding. Exchange outflows do not always mean long term accumulation. ETH can be withdrawn to be used as DeFi collateral for OTC transactions moved to L2 or staking platforms or transferred to other exchanges. Binance reserves may be declining while global sell pressure still persists.

3-Weak demand side. A supply decrease alone is not enough. If there are no strong new buyers stablecoin inflows are weak or overall risk appetite is low price may not react positively.

4-Macro and market correlation. ETH does not move in isolation. If BTC is weak the DXY is strong or broader risk markets are under pressure positive reserve signals can be overridden by macro driven downside.

5-Whales loading into derivatives. At times large players withdraw spot ETH while simultaneously opening short positions in derivatives.

Currently, reserves are trending downward again, moving averages look weak after a bearish crossover and price sits around $2.9K with fading momentum. If derivatives pressure continues declining reserves may not immediately trigger a rebound. Instead, price could first clear liquidity and retest lower support levels potentially pointing toward the $1,700 region.

Written by PelinayPA

Binance has officially completed the conversion of its SAFU fund into 15,000 BTC, finalizing the $1 billion transition within 30 days of its initial announcement.

The final tranche included 4,545 BTC, bringing total holdings to 15,000 BTC. At a Bitcoin price of $67,000, the fund is now valued at approximately $1.005 billion.

If BTC volatility pushes the fund below $800 million, Binance has committed to rebalancing it back to $1 billion. This move positions Bitcoin as the exchange’s primary long-term reserve asset and reinforces institutional confidence in BTC as collateral.

Written by maartunn

Bitcoin just posted $2.3B in realized losses.

This is one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash, 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and mid-2024 correction.

📊 What is Net Realized Profit/Loss?

It measures the dollar value of profit or loss locked in when Bitcoin moves on-chain. Red bars show coins sold or transferred at a loss relative to their purchase price.

The bigger the bar, the more pain.

🔴 Current reading: $2.3B (7-day average)

This puts us in the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded. Only a handful of moments in Bitcoin's history have seen this level of capitulation.

👥 Who is selling?

Short-Term Holders (coins held <155 days) who bought between $80K-$110K are capitulating. Weak hands and overleveraged retail are locking in steep losses.

Long-Term Holders are not the source of this spike. They hold through drawdowns.

📍 Historical Context:

In the past, extreme loss spikes like this triggered rebounds. We're seeing it now: BTC bounced from $60K to $71K after the capitulation.

But this could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out. Relief rallies happen even in prolonged bear markets.

Takeaway: $2.3B in realized losses triggered a bounce from $60K to $71K, consistent with historical capitulation patterns. But the risk remains that this is relief within a longer distribution phase, not a trend reversal. Watch for sustained strength or further deterioration.

Written by IT Tech

The Z-Score data for XRP trading volume on Binance (30-day average) provides a clear picture of liquidity and momentum during the current market phase, offering a valuable framework for understanding the relationship between price movements and actual trading activity.

Currently, XRP is trading near $1.37, with a daily trading volume of approximately 173 million XRP, while the Z-Score is hovering around zero. This reading indicates that the current trading volume is close to its historical average over the past 30 days, without any sharp upward or downward deviations.

In this context, the Z-Score hovering near zero reflects a balance between buying and selling forces, suggesting that the market is experiencing a period of relative calm after earlier bouts of higher volatility. This type of environment is often observed during consolidation or repositioning phases, when traders rebuild their positions without strong directional impulses.

A comparison with past periods on the chart shows that sharp spikes in the Z-Score have often preceded significant price moves in XRP, both upward and downward. Conversely, periods in which the index stabilizes near zero tend to precede subsequent directional movements once the equilibrium phase is complete.

Therefore, the current reading can be interpreted as a sign that the market is in a holding pattern, with a low probability of an immediate explosive move, but a higher likelihood of a new wave forming if a sudden surge in trading volume occurs. A bullish breakout in the Z-Score above +2 could be an early indication of renewed momentum, while a sharp drop below it could reflect increased caution or the start of a corrective wave.

Written by Arab Chain

A promo meant to credit users with 2,000 KRW (~$1.36) accidentally credited 2,000 BTC instead.

The result: ~620,000 BTC briefly appeared inside Bithumb’s internal system. These were not real on-chain coins, just accounting entries.

For context, Bithumb currently holds only 41,798 BTC in reserves.

Around the incident, 3,875 BTC (~$268M) were withdrawn. Some users may have capitalized on the error, while others likely reacted to the shock.

Bithumb says 99.7% was reversed (618,212 BTC), leaving 1,788 BTC unresolved.

On-chain flows suggest the story may be bigger.

Written by maartunn

While Bitcoin’s price bled from $124K to $67K, the Binance Futures‑to‑Spot ratio quietly painted a different picture – especially for altcoins.

By late January, the ratio for ETH, XRP, and Solana had collapsed to multi‑month lows, reflecting fear and spot‑driven selling. But since February began, something shifted. ETH’s ratio climbed from 3.7 to 7.5, breaking decisively above its 7‑day moving average. XRP followed, surging from 2.6 to 4.6. Solana nearly doubled. Even Bitcoin’s ratio recovered, yet altcoins led the charge – their upside momentum in futures activity now outrunning BTC’s.

This isn’t random noise. A rising futures/spot ratio from depressed levels signals returning speculative appetite. Traders aren’t just hedging; they’re positioning. The fact that altcoins are showing stronger relative recovery in this metric suggests capital is rotating back into risk assets before price confirms it.

History echoes: similar bottoms in this ratio preceded the Q1 2024 and Q4 2025 rallies. Today’s setup isn’t euphoria – it’s quiet accumulation in derivatives markets. Short‑term pain is visible, but the futures tape is already discounting a turnaround.

Written by Crazzyblockk