CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin is attempting to break above the key resistance level at $74k, which was formed during the consolidation range following the sharp decline in February. Recent on-chain data shows that OG investors are distributing, while new investors are entering the market, indicating a clear transfer of ownership. In addition, the increasing balance of accumulation addresses—wallets that have never sold—suggests a positive long-term outlook.

However, from a short-term market perspective, the data presents a less encouraging picture. On the 1-hour timeframe, a divergence between price and open interest is emerging. While the spot market shows strength, futures traders appear reluctant to take on additional risk. If this lack of bullish positioning in the futures market continues, the current move could turn into a bull trap.

Since stablecoins began to see widespread adoption in 2018, the Bitcoin futures market has grown to be roughly 10 times larger than the spot market. This dynamic should not be underestimated. Historically, a true bull market tends to begin when both spot and futures markets show synchronized strength.

Written by MAC_D

First image:

Bitcoin’s price dropped from $126K to $60K and is now attempting to challenge the $75K level again.

Throughout this period of volatility, large whales holding more than 1,000 BTC steadily increased their holdings.

Will this once again prove that their decision was the right one?

Second image:

This shows the total Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges worldwide.

Not long ago, a large inflow of BTC into exchanges from external wallets triggered fear in the market.

Recently, however, we are seeing Bitcoin rapidly flowing back out of exchanges again.

In my view, they are among the most important metrics to watch right now, and I will continue monitoring them closely.

Written by CoinNiel

In March 2026, sentiment among on-chain analysts has begun to shift more positively. One platform highlighting this change is unbias, an AI-driven analytics site that identifies the top 1% of crypto analysts based on verified prediction accuracy rather than follower counts. The platform tracks over 250 analysts in real time and aggregates their forecasts into an “Analyst Consensus Index.” Each prediction is evaluated against market outcomes after 30 days, ensuring that analysts are judged by measurable track records rather than social media influence.

According to unbias data, analyst sentiment has gradually turned more constructive in recent weeks. Similar views are emerging from several CryptoQuant analysts.

Leo Ruga highlights Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which recently rose to 0.253, reclaiming the 0.25 “Optimism” threshold after three weeks below it. Importantly, this shift was driven more by a decline in unrealized losses than by a surge in profits, suggesting that market stress is easing rather than speculative enthusiasm returning.

Meanwhile, I. Moreno points to a structural liquidity signal. Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has crossed above its 90-day moving average, historically a pattern seen near early phases of new market expansions when exchange liquidity circulation begins to recover.

GugaOnChain also notes a potential “Great Transfer.” Over the past 30 days, large investors accumulated roughly 610,516 BTC, compared with only about 6,415 BTC by retail participants. At the same time, more than 15,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, indicating tightening available supply.

Taken together, these signals suggest that while a full bull market is not yet confirmed, liquidity conditions, institutional accumulation, and supply dynamics may be gradually laying the foundation for the next market cycle.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

[Bulls Are Back]

Despite the volatile macro environment, cryptos are seeing a bullish reversal, with Bitcoin ascending 8.6% within seven days. Ethereum, as a higher-beta digital asset, has climbed 13.9% in a week.

The recent move up clearly represents a risk-on shift, supported by strong ETF inflows, signaling institutional appetite.

[Ethereum’s Estimated Leverage Ratio Returns to Growth Trajectory]

The flash crash of October 10th represented a true leverage reset, reducing the Ethereum estimated leverage ratio (ELR) on Binance from 0.56 to 0.41, marking a -27% drop. The “10/10” will be known as the largest 24-hour liquidation event in crypto history. Over $19 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours.

Since then, the Ethereum estimated leverage ratio on Binance has gradually recovered, reaching a value of 0.69 in mid-March. The new ELR growth trajectory signals fresh optimism towards digital assets, with investors looking for additional leverage.

[About ELR]

CryptoQuant's Ethereum estimated leverage ratio (ELR) is a market indicator that measures the average leverage used by traders in the Ethereum derivatives market. It is calculated as: ELR = open interest ÷ exchange ETH reserve.

The ELR shows how much leverage traders are using on average, higher values mirror greater use of leverage (open positions growing faster relative to collateral/reserves), which often signals increased risk, higher trader risk appetite, and potential for elevated volatility or liquidations. On the other hand, lower values suggest more conservative positioning.

[What’s Next?]

The digital asset sentiment continues to improve, regaining the attention of traders. Bitcoin and Ethereum represent high-beta risk-on assets in this environment, while more conservative traders will likely accumulate gold-related tokens, including PAXG and XAUT.

Written by oinonen_t

Data on XRP reserves on Binance indicates significant changes in the supply structure available for trading on the largest exchange by liquidity in recent months. According to the latest data, XRP is trading near $1.5, while the total reserve of the cryptocurrency on Binance stands at approximately 2.782 billion XRP. This figure represents the highest level of XRP reserves on Binance since last November, reflecting an increase in the number of coins held in wallets on the platform recently.

The data shows that XRP reserves on Binance had been gradually declining since late last year, falling from levels above 2.8 billion XRP to around 2.55 billion XRP in February. A decrease in reserves on exchanges is typically interpreted as an indication of coins leaving the exchange and moving to private wallets or cold storage solutions, a behavior often linked to investor accumulation or a reduced intention to sell in the spot market.

However, in recent weeks, reserves have rebounded, reaching 2.78 billion XRP, the highest level since November. This increase may indicate rising inflows of coins to the platform, either for trading purposes or for the redistribution of liquidity within the market.

Structurally, a rise in reserves on exchanges is often interpreted as a potential increase in the tradable supply in the spot market, as a larger quantity of coins becomes available for immediate trading. However, this does not necessarily imply immediate selling pressure, as it can also reflect increased trading activity or investors positioning themselves ahead of potential market movements.

Written by Arab Chain

The opening of the traditional market this Monday confirms that the strong weekend movement was not a flash in the pan. Bitcoin breaks the $73,810 range anchored in an extremely clean market structure: the recent correction purged excess speculation (a drastic drop in Open Interest), transforming the current rally into a movement sustained by spot capital and strong long-term conviction.

WHAT IS HAPPENING? (THE GREAT WEALTH TRANSFER)

The on-chain "zoom out" shows one of the largest wealth transfers of the cycle. While global retail, reflected by the Korea Premium Index, capitulates (-0.555) amid a sentiment of Extreme Fear (23), North American institutions and large corporate treasuries are absorbing the positions. The statistical chasm is monumental: in the last 30 days, large investors accumulated an impressive 610,516 BTC against a meager 6,415 BTC from retail. Strategy just acquired 22,337 BTC with a $1.57 billion "check", Metaplanet adds $255M, and the Ultra Whales (>10K BTC) are accumulating aggressively — +24.07k BTC —, absorbing the supply dumped by smaller investors.

Custody data confirms a deep structural migration. With over 15K BTC withdrawn from exchanges in the last 9 days and miners holding onto their coins (negative MPI at -1.65), the market is observing a severe compression in the order book. The "crack" in short-term holders is showing signs of healing (STH-SOPR at 1.01), proving that the selling pressure is gradually being swallowed with ease.

WHERE ARE WE GOING? (THE TRANSFORMATION OF CEILING INTO FLOOR)

The ground is set and the on-chain structure is healed. Bitcoin is converting the 2024 ceiling into a new institutional floor, with capital focused on testing the $75.6K range (the break-even point of large treasuries). The focus now turns to confirming this voracious appetite with the reading of the Wall Street ETF inflows at the market close. The hidden force has already positioned itself; maintain vigilance and tactical positions.

Written by GugaOnChain

[The Bulls Are Back]

Despite the volatile macro environment, cryptos are seeing a bullish reversal, with Bitcoin ascending 8.6% within seven days. Ethereum, as a higher-beta digital asset, has climbed 13.9% in a week.

The recent move up clearly represents a risk-on shift, supported by strong ETF inflows, signaling institutional appetite.

[Ethereum’s Exchange Leverage Ratio Back to Growth Trajectory]

The flash crash of October 10th represented a true leverage reset, reducing the Ethereum exchange leverage ratio (ELR) on Binance from 0.56 to 0.41, marking a -27% drop. The “10/10” will be known as the largest 24-hour liquidation event in crypto history. Over $19 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within roughly 24 hours.

Since then, the Ethereum exchange leverage ratio on Binance has gradually recovered, reaching a value of 0.69 in mid-March. The new ELR growth trajectory signals fresh optimism towards digital assets, with investors looking for additional leverage.

[About the ELR]

CryptoQuant's Ethereum estimated leverage ratio (ELR) is a market indicator that measures the average leverage used by traders in the Ethereum derivatives/futures market. It is calculated as: ELR = Open Interest ÷ Exchange ETH Reserve.

The ELR shows how much leverage traders are using on average, higher values mirror greater use of leverage (open positions growing faster relative to collateral/reserves), which often signals increased risk, higher trader risk appetite, and potential for elevated volatility or liquidations. On the other hand, lower values suggest more conservative positioning.

[What’s Next?]

The digital asset sentiment continues to improve, regaining the attention of traders. Bitcoin and Ethereum represent high-beta risk-on assets in this environment, while more conservative traders will likely accumulate gold-related tokens, including PAXG and XAUT.

Written by oinonen_t

Based on Binance data, the Bitcoin Moving Average Convergence (MAC) indicator points to significant developments in Bitcoin's price trend structure during the current market cycle. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is trading near $73,000, while the key moving averages show a clear divergence in their positions. The 30-day moving average stands at around $68,661, the 90-day moving average at approximately $79,815, and the 200-day moving average at roughly $93,892. This divergence reflects a transitional phase in the trend structure, where the price is moving between short-term support levels and resistance levels associated with the long-term trend.

From a technical perspective, the 30-day moving average is an important indicator of short-term momentum, and the fact that the price remains above this average suggests continued buying support in the market. Conversely, the price remaining below the 90-day and 200-day moving averages may indicate the continuation of a correction or rebalancing phase following a previous upward surge. Traders often use the interaction between these moving averages to identify trend changes, as their convergence or divergence can signal the beginning of a new bullish cycle or the continuation of a consolidation phase.

The data also shows that the Z-Score is registering a reading close to -0.57, a negative value indicating that the price is trading below its relative historical average within this analytical model. Typically, negative values suggest that the market may be in a consolidation phase after periods of overvaluation, or that it is undergoing a gradual accumulation phase before a larger price move.

Written by Arab Chain

⚠ Bitcoin Liquidity Is Rotating Again ⚠

Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has recently flipped back into bullish territory as the indicator crosses above its 90-day moving average. Historically, this signal has marked important transitions in market structure, particularly after prolonged periods of suppressed liquidity rotation between exchanges.

The IFP measures the intensity of BTC transfers between centralized exchanges, capturing how liquidity is redistributed across trading venues by market makers, arbitrage desks, and large institutional participants. When this activity accelerates, it often reflects a renewed willingness of professional capital to reposition inventory in anticipation of increased trading opportunities.

Looking at the long-term chart, most bullish regime shifts occurred after extended periods in which the indicator remained below its 90-day moving average (red zones). Once the metric reclaims the trend, Bitcoin has historically entered sustained expansion phases. These transitions were observed in the early stages of the 2016–2017 rally, again during the 2019 liquidity rotation that preceded the 2020-2021 bull market, and after the 2022 cycle bottom.

The current signal appears in a similar context. After a prolonged contraction in inter-exchange flows throughout 2025, the indicator has begun to recover and has now crossed its trend filter.

This does not necessarily imply immediate upside or the absence of volatility. Past signals show that even after the regime turns bullish, Bitcoin can still experience sharp pullbacks or consolidation phases. However, historically these corrections have occurred within broader bullish liquidity regimes rather than during structural market declines.

In practical terms, the signal suggests that liquidity mobility inside the exchange network is increasing again, a condition typically associated with early expansion phases of market cycles.

Written by MorenoDV_

Open Interest has been trending downward for a long time and currently sits at relatively low levels. This suggests that a large portion of speculative leveraged positions has already been cleared from the market. When Open Interest declines together with price, it usually indicates that the market is being flushed of excessive leverage.

Although the price remains weak, Open Interest now appears to be stabilizing near its lower range. This structure often emerges when selling momentum begins to fade and the market starts preparing for a potential new trend.

With fewer leveraged positions in the system, declines tend to lose speed because forced liquidations become less dominant. The market is no longer crowded with long or short positions, which creates a healthier environment for the next directional move. From this point, the key factor will be new capital entering the market.

A slight recovery in Open Interest is also visible near the end of the chart. If Open Interest rises together with price, it may signal that new positions are opening in the direction of the trend. However, if Open Interest increases while price remains weak, the market could simply be rebuilding leverage, which may lead to another volatility wave.

At this stage, spot investors will likely determine the direction. Binance data is particularly important because its derivatives market represents one of the largest liquidity pools in crypto, often reflecting the overall leverage appetite across the altcoin market.

While aggressive leveraged selling is no longer visible, a strong risk appetite has not yet returned either. As price action suggests, strong spot demand is still missing. For a sustainable rally to begin, that demand will need to emerge.

Written by PelinayPA

NUPL printed 0.253 on March 15 with BTC at $73.8K. Back above 0.25 for the first time in three weeks.

Some perspective. NUPL sat above 0.50 through most of mid-2025. It collapsed to 0.10 by February. Going from 0.10 to 0.25 is not a recovery to previous levels. It's the market barely stepping out of the anxiety zone after one of the sharpest NUPL drawdowns this cycle.

What NUPL Does

It measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss across all BTC holders. Above 0.50 is Belief. Above 0.25 is Optimism. Below 0.25 is Anxiety. Below 0 is Capitulation. Right now we just crossed back into the lower end of Optimism. Barely.

What Actually Moved

This is the part most people will miss.

Unrealized Profit (NUP) barely changed. It was 0.366 on February 24 and it's 0.388 now. Holders didn't capitulate. They sat through the entire drawdown with coins that were still green.

What drove the NUPL recovery is Unrealized Loss. NUL dropped from 0.219 to 0.136 in 19 days. A 38% compression. Fewer coins are underwater now. Not because new money flooded in, but because the market slowly repriced above where recent buyers entered.

The pain is shrinking. The confidence isn't back yet.

Why 0.25 Matters Right Now

NUPL spent three weeks between 0.17 and 0.23. March 4 and 5 briefly touched 0.249 and 0.230. Both faded. This is the first print cleanly above 0.25 with NUL still compressing underneath.

One day above 0.25 is a data point. Consecutive days with shrinking NUL would be something more.

Coming from 0.50+ to barely reclaiming 0.25, is NUL compression enough to hold this, or does it fade like the last two attempts?

Written by RugaResearch

Michael Saylor has just announced that Strategy has carried out its largest Bitcoin purchase since the beginning of the year.

You have to go back to November 2024 to see such a large amount of BTC purchased by Strategy.

Strategy bought 22,337 BTC last week at around $70,194 per bitcoin, surpassing the previous record of 22,307 BTC purchased in January.

Despite a correction of more than 50%, Strategy continues to hold the BTC it previously acquired and keeps raising funds through convertible notes or the issuance of new shares on the stock market.

Today, Strategy announced that it holds 761,068 BTC acquired at an average price of about $75,696 per bitcoin.

With Bitcoin back around $74,000, Michael Saylor’s company is now close to breaking even again on its BTC holdings.

Written by Darkfost

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is a critical barometer for market sentiment and potential exhaustion. By highlighting that values above zero indicate a profitable investor base, the assessment accurately points out that increasing profit levels naturally heighten sell pressure.

The observation regarding the shift from the 0.5–0.75 "Belief/Greed" band down to the 0–0.25 "Hope/Fear" area by Q1 2026 aligns with historical bearish transitions.

Most importantly, the analysis remains grounded in historical precedent: major market bottoms typically only form when the NUPL dips into negative territory (below 0), representing total capitulation. Because the current metric has instead bounced back toward the 0.25–0.50 range, the market appears prone to a "bull trap."

This suggests that the probability of bearish cycle is likely far from over, as the necessary flush-out of profitable holders has not yet reached the extremes required for a true price floor in BTC, yet.

Written by TopNotchYJ

Data from the Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio indicates clear shifts in the structure of the available supply for trading across cryptocurrency exchanges recently. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $73000, while the Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio across all exchanges stands at around 0.13386. This represents the lowest level for the index since 2018, reflecting a decline in the percentage of Bitcoin held on exchanges relative to the total supply. This drop suggests a continued outflow of coins from exchanges to private wallets or cold storage solutions, a behavior often associated with a growing preference for long-term holding rather than short-term trading.

Focusing on Binance, the largest exchange by liquidity, the data reveals a similar pattern. The Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio on Binance stands at approximately 0.03237, marking its lowest level since last January. This decrease indicates a decline in the amount of Bitcoin held in exchange wallets relative to the total supply, reflecting continued withdrawals from the platform or the transfer of part of the liquidity to private wallets or other exchanges.

Historically, when the supply held on exchanges falls to low levels, it indicates a reduction in the amount of Bitcoin available for immediate sale in the market. In such cases, the market tends to become more sensitive to any new surge in demand, as buying inflows can lead to larger price movements due to the limited supply available for sale.

Written by Arab Chain

Since 2023, an extended period of whale activity has preceded massive price uptrends.

On six occasions between 2023 and 2026, whale orders have dominated the market. The longest period extended five months before the breakout, and the shortest, three months.

Interestingly, Bitcoin is currently trading within a period where big whales dominate. Starting in November, the big holders became more active. They've been active for more than 4 months now.

Based on the previous trend, a breakout or a massive surge will occur within the next three months.

Written by Gideon Geoffery

The SOPR ratio between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) is now approaching levels that historically appeared during bear market phases.

In previous cycles — particularly 2019 and 2022–2023 — the ratio compressed into the 0.5–0.6 range as market conditions deteriorated.

This compression typically signals a shift in market dynamics:

Long-term holders begin realizing losses

Short-term holders dominate transaction activity

Capitulation pressure spreads across the market

Currently, the ratio is once again moving toward this same historical zone.

If the ratio continues to decline toward 0.5, it would indicate that long-term holders are increasingly forced to spend coins at a loss — a behavior often associated with deeper bear market stress.

Conclusion

The LTH/STH SOPR ratio is approaching levels historically seen during bear market transitions.

While this does not necessarily mark the final bottom, it suggests that market stress is increasing and further downside pressure may still develop before a full capitulation phase is reached.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

1) Exchange Whale Ratio The Exchange Whale Ratio has recently climbed to around 0.74, and overall, the indicator continues to show a higher-than-usual whale presence in recent sessions. In simple terms, this metric tracks how much of the inflow to exchanges is being driven by large holders. As the ratio rises, whale activity is more likely to have a greater impact on market behavior. In other words, this is a market environment where traders should pay closer attention to whale-driven exchange flows rather than focusing only on retail participation.

2) Coinbase Premium The Coinbase Premium has recently been fluctuating between positive and negative territory, but it has now slipped back into the negative range. This suggests that U.S. spot demand is not showing a consistently strong bid. Instead, it appears to be entering, weakening, and then becoming unstable again. So while price may be attempting a rebound, it is still difficult to say that the move is being strongly supported by solid spot buying demand.

Written by COINDREAM

📰 Daily Market Update:

3 different charts are showing activity we haven’t seen in weeks or even months.

📊 [BTC] - Binance Whale to Exchange Flow

The chart tracks the cumulative Bitcoin inflows to Binance over a 30-day period, separating them into two main groups:

👨‍💼 Exchange Retail Inflow (30D Sum) – smaller investors

🐳 Exchange Whale Inflow (30D Sum) – large holders or whales

📉 The data highlights a sharp decline in Bitcoin deposits to Binance from both investors.

🔬 Key Observation:

📉 Retail inflows dropped significantly between February 6 and March 16, falling from $14.2B to around $6B.

📉 At the same time, whale inflows also decreased strongly. Between March 1 and March 16, whale deposits declined from $8.8B to roughly $4.5B.

⏲️ Historically, Such declines in exchange inflows historically reduce selling pressure, since fewer coins are available on spot markets.

📊 USDT: Total Mint and Burn on Tron / Ethereum

This chart tracks the total issuance (minting) and destruction (burning) of USDT on both networks, providing insight into stablecoin liquidity entering or leaving the crypto ecosystem.

🔬 Key Observation:

📈 On March 11, Tron experienced a massive $1 billion USDT minting event.

📈 Interestingly, this mint occurred shortly before Bitcoin broke above the $72K level, suggesting a possible increase in market liquidity around that time.

📈 The previous mint event of the same size took place on February 6, which means the March 11 issuance represents the first major liquidity expansion in over a month.

⏲️ The creation of new USDT can signal fresh capital entering the market, potentially increasing available liquidity for trading activity.

📊 [Bitcoin ETF] Daily Netflow Trend

Institutional demand is also shifting. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded two consecutive positive inflows:

📈 Mar 12 → $1.93B net inflow.

📈 Mar 13 → $803M net inflow.

⏲️ Positive ETF flows reflect direct BTC buying pressure, reinforcing market support from institutional investors.

Written by Amr Taha

• The Merge - Sep 2022.

• Data source: CryptoQuant.

• If you'd like to learn more about the history of Japanese candlesticks, check the link below.

Written by _OnChain

The growth rate of Bitcoin holdings among addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC ("dolphins") has declined after a strong expansion phase during 2025.

This cohort represents mid-sized whales, participants larger than typical retail investors but generally more active than the largest long-term holders.

Historically, dolphin holdings tend to grow during periods of market expansion as momentum strengthens. Similar accumulation phases were observed in previous cycles before the growth rate of holdings began to moderate.

After peaking near roughly 900K BTC in annual additions, the 1-year change declined significantly, falling toward approximately 440K BTC before rebounding toward around 550K BTC in recent weeks.

While the 1-year change remains positive, indicating that dolphins are still accumulating on a net basis, the slowing growth rate suggests that the pace of accumulation among this cohort has moderated.

The recent rebound may indicate that dolphins continue to absorb liquidity during market pullbacks, although overall accumulation momentum remains lower than during the earlier expansion phase.

Source: CryptoQuant

Written by Zizcrypto