The SOPR ratio between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) is now approaching levels that historically appeared during bear market phases.
In previous cycles — particularly 2019 and 2022–2023 — the ratio compressed into the 0.5–0.6 range as market conditions deteriorated.
This compression typically signals a shift in market dynamics:
Long-term holders begin realizing losses
Short-term holders dominate transaction activity
Capitulation pressure spreads across the market
Currently, the ratio is once again moving toward this same historical zone.
If the ratio continues to decline toward 0.5, it would indicate that long-term holders are increasingly forced to spend coins at a loss — a behavior often associated with deeper bear market stress.
Conclusion
The LTH/STH SOPR ratio is approaching levels historically seen during bear market transitions.
While this does not necessarily mark the final bottom, it suggests that market stress is increasing and further downside pressure may still develop before a full capitulation phase is reached.
Written by 우민규 Woominkyu