链研社lianyanshe

Don't go against the cycles; this is the most important lesson I learned from the last cycle. There is no super cycle, and don't blindly trust the big players; several of them get sacrificed each round.

In the past few days, I reviewed the current bear market, which is basically following the same pattern as the last bear market.

Last cycle (May 2022): $30,000 was considered the iron bottom of the super cycle at that time because it was the starting point after the disaster on May 19, 2021, and also the support of the weekly 120. I particularly remember that when it broke below $30,000, the fear index was already below 10, and a lot of bottom-fishing funds believed it couldn't drop further or that it was time to rebound.

Current cycle (February 2026): $80,000, which used to be a strong support level, has now become a strong resistance level at the weekly MA120. $80,000 is also the cost price for Bitcoin mining companies. The current $76,000 feels like the brief struggle after breaking below $30,000 in the last cycle; the market may very well have one more action that thoroughly shatters confidence, such as touching the peak of the last cycle at $69,000.

If it falls below $70,000, it will trigger a larger-scale stop-loss and liquidation, which could potentially exceed the massive trading volume from November 2025. Without extreme panic, rebounds often just serve to entice buyers.

During the cycle, never let emotions lead you astray; in extreme trend markets, emotional indicators can be misleading. A fear index of 10 indicates that retail investors are already hopeless, but the main players may still be using this despair for one last deep squat. Trend lines are more direct than any indicator; as long as the price remains below MA120, all upward movements are merely rebounds rather than reversals.

In the past few days, Bitcoin has also been constantly hitting new lows, recalling the trend of the last cycle. The expectation for a rebound after breaking down with volume in place is 20%, back then from $26,700 to $32,399. Based on the current situation, it can only be inferred that only after breaking $70,000 will there be significant volume released, with rebound expectations reaching slightly above $80,000 at the weekly MA120, anticipating a 15% increase.

Additionally, if viewed from the cycle perspective, Bitcoin should bottom out in November to December. What could the price be then? $70,000? $60,000? Or even lower?

ByteDance is the pinnacle that the six major factions of the internet cannot conquer. Unlike Tencent at the time, which solely relied on plagiarism, ByteDance has many innovations in business models. Its profits have already surpassed Tencent and Alibaba, with revenues comparable to Meta. It's worth noting that Meta's market value is 1.7 trillion USD, which is as much as the combined market cap of several Chinese internet companies.

1. Punching Tencent: The 1 billion yuan red envelope was criticized, and its own AI couldn't make a mark. When Doubao's Spring Festival activities came out, it turned into making a wedding dress for ByteDance. Soda Music allows free music listening, breaking through QQ Music's copyright wall. Hongguo Short Dramas are seizing survival space from Tencent Video.

2. Kicking Alibaba: Douyin e-commerce creates consumer demand through live-streaming e-commerce, with a projected GMV growth of 30% in 2025, leveling the field with Pinduoduo. Although Alibaba Cloud and AI infrastructure occupy a leading position, Huoshan Cloud is making a comeback with AI, holding the second-largest market share and growing rapidly. In AI applications, Doubao is far ahead, with daily active users exceeding 100 million, surpassing Quark and Qianwen.

3. Defeating Meituan: Douyin's local life services have already split the market with Meituan and Dazhong Dianping, using videos to create demand and changing consumer mindset. The food delivery battlefield remains unclaimed, but Meituan also cannot dominate against Alibaba's competition. Its core business is losing its advantage.

4. Disrupting Xiaomi: After acquiring Smartisan Technology, ByteDance has also been developing mobile operating systems and smart hardware. Recently, Doubao's smartphone made an astonishing debut, along with attempts at AI smart hardware. Future smartphones will no longer center around apps but around AI Agents, giving ByteDance the opportunity to disrupt the existing smartphone landscape.

5. Cleaning up Baidu: The search mindset has shifted; who still uses Baidu? People search for strategies on Douyin and ask questions on Doubao, and traffic entry points have quietly shifted. Baidu, which got up early but arrived late, has a weak presence in the AI field.

6. Cutting down Kuaishou: Before and after Kuaishou's IPO, the two companies faced off during the Spring Festival with excessive force. After that, Kuaishou fell into a slump. It barely regained some presence in video generation AI, but ByteDance's latest release, Seedance, directly topped the global charts.

Unfortunately, such an excellent company has not gone public, making stocks unavailable and severely impacting the Chinese internet sector. The so-called competitive barriers of these companies are of no use in front of ByteDance.

Found the news about Binance's collaboration with Franklin Templeton on the Benji technology platform today. Strangely, there hasn’t been much reaction; it seems the market has underestimated the impact of this matter.

After the FTX incident, institutional investors are extremely sensitive about depositing assets into trading platforms. A lot of money has not entered the crypto world, such as the CME's contract positions and Bitcoin ETFs. Now this plan introduces Franklin Templeton's regulated framework, allowing assets to remain in banks/regulatory platforms, and credit in exchange trading resolves the counterparty risk that institutions are most concerned about. Multiple times more funds could potentially flow from traditional finance to crypto.

As BlackRock's BUIDL fund and Franklin's Benji platform continue to grow, institutions will convert more traditional cash into the crypto space. Binance is essentially seizing asset shares from banks and traditional brokerages.

There are similar examples in traditional finance, so there’s no need to worry about escalating risks. On Wall Street, when a hedge fund wants to borrow money from a bank for trading, they do not directly hand over government bonds to the bank, but instead give them to a third-party custodian bank. The custodian bank is responsible for verifying the collateral's value and managing risk. The collaboration between Binance and Franklin Templeton essentially reproduces this tri-party structure in the crypto world.

Moreover, top investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also allow large clients to use their held stocks and bonds as collateral for leveraged trading in various markets, giving Binance functionalities similar to those of traditional investment banks.

Vitalik is very good at handling these metaphysical things, and I don't know what he's talking about. But in specific practical scenarios, we can't see what has actually been done. Is Ethereum's rise due to its fundamentals? If Ethereum can maintain its current market value in the next few years, that would be really good, so don't have too high hopes.

The crypto world needs AI to survive, but AI doesn't necessarily need cryptocurrency $ETH

I just found out that Binance's TradFi contracts have no fees for limit orders, and the fee for market orders is 0.02250%. If this is used for grid trading (grid strategies are mostly limit orders, and fees are also a significant part), it might not be bad. The US stock market's long bull and slow rise are suitable for such strategies.

Now, including gold, silver, and quite a few US stocks, they can be traded on the platform. The trading volume for gold and silver is not low, exceeding 1 billion in 24 hours, while the stock category is still relatively small. Tesla's 24-hour trading volume is 8.37 million. With such quality assets available, engaging in altcoin contracts and funds will likely be much less, as altcoins face competition from US stocks, which have almost no advantages.

However, US stock contracts differ from holding spot assets due to funding rates, which affect holding costs. Although the funding rates for stock-type assets are lower than those for BTC and ETH (less than 10%), another downside is that contracts do not allow for dividends. This addresses the pain points on both sides: the crypto space lacks quality assets, but the US stock market has them. While the US stock market has quality assets, betting on them is challenging, and US stock contracts solve this issue. $TSLA

MicroStrategy's maximum floating profit exceeded $33 billion, and this morning it fell below $60,000, which means MicroStrategy faces a paper floating loss of over $11.4 billion.

Many people are curious about how they survived the last bear market? Will this bear market lead to liquidation?

First, let's review that MicroStrategy's holding cost in the last round was $30,000. They managed to survive the bear markets of 2022 and 2023 because their approach was different from leveraged cryptocurrency trading, as they engaged in long-term debt financing.

Most of the debt ($2.2 billion) is unsecured convertible bonds, which can cross cycle and mature between 2025-2028. The most dangerous time was when a $200 million mortgage fell below $21,000, triggering a margin call notice, but at that time, MicroStrategy had 130,000 bitcoins, which could pull the liquidation line down to $3,561.

In this round, according to their financial report:
Total holdings: 713,502 BTC (Total cost $54.26 billion)
Average cost: $76,052
Core debt: Convertible bonds $8.21 billion
Preferred stock: $8.39 billion
Total leverage scale: $16.6 billion
Cash reserves: $2.25 billion

In 2025, they also raised $25.3 billion through stock issuance (ATM issuance) without the need to repay principal and interest.

From the data, MicroStrategy has almost no risk of liquidation.
1. Currently, the cash on hand is sufficient to cover the interest on current debts and preferred stock dividends for 30 months (2.5 years).
2. The 710,000 BTC is not pledged, so there is no risk of forced liquidation like in the previous round.
3. The maturity date is far away; the recent large-scale debt is due in the third quarter of 2027. Before 2027, regardless of how low the coin price drops, MicroStrategy has no legal obligation to repay the principal.

However, the biggest problem now is that although there is no liquidation risk, due to the disappearance of the premium, MicroStrategy cannot continue to finance through ATM to buy coins, interrupting the compound growth. By 2027, if the bitcoin price is below $76,000, MicroStrategy will also be unable to issue new debt to repay old debt for turnover. At that time, they might sell a small amount of bitcoin for turnover or issue a large volume of junk bonds to repay debts, but whether anyone will buy is a question.

After Bitcoin's single-day drop exceeding 10% in history, the probability of an increase in the following week is about 62%, with an average return of 3.8% after a week and a maximum drawdown of 5-10% (usually occurring in a bear market)

Since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced single-day drops exceeding 10% approximately 50 to 60 times.

The statistical probability of an increase is about 60-65%, and in most cases, the first week after a crash sees a recovery market. The average increase is 2-5%.

Historical classic events:
March 12, 2020 (312 Incident): A single-day drop of nearly 40%, but a week later, the price rebounded about 20% from the bottom.

May 19, 2021: A single-day drop of about 15%, followed by a week of wide fluctuations, ultimately closing with a slight increase.

August 17, 2023: A single-day drop of about 10%, and a week later, the price remained basically flat at a low level.

October 2025 (recent): There was a drop of over 10% in a single day, followed by a recovery of about 4% of the drop within a week.

Bitcoin is still dropping 📉, I really can't stand it. Many retail investors felt they could bottom out a couple of days ago, but unexpectedly, they couldn’t even save their underwear. This year's New Year is probably going to be tough.

Let's take a look at @Plasma ; the market trend is also following Bitcoin. Although it has endorsements from big institutions like Bitfinex and Framework, it has recently dropped significantly due to several hard issues:

Token release pressure: $XPL just experienced a large-scale unlock (about 88 million tokens) at the end of January 2026. This release of chips, combined with a sluggish market sentiment, makes it difficult for the price to hold up.
The awkwardness of the infrastructure period: Payment networks need a large number of merchants and users to connect to be valuable. When the market is poor, everyone tends to “hold coins” or “withdraw funds” rather than “pay and consume,” which may lead to its implementation speed being slower than expected.

Reminder 🔔: The value feedback of infrastructure tokens is often very slow, so don't blindly go all in during major market fluctuations.

#plasma $XPL

Don't go against the cycle. Yesterday it was still 76400, and today it broke 70000. I didn't expect that 😂. When it reached the previous highest point of 69000, I just didn't expect that there was hardly any trading volume at this position, even less than the trading volume on November 21, which indicates that there aren't many people buying the dip. Binance probably has to buy 100 million dollars every day at this position.

If it holds, it should bounce back, but it will only be a weak rebound facing resistance from the weekly MA120 above. If it doesn't move, it will continue to bury people.

The era of trader coding has also arrived, and all open-source code on GitHub can be used by me. For deploying projects, I used the trae tool developed by Byte, and found an open-source financial dashboard on GitHub, which I deployed in about a few minutes.

The steps are very simple:
1. Search for the open-source project situation-monitor on GitHub.
2. Start the SOLO Builder mode in trae, prompt: GitHub link + please deploy this project for me.
3. After successful deployment, you can browse locally, but it's in English, and some data is missing, so the interface needs to be localized, and the API needs configuration.
4. Localize the page: prompt 【Change all functional interfaces to Chinese】 and accept all changes.
5. Configure the API: prompt 【What APIs need to be configured here】, register according to the two provided URLs to get the API configuration.
6. Since the information source is still in English, it's best to use an immersive translation experience when opening the webpage.

Are there any other useful open-source trading projects to share?
👇

Tonight, 50,000 portions of alpha were snatched up in just 6 minutes, dropping a tier, and then only 26U, not even reaching 30U. When will the winter of alpha end?

I really feel emotional, it's better than writing an essay for XPL, just to earn some.

In the China region, 500 people can be selected, currently the score of the 500th person is 126 points. As long as the articles are well written, 2 pieces can surpass that.

Specific operations:
1. Follow the square + follow Twitter for a total of 10 points.
2. Trading 10U-1000U daily can add 1-10 points.
3. One piece on Twitter daily adds 5 points.
4. The most important thing is writing articles. Short articles can have a maximum of one piece each day, with a full score of 100 points. The better it's written, the more points you'll earn.

Encourage everyone to try more, it's stronger than alpha.
#plasma $XPL

Binance's address bought 1315 BTC for 100 million USD. There are still 800 million USD in stablecoins.

Binance BTC observation address 1BAuq7Vho2CEkVkUxbfU26LhwQjbCmWQkD

StandX January Update

Daily trading volume exceeded $1B.

800+ BTC liquidity (only 10bps spread), outperforming most CEX and DEX.

Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) perpetual contracts launched.

Introducing Maker points to enhance liquidity; even if qualifying limit orders have never been executed, they will continue to accumulate, applicable to all trading pairs including BTC, ETH, XAG, XAU.

To follow StandX, check their Twitter account updates👇

This time, Wall Street employed the classic tactic of harvesting in gold and silver.

After the sharp decline in gold and silver last Friday, JPMorgan closed out 3.17 million ounces of silver short positions at a price of $78.29, making a huge profit.

This indicates that at the high point of silver, JPMorgan had already set up short positions, accurately breaking through silver. However, this is not the most shocking part.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan released a research report: Due to strong demand from central banks and investors, it is expected that by the end of the year, gold prices will reach $6,300 per ounce.

It must be said that this time Wall Street truly wiped out both bulls and bears; with such large fluctuations, as long as leverage was applied, whether bulls or bears, all faced liquidation, and white silver instantly flowed into the pockets of financial giants!

Trump's tariff strategy has once again succeeded. The original threat to impose a 50% tariff on India has now been reduced to 18%, provided that India stops importing oil from Russia and purchases $500 billion worth of American energy products, among other conditions. India has also agreed to gradually reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers on American products to zero.

European politicians have been shouting slogans for two years, yet they are still indirectly providing financial support to Putin (India imports Russian energy and re-exports it to Europe). This move directly undermines Putin's resources and has completed the bundling of American and Indian interests.

Now we will see how the U.S. Supreme Court rules on Trump's tariff policy. If it maintains the existing policy, then the tariff policy will be set in stone. If it rejects it, the Trump administration is already prepared with alternatives, using other U.S. laws to indirectly implement the original tariff policy. This is the most frightening aspect, as it means Trump has gained global regulatory power that surpasses the Federal Reserve—those who follow me will see markets open, while those who oppose me will face high walls.

Well, now that Trump has achieved his goals, it’s time to stop, right? No more reckless actions.

I just checked the account, and the money from participating in the USD1 investment has arrived, with rewards being WLFI, distributed weekly. I calculated that the earnings in the account are about 15%. If you want to participate, remember to transfer USD1 to the contract account (no need to open a position), and then upgrade the account to a unified account.

Fortunately, the part of USD1 that was invested can still preserve the principal and grow steadily; otherwise, the drawdown in the past few days has been quite large. Now USD1 also supports many mainstream cryptocurrencies, so you can directly use USD1 to buy when trying to catch the bottom.

In addition to holding investment positions, there is also a USD1 points program that was just launched a few days ago, with a prize pool of 12 million WLFI. The guaranteed spots are gone, and now only the trading leaderboard spots remain.

I verified on-chain that it is true. Binance has committed to using $1 billion to purchase reserve assets on the exchange, and they have already used $100 million to buy 1,315 BTC, with an average price of about $76,000. It is estimated that this purchase was made directly on the Binance exchange, as seen in the 15-minute BTC candlestick chart, where there was a sudden spike with a trading volume of $100 million.

From now on, the two addresses of Binance can be monitored. One is the BTC address 1BAuq7Vho2CEkVkUxbfU26LhwQjbCmWQkD

The other is the SAFU address 0x420ef1f25563593af5fe3f9b9d3bc56a8bd8c104

$BTC

24 hours exploded with 2.565 billion USD, and long positions exploded with 2.4 billion USD.

In the early morning, Bitcoin even dropped below MicroStrategy's cost price, piercing down to 75179, breaking below the weekly MA120, setting a new low since the trade war in April 2025.

Ethereum's MicroStrategy company Bitmine (BMNR) has a holding price of $3867, which is close to being halved, indicating that this is a company designed to cash out.

ETH's dead long position holder Yili Hua has a holding cost of $3180, a liquidation line of $1866, with nearly 500 million USD in floating losses. However, he previously mentioned that he prepared ample backup funds, stating that leverage positions above $1000 in ETH are safe.

Is this time different? The result is always the same; where is the super cycle? Several big players have been slapped in the face. The last round saw Three Arrows and SBF fall; who will be the big player to fall this round?

Oh my god, thank you Binance Square. I finally received the 1BNB creator reward. Recently, the traffic on Twitter hasn't been good, but the traffic on Square has improved. The Square is getting better and better.