Don't go against the cycle. Yesterday it was still 76400, and today it broke 70000. I didn't expect that 😂. When it reached the previous highest point of 69000, I just didn't expect that there was hardly any trading volume at this position, even less than the trading volume on November 21, which indicates that there aren't many people buying the dip. Binance probably has to buy 100 million dollars every day at this position.

Don't go against the cycles; this is the most important lesson I learned from the last cycle. There is no super cycle, and don't blindly trust the big players; several of them get sacrificed each round.

In the past few days, I reviewed the current bear market, which is basically following the same pattern as the last bear market.

Last cycle (May 2022): $30,000 was considered the iron bottom of the super cycle at that time because it was the starting point after the disaster on May 19, 2021, and also the support of the weekly 120. I particularly remember that when it broke below $30,000, the fear index was already below 10, and a lot of bottom-fishing funds believed it couldn't drop further or that it was time to rebound.

Current cycle (February 2026): $80,000, which used to be a strong support level, has now become a strong resistance level at the weekly MA120. $80,000 is also the cost price for Bitcoin mining companies. The current $76,000 feels like the brief struggle after breaking below $30,000 in the last cycle; the market may very well have one more action that thoroughly shatters confidence, such as touching the peak of the last cycle at $69,000.

If it falls below $70,000, it will trigger a larger-scale stop-loss and liquidation, which could potentially exceed the massive trading volume from November 2025. Without extreme panic, rebounds often just serve to entice buyers.

During the cycle, never let emotions lead you astray; in extreme trend markets, emotional indicators can be misleading. A fear index of 10 indicates that retail investors are already hopeless, but the main players may still be using this despair for one last deep squat. Trend lines are more direct than any indicator; as long as the price remains below MA120, all upward movements are merely rebounds rather than reversals.

In the past few days, Bitcoin has also been constantly hitting new lows, recalling the trend of the last cycle. The expectation for a rebound after breaking down with volume in place is 20%, back then from $26,700 to $32,399. Based on the current situation, it can only be inferred that only after breaking $70,000 will there be significant volume released, with rebound expectations reaching slightly above $80,000 at the weekly MA120, anticipating a 15% increase.

Additionally, if viewed from the cycle perspective, Bitcoin should bottom out in November to December. What could the price be then? $70,000? $60,000? Or even lower?