After Bitcoin's single-day drop exceeding 10% in history, the probability of an increase in the following week is about 62%, with an average return of 3.8% after a week and a maximum drawdown of 5-10% (usually occurring in a bear market)

Since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced single-day drops exceeding 10% approximately 50 to 60 times.

The statistical probability of an increase is about 60-65%, and in most cases, the first week after a crash sees a recovery market. The average increase is 2-5%.

Historical classic events:

March 12, 2020 (312 Incident): A single-day drop of nearly 40%, but a week later, the price rebounded about 20% from the bottom.

May 19, 2021: A single-day drop of about 15%, followed by a week of wide fluctuations, ultimately closing with a slight increase.

August 17, 2023: A single-day drop of about 10%, and a week later, the price remained basically flat at a low level.

October 2025 (recent): There was a drop of over 10% in a single day, followed by a recovery of about 4% of the drop within a week.