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BITCOIN FUNDING RATES HIT EXTREME NEGATIVE LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE 2024 BOTTOM
Coinstages
11:00 PM・Feb 15, 2026
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Bitcoin (BTC) is teetering on the edge of a major volatility event as of February 15, 2026, with aggressive short-sellers crowding into the market. Aggregated funding rates have plunged to their most deeply negative levels since August 2024 a period that historically marked a definitive price bottom and preceded a massive 83% rally. While BTC currently trades near $69,815, just below the critical $70,610 resistance, the market is primed for a high-stakes short squeeze. If bulls can force a decisive close above $70,000, a cascade of forced short-covering could rapidly accelerate the price toward $73,499 and potentially a new recovery target of $76,685.
Negative Funding Rates: A Contrarian Bull Signal?
The derivatives market is currently exhibiting extreme bearish positioning that often acts as a fuel for sharp price reversals.
Deeply Negative Funding: Current funding levels are the lowest in 18 months. When funding is negative, short-sellers are paying long-position holders to keep their trades open, signaling a market saturated with "Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt" (FUD).
The August 2024 Parallel: In late 2024, a similar surge in short-selling preceded a trend reversal that saw Bitcoin gain 83% over the following four months. Analysts suggest the current setup is a "powder keg" that could ignite if shorts are forced to liquidate simultaneously.
The Hope/Fear Zone: Holder Sentiment Under Strain
While derivatives traders are betting on a crash, long-term holders are seeing their profit cushions evaporate.
NUPL Compression: The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has returned to the Hope/Fear zone (0.18). This suggests that current holders have very thin profit margins, making the market highly reactive to even small price swings.
Capitulation Risk: Historically, a drop into this zone can either signal a durable bottom or a final period of capitulation before a recovery. Without a clear reset in sentiment, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to short-term pullbacks toward the $65,156 support.
Technical Setup: The Push Past $70,610
Bitcoin’s technical indicators are showing early signs of a bullish crossover, though confirmation is still required.
Momentum Shifts: The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is approaching the zero line, indicating that demand is beginning to neutralize the recent outflow. Additionally, a potential bullish crossover in the MACD suggests a shift from bearish to bullish momentum is underway.
Upside Targets: A clean break above $70,610 would be the definitive signal for a short squeeze. Initial targets for this move sit near $73,499, with a secondary goal of $76,685 to invalidate the current bearish macro-thesis.
Essential Financial Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of extreme negative Bitcoin funding rates and the potential for an 83% rally are based on technical analysis and historical data as of February 15, 2026. Negative funding rates are a contrarian signal and do not guarantee a price increase; they can also persist during prolonged downtrends. Bitcoin remains an extremely volatile asset; the $69,815 valuation is subject to rapid shifts, and a breakdown below the $65,156 support could lead to significant capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in the cryptocurrency or derivatives markets.
Do you think the extreme negative funding is the "short squeeze of the decade," or are the bears right to bet on a sub-$65k reset?