MRkorai

(Minha opinião baseada em matemática, não em emoções)
Antes de tentar prever o futuro, prefiro olhar para o que já aconteceu.
BTC atingiu cerca de 126K e caiu para 60K.
Isso é uma correção de 52%.
ETH atingiu perto de 4950 e caiu para 1750.
Isso é uma correção de 65%.
Isso nos diz algo importante:
ETH não apenas seguiu o BTC — reagiu de forma exagerada.
Aproximadamente 1,2x a 1,3x mais volátil, principalmente devido à alavancagem e vendas em pânico.
Aquela primeira onda de danos já aconteceu.
Agora, a verdadeira questão não é se ETH pode cair mais.

I’ve talked a lot about the illusions in crypto.
I’ve laughed at “altcoin season” promises.
I’ve even said before that if you want badly enough, you can make any chart look bullish — flip it upside down and voilà 🙂
It’s Sunday. I’m scrolling mindlessly, and once again I see the same recycled lines:
Altcoin season is coming
These prices will never come again
BTC$BTC has bottomed
Again.
And again.
And again.
Funny thing?
That “bottom” was 100k once.
Then 90k.
Then 75k.
Then 60k.
Everyone was sure.
Everyone was wrong.
I had a 75k target. Price went to 60k.
Someone else had 60k. Maybe it goes to 50k. Or 30k. Or 250k by year end.
The truth?
Nobody knows.
No drama.
No prophecy.
Just reality.
A Simple, Honest Advice
If I had to give one clear piece of advice, it would be this:
Stop dreaming. Start trading.
Learn technical analysis.
Use proper money management.
Not because TA predicts the future like magic —
but because it gives structure.
Not because money management is exciting —
but because it keeps you alive.
A Story From Last Night (Funny… and painful)
Last night I was out with a friend in Old Town, Bucharest.
We were celebrating his sports betting ticket.
Odds? 486x.
He does this every weekend.
Small bets. Most lose.
Once in a while — one hits big.
Here’s the irony.
The same guy bought a crypto coin at the top in 2021.
Since then, he’s been DCA-ing into it non-stop.
Yesterday he told me he’s 60k down.
He’s not rich.
Not even close.
The irony writes itself.
“Investing” vs Reality
He believes he’s an investor.
But he doesn’t know how to draw a trendline.
The first time he ever saw his coin’s chart properly
was when I analyzed it for him — two years after he bought it.
He bought because of an influencer.
Now he keeps DCA-ing because of hope.
That’s not investing.
That’s anchoring to a mistake.
Psychologically, it’s not very different from betting —
just slower, and wrapped in nicer words.
The Lesson Everyone Misses
With betting, he knows it’s gambling.
With crypto, he believes it’s investing.
But labels don’t matter.
Behavior does.
If your decisions are based on:
influencers
hope
blind DCA
refusing to reassess
Then the line between gambling and trading is paper-thin.
The Market Owes You Nothing
Markets don’t care where you bought.
They don’t reward loyalty.
They don’t promise comebacks.
Some bad assets stay bad forever.
Some narratives never return.
Some “cycle recoveries” are just stories people tell to cope.
Harsh?
Maybe.
But expensive lessons are usually the honest ones.
The Real Choice
Every trader reaches a moment where they must choose:
Dreams
or
Decisions
Dreams feel better.
Decisions work better.
Final Thought
You don’t need to catch bottoms.
You don’t need 100x stories.
You don’t need altcoin season to save you.
You need:
structure
risk control
honesty with yourself
Stop dreaming.
Start trading.
Have a nice Sunday.
#Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #TradingMindset
$BTC $ASTER $GIGGLE

O Ethereum mostrou uma recuperação de curto prazo após a recente venda acentuada, mas o mercado ainda está frágil e depende fortemente dos níveis. O preço se moveu agressivamente e caiu para a área de 1.740, onde um forte interesse de compra entrou e empurrou o ETH de volta acima de 2.000. Essa reação claramente indica que a demanda existe em níveis mais baixos, o que impediu a continuação imediata para baixo.
Após o bounce, o ETH testou a zona de 2.120–2.125, mas não conseguiu sustentar e houve um pullback novamente. Agora, a ação do preço que está aparecendo em torno de 2.060–2.080 não mostra fraqueza, mas sim uma consolidação. O mercado está digerindo o movimento recente, não está revertendo. Os compradores ainda estão defendendo, mas o momentum diminuiu um pouco em comparação com o bounce inicial.

A grande venda agora parece completa.
A partir daqui, o Bitcoin pode entrar em uma longa fase de consolidação, possivelmente durando mais de 250 dias. No pior cenário, podemos ver um último movimento de liquidez na faixa de $45K–$55K.
Aqui está o porquê de eu ver desta forma:
Após a vitória de Trump na eleição, o BTC subiu agressivamente sem um reteste adequado. Ao mesmo tempo, fortes entradas de ETF elevaram os preços rapidamente. Recentemente, no entanto, os ETFs começaram a vender BTC$BTC — o que muitas vezes sinaliza a preparação para re-acumular em níveis mais baixos.$BTC