Crypto Talks

Right now most people think Bitcoin already bottomed at $60K.
And they are wrong.
That was likely just a local bottom, not the final cycle low.
Let’s break down what actually needs to happen before the real bottom forms.
LIQUIDITY: THE BIGGEST DRIVER
Every major crypto bottom in history has happened when U.S. liquidity starts expanding again. Right now the opposite is happening.
YoY liquidity growth in the U.S. is still negative. That means money is being drained out of the system, not added.
When liquidity is falling:
Crypto sells off first.
Stocks sell off too.
Risk assets stay weak.
We are seeing exactly that right now.
The liquidity being provided by the Fed is simply not enough compared to what markets need to turn bullish again.
This is also why:
- Corporate bankruptcies are rising.
- Consumers are defaulting on debt.
- Economic stress is building.
Until liquidity turns positive, a full market bottom is very unlikely.
MAYER MULTIPLE: NOT AT BOTTOM LEVELS YET
The Mayer Multiple shows whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold compared to its long-term average. At previous cycle bottoms, this metric dropped below 0.6 every time. Right now it is around 0.67.
That means: the market is oversold… but not at historical bottom extremes. So again, more like a temporary bottom, not the final one.
LONG TERM HOLDER REALIZED PRICE
This is one of the most reliable bottom indicators. It shows the average price where long term holders bought their Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin cycle bottoms form very close to this level. Right now this sits around $41K, and BTC is nowhere near it.
That gives us a very important clue:
The real bottom zone is likely somewhere near a long term holder cost basis.
MINING ELECTRICAL COST
Mining cost acts like a bear market floor. Currently, electrical production cost is around $57.5K.
But during bear phases, this cost usually drops 15–20%.
If that happens again:
Electrical cost falls to roughly $45K–$46K.
When multiple bottom indicators converge in the same zone, that zone becomes extremely important.
TECHNICAL + INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND ZONE
From a pure market structure perspective, the biggest demand area this cycle has been $45K to $50K.
Why this zone matters:
- ETFs were approved here.
- August 2024 crash bottom formed here.
- Institutions accumulated heavily here.
- Whale buying was strongest here.
This is the price range large players are most likely to defend.
THIS CYCLE IS NOT PLAYING OUT NORMALLY
There are major structural differences vs. past 4-year cycles: Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving (never happened before).
Post-halving Q4, usually bullish, was negative this time.
Bitcoin started dropping earlier than expected. Many altcoins topped before Bitcoin’s ATH.
This tells us one thing:
This cycle is front-running expectations. So the bottom timing may also come earlier than people expect.
SO WHEN COULD THE BOTTOM FORM?
Most people are waiting for a classic Q4 bottom. But based on the current structure, the bottom could form earlier. Estimated window → August to September
Markets tend to front-run consensus timelines. So both price and time could bottom sooner than the majority expects.
PSYCHOLOGY AT THE BOTTOM
If Bitcoin enters $45K–$48K, you’ll start hearing calls for $30K, $25K, and even $20K.
Just like in November 2022: When BTC hit $16K, people called for $10K... $8K... $5K.
None of those levels ever came. Markets trap both sides.
So here’s the full picture:
Liquidity hasn’t turned positive yet. Onchain bottom signals aren’t fully hit. Mining cost floor sits lower. Institutional demand sits lower. Cycle structure is front-running.
This means:
The $60K move was likely just a local bottom.
The real cycle bottom is more likely below the $50K zone, possibly forming late summer to early fall, when liquidity conditions finally improve.
That’s the window where the market will fully reset before the next major expansion phase.

Market Rally Triggered by Cooler Inflation Data

The crypto market is flashing green today as Bitcoin broke back above $70,000, Ethereum jumped 6%, and Solana surged 6.5%. The catalyst? US inflation dropped to 2.4% in January, below the 2.5% forecast.
This wasn't just a price move. It was a signal. The Federal Reserve's inflation target is 2%. We're now at 2.4% and falling. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 40% chance of a rate cut at the March meeting, and that probability keeps rising.
Historically, Fed rate cuts ignite explosive crypto rallies. This is the macro setup everyone's been waiting for.

$365M Short Squeeze Amplifies the Rally

The cooler than expected inflation print caught bearish traders completely off guard. According to Coinglass, $365.81 million in total liquidations hit the market in 24 hours. Of that, $202.30 million were short positions forced to close.
That's a classic short squeeze pushing prices even higher. Bitcoin stabilized above $70,000. Ethereum outperformed with a 6% jump. XRP posted a 5% gain. Total crypto market cap surged as investors reacted to favorable macro conditions.

Why This Matters for Presale Opportunities

Here's the part most traders miss. When Bitcoin doubles on rate cuts, large caps move slow. Presales move fast.
When BTC hit new highs in past cycles, early stage projects didn't just keep pace. They delivered 50x, 100x, sometimes more. The math works because you're entering at micro cap levels before institutional money floods the market.

Pepeto: Positioned Exactly Where SHIB Was in 2021

SHIB turned $1,000 into $1 million for early holders in 2021. That's 1,000x. Not theory. History.
The pattern repeating right now with Pepeto is identical: • Micro cap entry price ($0.000000183) • Growing community before listings (100K+ followers) • Presale filling fast during market uncertainty (70% already gone) • Early holders positioning before the crowd arrives
But here's why Pepeto could surpass SHIB's run. SHIB launched with zero utility and still hit $40 billion market cap. Pepeto is launching with working infrastructure, audited contracts, and confirmed Binance listing ahead.

The Infrastructure That Makes This Different

Pepeto is building the complete ecosystem where every meme coin will eventually trade:
PepetoSwap: Zero-fee trading for any meme coin, demo operational now Pepeto Bridge: Cross-chain liquidity routing solving fragmentation Pepeto Exchange: Verified token listings only, 850+ projects already queued
Every transaction across all three layers flows through $PEPETO automatically. That's not speculation about future utility. That's structural demand being built right now.

The Numbers Driving 100x Conversations

Over $7M raised fast during one of the worst market stretches in months. Smart contracts audited by SolidProof and Coinsult. Everything public and verifiable.
Staking at 214% APY means a $10,000 position generates $21,400 in tokens annually before public trading begins. Your stack compounds while macro conditions turn bullish and listings approach.
Here's the math that matters: Pepeto hitting 100x requires roughly $700M market cap. SHIB peaked at $40 billion. The target isn't speculative. It's conservative given the infrastructure being built.

The Macro Setup Is Perfect

Inflation cooling. Fed rate cuts coming. Bitcoin breaking resistance. And the best crypto presale opportunities are still available at micro cap entry pricing.
This is the setup that historically creates asymmetric outcomes. Large caps might double or triple. Early presales positioned correctly can 100x.
Pepeto at $0.000000183 with 70% of allocation already filled. Once inflation confirms the Fed pivot and Bitcoin continues the rally, this entry price becomes history.
The people asking "should I have bought earlier" are always the ones who waited one week too long.

O Bitcoin caiu abaixo de $67.000. O Ethereum caiu para menos de $2.000. As grandes moedas estão em baixa em todo o mercado.

Então, a pergunta é simples: é um bom momento para comprar cripto agora?

Aqui está como muitas pessoas veem isso:
• As grandes moedas podem se recuperar, mas como já são enormes, a alta geralmente é mais parecida com 2x–3x em um ciclo forte.
• Os movimentos maiores geralmente começam mais cedo, antes das listagens e manchetes.

É por isso que alguns compradores estão observando as pré-vendas novamente, e um projeto que está recebendo muita atenção é Pepeto (pepeto.io/).

O Bitcoin pode estar em queda em relação ao seu pico de $126K, mas os principais analistas não estão recuando.
A Bernstein recentemente reafirmou uma meta de $150.000 para BTC em 2026. As saídas de ETF permanecem modestas, e a infraestrutura de carteiras está evoluindo com integrações RGB e camadas de validação aprimoradas.
A fundação parece forte.
Mas traders experientes sabem de algo importante:

As grandes capitalizações raramente oferecem ganhos exponenciais uma vez que amadurecem.

É por isso que as pré-vendas em estágio inicial muitas vezes atraem atenção durante fases de consolidação.

A Posição da Pepeto em Fevereiro de 2026