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Surging U.S. tax refunds could save sinking markets
Crypto tax expert warns traders ahead of new IRS rule (4:05)
A wave of larger tax refunds is starting to land in U.S. bank accounts. Some strategists believe that cash could find its way into risk assets at a fragile moment for markets.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Feb. 13,
“The average tax refund is 22% higher so far this season.”
The larger refunds follow President Donald Trump signing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” into law in July 2025. 
The legislation extended and expanded several tax cuts, with the White House promoting the 2026 filing season as potentially the largest refund cycle in U.S. history 
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent adjusts his glasses during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and President of Argentina Javier Milei in the Cabinet Room at the White House on October 14, 2025
With equities and crypto both coming off sharp swings in early 2026, investors are watching whether that extra liquidity revives retail appetite.
Related: Rich Dad Poor Dad author says crashing markets do not scare him
Market remains volatile
The market has been bleeding lower for weeks.
The S&P 500 fell 0.54% over the last five days to 6,904.37 points at the time of writing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) also fell 0.7% during the same period and was trading at 49,835.72 points at press time.
The Nasdaq Composite slipped nearly 1% over the last five days, trading at 22,874.32 points at press time.
Crypto markets have also been under strain. As reported earlier, the total digital asset market capitalization has fallen from $3.1 trillion a month ago to about $2.3 trillion.
Bitcoin has shed more than 25% over the past month, while Ether has lost over 35% in the same period. Sentiment indicators such as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index have pointed to “extreme fear” in recent weeks.
But Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon believes the coming cash injection will reverse this trend by reigniting the "YOLO" or "you only live once" mentality.
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Refund cash could revive retail risk appetite
Wells Fargo, one of the largest U.S. banks, estimates that as much as $150 billion could flow into markets by the end of March as more than 60% of refunds are distributed.
Post by President Donald Trump on TruthSocial.
In a note cited by CNBC, Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon wrote:
"Speculation picks up with bigger savings… we expect YOLO to return.” He added, “Additional savings from tax returns, especially for the high-income consumer will flow back into equities and potentially into Bitcoin."
The strategist flagged Bitcoin and retail-favored stocks as potential beneficiaries if the extra cash is deployed into markets instead of being spent or saved.
Deutsche Bank has also pointed to seasonal flows. Its strategists said U.S. stocks could see roughly $11 billion in weekly inflows as refunds are paid out through mid-April, although they cautioned that broader risk sentiment remains fragile.
Related: Goldman Sachs’ Bitcoin holdings reveal 45% unrealized loss
Structural adoption versus short-term speculation
While refund-driven flows could lift prices in the near term, the longer-term direction will likely depend on institutional positioning and regulatory progress.
The passage of the GENIUS Act in June 2025 has formally integrated stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged 1:1 to the dollar, into the U.S. financial system, effectively turning the crypto market into a massive buyer of U.S. government debt. 
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which aims to define whether digital assets fall under the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is also moving through the Senate.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said on Feb. 17 that there is an “80% chance” the bill will be signed by the end of April.
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For markets, JPMorgan said in a recent report that it remains constructive on crypto for 2026, expecting: 
“Further rise in the digital asset flow but more led by institutional investors.”
The bank argued that clearer U.S. regulation and sustained institutional demand could help consolidate gains, even after the recent market drawdown.
For now, markets remain sensitive to macro data and policy signals. 
Softer January inflation has given the Federal Reserve some breathing room, but strong labor data has reduced expectations for imminent rate cuts.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,063 on Coingeko, down 0.60% on the day. The asset is off 2.44% over the past week and down 28.31% over the past month.
Related: Bank of America hikes stake in sinking crypto stock by 1,668%$BTC $XAU

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Just Hit a Level Historically Reserved for Generational Buying ...
The four red circles mark the most extreme negative readings of Bitcoin's short-term Sharpe Ratio (currently at -38.38), and each prior instance aligned almost perfectly with major cyclical price bottoms — 2015, 2019, and late 2022.
The current reading is now matching that same threshold.
The Sharpe Ratio measures risk-adjusted return. A deeply negative short-term reading doesn't simply mean poor performance, it means the asset is delivering maximum pain per unit of volatility. In other words, the drawdown is sharp, fast, and emotionally punishing. For most participants, this is the point of capitulation.
BTC is a structurally cyclical asset, driven by halving-induced supply shocks, liquidity cycles, and sentiment extremes. Historically, its deepest Sharpe troughs have not marked the beginning of prolonged bear markets, they have marked the exhaustion of selling pressure.
The arrows in the chart illustrate this clearly: each prior extreme negative reading was followed by violent recoveries to new highs.
From a probabilistic standpoint based on historical precedent, the risk-reward here is asymmetrically favorable for medium to long-term positioning. The downside appears largely priced into momentum indicators.
The key risk is a macro liquidity shock that could extend the trough. But historically, buying extreme Sharpe lows in BTC has been one of the highest-conviction setups the market offers.
Written by MorenoDV_$btc$Xau

#fogo #FOGOUSDT /ANÁLISE USDT
O Bitcoin está se consolidando dentro de um padrão de triângulo ascendente e atualmente está negociando acima da linha de tendência de suporte. A Nuvem Ichimoku está atuando como suporte.
Um rompimento ou queda confirmado é necessário para determinar o próximo movimento direcional.#BTC/USDT ANÁLISE
O Bitcoin está se consolidando dentro de um padrão de triângulo ascendente e atualmente está negociando acima da linha de tendência de suporte. A Nuvem Ichimoku está atuando como suporte.#BTC/USDT ANÁLISE
O Bitcoin está se consolidando dentro de um padrão de triângulo ascendente e atualmente está negociando acima da linha de tendência de suporte. A Nuvem Ichimoku está atuando como suporte.