The Cryptonomist

W miarę jak tradycyjne finanse przyspieszają swoje przejście na aktywa cyfrowe, rosnąca spekulacja dotycząca potencjalnego przejęcia BitGo przyciąga nową uwagę analityków z Wall Street.

Wall Street patrzy na BitGo jako na strategiczne przejście do kryptowalut

Analitycy z Wall Street twierdzą, że ekspansja BitGo w pełnozakresowe instytucjonalne finanse kryptograficzne może odblokować znaczny długoterminowy wzrost. Co więcej, wierzą, że firma jest coraz bardziej postrzegana jako główny kandydat do przejęcia przez duże banki i brokerów szukających szybkiego wejścia w aktywa cyfrowe.

Opierając się na istniejącym partnerstwie marketingowym, Nakamoto Inc. przekształca swoją pozycję w obszarze mediów Bitcoin, zarządzania aktywami i usług doradczych w ramach znaczącej transakcji całkowicie akcyjnej.

Szczegóły dotyczące przejęcia BTC Inc i UTXO

Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA) podpisało definitywne umowy fuzji w celu przejęcia BTC Inc, wiodącej grupy medialnej i eventowej zajmującej się Bitcoinem, oraz UTXO Management GP, LLC („UTXO”), firmy inwestycyjnej skoncentrowanej na prywatnych i publicznych firmach związanych z Bitcoinem. Razem, te umowy są określane jako Transakcja.

Duże instytucje finansowe przyspieszają eksperymenty z generatywną sztuczną inteligencją, a Goldman Sachs teraz wdraża platformę antropicznego Claude'a w kilku procesach back-office.

Goldman Sachs przenosi generatywną sztuczną inteligencję do zaplecza

Goldman Sachs planuje wdrożyć model Claude'a firmy Anthropic w księgowości handlowej i onboarding klientów, przedstawiając wdrożenie jako część szerszej inicjatywy wśród dużych banków, aby wykorzystać generatywną sztuczną inteligencję w celu uzyskania zysków efektywności. Wstępny nacisk kładziony jest na procesy operacyjne, które znajdują się w zapleczu i historycznie polegały na dużych zespołach zajmujących się przeglądem dokumentów, uzgadnianiem i kontrolą zgodności.

Po czterech kolejnych tygodniowych stratach, rynek koncentruje się na cenie Bitcoina dzisiaj, gdy handluje tuż poniżej kluczowych krótkoterminowych średnich i blisko delikatnej strefy wsparcia.

BTC/USDT — dzienny wykres z świecami, EMA20/EMA50 i wolumenem.

Dzienny wykres (D1): Główna tendencja – Niedźwiedzi, ale późno w ruchu

Struktura trendu: EMA

Dane:
– Cena (zamknięcie): $67,874
– EMA 20: $72,785
– EMA 50: $80,211
– EMA 200: $94,063
– Flaga reżimu: niedźwiedzia

Wszystkie kluczowe EMA są ułożone powyżej ceny spotowej i rozłożone niedźwiedzo (20 @ 50 @ 200, z ceną poniżej wszystkich z nich). To klasyczna, ustalona struktura trendu spadkowego, a nie początek jednego. Różnica między ceną spotową a krótką EMA (około $5k poniżej 20-dniowej) także pokazuje, że jesteśmy oddaleni od średniej.

After weeks of heavy downside, Ethereum crypto is showing early signs of seller fatigue even as the broader structure stays clearly bearish.

ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Market Thesis: Macro Still Down, But Pressure Is Easing

Ethereum crypto (ETHUSDT) is trading around $1,970, firmly below all key daily moving averages and well under the midline of its Bollinger Bands. The higher timeframe structure is clearly bearish: this is a market that has been sold hard and is still stuck in a downtrend.

But this is not fresh, impulsive downside anymore. Daily RSI has sunk into the low 30s, MACD is deeply negative but starting to curl, and the price is hovering around the daily pivot after a broad market pullback with Bitcoin dominance up at ~56% and the overall crypto market in Extreme Fear. The dominant force right now is defensive positioning: capital hiding in BTC and stablecoins, while ETH behaves like a risk asset in a risk-off environment. The key question for traders is whether this is the last leg of a medium-term downtrend or the early staging area for a larger base.

Daily Chart (D1) – Macro Bias: Bearish

Trend Structure: EMAs

Values
Price: $1,969.99
EMA 20: $2,201.06
EMA 50: $2,558.76
EMA 200: $3,055.96

What it means
ETH is trading well below its 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs. The shorter EMAs are stacked under the longer one, and the gap between price and the EMA cluster is wide. This is a textbook downtrend regime, with the 20-day acting as the first major dynamic resistance. Any bounce towards $2,200–$2,250 is, by default, a rally into resistance, not a confirmed trend reversal.

Momentum: RSI (14)

Value
RSI 14 (D1): 33.89

What it means
RSI is sitting in a bearish but not fully oversold zone. Sellers are clearly in control, but the market is not in full capitulation territory yet. This is the kind of reading where:

The downside trend is intact.

Each new low has slightly less momentum behind it.

Bounces can appear abruptly if shorts get crowded.

Put simply, the path of least resistance is still down, but the risk of a sharp counter-trend spike is rising.

Momentum & Trend Quality: MACD

Values
MACD line: -224.56
Signal line: -242.03
Histogram: +17.47

What it means
MACD is deeply negative, confirming prolonged bearish momentum. However, the line is now crossing up toward the signal, with the histogram turning positive. That is the first sign that the selling wave is losing strength, even though the trend is still down.

In trading terms, the bear trend is mature. Traders do not chase shorts blindly here; new shorts need either a clear breakdown or a weak bounce into resistance.

Volatility & Range: Bollinger Bands

Values
Mid (basis): $2,156.75
Upper band: $2,654.58
Lower band: $1,658.93
Price: $1,969.99

What it means
Price is sitting below the midline, in the lower half of the band structure, but not hugging the lower band. This points to a down-biased range rather than a full volatility squeeze or panic selloff. Sellers have the upper hand, but they are not pressing ETH to extremes on a daily basis.

As long as ETH stays trapped under the mid-band (around $2,150–2,200), rallies are suspect and more likely to be mean reversion toward resistance than a clean trend reversal.

Volatility & Risk: ATR (14)

Value
ATR 14 (D1): $154.67

What it means
Daily volatility is elevated but not explosive. A typical daily move of about $150 on a $1,970 asset is substantial, but not capitulation-level. This is the kind of tape where swings are meaningful and risk needs to be sized carefully. Entries can be right directionally but still get shaken out by normal noise.

Short-Term Reference Levels: Daily Pivot

Values
Pivot Point: $1,980.09
First Resistance (R1): $1,998.48
First Support (S1): $1,951.61

What it means
ETH is trading just below the daily pivot, in a narrow band between S1 and the pivot. That is classic indecision territory after a selloff: bears have the structural edge, but intraday pricing is balanced enough that either a push back to R1 or a slip toward S1 can happen quickly.

For intraday traders, losing S1 with momentum would confirm that the daily downtrend is reasserting itself. Regaining and holding above the pivot opens the door for a squeeze toward $2,000–2,050, still within a bearish context.

1-Hour Chart (H1) – Short-Term Still Heavy, But Not Collapsing

Trend Structure: EMAs

Values
Price: $1,970.04
EMA 20: $1,981.02
EMA 50: $1,990.59
EMA 200: $2,015.26

What it means
On the 1-hour chart, ETH is trading under all key EMAs, but the gap between price and the 20 and 50 EMAs is relatively small. The regime is still bent downward, yet the market is closer to a short-term equilibrium than to a waterfall.

In practice, this means rallies back into $1,985–2,000 are still sell zones for short-term traders unless price can reclaim and hold above the 200 EMA near $2,015.

Momentum: RSI (14)

Value
RSI 14 (H1): 44.03

What it means
Hourly RSI is in a neutral to mildly bearish area. Selling pressure has cooled off from any extreme. There is room in both directions intraday. ETH can easily push up toward the hourly EMAs before the next decision point, or roll over from here without any signal of exhaustion.

Momentum & Trend Quality: MACD

Values
MACD line: -3.45
Signal line: -1.76
Histogram: -1.69

What it means
On H1, MACD is slightly negative with a negative histogram, so bearish momentum persists but it is not aggressive. This supports the idea of a grinding, corrective tape rather than a fresh impulse down. Short sellers are in control, but they are not steamrolling the market right now.

Volatility & Range: Bollinger Bands

Values
Mid (basis): $1,983.67
Upper band: $2,004.67
Lower band: $1,962.67

What it means
Price is trading just under the mid-band, in the lower half of a fairly tight hourly range. That is consistent with short-term consolidation inside a downtrend. Breaks outside this band, particularly a close below around $1,960 or above about $2,005, would likely bring a pickup in momentum in that direction.

Volatility & Risk: ATR (14)

Value
ATR 14 (H1): $16

What it means
Typical hourly swings of about $16 show that intraday volatility is manageable but non-trivial. Traders cannot rely on ultra-tight stops unless they are willing to be shaken out by routine fluctuations.

Short-Term Reference Levels: Hourly Pivot

Values
Pivot Point: $1,968.94
First Resistance (R1): $1,973.60
First Support (S1): $1,965.38

What it means
ETH is trading almost exactly on top of the hourly pivot. That signals a very short-term balance after prior weakness. Control is up for grabs intraday. A move and hold above R1 favors a push into the $1,980–1,990 resistance belt, while a drop below S1 puts the $1,955–1,950 area in play.

15-Minute Chart (M15) – Execution Context Only

Trend Structure: EMAs

Values
Price: $1,970.04
EMA 20: $1,974.49
EMA 50: $1,979.88
EMA 200: $1,994.79

What it means
On M15, ETH is just below the fast EMAs, which are in turn below the 200 EMA. The microstructure is still bearish, but very close to short-term mean levels. For execution, that means:

A rejection from the 15-minute 20 and 50 EMAs (around $1,975–1,980) aligns with the broader downtrend and favors short entries.

A clean reclaim of the 200 EMA (near $1,995) would be the first sign of a more serious intraday squeeze.

Momentum: RSI (14)

Value
RSI 14 (M15): 41.87

What it means
Lower-timeframe RSI is modestly bearish, with plenty of room to move either way. It confirms that short-term selling is present but not extreme, which is a good setup for tactical trades inside the larger trend.

Momentum & Trend Quality: MACD

Values
MACD line: -4.30
Signal line: -4.14
Histogram: -0.16

What it means
M15 MACD is negative but nearly flat. Micro momentum is fading, which often precedes either a minor relief bounce or a volatility contraction before the next move. It does not give a strong directional edge on its own; context from the higher timeframes matters more.

Volatility & Range: Bollinger Bands

Values
Mid (basis): $1,975.31
Upper band: $1,988.04
Lower band: $1,962.58

What it means
ETH is sitting slightly below the mid-band on a reasonably tight 15-minute range. That is classic short-term consolidation. Breaks above $1,985 or below $1,963 on this timeframe will likely set the tone for the next few hours but will not, on their own, change the bigger daily picture.

Volatility & Risk: ATR (14)

Value
ATR 14 (M15): $6.33

What it means
Average 15-minute candles are moving about $6–7. That is enough to punish overleveraged, ultra-tight trades, especially around intraday pivots and EMAs.

Short-Term Reference Levels: 15-Minute Pivot

Values
Pivot Point: $1,970.51
First Resistance (R1): $1,971.14
First Support (S1): $1,969.41

What it means
Price is effectively glued to the 15-minute pivot, with R1 and S1 less than $2 away. This is micro-congestion, the kind of noise band where breakout attempts can quickly fake out. For entries, it is usually better to wait for a move away from this tight cluster.

Market & Sentiment Backdrop

Bitcoin dominance up at ~56.4%, total crypto market cap down about 0.8% in 24 hours, and a Fear & Greed Index at 10 (Extreme Fear) tell the same story: capital is defensive, and altcoins like ETH are not being favored. ETF flows into BTC and ETH have cooled, and volumes are down roughly 12% across the market. This environment tends to cap aggressive upside attempts in ETH unless there is a clear shift back into risk-on behavior.

Main Scenario Based on D1: Bearish Bias With Late-Stage Downtrend Dynamics

Putting it all together, the primary scenario is bearish on the daily timeframe:

Price is far below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs.

RSI is weak but not in full capitulation.

MACD is deeply negative yet starting to improve.

Price trades in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, with moderate but not extreme volatility.

Market-wide sentiment is deeply fearful and skewed toward BTC dominance.

This combination typically characterizes a mature downtrend. Sellers still have the structural advantage, but the risk of countertrend rallies is non-trivial, especially if shorts become overconfident or macro news improves.

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario – Short Squeeze & Mean Reversion

For the bullish path, think in terms of mean reversion inside a bearish regime, not an instant full reversal.

What bulls need to do

Defend the $1,950–1,930 zone (around D1 S1 and just above the lower Bollinger Band trajectory). Holding this area signals that sellers are running out of fuel on each dip.

Reclaim and hold above the daily pivot at around $1,980, then push through $2,000–2,020, where H1 resistance and the 1-hour 200 EMA sit.

Trigger a follow-through move toward the daily mid-Bollinger and EMA20 zone, roughly $2,150–2,250. That is the key mean-reversion target.

Indicator backdrop supporting a bullish bounce

Daily RSI in the low 30s with room to move higher if selling pauses.

Daily MACD histogram turning positive, hinting at fading downside momentum.

Price oscillating around intraday pivots instead of collapsing through them.

What would invalidate the bullish scenario

A decisive daily close below around $1,930–1,900 with expanding ATR and RSI breaking toward the 20s. That would indicate fresh selling rather than exhaustion.

Failure of any bounce to even test the EMA20 on D1, with repeated rejections below around $2,050, would signal that buyers have no real strength.

Bearish Scenario – Trend Resumption & New Lows

The base case, given the D1 regime, is still that rallies are selling opportunities until proven otherwise.

What bears want to see

Failure to reclaim the EMA20 on D1. As long as ETH remains pinned under roughly $2,200, the broader downtrend is intact.

Intraday bounces stalling near $1,985–2,020, where the 1-hour EMAs and hourly R1 zones cluster, followed by renewed selling.

A clean breakdown below $1,950 (D1 S1), opening the door toward the lower Bollinger Band region near $1,700–1,680 if volatility expands.

Indicator backdrop for a bearish continuation

Daily EMAs remaining steeply downward sloped with price failing to close above the 20-day.

RSI staying below 40 and rolling lower on each failed bounce.

MACD failing to complete a bullish cross and instead turning back down, with the histogram flipping negative again.

ATR starting to rise further as breakdowns occur, indicating stronger directional conviction.

What would invalidate the bearish scenario

A decisive daily close above the EMA20 (roughly $2,200+) with follow-through buying the next day.

RSI reclaiming and holding above 50, signaling a regime change from persistent weakness to balanced or bullish momentum.

MACD crossing bullish on D1 with a sustained positive histogram while price holds above prior resistance levels.

Positioning, Risk, and Uncertainty

This is not a fresh, clean short entry environment, nor is it a high-confidence bottom. It is a late-stage downtrend under macro pressure, with signs of seller fatigue but no confirmed reversal yet:

Directional bias: bearish on D1, mildly bearish on H1, and choppy on M15.

Upside moves are currently more likely to be countertrend rallies rather than the start of a new bull leg.

Downside breaks can still be sharp, especially in an Extreme Fear market that is heavily BTC-centric.

In this kind of environment, traders typically focus less on calling the exact bottom and more on respecting levels and volatility:

Daily EMAs, especially the 20-day around about $2,200, define whether ETH is just bouncing in a bear trend or transitioning toward a recovery.

Pivots and ATR on H1 and M15 define how much intraday noise a position has to endure.

Market-wide fear and BTC dominance tell you that Ethereum crypto is still playing second fiddle to Bitcoin in the current risk-off regime.

As long as ETHUSDT remains below its daily EMA20 and caught in the lower half of its Bollinger Bands, the burden of proof is firmly on the bulls. Any shift out of this structure, with convincing volume and a clear reclaim of key moving averages, would mark a new phase in the tape and warrant a reassessment of the bias.

The broader crypto market remains under pressure, and within this backdrop Monero price is trying to stage a counter-trend bounce against a still-dominant bearish structure.

XMR/USDT daily chart with EMA20, EMA50 and volume”
loading=”lazy” />XMR/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Monero price: where we stand now

Monero (XMRUSDT) is trading around $118.7, sitting below all the key daily moving averages and well under the midline of its Bollinger Bands. Structurally, this is still a bears-in-charge market on the daily chart, but with a clear attempt at a short-term rebound on intraday timeframes.

This moment matters because we are in a classic tension zone: the daily trend is down, yet the 1-hour and 15-minute charts show active buying pressure. In other words, Monero price is bouncing inside a broader downtrend. The dominant force for now is trend-following sellers on the daily, while shorter-term traders are probing for a bottom.

Add to this a crypto-wide backdrop of extreme fear (Fear & Greed at 10) and slightly negative total market cap over 24 hours, and you get a market more inclined to sell strength than to chase breakouts.

Primary bias from D1: Bearish. Any bullish idea has to be framed as a counter-trend move until the daily structure actually shifts.

Daily chart (D1) – primary trend and structure

Trend and moving averages (EMA20, EMA50, EMA200)

Price: $118.7

EMA20: $130.53

EMA50: $143.65

EMA200: $154.49

Regime: Bearish

Monero price is trading below all three EMAs, with a clear bearish stack (price < EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA200). That is textbook downtrend structure: rallies into the 20-day or 50-day zones are statistically more likely to be sold than to turn into full trend reversals.

Short take: Dips are not being bought aggressively enough to reclaim trend levels; the path of least resistance is still down until at least the 20-day EMA is reclaimed and held.

RSI (14)

RSI14 (D1): 38.32

RSI is below 50 but above 30, which lines up with a weak, but not yet oversold market. Sellers have control, but we are not at a capitulation extreme.

Interpretation: Downtrend with room to fall. There is space for further downside before a classic oversold bounce is forced. Any bounce from here is more likely positioning and short-covering than a clear signal that the trend has turned.

MACD

MACD line: -9.66

Signal line: -8.97

Histogram: -0.69

MACD is negative and the line is below its signal, with a modestly negative histogram. Momentum is bearish but not accelerating.

Interpretation: The strong sell momentum phase is behind us for now, but the market has not flipped to bullish. It is more of a grinding downtrend than a waterfall.

Bollinger Bands

Middle band (20-period): $133.10

Upper band: $173.11

Lower band: $93.10

Price vs mid: Price at $118.7 is below the middle band

Price is trading in the lower half of the band range but well above the lower band. Volatility is wide enough to allow big swings, but we are not hugging the lower band, which would signal sustained downside pressure.

Interpretation: XMR is weak within a broad volatility envelope. It has room to move both ways, but the positioning in the lower half keeps the bias pointed down unless price can re-attack the middle band around $133.

ATR (14) – Daily volatility

ATR14 (D1): $10.34

An ATR around $10 on a $118 asset implies daily ranges close to 8–9% of price are normal right now.

Interpretation: Volatility is elevated but not extreme. Moves of $10 up or down in a day are normal noise, so any levels you care about need some breathing room.

Daily pivot levels

Pivot (PP): $116.23

Resistance 1 (R1): $122.07

Support 1 (S1): $112.87

Price at $118.7 is trading above the daily pivot but below R1.

Interpretation: On the daily, XMR is trying to stabilize slightly above its short-term equilibrium at $116. A push through $122 and then toward the 20-day EMA near $130 would be the first sign that buyers are doing more than just defending support.

1-hour chart (H1) – intraday bias

On the 1-hour chart, the regime is marked as neutral, but the intraday structure is trying to turn up.

Trend and EMAs (H1)

Price: $118.7

EMA20: $115.86

EMA50: $118.31

EMA200: $122.02

Regime: Neutral

Price is trading above the 20-hour and very slightly above the 50-hour EMA, but still below the 200-hour.

Interpretation: Short-term, buyers have regained control of the last day or two, but the broader intraday trend, defined by the 200 EMA, is not yet broken. This is a counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend.

RSI (14, H1)

RSI14 (H1): 56.78

RSI above 50 shows intraday momentum on the buy side, but it is not stretched.

Interpretation: On the 1-hour, the market is leaning bullish but still balanced. There is room for further upside before overbought concerns kick in.

MACD (H1)

MACD line: -1.71

Signal line: -2.00

Histogram: 0.29

MACD is still below zero but has crossed above its signal, giving a positive histogram.

Interpretation: Momentum is recovering from a previously bearish phase. Buyers are stepping in, but they are still working from a negative-momentum base. It fits the idea of a relief rally, not a confirmed trend reversal.

Bollinger Bands (H1)

Middle band: $116.28

Upper band: $124.46

Lower band: $108.10

Price vs mid: Price at $118.7 is above the middle band

Price is hovering in the upper half of the band range and above the midline.

Interpretation: Intraday control is with buyers, but price is not yet testing the upper band. The 1-hour chart supports further upside attempts as long as XMR holds above the mid-band region, around $116–117.

ATR (14, H1) – Intraday volatility

ATR14 (H1): $3.77

Hourly ranges around $3–4 are common right now.

Interpretation: Intraday volatility is healthy but not chaotic. Moves from $118 to $122 or back to $115 can happen within a session without changing the bigger picture.

Hourly pivot levels

Pivot (PP): $117.40

Resistance 1 (R1): $120.90

Support 1 (S1): $115.20

With price at $118.7, XMR is above the intraday pivot and between PP and R1.

Interpretation: For short-term traders, the market is in a buy-the-dip mode above $117–115 on this timeframe, with $120.9 as the next obvious intraday test.

15-minute chart (M15) – execution and very short-term tone

The 15-minute chart is for timing, not for big-picture bias, but it adds useful color.

Trend and EMAs (M15)

Price: $118.7

EMA20: $114.02

EMA50: $114.50

EMA200: $118.12

Regime: Neutral

Price is trading above all three EMAs on the 15-minute, including the 200 EMA.

Interpretation: Very short-term, bulls have the upper hand. In this timeframe, any dip back toward the 200 EMA, around $118.1, is a decision point intraday traders will watch closely.

RSI (14, M15)

RSI14 (M15): 71.14

RSI is into overbought territory on the 15-minute chart.

Interpretation: The very short-term move is hot. That does not mean a macro top, but it does raise the risk of a local pullback or sideways digestion before any further leg higher intraday.

MACD (M15)

MACD line: 0.71

Signal line: 0.11

Histogram: 0.60

MACD is positive and above its signal, with a clearly positive histogram.

Interpretation: Short-term momentum is firmly bullish. Combined with the overbought RSI, this looks like a strong intraday push that may need a pause or small correction to reset.

Bollinger Bands (M15)

Middle band: $113.61

Upper band: $116.71

Lower band: $110.52

Price vs bands: Price at $118.7 is trading above the upper band

Price has pushed beyond the upper Bollinger Band on this timeframe.

Interpretation: The 15-minute chart is showing a short-term breakout or overextension. That often resolves either with a quick mean reversion back inside the band or a consolidation while the band catches up.

ATR (14, M15)

ATR14 (M15): $2.06

Interpretation: Swings of $2 within a few 15-minute candles are within normal noise, so tight stops can easily be whipsawed at these horizons.

15-minute pivot levels

Pivot (PP): $117.77

Resistance 1 (R1): $120.53

Support 1 (S1): $115.93

XMR is trading above the pivot and between PP and R1.

Interpretation: Very short-term bias is up, but with price already extended above the upper band, chasing near $118–119 carries poor immediate reward-to-risk unless you are targeting a quick move into the R1 region around $120.5.

Putting it together: where Monero price stands

We have a classic multi-timeframe conflict:

Daily (D1): Bearish trend, below all major EMAs, weak momentum but not oversold.

1-hour (H1): Neutral-to-bullish intraday, recovering momentum, price above short EMAs but below the 200 EMA.

15-minute (M15): Strong short-term bullish impulse, overbought and extended above the upper band.

In plain language, the bigger picture is still down, but we are in the middle of a bounce. Short-term traders are pushing Monero price higher inside a broader downtrend, in a macro environment defined by extreme fear and risk aversion.

Key scenarios for XMRUSDT

Bullish scenario (counter-trend for now)

For the bullish side to gain traction, the market needs to turn this intraday rebound into something more structural.

What bulls want to see:

Hold above $116–115 (H1 pivot and support zone). That keeps the 1-hour structure constructive.

A sustained push through $120.9 (H1 R1) and then a test of the H1 200 EMA around $122.

From there, the bigger test is the daily pivot or R1 confluence and especially the EMA20 near $130.5. Reclaiming and holding above the 20-day EMA would be the first serious sign of a trend repair on the daily.

If buyers manage to hold above the 20-day EMA after a breakout, the narrative shifts from a dead cat bounce toward potential base-building, with the next logical magnets near the daily Bollinger midline at $133 and then the EMA50 around $143–145.

What invalidates the bullish scenario:

A clean break back below $115 (H1 S1) that holds on a closing basis.

Daily RSI slipping back toward low-30s while price stays under the 20-day EMA, confirming that this rebound was just another selling opportunity.

If that happens, the bullish case reverts to just another bounce in a downtrend, and shorts regain the upper hand.

Bearish scenario (trend-following)

The bearish case aligns with the current daily regime and the macro environment of extreme fear.

What bears want to see:

Failure to sustain above the $120–122 area (H1 R1 and 200 EMA), followed by a roll-over of intraday momentum.

A drop back under the daily pivot at $116.23, turning it into resistance.

Continuation lower toward daily S1 at $112.87 and then a potential test deeper into the lower half of the daily Bollinger range, psychological zone $100–105, with the lower band down at $93.10.

With daily RSI at 38, there is still room for price to grind down toward that lower band zone before hitting an oversold wall.

What invalidates the bearish scenario:

XMR reclaiming and holding above the daily EMA20 ($130.5) for several sessions.

Daily RSI pushing back above 50 while MACD flattens and starts to rise, signaling a shift from controlled downtrend to neutral or early uptrend.

As long as price is pinned under the 20-day EMA and the daily regime remains bearish, sellers retain the structural advantage.

How to think about positioning, risk, and uncertainty

Context matters. The wider crypto market is under pressure, BTC dominance is high, and the sentiment gauge is flashing Extreme Fear. In this backdrop, Monero price rallies are more likely to be treated as liquidity to sell into rather than the start of a broad risk-on phase.

From a market-logic standpoint:

Trend traders will naturally side with the daily downtrend and look to fade strength into EMA20 and EMA50 zones.

Mean-reversion traders will focus on the intraday long side, but with tight expectations: they are riding a bounce, not a confirmed new bull market.

Volatility is high enough, with daily ATR above $10, that position sizing and stop placement matter more than usual. Being right on direction but wrong on size can still hurt.

The real risk here is overconfidence in either direction. The daily trend says do not fall in love with longs, while the intraday charts show that shorts entered too late can be squeezed by fast bounces like the one we see on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts.

In practical terms, the cleanest area of agreement across timeframes is the $115–122 band. How price behaves around that zone over the next couple of sessions will tell you whether this is just another blip in a downtrend or the start of something more constructive for Monero price.

Warunki rynkowe są kruche, ponieważ cena Solany handluje w późnej fazie trendu spadkowego z ekstremalnym strachem, rozciągniętym sentymentem i rosnącym zakresem dla ostrych ruchów przeciwnych do trendu.

Wykres dzienny SOL/USDT z EMA20, EMA50 i wolumenem”
ładowanie=”leniwe” />SOL/USDT — dzienny wykres z świecami, EMA20/EMA50 i wolumenem.

Główny scenariusz z dziennego wykresu: Niedźwiedzi nastawienie

Interwał dzienny (D1) ustawia ton, a tutaj przekaz jest prosty: główny reżim jest niedźwiedzi.

Zamknięcie dzienne: $85.01

Flaga reżimu: niedźwiedzi

Investor caution is growing across digital asset venues as the binance stablecoin trend highlights weakening crypto market liquidity and a shift away from risk.

Three straight months of negative stablecoin netflows

Binance has logged three consecutive months of negative stablecoin netflows, according to fresh CryptoQuant data, pointing to a sustained contraction in exchange liquidity. The current sequence is the longest comparable stretch since the 2023 downturn, suggesting market participants are increasingly reluctant to keep idle capital on centralized platforms.

Moreover, the outflow trend has accelerated. December recorded about $1.8 billion in net stablecoin withdrawals, while January saw nearly $2.9 billion leave the exchange, the data showed. That said, February has already approached roughly $3 billion in outflows, even though the month is only halfway through, signaling persistent caution.

From $50.9B to $41.8B in reserves

Binance’s overall stablecoin reserves have fallen sharply, dropping from approximately $50.9 billion in November to around $41.8 billion, a contraction of nearly $9 billion. However, this decline does not necessarily signal forced selling of crypto assets; instead, it points to capital exiting the exchange environment and moving to self-custody or traditional finance.

Stablecoins function as readily deployable dry powder for traders, allowing quick rotation into Bitcoin, altcoins or derivatives. When balances shrink on a venue of Binance’s scale, the exchange’s capacity for exchange volatility absorption falls, potentially amplifying price swings during sudden market moves or liquidations.

What negative netflows say about market sentiment

Market analysts typically interpret sustained stablecoin outflows from major exchanges as a sign that capital is leaving the centralized trading ecosystem rather than being recycled into other tokens. Moreover, this pattern can weaken crypto market liquidity, as fewer dollars are available on order books to meet aggressive buying or selling.

That said, some traders view lower exchange balances as a sign of increasing risk management, with investors preferring cold storage or off-exchange venues. In this context, detailed stablecoin netflows data helps distinguish between simple rotation among platforms and genuine capital flight from the sector.

Macro backdrop and defensive positioning

The stablecoin withdrawal trend is unfolding against a backdrop of elevated global uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. Market observers suggest these macro forces are encouraging crypto investor defensive positioning, with many choosing to hold cash or reduce leverage rather than chase short-term rallies.

Moreover, global geopolitical market uncertainty often pushes institutional and retail traders to reassess counterparty risk on centralized exchanges. As a result, consistent stablecoin outflows exchanges like Binance can become both a reflection of this caution and a mechanism that further tightens available on-chain liquidity.

Ongoing trend with no clear stabilization

According to the latest available figures from CryptoQuant, the pattern of negative netflows and shrinking reserves has persisted without clear signs of stabilization. While the primary_keyword binance stablecoin metrics remain under pressure, the coming months will show whether this is a temporary response to macro risk or a longer-term structural shift in how traders allocate capital.

In summary, Binance’s roughly $9 billion drawdown in stablecoin reserves since November, coupled with three straight months of accelerating net outflows, underscores a more cautious phase for digital asset markets, with thinner liquidity and reduced capacity to buffer sharp price volatility.

U.S. banks are being told the competitive dynamics around regulated stablecoins have shifted sharply since the GENIUS Act rewrote the ground rules in 2025.

Paxos challenges long-held banking assumptions

Paxos, the regulated blockchain and tokenization platform, has issued a blunt warning to traditional lenders: the old stablecoin playbook is obsolete. In a post shared on X, the company listed four common industry beliefs about stablecoins and argued that each one is now out of date.

The immediate catalyst is the GENIUS Act, signed into law by President Trump in July 2025. The legislation introduced clear federal rules for stablecoin issuance in the United States, reshaping how banks should think about this fast-growing market. Moreover, Paxos stressed that the opportunity set is already large.

“Stablecoins are already a multi-trillion-dollar market and banks that can accept them into their business stand to benefit greatly,” the firm stated, highlighting the potential revenue and efficiency upside for early adopters.

From unregulated perception to formal oversight

The first myth Paxos targets is the idea that stablecoins operate outside the regulatory perimeter. According to the company, that assumption no longer holds. Under the GENIUS Act, issuers must maintain 1:1 reserve backing with liquid assets such as U.S. Treasuries, provide monthly public disclosures, and obtain explicit approval to operate in the U.S. market.

Outside the United States, regulators have moved in a similar direction. Singapore’s MAS framework and the European Union’s MiCA rules establish comparable standards, creating a more consistent global stablecoin regulatory framework. Paxos said it already complies with these regimes, arguing that the robust oversight banks once claimed was missing is now firmly in place.

That said, the company implied that banks which cling to outdated assumptions about oversight risk misjudging both the risks and the upside of working with these digital instruments.

Do stablecoins really threaten bank deposits?

Banks have long feared that stablecoins might drain deposits and weaken their capacity to lend, but Paxos disputes this narrative. “Stablecoins serve as rails for payments, settlement and capital efficiency in ways that deposit accounts cannot,” the company stated, drawing a sharp line between traditional deposits and on-chain payment infrastructure.

Moreover, Paxos argued that lenders can choose to issue or custody stablecoins themselves, turning what they view as a competitive threat into a fresh line of products and services. The firm compared the current shift to the arrival of electronic payments, which initially alarmed banks but ultimately became a core part of their business models.

In Paxos’s view, stablecoins will follow a similar trajectory, moving from perceived disruption to embedded financial plumbing for both retail and institutional clients.

From crypto niche to global payments and markets

Stablecoins initially emerged as liquidity tools for crypto exchanges, facilitating rapid trading between tokens without touching fiat rails. However, Paxos stressed that this early chapter is now only a small part of the story. Global companies already rely on these assets to move millions of dollars in minutes across borders, bypassing slower legacy systems.

Use cases now span cross-border payments, on-chain capital markets, and tokenized asset settlement. Furthermore, Paxos highlighted that on-chain stablecoin transactions can be publicly audited in real time, offering a level of transparency that traditional payment networks typically cannot match.

The firm added that reserves held in short-term U.S. Treasuries are, in its view, “safer than many bank assets,” underlining its argument that the core backing of these digital dollars can be highly conservative.

Strategic risk for banks that choose to wait

Paxos closed its message with a clear warning for financial institutions that remain on the sidelines. The company said that banks willing to integrate regulated stablecoins into their operations could unlock faster settlement cycles, improved liquidity management, and entirely new product categories for clients.

However, it cautioned that institutions that continue to reject these instruments are likely to cede market share to fintech firms, blockchain-native platforms, and more forward-thinking banking peers. In other words, the risk for incumbents may now lie more in inaction than experimentation.

In summary, Paxos argues that the GENIUS Act and parallel global rules have transformed the landscape for stablecoins, moving them from a loosely governed crypto tool to a tightly defined financial infrastructure layer that banks can no longer afford to ignore.

On CryptoQuant, there is a metric called the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. 

This is an indicator that measures the momentum of Bitcoin’s bull/bear market cycle.

Technically, it is calculated as the difference between the P&L index and its 365-day moving average.

In turn, the P&L index of CryptoQuant uses the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR to create a single price valuation indicator for Bitcoin.

The P&L index measures whether the price of Bitcoin at a given moment is overvalued, neutral, or undervalued, while the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator assesses whether it is currently within a bull cycle or a bear cycle. 

The P&L Index

Until early October 2025, the P&L index of CryptoQuant was in positive territory. 

This is an index that has historically fluctuated between -3.2 points and +1.6 points, but throughout 2025 it never managed to rise above 1.2. 

During the previous bull runs, however, it had reached a peak above 1.6 points in November 2023, and one above 1.4 points in December 2017. 

In 2021, it had managed to briefly surpass 1.3 points, but throughout 2025, it never managed to exceed the 1 mark. 

Practically since March 2021, it hasn’t exceeded 1.2 points, which CryptoQuant considers the threshold beyond which it can be deemed overvalued. To be honest, this threshold seems set a bit too low, so much so that during 2025 it barely managed to surpass 0.9 points. 

It is worth noting, however, that in November 2022 it fell below -1.8 points, although the historical low was reached in 2015 at -3.2.

At the beginning of February this year, it dropped to -0.8, which is a low level but not extremely low, while now it is still in negative territory (-0.5) but, to be honest, not very low. According to CryptoQuant, therefore, the current price of BTC should not be considered undervalued. 

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator

The real news is that the current value of CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is at its lowest since the FTX bottom of 2022. 

In fact, the current level of the P&L index is below -0.5, while its 365-day moving average is approximately +0.4.

Since the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator measures the difference between the P&L index and its 365-day moving average, it is currently very low, below -0.9 points. In fact, on February 5th, it reached a local low of -1.2 points, aligning with the minimum peak recorded in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic.

To be honest, though, in 2022 the lowest point was reached at nearly -2 points, which is significantly lower than where it is now. However, not only had it never fallen below -0.8 since January 2023, but until November 2025, it had never dropped below -0.3.

Therefore, the current situation is not similar to that of November 2022, but it is still decidedly negative. In fact, it closely resembles the early months of 2022, before the May crash caused by the implosion of the Terra-Luna crypto ecosystem. 

The Forecasts

In theory, this indicator is not used for making predictions. 

However, the comparison with the past indeed suggests similarities with that 2022, which was the last year of a major bear-market for Bitcoin’s price. 

That said, from this perspective, 2025 does not seem at all similar to 2021.

In 2020, this index returned to positive in May, then surged in July, corrected slightly in September, and surged again in October. The peak was reached in January 2021, and it remained at high levels until April. 

It fell below zero in May, then climbed back above zero in October, and dropped below again in November. 

This time, however, during 2025, it was above zero for only a few months and never exceeded 0.3 points. 

Furthermore, it had already returned above zero in January 2023, remaining there uninterruptedly until August 2024. 

In other words, although the early months of 2026 resemble the early months of 2022, 2025 appears very different from 2021, just as 2024 was very different from 2020 and 2023 from 2019. 

This chart clearly shows us how it cannot be used to project past performance into the future, as it often ends up behaving differently. 

The bear market

What is certain, however, is that the price of Bitcoin is currently in a bear market. 

What remains entirely unclear is how long this bear-market will last, and how far the price will go. 

In the past, major bear markets have always lasted at least 12 months, but there’s no guarantee that history will repeat itself. Just as 2025 was different from 2021, and 2021 was different from 2017, there’s no reason to assume that 2026 will necessarily resemble 2022 or 2018. 

In fact, since 2023, the cycle seems to be progressing ahead of schedule, in some cases even by several months. 

In theory, therefore, it cannot be completely ruled out that in this February 2026 local lows similar to those of May or June 2022 may have been reached, even though in the second half of that year a further decline occurred.

Fundacja TON ogłosiła znaczącą współpracę z Banxa, firmą w grupie OSL, aby wprowadzić moc blockchaina TON i płatności stablecoin do tysięcy małych i średnich przedsiębiorstw (MŚP) w regionie Azji i Pacyfiku (APAC).

Ta inicjatywa oznacza decydujący krok w kierunku szerokiej adopcji rozwiązań płatniczych opartych na blockchainie w rzeczywistym świecie, szczególnie w jednym z najbardziej dynamicznych regionów dla handlu i innowacji cyfrowych.

TON, Banxa i OSL: Synergia dla cyfrowej transformacji

Nowy raport BVNK pokazuje, jak adopcja stablecoinów szybko ewoluuje z niszowego eksperymentu kryptograficznego w narzędzie do codziennych płatności używane na globalnych rynkach.

Stablecoiny przechodzą z narzędzia handlowego do codziennych pieniędzy

Zgodnie z Raportem o Użyteczności Stablecoinów BVNK, opublikowanym 17 lutego 2026 roku, stablecoiny są coraz częściej używane do praktycznych potrzeb finansowych, a nie do handlu spekulacyjnego. Badanie, przeprowadzone przez YouGov dla BVNK we współpracy z Coinbase i Artemis, objęło ponad 4600 wczesnych użytkowników i entuzjastów kryptowalut w 15 krajach.

Gdy tradycyjne rynki sygnalizują ostrzeżenia, najnowsze poglądy na strategię bitcoina Roberta Kiyosakiego i prywatność w płatnościach kryptograficznych przyciągają odnowioną uwagę inwestorów.

Zmienność rynku i wezwanie Kiyosakiego do krachu

Rynek kryptowalut pozostaje niezwykle zmienny, a cena Bitcoina ponownie nie zdołała przekroczyć progu 70 000 dolarów. Co więcej, kilku analityków twierdzi, że wiodące aktywo cyfrowe może napotkać dalsze spadki, mimo silnych wpływów instytucjonalnych odnotowanych w zeszłym roku.

Inwestorzy na nowo oceniają akcje metaplanet po tym, jak najnowsze wyniki wykazały rosnące przychody, ale ogromną stratę netto napędzaną kryptowalutami, która pogłębiła już stromy spadek ceny akcji.

Akcje Metaplanet pod presją, mimo krótkiego wzrostu po wynikach

Firma notowana w Tokio zauważyła, że akcje Metaplanet wzrosły o około 3% na wykresie dziennym po ostatnim ogłoszeniu wyników. Jednak ogólny trend pozostaje negatywny, a akcje wciąż spadły o około 37% w ciągu ostatniego miesiąca, co sygnalizuje ciągłą ostrożność inwestorów wobec jej bilansu z dużą ilością kryptowalut.

Po miesiącach przygotowań, działania na rzecz odzyskania Shiba Inu przeszły od planowania do realizacji z uruchomieniem systemu roszczeń SOU NFT na Ethereum.

System roszczeń SOU rusza na Ethereum

Zespół Shiba Inu aktywował swój długo omawiany framework odzyskiwania SOU, pozwalając użytkownikom dotkniętym eksploatacją mostu Shibarium na składanie roszczeń związanych z incydentem z ubiegłego roku. Co więcej, te roszczenia są wydawane jako przenośne, on-chain NFT na Ethereum, dając dotkniętym użytkownikom zarówno przejrzyste salda, jak i nowe opcje płynności.

Rynek wokół ceny kryptowaluty HBAR Hedera jest zablokowany blisko 0,10 USD, ponieważ szersze nastroje stają się defensywne, a zmienność kompresuje się w różnych ramach czasowych.

HBAR/USDT — dzienny wykres z świeczkami, EMA20/EMA50 i wolumenem.

Dzienny (D1): Neutralny Bias z strukturalnym obciążeniem

Trend & EMAs

Dane: Zakończenie 0,10 USD; EMA20 ≈ 0,10 USD; EMA50 ≈ 0,11 USD; EMA200 ≈ 0,15 USD.

Czytaj: Cena jest przyklejona do 20-dniowej EMA, ale nadal zdecydowanie poniżej 50- i 200-dniowych EMA. To nie jest aktywna niedźwiedzia dynamika, ale jest to efektem trendu spadkowego. HBAR próbuje ustabilizować się pod starszym, cięższym oporem. Jednak dopóki cena nie odzyska i nie utrzyma się powyżej 50-dniowej EMA (~0,11 USD), pozostaje to próbą odbicia w szerszej, uszkodzonej strukturze, a nie potwierdzonym nowym trendem wzrostowym.

European policymakers are stepping up efforts to defend monetary autonomy, with euro stablecoins increasingly seen as a central pillar of that strategy.

Bundesbank steps up support for euro-denominated stable assets

Germany’s central bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, has reinforced its backing for euro stablecoins as European authorities confront the growing dominance of dollar-linked digital tokens. Officials signaled that these instruments could help preserve eurozone monetary control while supporting innovation in payments.

The Bundesbank set out plans to advance the digital euro alongside strictly regulated private tokens. It argued that euro-based stable assets can boost cross-border payment efficiency and cut dependence on foreign payment networks. Consequently, policymakers framed these projects as components of a wider financial sovereignty agenda for the European Union.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel reiterated his support for both retail and wholesale central bank digital currency. He said a wholesale CBDC could enable programmable settlement in central bank money for financial institutions. Moreover, he linked privately issued euro-pegged tokens with stronger competitiveness in financial technology, clearing and settlement services across the bloc.

Nagel also highlighted ongoing exploratory work within the Eurosystem on wholesale CBDC architectures. Under these designs, banks and other financial institutions could process automated transactions in a secure and resilient environment. At the same time, he argued that well-regulated euro-based stable assets can offer cost-efficient payment and savings tools for companies and households.

ECB warns on dollar-linked dominance and policy transmission

The European Central Bank has raised the alarm over the expanding market share of dollar-backed stablecoins in global crypto markets. Officials cautioned that heavy reliance on such foreign-currency instruments may weaken the effectiveness of euro area monetary policy transmission. Therefore, they stressed the strategic value of domestically anchored solutions.

ECB representatives warned that what they described as digital dollarization could gradually erode financial autonomy in member states. They argued that a fully fledged digital euro CBDC initiative would bolster resilience in core payment infrastructure. In addition, they insisted that any privately issued euro-pegged tokens must be tightly integrated into the broader monetary and regulatory framework.

At the same time, the ECB underlined that unmanaged growth in dollar-pegged crypto assets might heighten currency substitution risks. This trend could complicate liquidity management for banks and central banks. However, officials suggested that a robust domestic framework for stable assets, including CBDC and compliant private tokens, could mitigate these challenges over the medium term.

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil urged faster coordination within Europe on financial and capital market integration. He argued that the European Union needs to move beyond narrow national priorities to reinforce its sovereignty and strategic autonomy. Furthermore, he described the current period as decisive for advancing shared financial infrastructure and deepening the single market.

Market projections point to rapid euro stablecoin growth

S&P Global Ratings has projected significant expansion for euro-denominated digital assets in the coming years. The credit rating agency estimated that the euro stablecoin market could scale to about €1.1 trillion by 2030 under favorable regulatory and adoption conditions. However, its baseline forecast remains more conservative, at roughly €570 billion by the same date.

S&P noted that euro-based tokens represented only around €650 million at the end of last year, highlighting how early the market still is. It added that potential growth could eventually represent more than four percent of overnight bank deposits in the euro area. Moreover, such a shift would mark a structural change in how savings and transactional balances are held across the region.

By contrast, U.S. dollar-pegged stable assets had reached an aggregate valuation of about $310 billion by late 2025. This scale underscores the current dominance of greenback-linked tokens and reinforces ECB concerns about overreliance on foreign currency instruments. That said, analysts argue that clear rules and credible public-sector backing could narrow this gap for euro-linked alternatives.

In the United States, lawmakers advanced federal oversight for digital assets after President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act in July 2025. The law marked a milestone for stablecoin supervision, although disagreements over detailed market structure rules have since slowed additional progress in Congress. Meanwhile, European authorities continue to present euro stablecoins as a cornerstone of long-term monetary and financial sovereignty, aligning them with the EU’s broader regulatory and integration agenda.

Overall, the combined push from the Bundesbank, the ECB and EU policymakers signals a clear direction: develop a digital euro, promote regulated euro-linked stable assets and curb excessive dependence on foreign currency tokens, in order to strengthen the euro area’s financial resilience and strategic autonomy.

Po trzech latach działalności zdecentralizowany protokół pożyczkowy zerolend zamknięcie podkreśla rosnące naciski na mniejsze wielołańcuchowe platformy DeFi.

ZeroLend potwierdza zamknięcie działalności pożyczkowej

Zdecentralizowany protokół pożyczkowy ZeroLend potwierdził, że zakończy działalność po trzech latach, wskazując na problemy ze zrównoważonym rozwojem oraz rosnące ryzyko operacyjne w jego wdrożonych sieciach. Zespół opisał ten krok jako „trudną decyzję”, mówiąc, że protokół nie jest już wykonalny w swojej obecnej strukturze i kontekście rynkowym.

Popyt instytucjonalny na towary oparte na blockchainie przyspiesza, a Wintermute stara się wykorzystać ten moment, koncentrując się bardziej na tokenizowanym złocie.

Wintermute uruchamia instytucjonalny handel OTC dla tokenów opartych na złocie

Twórca rynku kryptowalut Wintermute uruchomił instytucjonalny handel pozagiełdowy dla Pax Gold (PAXG) i Tether Gold (XAUT), dwóch największych tokenów opartych na złocie według kapitalizacji rynkowej. Firma ogłosiła rozszerzenie w poniedziałek, pozycjonując biuro dla profesjonalnych inwestorów poszukujących opartej na blockchainie ekspozycji na fizyczne złoto.

Wintermute rozszerza działalność na rynek tokenizowanego złota

Według doniesień medialnych, Wintermute wprowadził instytucjonalne usługi handlu pozagiełdowego dla tokenizowanego złota. Informacja ta ujrzała światło dzienne za pośrednictwem tweeta z oficjalnego konta Coin Bureau. Tweet wskazywał, że twórca rynku kryptowalut spodziewa się, że rynek tokenizowanego złota osiągnie wartość 15 miliardów dolarów w 2026 roku.

Tweet podkreślił wprowadzenie usługi instytucjonalnej na rynku handlowym. Usługa ta została określona jako handel OTC na poziomie instytucjonalnym. Niemniej jednak tweet nie dostarczył informacji na temat harmonogramów operacyjnych ani struktur produktów.