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Yili Hua perfectly portrays a very typical yet deadly trading psychology: first buying the dip and then getting washed out → feeling humiliation/missed opportunity → next time buying the dip turns into holding on for dear life.
The most dangerous point is: fear of missing out (FOMO) can turn buying the dip into a bottomless pit.
The bottom is not a point, but a process; the more you insist on "having a position near the lowest point," the easier it is to rationalize and keep adding during the decline, ultimately turning from buying the dip into catching falling knives— and falling knives often have no "last knife."
I also admit: his judgments on the bull and bear trends are often correct. But the most ironic thing in trading is: having the right view ≠ making money. Expressing a correct view with "holding on for dear life + large position + no invalidation point" essentially exchanges a probability advantage for a one-time gamble. The market is best at making you "theoretically correct," but your account goes to zero.
Buying the dip is not the original sin; unregulated buying the dip is. To truly survive bottom trading, at least three things are necessary:
1) Invalidation point: where I first back off if it breaks, not competing with the market;
2) Position rules: the first trade is always small (10–20%), add after structural confirmation;
3) Time stop loss: withdraw if it doesn't go as expected, don't waste your life on trends.
#ETHUSDT
The most dangerous point is: fear of missing out (FOMO) can turn buying the dip into a bottomless pit.
The bottom is not a point, but a process; the more you insist on "having a position near the lowest point," the easier it is to rationalize and keep adding during the decline, ultimately turning from buying the dip into catching falling knives— and falling knives often have no "last knife."
I also admit: his judgments on the bull and bear trends are often correct. But the most ironic thing in trading is: having the right view ≠ making money. Expressing a correct view with "holding on for dear life + large position + no invalidation point" essentially exchanges a probability advantage for a one-time gamble. The market is best at making you "theoretically correct," but your account goes to zero.
Buying the dip is not the original sin; unregulated buying the dip is. To truly survive bottom trading, at least three things are necessary:
1) Invalidation point: where I first back off if it breaks, not competing with the market;
2) Position rules: the first trade is always small (10–20%), add after structural confirmation;
3) Time stop loss: withdraw if it doesn't go as expected, don't waste your life on trends.
#ETHUSDT
The Story of Two Farmers and the Snake
This time returning home to meet old friends, I heard two real-life versions of 'The Farmer and the Snake', which were more exciting than the script.
Story One: Brother A and 'Old A'
Brother A is a big player in foreign trade. Back in the day, he was soft-hearted and, seeing a once little brother crying about not being able to put food on the table, gave him some connections and resources. This was a mistake; the little brother, leveraging Brother A's influence, made 50 million in one go.
By rights, shouldn't this be like a rebirth of parents? No.
Once the money was in hand, the back straightened, and the face changed. At the wine gathering, the former 'Big Brother' no longer called, and publicly lightly shouted 'Old A', with words that seemed to be laced with jabs to step on him a couple of times, as if only by belittling Brother A could it prove that this 50 million was all due to his own ability.
Story One: Brother A and 'Old A'
Brother A is a big player in foreign trade. Back in the day, he was soft-hearted and, seeing a once little brother crying about not being able to put food on the table, gave him some connections and resources. This was a mistake; the little brother, leveraging Brother A's influence, made 50 million in one go.
By rights, shouldn't this be like a rebirth of parents? No.
Once the money was in hand, the back straightened, and the face changed. At the wine gathering, the former 'Big Brother' no longer called, and publicly lightly shouted 'Old A', with words that seemed to be laced with jabs to step on him a couple of times, as if only by belittling Brother A could it prove that this 50 million was all due to his own ability.
📈 What are OI & CVD? How to use them to judge trends?
To see what the main players are doing, just looking at the candlestick chart is not enough; you need to look at:
🔹 OI (Open Interest) = Number of Outstanding Contracts
Represents the total number of long and short contracts that have not been settled in the current market.
OI ↑ → Someone is "opening new positions" to enter the market
OI ↓ → Someone is "closing old positions" to exit the market
🔸 CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) = Active Buy - Active Sell Cumulative Value
Shows "who is driving the market": Are bulls chasing prices or are bears pushing them down?
CVD ↑ → Bulls are actively buying
CVD ↓ → Bears are actively selling
💡 How to use OI + CVD to judge trends?
Interpretation of OI direction and CVD direction ↑↑ Bulls are adding positions, healthy rise ✅ ↑↓ Bears are adding positions, dominating decline ✅ ↓↑ Bears are closing positions, possible rebound ⚠️↓↓ Bulls are retreating, be cautious of a drop ❌
📌 Trading Tips:
Trending Market: OI & CVD in the same direction resonating, taking positions with the trend is the safest
Sideways Market: Pay attention to CVD divergence, it can identify false bullish/bearish signals in advance
Don’t just look at prices, see "who is putting in the effort", and you won't be fooled
To see what the main players are doing, just looking at the candlestick chart is not enough; you need to look at:
🔹 OI (Open Interest) = Number of Outstanding Contracts
Represents the total number of long and short contracts that have not been settled in the current market.
OI ↑ → Someone is "opening new positions" to enter the market
OI ↓ → Someone is "closing old positions" to exit the market
🔸 CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) = Active Buy - Active Sell Cumulative Value
Shows "who is driving the market": Are bulls chasing prices or are bears pushing them down?
CVD ↑ → Bulls are actively buying
CVD ↓ → Bears are actively selling
💡 How to use OI + CVD to judge trends?
Interpretation of OI direction and CVD direction ↑↑ Bulls are adding positions, healthy rise ✅ ↑↓ Bears are adding positions, dominating decline ✅ ↓↑ Bears are closing positions, possible rebound ⚠️↓↓ Bulls are retreating, be cautious of a drop ❌
📌 Trading Tips:
Trending Market: OI & CVD in the same direction resonating, taking positions with the trend is the safest
Sideways Market: Pay attention to CVD divergence, it can identify false bullish/bearish signals in advance
Don’t just look at prices, see "who is putting in the effort", and you won't be fooled
If you need the full English interview transcript, please leave your email.
BNB Super Cycle Interview Summary｜A Tribute Long Article for CZ
CZ's interview with Trust Wallet on October 8th could be one of the most important speeches of the second half of the year. Unfortunately, the entire interview was in English, and I haven't seen anyone introduce this important interview in Chinese. I listened to the entire interview and made a summary to share with everyone. Here are my feelings.
I finished listening to CZ's interview on Twitter Space in full.
It was not just a discussion about cryptocurrency, but a class on 'faith, long-termism, and the spirit of building.'
🌿 After listening, my first feeling is—sincere and honest.
I finished listening to CZ's interview on Twitter Space in full.
It was not just a discussion about cryptocurrency, but a class on 'faith, long-termism, and the spirit of building.'
🌿 After listening, my first feeling is—sincere and honest.
BNB Super Cycle Interview Summary｜A Tribute Long Article for CZ
CZ's interview with Trust Wallet on October 8th could be one of the most important speeches of the second half of the year. Unfortunately, the entire interview was in English, and I haven't seen anyone introduce this important interview in Chinese. I listened to the entire interview and made a summary to share with everyone. Here are my feelings.
I finished listening to CZ's interview on Twitter Space in full.
It was not just a discussion about cryptocurrency, but a class on 'faith, long-termism, and the spirit of building.'
🌿 After listening, my first feeling is—sincere and honest.
I finished listening to CZ's interview on Twitter Space in full.
It was not just a discussion about cryptocurrency, but a class on 'faith, long-termism, and the spirit of building.'
🌿 After listening, my first feeling is—sincere and honest.
📊 Federal Reserve's Latest Forecast & Impact on BTC
The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecast (SEP) reveals the macro path for the coming years. Let's break it down item by item and see what it means for Bitcoin.
1️⃣ Economic Growth
GDP: 2025 = 1.6%, 2027 = 1.9%, stabilizing long-term at 1.8%.
👉 A new normal of low growth.
🔗 Impact on BTC:
Low growth + Stable employment = No urgent need for further monetary tightening. In the long term, this mild environment is beneficial for risk assets (BTC is a high β asset).
2️⃣ Unemployment Rate
From 4.5% in 2025 → 4.2% in 2028, returning to the natural unemployment rate.
👉 The Federal Reserve believes in a soft landing.
🔗 Impact on BTC:
If employment is stable and market concerns about a “hard landing” ease, investors will be more willing to allocate to risk assets, including BTC.
3️⃣ Inflation
PCE Inflation: 2025 = 3.0%, 2026 ~ 2.6%, 2027 back to 2.0%.
👉 Inflationary pressures gradually easing.
🔗 Impact on BTC:
In the short term, high interest rates will suppress liquidity, which is unfavorable for BTC.
But when inflation falls → interest rates have room to decrease → capital re-enters the market, BTC may welcome a new liquidity-driven rally.
4️⃣ Interest Rates
2025 = 3.6%, 2028 = 3.1%, long-term = 3.0%.
👉 The Federal Reserve expects to gradually lower interest rates in the coming years.
🔗 Impact on BTC:
Rate-cutting cycles are usually favorable for BTC:
Increased liquidity
Declining U.S. Treasury yields, capital seeking alternative assets
Increased risk appetite → High-risk assets (tech stocks & BTC) benefit
🧩 Comprehensive Impact
Short-term: High interest rates still suppress BTC, with significant volatility and more cautious capital.
Mid-term: If inflation declines is confirmed in 2025-2026, the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates → liquidity returns → BTC receives strong support.
Long-term: BTC is increasingly seen as a “hedging tool for liquidity cycles,” often performing exceptionally well when macro policies shift to easing.
📌 Conclusion
The Federal Reserve's baseline forecast is low growth, stable employment, falling inflation, and declining interest rates.
For BTC, this means:
👉 Cautious in the short term, moderately bullish in the medium to long term.
The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecast (SEP) reveals the macro path for the coming years. Let's break it down item by item and see what it means for Bitcoin.
1️⃣ Economic Growth
GDP: 2025 = 1.6%, 2027 = 1.9%, stabilizing long-term at 1.8%.
👉 A new normal of low growth.
🔗 Impact on BTC:
Low growth + Stable employment = No urgent need for further monetary tightening. In the long term, this mild environment is beneficial for risk assets (BTC is a high β asset).
2️⃣ Unemployment Rate
From 4.5% in 2025 → 4.2% in 2028, returning to the natural unemployment rate.
👉 The Federal Reserve believes in a soft landing.
🔗 Impact on BTC:
If employment is stable and market concerns about a “hard landing” ease, investors will be more willing to allocate to risk assets, including BTC.
3️⃣ Inflation
PCE Inflation: 2025 = 3.0%, 2026 ~ 2.6%, 2027 back to 2.0%.
👉 Inflationary pressures gradually easing.
🔗 Impact on BTC:
In the short term, high interest rates will suppress liquidity, which is unfavorable for BTC.
But when inflation falls → interest rates have room to decrease → capital re-enters the market, BTC may welcome a new liquidity-driven rally.
4️⃣ Interest Rates
2025 = 3.6%, 2028 = 3.1%, long-term = 3.0%.
👉 The Federal Reserve expects to gradually lower interest rates in the coming years.
🔗 Impact on BTC:
Rate-cutting cycles are usually favorable for BTC:
Increased liquidity
Declining U.S. Treasury yields, capital seeking alternative assets
Increased risk appetite → High-risk assets (tech stocks & BTC) benefit
🧩 Comprehensive Impact
Short-term: High interest rates still suppress BTC, with significant volatility and more cautious capital.
Mid-term: If inflation declines is confirmed in 2025-2026, the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates → liquidity returns → BTC receives strong support.
Long-term: BTC is increasingly seen as a “hedging tool for liquidity cycles,” often performing exceptionally well when macro policies shift to easing.
📌 Conclusion
The Federal Reserve's baseline forecast is low growth, stable employment, falling inflation, and declining interest rates.
For BTC, this means:
👉 Cautious in the short term, moderately bullish in the medium to long term.
$VELVET #MEME币狂欢 #交易训练
Today, let's talk about the skills of short-term trading. 1 In the chart, ABCD are the key nodes to observe during trading.
A: Bullish arrangement, upward trend, only buy, do not short
B: Reversal drop, intense long and short, only observe
C: Break support, unable to predict, continue to observe
D: Weak buying pressure, this point can enter short position
Summary: When doing short-term trading, 3 minutes, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes are quite critical. When a node for entry is found, decisively enter with a stop loss. Key point: Choose cryptocurrencies with consistent trends! Do not choose cryptocurrencies that have continuous sharp rises or falls!
Today, let's talk about the skills of short-term trading. 1 In the chart, ABCD are the key nodes to observe during trading.
A: Bullish arrangement, upward trend, only buy, do not short
B: Reversal drop, intense long and short, only observe
C: Break support, unable to predict, continue to observe
D: Weak buying pressure, this point can enter short position
Summary: When doing short-term trading, 3 minutes, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes are quite critical. When a node for entry is found, decisively enter with a stop loss. Key point: Choose cryptocurrencies with consistent trends! Do not choose cryptocurrencies that have continuous sharp rises or falls!
📊 How to trade using Open Interest (OI)?
Many people focus on price but ignore OI — it is actually an important indicator for observing market bullish and bearish forces.
---
🔎 OI Basics
OI = Total number of open contracts.
It can tell us:
If funds are entering or exiting
Changes in bullish and bearish sentiment
Potential breakout points in the market
---
📈 4 Relationships Between OI and Price
1️⃣ Price rises + OI increases → Bulls enter, trend continuation likely
2️⃣ Price falls + OI increases → Bears enter, decline may accelerate
3️⃣ Price rises + OI decreases → Bears close positions, common "short squeeze"
4️⃣ Price falls + OI decreases → Bulls close positions, common "long squeeze"
---
🛠️ Practical Applications
Confirm trend: Breakout + OI increases → New funds follow in, trend more credible
Identify false breakouts: Surge but OI does not increase → High risk of trapping longs
Capture liquidation points: Sharp price drop + OI decreases → Bulls liquidate, causing sell-off
---
⚡ Summary
OI cannot be used alone; it is best combined with trading volume & funding rates.
By effectively utilizing OI, you can see clearly: Is this a trend opportunity or a "false move to cut the leeks."
Many people focus on price but ignore OI — it is actually an important indicator for observing market bullish and bearish forces.
---
🔎 OI Basics
OI = Total number of open contracts.
It can tell us:
If funds are entering or exiting
Changes in bullish and bearish sentiment
Potential breakout points in the market
---
📈 4 Relationships Between OI and Price
1️⃣ Price rises + OI increases → Bulls enter, trend continuation likely
2️⃣ Price falls + OI increases → Bears enter, decline may accelerate
3️⃣ Price rises + OI decreases → Bears close positions, common "short squeeze"
4️⃣ Price falls + OI decreases → Bulls close positions, common "long squeeze"
---
🛠️ Practical Applications
Confirm trend: Breakout + OI increases → New funds follow in, trend more credible
Identify false breakouts: Surge but OI does not increase → High risk of trapping longs
Capture liquidation points: Sharp price drop + OI decreases → Bulls liquidate, causing sell-off
---
⚡ Summary
OI cannot be used alone; it is best combined with trading volume & funding rates.
By effectively utilizing OI, you can see clearly: Is this a trend opportunity or a "false move to cut the leeks."
How to take advantage of patterns to enter at a high profit-loss ratio?
This morning, I observed the K-line trend, and when I noticed signs of a reversal and several indicators provided key signals, I entered the market immediately and achieved extremely high returns within three hours.
This morning, I observed the K-line trend, and when I noticed signs of a reversal and several indicators provided key signals, I entered the market immediately and achieved extremely high returns within three hours.
There are many counterfeit phones, seize the opportunity during the pullback to make a big move.
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