📊 Federal Reserve's Latest Forecast & Impact on BTC

The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecast (SEP) reveals the macro path for the coming years. Let's break it down item by item and see what it means for Bitcoin.

1️⃣ Economic Growth

GDP: 2025 = 1.6%, 2027 = 1.9%, stabilizing long-term at 1.8%.

👉 A new normal of low growth.

🔗 Impact on BTC:

Low growth + Stable employment = No urgent need for further monetary tightening. In the long term, this mild environment is beneficial for risk assets (BTC is a high β asset).

2️⃣ Unemployment Rate

From 4.5% in 2025 → 4.2% in 2028, returning to the natural unemployment rate.

👉 The Federal Reserve believes in a soft landing.

🔗 Impact on BTC:

If employment is stable and market concerns about a “hard landing” ease, investors will be more willing to allocate to risk assets, including BTC.

3️⃣ Inflation

PCE Inflation: 2025 = 3.0%, 2026 ~ 2.6%, 2027 back to 2.0%.

👉 Inflationary pressures gradually easing.

🔗 Impact on BTC:

In the short term, high interest rates will suppress liquidity, which is unfavorable for BTC.

But when inflation falls → interest rates have room to decrease → capital re-enters the market, BTC may welcome a new liquidity-driven rally.

4️⃣ Interest Rates

2025 = 3.6%, 2028 = 3.1%, long-term = 3.0%.

👉 The Federal Reserve expects to gradually lower interest rates in the coming years.

🔗 Impact on BTC:

Rate-cutting cycles are usually favorable for BTC:

Increased liquidity

Declining U.S. Treasury yields, capital seeking alternative assets

Increased risk appetite → High-risk assets (tech stocks & BTC) benefit

🧩 Comprehensive Impact

Short-term: High interest rates still suppress BTC, with significant volatility and more cautious capital.

Mid-term: If inflation declines is confirmed in 2025-2026, the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates → liquidity returns → BTC receives strong support.

Long-term: BTC is increasingly seen as a “hedging tool for liquidity cycles,” often performing exceptionally well when macro policies shift to easing.

📌 Conclusion

The Federal Reserve's baseline forecast is low growth, stable employment, falling inflation, and declining interest rates.

For BTC, this means:

👉 Cautious in the short term, moderately bullish in the medium to long term.