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News Hot List (24h)
1. U.S. media: Treasury Secretary agrees to Senate investigation of Powell in exchange for the release of the new Federal Reserve chair nomination
According to reports from Jinshi Data, U.S. financial media Semafor cited sources stating that on Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen agreed during a closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans to a suggestion from some lawmakers that the Senate Banking Committee should investigate Federal Reserve Chairman Powell instead of the Justice Department. A knowledgeable lawmaker revealed that this move aims to test whether North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis would lift his hold on the Federal Reserve nominee. The lawmaker stated, "They want to use this condition to test Thom, and his reaction was expressionless." Sources indicated that this could become a compromise solution. A Republican Congressman stated that the Banking Committee's investigation could satisfy the President's desire for an investigation, but another lawmaker expressed doubt about whether Thom would accept, saying it would be surprising if he did.
According to reports from Jinshi Data, U.S. financial media Semafor cited sources stating that on Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen agreed during a closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans to a suggestion from some lawmakers that the Senate Banking Committee should investigate Federal Reserve Chairman Powell instead of the Justice Department. A knowledgeable lawmaker revealed that this move aims to test whether North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis would lift his hold on the Federal Reserve nominee. The lawmaker stated, "They want to use this condition to test Thom, and his reaction was expressionless." Sources indicated that this could become a compromise solution. A Republican Congressman stated that the Banking Committee's investigation could satisfy the President's desire for an investigation, but another lawmaker expressed doubt about whether Thom would accept, saying it would be surprising if he did.
Bitcoin briefly dropped over 4%, with 3.2 billion yuan evaporating from the entire cryptocurrency network in 24 hours! What happened?
On February 11, the cryptocurrency market faced another sell-off, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $66,000 mark, dropping over 4%. As of February 12, Bitcoin has slightly rebounded, trading at $67,386.5700.
According to CoinGlass data statistics, in the last 24 hours, a total of 148859 people worldwide have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 467 million US dollars (approximately 3.2 billion yuan).
Listed companies that once viewed Bitcoin as a reserve asset have also faced pressure on their stock prices due to the sharp decline in cryptocurrency assets. Coupled with increasing financial pressure, these companies have slowed down their pace of Bitcoin purchases.
According to CoinGlass data statistics, in the last 24 hours, a total of 148859 people worldwide have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 467 million US dollars (approximately 3.2 billion yuan).
Listed companies that once viewed Bitcoin as a reserve asset have also faced pressure on their stock prices due to the sharp decline in cryptocurrency assets. Coupled with increasing financial pressure, these companies have slowed down their pace of Bitcoin purchases.
After Bitcoin's Plunge, Cryptocurrency Billionaire Plans to Buy the Dip
As an early adopter of cryptocurrency, Val Vavilov built Bitfury into one of the largest companies in the industry over 15 years by designing Bitcoin mining hardware.
The 46-year-old Latvian billionaire has recently shifted his business focus towards artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. Now, he says that the latest round of cryptocurrency crashes presents an opportunity to buy again.
"For us, the drop in Bitcoin is an opportunity to rebalance our portfolio and buy a certain amount of Bitcoin at a low price," he stated on WhatsApp, but did not disclose specific investment amounts or quantities to buy.
Last week's crash in the cryptocurrency market caused Bitcoin to fall over 50% from its October peak, severely impacting retail investors and shaking long-term bulls. Although data shows that cryptocurrency whales are buying back in, Bitcoin still fell below $67,000 during Wednesday's Asian trading session, reaching its lowest level since the sell-off began last Friday.
Industry leaders maintaining a bullish stance during the severe sell-off of cryptocurrencies has become the norm. According to data from Strategy Inc.'s official website, Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. has purchased over $7 billion in Bitcoin since the crash on October 10. He has also been encouraging others to buy in.
"We believe in Bitcoin and its growth, and we will allocate part of our assets to Bitcoin, but it is just one component of our portfolio," he stated, noting that his company has long diversified its business into AI and other fields.
The diversified layout has allowed Vavilov to weather the most challenging period of this round of sell-offs. According to the Billionaire Index, his current net worth is $1.1 billion. #何时抄底 #比特币走势分析 #比特币预测
As an early adopter of cryptocurrency, Val Vavilov built Bitfury into one of the largest companies in the industry over 15 years by designing Bitcoin mining hardware.
The 46-year-old Latvian billionaire has recently shifted his business focus towards artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. Now, he says that the latest round of cryptocurrency crashes presents an opportunity to buy again.
"For us, the drop in Bitcoin is an opportunity to rebalance our portfolio and buy a certain amount of Bitcoin at a low price," he stated on WhatsApp, but did not disclose specific investment amounts or quantities to buy.
Last week's crash in the cryptocurrency market caused Bitcoin to fall over 50% from its October peak, severely impacting retail investors and shaking long-term bulls. Although data shows that cryptocurrency whales are buying back in, Bitcoin still fell below $67,000 during Wednesday's Asian trading session, reaching its lowest level since the sell-off began last Friday.
Industry leaders maintaining a bullish stance during the severe sell-off of cryptocurrencies has become the norm. According to data from Strategy Inc.'s official website, Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. has purchased over $7 billion in Bitcoin since the crash on October 10. He has also been encouraging others to buy in.
"We believe in Bitcoin and its growth, and we will allocate part of our assets to Bitcoin, but it is just one component of our portfolio," he stated, noting that his company has long diversified its business into AI and other fields.
The diversified layout has allowed Vavilov to weather the most challenging period of this round of sell-offs. According to the Billionaire Index, his current net worth is $1.1 billion. #何时抄底 #比特币走势分析 #比特币预测
Gray scale: Bitcoin's current trading performance resembles that of high-growth tech stocks more than gold.
According to Grayscale's latest report, Bitcoin's current trading performance resembles that of high-growth tech stocks rather than gold. The report notes that Bitcoin's recent price movements are highly correlated with the stocks of overvalued software companies, and when the market sells off risk assets, Bitcoin also declines. Grayscale's research director, Zach Pandl, believes this indicates that Bitcoin is currently not a safe-haven asset, but given its limited supply and decentralized characteristics, it still has the potential to become 'digital gold' in the long run. Bitcoin is only 17 years old and is still proving its status as a global currency asset. #美国科技基金净流 #黄金白银反弹 #何时抄底？ #全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产
According to Grayscale's latest report, Bitcoin's current trading performance resembles that of high-growth tech stocks rather than gold. The report notes that Bitcoin's recent price movements are highly correlated with the stocks of overvalued software companies, and when the market sells off risk assets, Bitcoin also declines. Grayscale's research director, Zach Pandl, believes this indicates that Bitcoin is currently not a safe-haven asset, but given its limited supply and decentralized characteristics, it still has the potential to become 'digital gold' in the long run. Bitcoin is only 17 years old and is still proving its status as a global currency asset. #美国科技基金净流 #黄金白银反弹 #何时抄底？ #全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产
After the Panic, the Market May Be 'Bottoming Out'
According to research from the analysis agency Compass Point, this time the Bitcoin sell-off is indeed severe. Last week, investors' realized losses reached as high as $10 billion, marking the second-largest loss since the crypto winter of 2022.
But the good news is that most of these 'panic sell-offs' occur in the final stages of the market, which means the market may be approaching the bottom.
However, analyst Ed Engel also warns—don't expect this to be a V-shaped rebound.
Based on historical experience, Bitcoin is more likely to experience a 'slow bottoming out,' and it may even test the lows of $60,000 or even $55,000 before truly stabilizing.
But the good news is that most of these 'panic sell-offs' occur in the final stages of the market, which means the market may be approaching the bottom.
However, analyst Ed Engel also warns—don't expect this to be a V-shaped rebound.
Based on historical experience, Bitcoin is more likely to experience a 'slow bottoming out,' and it may even test the lows of $60,000 or even $55,000 before truly stabilizing.
On February 11, today, the White House held the second cryptocurrency symposium, gathering teams representing the digital asset industry and traditional banking. The purpose of this meeting was to bridge the divide between the two sides on multiple issues, perhaps the most critical being the stablecoin yield issue.
The White House organized the second "CLARITY Act" symposium, which was described as "productive," but the banking industry remains stubborn regarding the stablecoin yield issue.
Cryptocurrency journalist Eleanor Terrett stated that compared to the last meeting, this was a "smaller-scale, more efficient" meeting. The primary agenda item she listed was to ban the generation of yield from stablecoins, as banks claim this would harm lending to the "public." Even though the reality is quite the opposite.
Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty stated that an agreement might be imminent: "Today's meeting at the White House was productive—an atmosphere of compromise is forming. There remains clear bipartisan momentum in the area of sensible crypto market structure legislation. We should act immediately while the window is still open to win a real victory for consumers and America."
Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated: "The crypto industry is ready to get to work, and we have all made progress. Of course, there is still more work to be done, and we hope all parties can continue to stay at the negotiating table and make the right choices."
The banking industry remains stubborn on the stablecoin yield issue, but the U.S. government hopes to complete the related work by the end of February. #CLARITY法案 #稳定币
The White House organized the second "CLARITY Act" symposium, which was described as "productive," but the banking industry remains stubborn regarding the stablecoin yield issue.
Cryptocurrency journalist Eleanor Terrett stated that compared to the last meeting, this was a "smaller-scale, more efficient" meeting. The primary agenda item she listed was to ban the generation of yield from stablecoins, as banks claim this would harm lending to the "public." Even though the reality is quite the opposite.
Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty stated that an agreement might be imminent: "Today's meeting at the White House was productive—an atmosphere of compromise is forming. There remains clear bipartisan momentum in the area of sensible crypto market structure legislation. We should act immediately while the window is still open to win a real victory for consumers and America."
Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated: "The crypto industry is ready to get to work, and we have all made progress. Of course, there is still more work to be done, and we hope all parties can continue to stay at the negotiating table and make the right choices."
The banking industry remains stubborn on the stablecoin yield issue, but the U.S. government hopes to complete the related work by the end of February. #CLARITY法案 #稳定币
Bithumb mistakenly paid Bitcoin due to errors in activity reward distribution, totaling 620,000 BTC
According to Chosun Biz, South Korea's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb mistakenly paid Bitcoin due to errors in activity reward distribution, totaling 620,000 BTC (approximately 60 trillion Korean Won). As of February 7, there are still 125 BTC (approximately 123 billion Korean Won) unreturned. Bithumb has not taken legal enforcement measures such as temporary detention against the recipients, but instead has persuaded users to voluntarily return the funds through one-on-one contact. According to financial authorities, about 3 billion Korean Won of the unreturned funds have been withdrawn to personal accounts, while approximately 10 billion Korean Won has been used within Bithumb to repurchase altcoins.
If this were in a movie, it might be called 'The 620,000 Bitcoin Blunder'.
Behind the blunder: Technical bug or risk control shortcomings?
Financial regulatory agencies are also paying attention to this matter, but have not yet indicated which part of Bithumb made the mistake. Industry consensus suggests that there was a flaw in the automatic settlement logic of the reward system, leading to erroneous quantity recognition, resulting in 'falling Bitcoin'.
This incident also serves as a reminder: 'technical accidents' at cryptocurrency exchanges are not trivial matters.
If it had not been discovered in time, and no one was willing to return the funds, Bithumb might have faced bankruptcy just from the aftermath.
This time Bithumb is considered lucky, having recovered most of the assets through 'communication and awareness', thus gaining some 'image points' in Korean public opinion. However, investors should also learn something: in the crypto world, what falls from the sky is not a pie, but possibly a bug. #美国科技基金净流 #易理华割肉清仓 #比特币挖矿难度下降 #何时抄底？ #BTC何时反弹？
According to Chosun Biz, South Korea's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb mistakenly paid Bitcoin due to errors in activity reward distribution, totaling 620,000 BTC (approximately 60 trillion Korean Won). As of February 7, there are still 125 BTC (approximately 123 billion Korean Won) unreturned. Bithumb has not taken legal enforcement measures such as temporary detention against the recipients, but instead has persuaded users to voluntarily return the funds through one-on-one contact. According to financial authorities, about 3 billion Korean Won of the unreturned funds have been withdrawn to personal accounts, while approximately 10 billion Korean Won has been used within Bithumb to repurchase altcoins.
If this were in a movie, it might be called 'The 620,000 Bitcoin Blunder'.
Behind the blunder: Technical bug or risk control shortcomings?
Financial regulatory agencies are also paying attention to this matter, but have not yet indicated which part of Bithumb made the mistake. Industry consensus suggests that there was a flaw in the automatic settlement logic of the reward system, leading to erroneous quantity recognition, resulting in 'falling Bitcoin'.
This incident also serves as a reminder: 'technical accidents' at cryptocurrency exchanges are not trivial matters.
If it had not been discovered in time, and no one was willing to return the funds, Bithumb might have faced bankruptcy just from the aftermath.
This time Bithumb is considered lucky, having recovered most of the assets through 'communication and awareness', thus gaining some 'image points' in Korean public opinion. However, investors should also learn something: in the crypto world, what falls from the sky is not a pie, but possibly a bug. #美国科技基金净流 #易理华割肉清仓 #比特币挖矿难度下降 #何时抄底？ #BTC何时反弹？
Binance suddenly became the 'largest dealer of USD1'
Recently, the data platform Arkham Intel disclosed that Binance currently holds 87% of the USD1 stablecoin available on the market. Who issued USD1? It is called 'World Liberty Financial.'
And the interesting thing about this company is that it is a business under the Trump family, which holds 38% of its shares. Therefore, it is widely believed that USD1 can essentially be considered as a 'currency endorsed by the Trump family.'
What does it mean for Binance to hold 87%?
In the entire cryptocurrency market, this is a 'heaven-defying level' of concentration. Among the top ten stablecoins globally, the second place, Ethena USDe, has a concentration of 77.5%, and the third place, Ripple USD, has a concentration of only 35% on Aave. Binance has significantly raised the ceiling.
And the interesting thing about this company is that it is a business under the Trump family, which holds 38% of its shares. Therefore, it is widely believed that USD1 can essentially be considered as a 'currency endorsed by the Trump family.'
What does it mean for Binance to hold 87%?
In the entire cryptocurrency market, this is a 'heaven-defying level' of concentration. Among the top ten stablecoins globally, the second place, Ethena USDe, has a concentration of 77.5%, and the third place, Ripple USD, has a concentration of only 35% on Aave. Binance has significantly raised the ceiling.
News Hot List (24h)
1, The scale of U.S. Treasury bonds held by China has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
The scale of U.S. Treasury bonds held by China has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
2, The first batch of compliant stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is expected to be issued by the end of March.
The first batch of compliant stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is expected to be issued by the end of March, with HSBC and Standard Chartered likely to be the first approved institutions. Sources indicate that after the first batch of licenses is issued, the approval process for the second batch will also be expedited and is expected to be announced soon.
3, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen criticizes Coinbase's resistance to the CLARITY Act, calling it 'stubborn participants'
The scale of U.S. Treasury bonds held by China has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
2, The first batch of compliant stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is expected to be issued by the end of March.
The first batch of compliant stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is expected to be issued by the end of March, with HSBC and Standard Chartered likely to be the first approved institutions. Sources indicate that after the first batch of licenses is issued, the approval process for the second batch will also be expedited and is expected to be announced soon.
3, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen criticizes Coinbase's resistance to the CLARITY Act, calling it 'stubborn participants'
MicroStrategy CEO states that Bitcoin needs to drop to $8,000 and remain flat for 5 years to face debt repayment pressure.
On February 6, MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le stated during the company's Q4 2025 earnings call that only when the price of Bitcoin drops to $8,000 and stays at that level for 5 years will the company truly encounter difficulties in repaying convertible bonds. He pointed out that the theoretical interest rate floor is SOFR (secured overnight financing rate), but MicroStrategy's logic is based on an average annual increase of about 30% for Bitcoin, so as long as the cost of capital is below 20%, it can create value for shareholders. #Bitcoin谷歌搜索量暴升 #BTC何时反弹？ #strategy
On February 6, MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le stated during the company's Q4 2025 earnings call that only when the price of Bitcoin drops to $8,000 and stays at that level for 5 years will the company truly encounter difficulties in repaying convertible bonds. He pointed out that the theoretical interest rate floor is SOFR (secured overnight financing rate), but MicroStrategy's logic is based on an average annual increase of about 30% for Bitcoin, so as long as the cost of capital is below 20%, it can create value for shareholders. #Bitcoin谷歌搜索量暴升 #BTC何时反弹？ #strategy
Address poisoning attacks have caused significant losses, with a single loss of $12.2 million in January
The Scam Sniffer report shows that address poisoning attacks have caused significant losses recently. In January 2024, a victim lost $12.2 million, and in December 2023, similar attacks resulted in a loss of $50 million. In January 2024, signature phishing attacks stole $6.27 million, affecting 4,741 people, a month-on-month increase of 207%, with two wallets accounting for 65% of the total losses. Web3 Antivirus points out that address poisoning is a common method for large losses, and the trend is not diminishing. Analysis indicates that the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade has lowered transaction costs, fueling dust attacks; stablecoin dust transactions account for 11% of Ethereum transactions and 26% of active addresses. Coin Metrics data shows that between November 2025 and January 2026, stablecoin balances were updated over 227 million times, with 38% of balances below 1 cent, suspected of dust poisoning behavior.
News Hot List (24h)
1. BNP Paribas: The pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may be slightly faster than previously expected
Economists at BNP Paribas pointed out that due to the expansionary fiscal policy implemented by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, inflation may rise, and it is expected that the Bank of Japan will accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes. Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in April and then continue to tighten monetary policy every four to five months until the policy rate reaches 2%. The report mentioned that if there are changes in the exchange rate in the future, the rate hike could be moved up to March. Previously, Japanese officials had warned that the government is prepared to respond to excessive fluctuations in the yen.
Economists at BNP Paribas pointed out that due to the expansionary fiscal policy implemented by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, inflation may rise, and it is expected that the Bank of Japan will accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes. Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in April and then continue to tighten monetary policy every four to five months until the policy rate reaches 2%. The report mentioned that if there are changes in the exchange rate in the future, the rate hike could be moved up to March. Previously, Japanese officials had warned that the government is prepared to respond to excessive fluctuations in the yen.
Greeks.live: The sharp decline trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum continues, with put options dominating
Greeks.live revealed on social media that today, 33,000 BTC options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.54 and a maximum pain point of $80,000, representing a notional value of $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, 219,000 ETH options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.91, a maximum pain point of $2,400, and a notional value of $420 million. Currently, the crypto market is turbulent, with BTC dropping below $60,000 at one point and ETH falling below $1,750. The total options expiring today account for 10% of the total open interest, approximately $2.6 billion. The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline, and panic is spreading in the market, with the fear index dropping to 5% at one point.
From the options data, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH has significantly increased, with BTC's main term IV exceeding 60%, short-term at-the-money IV exceeding 110%, and ETH reaching 80%, with short-term at-the-money IV exceeding 120%, all being the highest in over a year. The trading volume and proportion of put options continue to increase, with market makers actively stepping in, although attempts to bottom-fish are quickly swallowed by the downward trend. #何时抄底？ #加密市场回调 #BTC何时反弹？ #易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 #全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产
Greeks.live revealed on social media that today, 33,000 BTC options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.54 and a maximum pain point of $80,000, representing a notional value of $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, 219,000 ETH options are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.91, a maximum pain point of $2,400, and a notional value of $420 million. Currently, the crypto market is turbulent, with BTC dropping below $60,000 at one point and ETH falling below $1,750. The total options expiring today account for 10% of the total open interest, approximately $2.6 billion. The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline, and panic is spreading in the market, with the fear index dropping to 5% at one point.
From the options data, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH has significantly increased, with BTC's main term IV exceeding 60%, short-term at-the-money IV exceeding 110%, and ETH reaching 80%, with short-term at-the-money IV exceeding 120%, all being the highest in over a year. The trading volume and proportion of put options continue to increase, with market makers actively stepping in, although attempts to bottom-fish are quickly swallowed by the downward trend. #何时抄底？ #加密市场回调 #BTC何时反弹？ #易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 #全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产
Perp DEX single-day trading volume history second high exceeded 70 billion dollars
According to DeFiLlama data, on February 5, the single-day trading volume of Perp DEX exceeded 70 billion dollars, setting a historical second-high record, only after the "1011" flash crash day on October 10, 2025. Among them, Hyperliquid's single-day trading volume reached 24.7 billion dollars, Aster reached 10 billion dollars, edgeX reached 8.7 billion dollars, and Lighter reached 7.5 billion dollars.
The contract platform is still very popular~ This time, those who shorted made #何时抄底？ #加密市场回调 #BTC何时反弹？ .
According to DeFiLlama data, on February 5, the single-day trading volume of Perp DEX exceeded 70 billion dollars, setting a historical second-high record, only after the "1011" flash crash day on October 10, 2025. Among them, Hyperliquid's single-day trading volume reached 24.7 billion dollars, Aster reached 10 billion dollars, edgeX reached 8.7 billion dollars, and Lighter reached 7.5 billion dollars.
The contract platform is still very popular~ This time, those who shorted made #何时抄底？ #加密市场回调 #BTC何时反弹？ .
News Hot List (24h)
1. BTC has fallen below $65,000, with a 24-hour decline of 8.31%.
According to HTX market data, BTC has fallen below $65,000, with the current price at $64,996.03, a decline of 8.31% within 24 hours.
2. Benson Sun: The decline in Bitcoin reached a rare -5.65σ, which has only occurred 4 times in history.
Cryptocurrency opinion leader and former FTX community partner Benson Sun stated that the drastic drop in Bitcoin this morning reached extreme levels, with a decline of -5.65 standard deviations (σ) based on a 200-day lookback period, approaching the 'six sigma' standard in manufacturing, where only 3.4 defects are allowed per million opportunities, making it an almost impossible event. The volatility of BTC yesterday was only 0.35 standard deviations smaller than this 'industrial-grade impossibility'. In a normal distribution, the theoretical probability of a -5.65σ event is about one in a hundred million. Despite the fat tail effect commonly seen in financial markets, since the recording of BTC in July 2010, such volatility has only been observed 4 times, accounting for 0.07% of trading days. Even during the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, such a sharp drop was not seen, posing a huge challenge to quantitative strategies. Currently, most quantitative models are based on data post-2015, and cases exceeding 5.65σ, except for the March 12, 2020 crash, all occurred before 2015, with hardly any precedents to refer to. In this market situation, the CoinKarma quantitative strategy has shown a paper loss, but due to long-term low leverage (approximately 1.4 times), the maximum drawdown is about 30%, still within an acceptable range. Extreme market conditions, though costly, provide important data support for future risk control models.
According to HTX market data, BTC has fallen below $65,000, with the current price at $64,996.03, a decline of 8.31% within 24 hours.
2. Benson Sun: The decline in Bitcoin reached a rare -5.65σ, which has only occurred 4 times in history.
Cryptocurrency opinion leader and former FTX community partner Benson Sun stated that the drastic drop in Bitcoin this morning reached extreme levels, with a decline of -5.65 standard deviations (σ) based on a 200-day lookback period, approaching the 'six sigma' standard in manufacturing, where only 3.4 defects are allowed per million opportunities, making it an almost impossible event. The volatility of BTC yesterday was only 0.35 standard deviations smaller than this 'industrial-grade impossibility'. In a normal distribution, the theoretical probability of a -5.65σ event is about one in a hundred million. Despite the fat tail effect commonly seen in financial markets, since the recording of BTC in July 2010, such volatility has only been observed 4 times, accounting for 0.07% of trading days. Even during the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, such a sharp drop was not seen, posing a huge challenge to quantitative strategies. Currently, most quantitative models are based on data post-2015, and cases exceeding 5.65σ, except for the March 12, 2020 crash, all occurred before 2015, with hardly any precedents to refer to. In this market situation, the CoinKarma quantitative strategy has shown a paper loss, but due to long-term low leverage (approximately 1.4 times), the maximum drawdown is about 30%, still within an acceptable range. Extreme market conditions, though costly, provide important data support for future risk control models.
Complaining about some products in the web3 industry
- I have encountered insufficient GAS fees several times when cross-chain, and I need to recharge some mainnet coins for GAS, which is really troublesome. Do you have any good platforms that can solve this problem well? Please recommend in the comments.
- The exchange on the TRON chain is really expensive. I can barely afford to play on the TRON chain anymore! I found an energy leasing platform that can save half of the fees. If anyone is interested, feel free to ask in the comments~#BTC走势分析 #跨链交易 #跨链桥 #能量租赁
- I have encountered insufficient GAS fees several times when cross-chain, and I need to recharge some mainnet coins for GAS, which is really troublesome. Do you have any good platforms that can solve this problem well? Please recommend in the comments.
- The exchange on the TRON chain is really expensive. I can barely afford to play on the TRON chain anymore! I found an energy leasing platform that can save half of the fees. If anyone is interested, feel free to ask in the comments~#BTC走势分析 #跨链交易 #跨链桥 #能量租赁
The probability of predicting "Bitcoin will fall to $65,000 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 78%
On February 4th, the probability of predicting "Bitcoin will fall to $65,000 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 78%. Additionally, the probability of it falling to $55,000 is currently reported at 55%, the probability of rising to $100,000 is currently reported at 56%, and the probability of rising to $110,000 is currently reported at 42%.
On February 4th, the probability of predicting "Bitcoin will fall to $65,000 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 78%. Additionally, the probability of it falling to $55,000 is currently reported at 55%, the probability of rising to $100,000 is currently reported at 56%, and the probability of rising to $110,000 is currently reported at 42%.
'Big Short' Michael Burry: Bitcoin has plummeted by 40%, and if it continues to decline, it may cause 'catastrophic consequences' for Bitcoin treasury companies and the tokenized metal market.
On February 4th, Michael Burry, the well-known 'Big Short' investor, warned that Bitcoin has plummeted by 40%, and if it continues to decline, it may cause lasting damage to companies that have hoarded this asset over the past year. He believes that Bitcoin has proven to be a purely speculative asset and has failed to serve as a hedge like precious metals.
Michael Burry stated on Monday that if Bitcoin drops another 10%, the most aggressive Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy, will face billions of dollars in losses and will be virtually unable to access the capital markets. He warned that a decline in Bitcoin could trigger 'catastrophic consequences,' including a spillover into broader markets and leading to a 'death spiral' in tokenized metal futures. This warning comes as Bitcoin continued to plummet on Tuesday, briefly falling below $73,000, erasing all gains since Trump's re-election in November 2024. Since reaching an all-time high in early October, this digital currency has dropped more than 40%.
Michael Burry stated on Monday that if Bitcoin drops another 10%, the most aggressive Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy, will face billions of dollars in losses and will be virtually unable to access the capital markets. He warned that a decline in Bitcoin could trigger 'catastrophic consequences,' including a spillover into broader markets and leading to a 'death spiral' in tokenized metal futures. This warning comes as Bitcoin continued to plummet on Tuesday, briefly falling below $73,000, erasing all gains since Trump's re-election in November 2024. Since reaching an all-time high in early October, this digital currency has dropped more than 40%.
Economists predict: Kevin Walsh may cut interest rates by 100 basis points before the U.S. midterm elections
According to CoinDesk, economist Robin Brooks predicts that Kevin Walsh, the Federal Reserve chair nominee appointed by President Trump, may cut interest rates by 100 basis points before the midterm elections. This move sharply contrasts with external expectations of Walsh's hawkish stance. #降息期待
According to CoinDesk, economist Robin Brooks predicts that Kevin Walsh, the Federal Reserve chair nominee appointed by President Trump, may cut interest rates by 100 basis points before the midterm elections. This move sharply contrasts with external expectations of Walsh's hawkish stance. #降息期待
Bitwise CIO: The Crypto Winter May Be Coming to an End, Institutional Funds Flowing in Conceals the True Market Conditions
Hougan pointed out that the market is trending towards recovery rather than continuing to decline. He believes that despite the market sentiment appearing fatigued, structural improvements in regulatory progress, institutional adoption, and tokenization are still ongoing. He added that the end of previous crypto winters has typically been marked by market fatigue rather than excitement. In his view, the current sense of despair and fatigue is very similar to the conditions seen when the market has bottomed out in the past. #BTC走势分析 #BTC何时反弹？ #Strategy增持比特币
Hougan pointed out that the market is trending towards recovery rather than continuing to decline. He believes that despite the market sentiment appearing fatigued, structural improvements in regulatory progress, institutional adoption, and tokenization are still ongoing. He added that the end of previous crypto winters has typically been marked by market fatigue rather than excitement. In his view, the current sense of despair and fatigue is very similar to the conditions seen when the market has bottomed out in the past. #BTC走势分析 #BTC何时反弹？ #Strategy增持比特币
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