According to research from the analysis agency Compass Point, this time the Bitcoin sell-off is indeed severe. Last week, investors' realized losses reached as high as $10 billion, marking the second-largest loss since the crypto winter of 2022.
But the good news is that most of these 'panic sell-offs' occur in the final stages of the market, which means the market may be approaching the bottom.
However, analyst Ed Engel also warns—don't expect this to be a V-shaped rebound.
Based on historical experience, Bitcoin is more likely to experience a 'slow bottoming out,' and it may even test the lows of $60,000 or even $55,000 before truly stabilizing.
Meanwhile, Wall Street institution Cantor Fitzgerald has also expressed similar views. They believe that this round of plunge is more like a 'systematic cleaning'—washing out speculation and high-leverage positions, and once the 'bloat' is cleared, the market foundation will be even more solid.
'Whales' bottom fishing: support the market, or is there a deeper meaning?
In the past week, wallets holding more than 1000 Bitcoins—those 'whale' accounts—added approximately 53,000 Bitcoins, worth about $4 billion.
A continuous sell-off over the past few weeks finally saw a reversal, halting the price's downward slope.
However, research institution Glassnode points out: don't celebrate too early.
This buying wave may be more like a form of 'loss control', where big players take advantage of low prices to pull the market up, preventing prices from dropping too harshly.
Because from a longer-term perspective, whales have still been in a net selling state over the past few months—funds have not truly flowed back.
Summary: whales have started buying, but it's still not enough. This is a form of 'technical respite', not yet a full return of confidence.
Wall Street: a rebound is possible, but don't be too eager.
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald believe that this sell-off has released the market's 'bad chips', with the outflow of funds from ETFs and the clearing of high-leverage positions indicating that the market is deleveraging.
They even used a term: 'washout'.
In other words, the current market is not collapsing, but rather undergoing a 'check-up', becoming healthier after clearing out impurities.
In addition, there are macro-level positives:
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, and liquidity is likely to warm up;
The U.S. Treasury is implementing loose policies, giving the market a chance to rebound;
A new round of tax refunds, mortgage easing, and even funds moving out of precious metals could all become 'incremental fuel' for Bitcoin.
All of this together means the market has the potential for a bottom rebound, but the pace may be slower than expected.
The real key: who will step in to buy?
The current Bitcoin market is actually stuck in an awkward position.
On one side are whales replenishing their positions, while on the other, most investors are still hesitant.
ETF funds continue to flow out, corporate investments are no longer enthusiastic, and many retail investors who jumped in at last year's highs are now losing money, naturally hesitant to increase their positions.
Therefore, this wave of 'bottom rebound' is more like a local repair.
To truly return to a bull market, three signals must be watched:
Whales continue to buy, not just short-term support;
ETF funds have shifted from net outflow to net inflow;
Prices have repeatedly stabilized at key support levels, and volatility has begun to decrease.
As long as these signals haven't been seen, the current rebound feels more like a 'recovery phase', not a surge phase.
In summary: the bottom for Bitcoin may be on the way.
This recent plunge has indeed washed away panic and has allowed the market to return to a 'lightly loaded' state.
In the short term, the market does have rebound potential; but in the medium to long term, it still relies on the return of both liquidity and confidence.
So, the current Bitcoin is like a giant ship that is turning around:
The direction is correct, but it still needs time to accelerate.#何时抄底？ #Bitcoin谷歌搜索量暴升 #比特币挖矿难度下降 #比特币走势分析
