小海聊币圈

Large investors often liquidate during periods of extreme pessimism or at the end of market fluctuations. The cryptocurrency market is often counterintuitive.
If it is panic selling, it may actually be close to a temporary bottom.
Impact of sentiment:
Short-term panic → $BTC may drop first
After sentiment is released → Probability of rebound increases
Highly elastic currencies are more easily pulled up:
$SOL may rise
$DOGE may rise
$PEPE may rise
If there are no continuous negative factors afterwards, I actually regard this 'large investor liquidation' as a counter-reference.
#易理华割肉清仓

If retail data is stronger than expected, it indicates that U.S. consumer resilience is still present and the economy is not showing significant signs of cooling, which could delay interest rate cut expectations.
This would be a short-term negative for risk assets.
Logic:
Strong data → The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates → U.S. Treasury yields rise → Funds flow back to the dollar
Risk assets are under pressure
Possible impacts:
$BTC short-term bearish
$ETH follows the market and is bearish
Altcoins ($SOL, $ARB, $OP) may see larger declines
However, if the data is below expectations, the market will reprice for "earlier rate cuts," leading to a wave of emotional uplift for risk assets.
In the case of weak data:
$BTC may rise
$ETH may rise
AI concept coins like $FET , $RNDR are likely to be boosted by funds
#美国零售数据预期

The technology fund has seen a significant net inflow, indicating that capital is re-betting on technology growth stocks. If the Nasdaq strengthens, the cryptocurrency market, especially "technology narrative assets," often tends to strengthen simultaneously.
The cryptocurrency market is essentially high Beta technology assets.
Impact judgment:
Nasdaq strong → $BTC tends to rise
$ETH tends to rise
AI sector $FET , $AGIX, $RNDR may rise
L2 such as $ARB, $OP are also easily driven by sentiment to rise
But one point to note:
If technology absorbs too much liquidity, it may also lead to a differentiation trend of "strong stocks and weak coins."
At present, I tend to favor the logic of simultaneous strength.
#美国科技基金净流入

The South Korean financial regulatory agency officially launched an investigation on Tuesday into the incident where Bithumb exchange mistakenly issued $41.2 billion worth of 'ghost' bitcoins. Last Friday, a promotional event by Bitstamp erroneously sent 620,000 coins (worth trillions of won) to 249 customers, while the exchange actually held only 10,000 coins, with customer-held assets constituting the vast majority. The chairman of the Financial Supervisory Service of South Korea emphasized the importance of addressing the issue of ghost coins in virtual currencies, stating that the investigation's results will impact the revision of the virtual asset bill and may trigger stricter regulations. The market is concerned about the authenticity of the exchange's asset reserves, and a trust crisis may exacerbate selling pressure, putting downward pressure on BTC prices. In the short term, it is advised to avoid related exchange platform tokens, and spot holders should remain vigilant and wait for clarity on the regulatory investigation, avoiding high-leverage operations.

Chinese $MEME coin based on Binance, I am here, meme, skyrocket WTMLL
Short-term bearish.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the cryptocurrency boom triggered by Trump is fading, with regulatory uncertainty and institutional risk control adjustments leading to a wave of selling. $BTC has dropped over 40% from the October peak, falling below $60,000 last week, creating a new 16-month low. ETF funds have seen net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with $320 million liquidated in 24 hours. The funding rate for perpetual contracts remains negative, and the open interest has shrunk by 50%. Institutional capital withdrawal has intensified liquidity tightening, leading to a chain reaction of forced liquidations in leveraged long positions. The put skew in options remains high, and market sentiment has plunged into extreme panic, making a strong unilateral trend unlikely in the short term. It is recommended to avoid high leverage in the short term and wait for stabilization signals, with a small position near the $65,000 support level and strict stop-loss measures.

The Financial Supervisory Service of South Korea announced its work plan for 2026, which will conduct special investigations into high-risk areas of the virtual asset market, focusing on cracking down on price manipulation behaviors such as "large whales". It will develop AI analysis tools for second-level and minute-level analysis of abnormal surges, introduce a punitive fine system, and strengthen CEO safety responsibilities, while also establishing a preparation group for the "Fundamental Law of Digital Assets". The tightening of regulations increases market uncertainty, with investors significantly raising their compliance requirements. Trading platforms face stricter scrutiny, and short-term market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to avoid high-volatility trading in the short term, pay attention to compliance progress, and wait for regulatory policies to clarify before making decisions. In summary, $BTC is bearish in the short term.

The Bitcoin market experienced a drastic swing within 24 hours, with prices fluctuating sharply leading to over 90,000 liquidations. At one point, it touched the $60,000 mark, creating a new low in 16 months, before rebounding strongly to above $71,000, with an intraday volatility exceeding 18%. Market sentiment has plunged into extreme panic, with several top institutions releasing 2026 outlook reports, predicting that Bitcoin's volatility will for the first time fall below that of Nvidia stock, gradually transforming into a mature asset. Short-term volatility has significantly increased risk, and it is advised to strictly control position sizes, avoid high-leverage operations, and patiently wait for market stabilization signals.

After experiencing a violent rebound on Friday, ETH surged significantly in a single day, reaching a high of $2133.30 within 24 hours, as market sentiment shifted from extreme fear to cautious optimism. Simultaneously, ETH still faces strong resistance in the $2300-2500 range. In terms of operations, participants can engage in the rebound with light positions in the short term, strictly setting stop losses, and focusing on whether the resistance level of $2100-2150 can be broken with volume. $ETH is bullish in the short term but caution is needed in the medium term.

Event Overview: Eight domestic departments jointly issued the "strictest" ban in history, completely prohibiting the tokenization of unapproved RWA and closing all regulatory loopholes.

Key Data: The ban was issued yesterday, and $BTC responded with the largest single-day drop since the FTX collapse, while Google search volume surged to a one-year high.

Market Reaction: Market panic intensified, exacerbated by the recent incident with Bithumb in South Korea, and major short-seller Barry warned that the depth of the correction may exceed expectations.

Operational Tips: Domestic investors must stay away from the high-yield temptations of virtual currencies, while global traders should monitor $BTC fluctuating in the range of $60,000 to $70,000, with strict position control.

South Korea's second largest cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb made a mistake during a promotional event, mistakenly distributing a reward of 620,000 KRW as 620,000 bitcoins, totaling over 44 billion USD, becoming the biggest blunder at the beginning of 2026. The error was discovered 20 minutes later, leading the exchange to urgently freeze 695 accounts and recover 99.7% of the assets; the price plummeted instantly. The technical aspect of BTC has been damaged, and the support level of 60,000 USD is under test. Investors are advised to watch and wait for the price to stabilize above 68,000 USD and for the daily MACD to show a golden cross before making any light investments, with positions not exceeding 5%.

Event Overview: $MEME leads the Meme coin sector, rising 3.9% in 24 hours, becoming a hot topic on Binance Square, but technically overbought.

Key Data: Current price $0.00075, market cap $45.86 million; 15-minute RSI reaches 72, indicating overbought conditions, hitting 4-hour resistance at 0.000752, with the daily trend still declining.

Market Reaction: Traders are highly divided, with frequent short-selling alerts, believing it is the 'last rally before a crash'; holders are expecting a return of sentiment.

Operational Tips: Overbought signals combined with resistance pressure indicate a high probability of a short-term pullback; do not chase if it hasn't broken 0.000775; position within 5%, stop loss at 0.000694.

Bitcoin deep V reversal, violently rising 13% within 24 hours from a low of $60,000 to return to $70,000, reclaiming losses from Thursday.

Key data: lowest $60,008 set a new low for October 2024, a daily increase of 13% set a three-year record; 586,000 liquidations across the network, $2.1 billion.

Market reaction: fear index 10→20, institutions deleveraging and selling off, bottom-fishing funds driving technical rebounds.

Operation tips: extreme volatility, do not chase long positions if not stabilizing above $68,000, keep position within 5%, pay attention to funding rates and ETF signals.
#加密市场反弹

The central bank and eight government departments jointly issued a document, reiterating that virtual currency business is an illegal financial activity, which is completely prohibited within the country, and for the first time explicitly prohibiting the issuance of stablecoins linked to the Renminbi.

Key data: $BTC After the policy, there was a volatile drop, with 440,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, totaling 13.7 billion yuan; fear index at 12, with low sentiment.

Market reaction: The crypto circle calls it the "strictest" regulation in history, domestic channels are restricted, and overseas services face blockage.

Operational tips: Domestic investors should stop trading and liquidate assets; for overseas, use compliant channels, keep positions within 5%, and do not buy the dip unless stabilizing above $68000.

Market rumors that Binance and ByBit have suspended withdrawals have intensified the sell-off, but the exchanges claim there are technical issues and sufficient liquidity.

Key data: $BTC dropped below $64,000, falling over 13% within the day, with 430,000 liquidations across the network; Binance account balances have rebounded, indicating net inflows of funds.

Market response: The surge in withdrawals on social media conflicts with on-chain data, leading to extreme market sentiment divergence, with a fear index of 12.

Operational tips: Avoid panic operations, keep position control within 5%, do not buy the dip unless it stabilizes above $68,000, prioritize personal wallets.

Binance has delisted $ACA and 6 other tokens today, gradually stopping related services.

Key data: Involved are 6 tokens including CHESS, DF, and NKN, with spot trading pairs already delisted; contracts will be settled at 17:00.

Market reaction: Shrinking liquidity has triggered panic selling, with related tokens dropping over 10% in 24 hours.

Operation tips: Users holding tokens should immediately assess risks, convert positions before the deadline, and avoid liquidity exhaustion, keeping positions under 5%.