老k
一介布衣不敢乱了凡心， 一颗凡心不敢乱了这世间美好， 一切世间美好都不如这万千大道， 一切大道都在方寸之间， 方寸之间皆是我心，妙哉！妙哉！
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The panic spiral of AI has already begun, are you all ready?
The real "powder keg" of this round of AI panic is buried in the credit market, and the trigger point is not high liquidity bonds, but rather the $30 trillion, extremely opaque private credit. The current brutal sell-off is not the crisis itself, but the pre-pricing of the crisis.
Direct evidence — the panic transmission chain has become very clear:
📍 Step one: the target is clear (the software industry is the creditor's favorite)
Software companies account for 17% of loans from U.S. business development companies (BDC) and are the most favored borrowing group by private credit funds. The threat from Anthropic tools is not the abstract "tech stock valuations," but the cash flow foundation of these borrowing enterprises.
Direct evidence — the panic transmission chain has become very clear:
📍 Step one: the target is clear (the software industry is the creditor's favorite)
Software companies account for 17% of loans from U.S. business development companies (BDC) and are the most favored borrowing group by private credit funds. The threat from Anthropic tools is not the abstract "tech stock valuations," but the cash flow foundation of these borrowing enterprises.
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现在还在刷分的朋友，不要有什么格局的想法。
早就结束了，现在刷分又夹，磨损还高，15分成本都在30u，一个月能抢3次就不错了，基本反撸遇到被夹得凶得更惨，大趋势在哪放着，都这熊样了。这种“给馿面前吊一个胡萝卜🥕的游戏”该放弃了。
早就结束了，现在刷分又夹，磨损还高，15分成本都在30u，一个月能抢3次就不错了，基本反撸遇到被夹得凶得更惨，大趋势在哪放着，都这熊样了。这种“给馿面前吊一个胡萝卜🥕的游戏”该放弃了。
Let's trace back the story behind the BTC crisis at the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb!!!
Behind the crisis of 2000 BTC: The fundamental issue of CEX ledgers
On the evening of February 6, South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb caused an incident that was significant enough to be recorded in the annual of the cryptocurrency industry during a routine marketing campaign.
What was originally a very small-scale 'random treasure chest' event. According to official design, the platform planned to distribute a total of about 620,000 KRW in cash rewards to 695 participating users, of which 249 actually opened the treasure chest and claimed the reward, meaning an individual amount of about 2000 KRW, equivalent to only around 1.4 USD. However, due to a backend configuration error, the reward unit was mistakenly set from KRW to BTC, instantly 'airdropping' 2000 BTC to each user who opened the treasure chest, totaling 620,000 BTC, with the display assets of a single account exceeding 160 million USD.
On the evening of February 6, South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb caused an incident that was significant enough to be recorded in the annual of the cryptocurrency industry during a routine marketing campaign.
What was originally a very small-scale 'random treasure chest' event. According to official design, the platform planned to distribute a total of about 620,000 KRW in cash rewards to 695 participating users, of which 249 actually opened the treasure chest and claimed the reward, meaning an individual amount of about 2000 KRW, equivalent to only around 1.4 USD. However, due to a backend configuration error, the reward unit was mistakenly set from KRW to BTC, instantly 'airdropping' 2000 BTC to each user who opened the treasure chest, totaling 620,000 BTC, with the display assets of a single account exceeding 160 million USD.
Sleepless Night
I have never been someone who likes to take the initiative. Although my soul is interesting, I do not like to express it. I'm stubborn and slow to warm up. Meeting someone who understands me is fortunate, and not meeting one is also normal. I enjoy solitude, have a correct view of life, and have gotten used to others' fluctuating warmth and coldness. I also see all gains and losses with indifference. I am much more affectionate than you might think, and also more indifferent than you believe. In my own world, I take care of myself, and in others' worlds, I go with the flow. It is a blessing for someone to understand me, and it is my own journey when no one does.
I have never been someone who likes to take the initiative. Although my soul is interesting, I do not like to express it. I'm stubborn and slow to warm up. Meeting someone who understands me is fortunate, and not meeting one is also normal. I enjoy solitude, have a correct view of life, and have gotten used to others' fluctuating warmth and coldness. I also see all gains and losses with indifference. I am much more affectionate than you might think, and also more indifferent than you believe. In my own world, I take care of myself, and in others' worlds, I go with the flow. It is a blessing for someone to understand me, and it is my own journey when no one does.
Those who enjoy trading stocks, futures, forex, and mainstream cryptocurrencies can communicate more.
No VPN is required, it can serve as a withdrawal roadmap, and has been trading steadily for 6 years. Trading can only be considered a long-term side job; I believe the remaining ones will be the kings...
No VPN is required, it can serve as a withdrawal roadmap, and has been trading steadily for 6 years. Trading can only be considered a long-term side job; I believe the remaining ones will be the kings...
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I am very glad that you 'little brats' have experienced trading as a 'mandatory course' in society. The best education for adults is this lesson...
Trading is indeed a subject that profoundly shapes individuals, a 'mandatory course' in society; it teaches people much more than just money and numbers — it is more like a mirror, forcing us to confront the boundaries of our humanity. What many who have been tempered by the market truly learn is:
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1. The first lesson taught by the market: uncertainty is the norm
· You can never predict the direction of the next second with 100% certainty; you can only respond to probabilities through rules.
· Reality mapping: life, career, and interpersonal relationships are also filled with uncertainty; trying to 'control everything' is often the root of suffering. You are who you are, do not become what others see you as, accept your imperfections.
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1. The first lesson taught by the market: uncertainty is the norm
· You can never predict the direction of the next second with 100% certainty; you can only respond to probabilities through rules.
· Reality mapping: life, career, and interpersonal relationships are also filled with uncertainty; trying to 'control everything' is often the root of suffering. You are who you are, do not become what others see you as, accept your imperfections.
The 'flywheel' of economic decline has already started. Should we fear and hesitate or forge ahead? (*＾ー＾) We are all transient beings in each other's lives; live well in this moment, and both you and I can become 'sacred'...
First, let's attempt to answer the question of whether this 'flywheel has started'.
1. The accumulation of negative effects: a self-reinforcing 'downward cycle'?
· De-globalization and geopolitical conflicts (Trump's politics, the Middle East situation, the Russia-Ukraine war): These factors have collectively raised the 'global cost'. This is manifested in: the costs of restructuring supply chains, fluctuations in energy and food prices, increased trade barriers, and rising security expenditures. This directly erodes the operational efficiency of the global economy.
· Dollar de-dollarization: This is a reflection of the aforementioned geopolitical friction in the financial realm. Although the process is slow and filled with reversals, it increases the uncertainty of global capital flows, potentially undermining the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools and, in extreme cases, triggering a liquidity crisis.
1. The accumulation of negative effects: a self-reinforcing 'downward cycle'?
· De-globalization and geopolitical conflicts (Trump's politics, the Middle East situation, the Russia-Ukraine war): These factors have collectively raised the 'global cost'. This is manifested in: the costs of restructuring supply chains, fluctuations in energy and food prices, increased trade barriers, and rising security expenditures. This directly erodes the operational efficiency of the global economy.
· Dollar de-dollarization: This is a reflection of the aforementioned geopolitical friction in the financial realm. Although the process is slow and filled with reversals, it increases the uncertainty of global capital flows, potentially undermining the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools and, in extreme cases, triggering a liquidity crisis.
Philosophical reflections in the fire 🔥
1. Existentialist 'absurdity of value'
The value basis of cryptocurrency is similar to Sartre's assertion that 'existence precedes essence'—it has no inherent 'essential support' in gold or state credit; its value is entirely constructed by collective belief and market consensus, exposing humanity's desire and fear of an 'absolute free market' amid extreme volatility. This 'groundless value' is precisely the metaphor for symbolic existence in modern society: everything can be redefined by narrative.
2. Hegel's 'master-slave dialectic' contemporary interpretation
The market is trapped in the 'eternal struggle between holders (masters) and traders (slaves)': early believers (HODLers) attempt to define value through steadfastness, while high-frequency traders extract profits through volatility, both mutually dependent yet denying each other. The conflict between regulation (thesis) and decentralization (antithesis) is giving rise to 'compliance' as the synthesis, but the process is inevitably accompanied by growing pains.
The value basis of cryptocurrency is similar to Sartre's assertion that 'existence precedes essence'—it has no inherent 'essential support' in gold or state credit; its value is entirely constructed by collective belief and market consensus, exposing humanity's desire and fear of an 'absolute free market' amid extreme volatility. This 'groundless value' is precisely the metaphor for symbolic existence in modern society: everything can be redefined by narrative.
2. Hegel's 'master-slave dialectic' contemporary interpretation
The market is trapped in the 'eternal struggle between holders (masters) and traders (slaves)': early believers (HODLers) attempt to define value through steadfastness, while high-frequency traders extract profits through volatility, both mutually dependent yet denying each other. The conflict between regulation (thesis) and decentralization (antithesis) is giving rise to 'compliance' as the synthesis, but the process is inevitably accompanied by growing pains.
Ethereum has returned to the era starting with one, after nine months of observation, what does this mean...
When Ethereum fell below $2000 again after experiencing a bull market cycle, returning to the 'one thousand' price level (i.e., $1000+), it is not just a change in numbers, but reflects a fundamental shift across a series of market, macro, and technical aspects.
1. Dramatic changes in the macro environment
· High interest rates and liquidity tightening: This is the most fundamental reason. The aggressive interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening policies implemented by major central banks globally (especially the Federal Reserve) to combat inflation have significantly withdrawn liquidity from the financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, as high-risk, high-volatility 'frontier risk assets', are extremely sensitive to liquidity. When 'cheap money' disappears from the market, funds will first withdraw from these types of assets.
1. Dramatic changes in the macro environment
· High interest rates and liquidity tightening: This is the most fundamental reason. The aggressive interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening policies implemented by major central banks globally (especially the Federal Reserve) to combat inflation have significantly withdrawn liquidity from the financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, as high-risk, high-volatility 'frontier risk assets', are extremely sensitive to liquidity. When 'cheap money' disappears from the market, funds will first withdraw from these types of assets.
Is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange issuing coins a formation of new rules or a capital 'hunting' in a transition track!!!
This is a very sensitive and complex issue.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as one of the largest and most regulated financial derivatives exchanges in the world, has significant implications in every step it takes in the cryptocurrency space. Regarding 'issuing coins,' it is important to clarify one point: CME is more likely to issue 'financial products' related to crypto assets (such as futures, options, ETFs, etc.), rather than directly issuing an independent 'token' used for payment or ecological governance.
We can analyze this issue from two angles:
1. Formation of new rules: The formal acceptance and institutionalization of the traditional financial system
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as one of the largest and most regulated financial derivatives exchanges in the world, has significant implications in every step it takes in the cryptocurrency space. Regarding 'issuing coins,' it is important to clarify one point: CME is more likely to issue 'financial products' related to crypto assets (such as futures, options, ETFs, etc.), rather than directly issuing an independent 'token' used for payment or ecological governance.
We can analyze this issue from two angles:
1. Formation of new rules: The formal acceptance and institutionalization of the traditional financial system
The bottom is definitely not reached, everyone should not be narrow-minded.
Cuts still need to be made, and if there's really no way out, just hedge and lie flat for a while to see, using time to exchange for space. Looking at it from a longer time dimension tells a different story (◍•ᴗ•◍)
How long the tug-of-war between Bitcoin at 70000 and altcoins at 2000 will last is hard to say, but before the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, there will definitely be a significant drop due to panic selling, which is the familiar spike we imagine. After overcoming this hurdle, it will be the recovery period, and then the narrative explosion period, a cyclical change.
Everyone's risk control is different, positions vary, and risk tolerance also differs. I can only say to respect the market, believe in the market, and ultimately achieve success through the market.
We need time to settle ourselves and refine ourselves, this growth process is painful.
The weaknesses of human nature are vividly reflected.
Greed, fear, indecision, demonic possession, violent mania, etc., will all return to calm. We need a long-term intimate relationship to protect our hearts and minds. Spiritual solitude is a good medicine, healing requires high-dimensional self-awareness.
Sailing for 90,000 miles, it is also countless human fireworks.
Riding the horse on the spring equinox, with great passion and feasting, watching the present and the past...
Cuts still need to be made, and if there's really no way out, just hedge and lie flat for a while to see, using time to exchange for space. Looking at it from a longer time dimension tells a different story (◍•ᴗ•◍)
How long the tug-of-war between Bitcoin at 70000 and altcoins at 2000 will last is hard to say, but before the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, there will definitely be a significant drop due to panic selling, which is the familiar spike we imagine. After overcoming this hurdle, it will be the recovery period, and then the narrative explosion period, a cyclical change.
Everyone's risk control is different, positions vary, and risk tolerance also differs. I can only say to respect the market, believe in the market, and ultimately achieve success through the market.
We need time to settle ourselves and refine ourselves, this growth process is painful.
The weaknesses of human nature are vividly reflected.
Greed, fear, indecision, demonic possession, violent mania, etc., will all return to calm. We need a long-term intimate relationship to protect our hearts and minds. Spiritual solitude is a good medicine, healing requires high-dimensional self-awareness.
Sailing for 90,000 miles, it is also countless human fireworks.
Riding the horse on the spring equinox, with great passion and feasting, watching the present and the past...
Impact of AI Agents on Large Companies and Individuals. Acknowledge Change, Embrace Change, Undertake Change...
Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents, capable of autonomous perception, decision-making, and execution, are having a profound impact on large companies. Below is an analysis of the potential shocks and impacts they may bring:
1. Core Impact Areas
1. Transformation of Labor Structure
· Job Replacement and Restructuring: AI agents may replace repetitive, process-driven jobs (such as customer service, data entry, basic analysis), while also creating new positions (such as AI trainers, ethics regulators).
· Human-AI Collaboration Models: Employees need to learn to work collaboratively with AI, while management must redesign organizational processes to leverage the respective advantages of humans and machines.
1. Core Impact Areas
1. Transformation of Labor Structure
· Job Replacement and Restructuring: AI agents may replace repetitive, process-driven jobs (such as customer service, data entry, basic analysis), while also creating new positions (such as AI trainers, ethics regulators).
· Human-AI Collaboration Models: Employees need to learn to work collaboratively with AI, while management must redesign organizational processes to leverage the respective advantages of humans and machines.
June 2026 FOMC Meeting, Wash's Debut May Set the Tone for the Monetary Landscape in the Coming Years. What Preparations Do We Need to Make in Advance...
Regarding the June 2026 FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve and Kevin Wash's assumption of the chairmanship, the key preparations should focus on his unique policy ideas and the potential divergence in the market.
🔭 Core Observation Point: Wash's 'Policy Puzzle'
Wash's policy proposals differ from the traditional path; the order and tools for controlling inflation and cutting interest rates will change. You need to pay attention to the following three core changes:
1. Policy Mix: The unique 'balance sheet reduction + interest rate cut'
· Core Advocacy: Wash has long criticized the Federal Reserve's large balance sheet. He believes that reducing the balance sheet (balance sheet reduction) can effectively control inflation and create space for real interest rate cuts. Some market analyses suggest that for every $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet, the effect is roughly equivalent to a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
🔭 Core Observation Point: Wash's 'Policy Puzzle'
Wash's policy proposals differ from the traditional path; the order and tools for controlling inflation and cutting interest rates will change. You need to pay attention to the following three core changes:
1. Policy Mix: The unique 'balance sheet reduction + interest rate cut'
· Core Advocacy: Wash has long criticized the Federal Reserve's large balance sheet. He believes that reducing the balance sheet (balance sheet reduction) can effectively control inflation and create space for real interest rate cuts. Some market analyses suggest that for every $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet, the effect is roughly equivalent to a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Everyone has fallen asleep and was woken up by the mobile phone reminder.
The bottom has formed in stages, but unfortunately, there was a liquidation.
I haven't traded for a few months, during this time I'm finding my trading feel with small capital. Most of my trading system comes from the refinement of the theory of 'Chan' and momentum theory. Those who enjoy trading can discuss together.
Now Ethereum has entered the adjustment phase, waiting for the adjustment to decrease volume~until the adjustment increases volume. If the adjustment is sufficient and lasts long enough, it will be the next stage of the big trend.
The bottom has formed in stages, but unfortunately, there was a liquidation.
I haven't traded for a few months, during this time I'm finding my trading feel with small capital. Most of my trading system comes from the refinement of the theory of 'Chan' and momentum theory. Those who enjoy trading can discuss together.
Now Ethereum has entered the adjustment phase, waiting for the adjustment to decrease volume~until the adjustment increases volume. If the adjustment is sufficient and lasts long enough, it will be the next stage of the big trend.
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Cryptocurrency 'winter' we need time to refine ourselves
It is difficult to accurately predict when the cryptocurrency market will end its current 'winter', as it is influenced by multiple complex factors. However, we can analyze the current key constraints and potential catalysts to assess the conditions and approximate paths for the market to emerge from the trough.
❄️ Understanding the current 'winter': Three core constraining factors
The current cycle is not only constrained by traditional monetary policy but also faces deeper structural challenges:
1. Macroeconomics and liquidity pressure: This remains the biggest constraint. The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates to combat inflation, leading to a tightening of global dollar liquidity. The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed to mid-2026 or even early 2027. This, combined with the previously discussed tendency of 'balance sheet reduction first' that Walsh may adopt in 2026, means that the narrative of liquidity flooding in the medium term has completely reversed, posing ongoing pressure on cryptocurrencies that rely on liquidity.
❄️ Understanding the current 'winter': Three core constraining factors
The current cycle is not only constrained by traditional monetary policy but also faces deeper structural challenges:
1. Macroeconomics and liquidity pressure: This remains the biggest constraint. The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates to combat inflation, leading to a tightening of global dollar liquidity. The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed to mid-2026 or even early 2027. This, combined with the previously discussed tendency of 'balance sheet reduction first' that Walsh may adopt in 2026, means that the narrative of liquidity flooding in the medium term has completely reversed, posing ongoing pressure on cryptocurrencies that rely on liquidity.
Will the Iran nuclear issue lead to a major war?
This is a very complex and dynamically changing issue. In simple terms: the risk of a large-scale, direct international war (such as Iran vs. the United States or Israel) breaking out in the short term (for example, in the next 1-2 years) is relatively low, but the likelihood of local friction, proxy conflict escalation, and long-term strategic risks is extremely high.
The following is a detailed analysis from both low-risk and high-risk perspectives:
I. Factors that suppress total war (why large-scale wars do not easily break out)
1. Deterrence and military balance: Iran possesses one of the largest missile arsenals in the Middle East (including ballistic and cruise missiles), as well as numerous proxy armed groups (such as Hezbollah and the Houthis). Any country that attacks Iran would incur a tremendous cost, which creates effective deterrence.
The following is a detailed analysis from both low-risk and high-risk perspectives:
I. Factors that suppress total war (why large-scale wars do not easily break out)
1. Deterrence and military balance: Iran possesses one of the largest missile arsenals in the Middle East (including ballistic and cruise missiles), as well as numerous proxy armed groups (such as Hezbollah and the Houthis). Any country that attacks Iran would incur a tremendous cost, which creates effective deterrence.
Will cryptocurrencies become real 'money'?
Programmable cryptocurrencies like Ethereum aim not only to become 'money' but also to serve as the infrastructure for the next generation of financial systems and value internet. It may not completely replace the 'money' we use daily (such as cash and bank deposits), but it is likely to profoundly change the form, flow, and creation logic of 'money'.
Let's break down this question in detail:
1. What is 'real money'?
Traditional 'money' needs to have three core functions:
· Store of value: It can maintain its value, and people have confidence in its future value.
Let's break down this question in detail:
1. What is 'real money'?
Traditional 'money' needs to have three core functions:
· Store of value: It can maintain its value, and people have confidence in its future value.
Some references on gold
Currently, institutions generally believe that gold may experience a correction in the future (especially after the second half of 2026), but there are differences regarding its magnitude and short-term trends. You can quickly understand the comparison of views from the following institutions:
🏦 Citigroup
Core viewpoint: Bearish on the second half of the year
Main reason: Valuation has reached extreme levels, and if risk aversion subsides, prices may face structural corrections.
Specific prediction: Benchmark price $4600 per ounce, may drop to $3000 per ounce under bear market scenario (20% probability)
🏦 JPMorgan & Deutsche Bank
Core viewpoint: Recent decline is a buying opportunity, long-term outlook is positive
🏦 Citigroup
Core viewpoint: Bearish on the second half of the year
Main reason: Valuation has reached extreme levels, and if risk aversion subsides, prices may face structural corrections.
Specific prediction: Benchmark price $4600 per ounce, may drop to $3000 per ounce under bear market scenario (20% probability)
🏦 JPMorgan & Deutsche Bank
Core viewpoint: Recent decline is a buying opportunity, long-term outlook is positive
Clearing market bubbles in a debt-driven economic model is the best 'cure'
The degree of 'market bubble clearing' varies greatly: Some markets (like A-shares) have relatively sufficient 'clearing', while others (like the US stock AI sector) not only have bubbles that remain uncleared but may also be at their peak. Market experts have significant disagreements regarding the outlook for 2026.
Below, I have summarized the key viewpoints and representative opinions of the main asset classes for you to quickly understand the overall picture:
🏠 Real estate and local debt
· Core viewpoint: Proactive clearing, but the process is lengthy
· Key performance/criteria: Policy shift towards supply-side management, emphasizing 'proactive debt' and market-oriented restructuring.
Below, I have summarized the key viewpoints and representative opinions of the main asset classes for you to quickly understand the overall picture:
🏠 Real estate and local debt
· Core viewpoint: Proactive clearing, but the process is lengthy
· Key performance/criteria: Policy shift towards supply-side management, emphasizing 'proactive debt' and market-oriented restructuring.
Current Assessment Logic Regarding Gold
The current gold price is still fluctuating around 4800 (approximately 2340 USD/ounce, May 2024), exceeding the 'rational' range of many traditional models. The driving force has shifted from traditional 'anti-inflation' to 'de-risking' and 'reconstruction of the global monetary system.'
The following are several major analytical perspectives:
1. Traditional fundamental models (partially 'failed')
This is the most classic 'rational' analytical framework, mainly looking at:
· Real interest rates (U.S. inflation-protected securities TIPS yield): Gold does not pay interest, and real interest rates represent the opportunity cost of holding gold. Traditionally, real interest rates have a strong negative correlation with gold prices. However, current U.S. real interest rates are at multi-year highs (>2%), while gold prices have soared simultaneously, breaking this historical relationship.
The following are several major analytical perspectives:
1. Traditional fundamental models (partially 'failed')
This is the most classic 'rational' analytical framework, mainly looking at:
· Real interest rates (U.S. inflation-protected securities TIPS yield): Gold does not pay interest, and real interest rates represent the opportunity cost of holding gold. Traditionally, real interest rates have a strong negative correlation with gold prices. However, current U.S. real interest rates are at multi-year highs (>2%), while gold prices have soared simultaneously, breaking this historical relationship.
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