ALL KILL OUT

$XAU $PAXG $XAG #黄金 #白银
The recent market volatility has significantly contracted, which is a good sign.
[China Gold Reserve Data] We see that the new publicly available data from the People's Bank of China indicates that they are still increasing their holdings, which means that the price at this position is definitely not considered overvalued by the country. The 10% gold foreign reserve ratio is also lower than the world average. This indicates that the upward drive of this gold bull market has not yet ended.

[Technical Analysis] It was previously mentioned that this round is characterized by wide fluctuations, and one of the signals for a bottoming out is a contraction of volatility to normal levels, which has now occurred. Unfortunately, it did not appear at the bottom of the fluctuations but at the top, so we should observe for now. It is expected that there will be one more small downward fluctuation, and if the closing does not break around 4700 (PAXG), it can be bought. You can also enter the market early around 4700, as this support currently looks quite strong, but it may stop falling around 4800. How to establish a position depends on everyone's risk tolerance; act according to the situation.

$PAXG $XAU $XAG #黄金
The logic driving this round of collapse is [Eagle King's nomination ---> expectations of tapering ---> Bessenet's call for a 'strong dollar'].
But the phrase 'always supporting a strong dollar policy' is not something that can be easily realized. The U.S. is currently creating chaos everywhere, essentially hoping to make the world use more dollars and buy more U.S. Treasury bonds, but in the end, it has backfired, prompting other countries to increase their gold reserves as a hedge.
1. The current view on gold is a mid-term converging volatility; the volatility is too large right now, so wait for it to contract before gradually building long positions.
2. Of course, you can play short-term PVP now; if there is a crash, you can buy the dip. Today, the original plan was to buy the dip if there was a decline, but it seems to have rebounded early. Just be aware of the risks; there is a descending track (blue line) above, and it’s best not to chase the long position right now.

Last night was a bit difficult to hold on, coin stocks and gold continued to plummet. I didn't expect the support at 70000 to be as fragile as paper, quickly breaking down to below 60000.
$BTC #BTC #BTC何时反弹？
BTC has confirmed its return to the box of 73000~55000, and the expectation of making a fluctuating continuation remains unchanged.
63000 can be considered the middle track of this box, and 60000 and below can continue to gradually accumulate coins.

$ETH #ETH #ETH走势分析
Ether will not be illustrated, it can only be said that the predicted support at 2000 is indeed ineffective, directly crashing to 1800. It is estimated that this round will head towards 1500~1400. It is a pity that one should have considered the correlation effect between BTC and ETH and anticipated that BTC would also crash.

[BTC Trend Analysis]#BTC
$BTC The daily level is gradually oversold, and the 70000~72000 level shouldn't be easily broken. There is indeed a downward pressure, but as mentioned in the previous episode, it will still take time for Wash to come to power. The market is just panicking in advance, and there aren't many substantial bearish factors. For now, let's see a rebound to around 72000~75000. We cannot rule out the possibility of Iran's talks breaking down or the unemployment rate exploding, first hitting 68000 and then rebounding. In short, this is viewed as a transitional structure; overall, we won't bottom-fish during the decline, but chasing shorts doesn't make much sense either.

[ETH Trend Analysis] #ETH $ETH
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 There's really nothing much to say 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 The 2000 support, based on past experience 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 If it weren't for the spike 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 it would be almost like paper mache 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 Encountering 2000 basically means going to 1800~1600 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 Just good luck, friends! 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[Future News] #美国伊朗对峙 #小非农数据不及预期
1. The Russia-Ukraine talks will take place from February 4 to February 5 (it feels like it's trending towards easing);
2. The US-Iran talks will take place on February 6 (this feels like it might cool off; the tension is currently high with significant disagreements, which could be good for gold, but we cannot rule out some official statements like 'we have made progress');
3. The unemployment claims in the United States for the period of February 5 to February 6 will be released, along with the unemployment rate for January. Pay close attention to the attitude of the Federal Reserve (yesterday's minor non-farm payroll was below expectations but actually doesn't matter much; the point of contention is not there now);
(A bit of clarification here, Waller (that hawkish guy) is almost certain to win the position of the next Federal Reserve Chair, the market is panicking, but Powell's term lasts until May to June, and that's when the update will come. For now, we still need to watch Powell's expressions; it's likely to remain moderately cautious and dovish.)

Let's first talk about the recent operations.
1. This round of grasping the trend of precious metals has been relatively accurate, maintaining long positions in gold, and looking at a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, returning above 5000 is a high probability event.$PAXG
2. Short-term no longer considering any long positions related to BTC, due to its substitute relationship with gold, even though we currently observe that ETH is still weaker than BTC in a risk environment.$BTC
3. I should reflect on the long position in ETH, which has exposed some issues: logically, I was betting on the defensive line of 2800 points at the end of the range to avoid breaking the range, but clearly breaking the 2800 support, I was overly confident and did not exit, now I am deeply trapped near 2300😭😭😭...... In the short term, I can basically play dead.$ETH

#下任美联储主席会是谁？ #加密市场回调
Please pay attention to the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chair tonight, the voting on polymarket is as follows, Kevin Warsh's selection probability has soared to over 90%:

Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve governor who served on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2011. He is a relatively young and experienced policymaker, currently considered a strong candidate for the next Fed Chair that Trump is seriously considering, with recent market predictions showing a significant increase in betting probabilities.
This person has a hawkish stance, supports "structural interest rate cuts with fiscal discipline under controllable inflation" and opposes large-scale quantitative easing. He emphasizes price stability rather than short-term stimulus. Warsh has publicly criticized the Fed, believing that the Fed has "overextended its power" and accepts the idea that "central banks should be constrained and reshaped"; therefore, he is seen as a more easily controlled and more willing to align with bureaucratic tendencies Federal Reserve Chair (which may also lead to a decline in the Fed's independence).

#贵金属巨震 #加密市场回调 $ETH
The recent decline in precious metals is more a result of the retreat of war expectations leading to technical profit-taking and short-term trading pressures, which further dragged down the stock market and crypto market. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, this is beneficial for the prosperity of other assets, with two mid-term logics:
1. Optimistic about the resource attributes of bulk commodities, the potential increase in resource stocks may far exceed that of gold and silver.
2. Reaffirming that WEB3's acceleration in breaking through barriers is an indisputable fact, optimistic about ETH as the foundation for WEB3's prosperity expectations.

Key operation points are as follows:
1. Consider taking profits on palladium short positions, expecting precious metals to decline further, especially junk metals. Look for opportunities to go long on copper.

$ETH #金价再冲高位 #黄金比特币联动行情能走多远？
1. Gold, silver, and other precious metals continue to rise. China has implemented purchase limits, and the world is eager to buy gold. The market may accelerate before hitting a peak, but it could be a long process.
2. Resource sectors are continuously rising and may become the main outlet for gold sentiment in the future. Pay attention to copper (core), crude oil, natural gas, and other bulk commodities, but be aware that some resource stocks may already be at relatively high positions due to the influence of precious metals.
3. National and large capital purchases are the driving force behind the rise in gold prices. The logic leans more towards passive holding to hedge against macro risks. Only those aiming to make a profit (who find gold too expensive to buy) and die-hard fans in the crypto space (who aggressively promote digital gold) will buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin is merely a toy in the face of gold and real resources, only able to provide emotional premiums.

$BTC BTC daily level, hitting the lower edge of the range. Although it's conservative not to go long below 89000, this position is a good point of divergence. If it can stabilize and return above 89000, the weekly chart will have a perfect retest. Betting on the lower edge is possible, but basically, it's just guessing the size. Right now, direction is not important; just do what you believe in, and controlling the risk-reward ratio is key.
Overall, it's still because the market doesn't have a strong main narrative. The funds are in the PVP stage; it's important to align with the divergence but not to put yourself in at risk.
Personal direction: Short at 88000~88500, stop loss at 89000~89500. Although I really want to go long based on the weekly chart, I think about why there is no funding for such a good opportunity. Are they all blind? It feels like this kind of FOMO market usually presents a perfect entry opportunity when it's not a good sign...

Weekly Analysis: Death Signs Have Appeared
This round's weekly MACD originally had a good moderate upward trend, but after a high surge, a large bearish candle has engulfed it downward, increasing the risk of a false breakout. A drop below 100,000 and a consolidation structure below is a significant trend break, now entirely reliant on strong interest rate cut expectations for survival.
89000~86500 is the dangerous lower range of the consolidation box. If the price is continuously suppressed at the edge of the lower box for several days, be cautious of the risk of a breakdown.
In the best-case scenario, this round of interest rate cuts leads to a significant increase, possibly pulling back to 120,000 or even higher, but there's a high probability of forming a double top. In general, it may pull back near 110,000 for a multi-round decline. In the worst-case scenario, it may break down directly after a period of sideways movement. I believe the first two scenarios have a higher probability, but 89000 (the midpoint of the box) serves as a critical risk control point, below which I will not go long.

$ETH The volatility relatively objectively reflects the current overall sentiment. The weekly perspective is as follows:
Historically, there have been three similar turning points: the first (July 21), the second (April 22), and the third (October 24), all located in the middle of a downward trend with a consolidation period of nearly two months.
From the perspective of the time window, it is currently nearing the end of consolidation. Pay attention to whether the position at 2850 (yellow line) will break below the weekly closing. If it breaks, it may follow the situation marked by the red circle 2; otherwise, you can hold on and wait for the MACD to cross above, aiming for a market movement that reaches at least 4000 points.