[Future News] #美国伊朗对峙 #小非农数据不及预期
1. The Russia-Ukraine talks will take place from February 4 to February 5 (it feels like it's trending towards easing);
2. The US-Iran talks will take place on February 6 (this feels like it might cool off; the tension is currently high with significant disagreements, which could be good for gold, but we cannot rule out some official statements like 'we have made progress');
3. The unemployment claims in the United States for the period of February 5 to February 6 will be released, along with the unemployment rate for January. Pay close attention to the attitude of the Federal Reserve (yesterday's minor non-farm payroll was below expectations but actually doesn't matter much; the point of contention is not there now);
(A bit of clarification here, Waller (that hawkish guy) is almost certain to win the position of the next Federal Reserve Chair, the market is panicking, but Powell's term lasts until May to June, and that's when the update will come. For now, we still need to watch Powell's expressions; it's likely to remain moderately cautious and dovish.)
【Precious Metal Trend Analysis】$PAXG $XAU $XAG
Gold's high yesterday hit 5120 but didn't get executed, it's driving me crazy, just 3 dollars short. However, no need to panic; the current situation is wide fluctuations. After seeing a few bearish candles, it should be about time to buy. If it can't rise further, then sell to do T. Restarting the trend will still take time; don't just hold on.
Currently, the upper limit of the fluctuation zone is around 5100–5200, and the lower limit is around 4700–4600 (based on PAXG), with a wide range, so leave yourself some bullets.
An interesting opportunity is that the silver-gold ratio has been rising for a year. After a violent pullback a few days ago, it has reached a support zone (the number of retail and leveraged positions in silver may be much higher than in gold). You could consider going long on silver and short on gold for hedging, or just go long on silver (in line with the overall situation). Here are a few more points to consider:
1. The hardest is still gold, the most conservative, favored by old money, and with the highest consensus.
2. The actual industrial demand for silver is 'seemingly increasing' (photovoltaics, low-resistance scenarios), with extremely low inventory, which may lead to a squeeze.
3. About 70–80% of global silver comes from by-products of mining associated minerals (such as copper, lead, and zinc), with low supply elasticity and limited recycling technology.
4. Risk point: Historically, after a surge in the silver-gold ratio, the A-kill downtrend in silver squeeze has ultimately failed. How long this time will last is uncertain; the industrial metal properties of silver have also indirectly weakened its safe-haven ability. This is just a superficial observation and explanation of silver's nature; please conduct in-depth research before specific operations.
