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#黄金白银反弹
1. Macroeconomic Logic (Core Drivers)
① The decline in U.S. Treasury yields = The most fundamental variable for the rebound of precious metals
The essence of gold is:
As a non-yielding asset:
U.S. Treasury yields decrease
Real interest rates fall
👉 The opportunity cost of holding gold decreases
👉 Funds flow back to precious metals
📌 Logic Chain:
Expectations of economic slowdown → Expectations of interest rate cuts heat up → U.S. Treasury yields decline → Gold rises
② The weakening of the U.S. dollar
Gold and the U.S. dollar are usually negatively correlated:
The U.S. dollar index declines
Expectations of global liquidity improve
→ Gold and silver gain buying interest
Silver is more sensitive to the U.S. dollar because of its stronger industrial properties.
③ The rise in risk aversion
When the market experiences:
Geopolitical risks
Financial risks
Severe stock market fluctuations
Banking risks
Funds will: reduce stocks
Buy gold
Silver, on the other hand, is driven by both risk aversion and industrial demand.

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#何时抄底？ ⚠️ BTC 波动性极高
有可能一段时间继续下跌
并不是所有支撑都一定有效
也有可能短线出现大幅反弹
⚠️ 新闻/宏观事件也可能影响走势
例如监管、ETF流入/流出、央行政策等都能瞬间改变市场情绪。
🟡 一句话总结
如果你是长期投资者，可以分批布局而不是试图精准抄底；
如果你是短线投机者，BTC 当前仍有下行风险，建议设定明确的支撑区间和止损计划。

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