#黄金白银反弹

1. Macroeconomic Logic (Core Drivers)

① The decline in U.S. Treasury yields = The most fundamental variable for the rebound of precious metals

The essence of gold is:

As a non-yielding asset:

U.S. Treasury yields decrease

Real interest rates fall

👉 The opportunity cost of holding gold decreases

👉 Funds flow back to precious metals

📌 Logic Chain:

Expectations of economic slowdown → Expectations of interest rate cuts heat up → U.S. Treasury yields decline → Gold rises

② The weakening of the U.S. dollar

Gold and the U.S. dollar are usually negatively correlated:

The U.S. dollar index declines

Expectations of global liquidity improve

→ Gold and silver gain buying interest

Silver is more sensitive to the U.S. dollar because of its stronger industrial properties.

③ The rise in risk aversion

When the market experiences:

Geopolitical risks

Financial risks

Severe stock market fluctuations

Banking risks

Funds will: reduce stocks

Buy gold

Silver, on the other hand, is driven by both risk aversion and industrial demand.