AriaMMT

You think you're too smart to get scammed?
So did the person who just lost $282 million.
Let me be crystal clear: I've seen PhDs, developers, and early Bitcoin OGs get absolutely wrecked by social engineering. Intelligence doesn't protect you. Paranoia does.
What Actually Happened
On January 10th, someone lost 2.05 million $LTC ($153M) and 1,459 $BTC ($139M) in a single night. Not through some zero-day exploit. Not through a smart contract bug.
Through a fake Trezor support agent.
They gave up their seed phrase. Game over. The attacker moved faster than most people process a text message bridging across THORChain, converting to #Monero , and washing the funds through multiple chains before most of us even woke up.

ZeroShadow managed to freeze $700K within 20 minutes. That's 0.25% of the total. The rest? Gone into the void.
The Psychology That Gets Everyone
Here's what it taught me: Scammers don't hack systems, they hack humans.
They exploit three pressure points:
FEAR → "Your wallet has been compromised! Act now!"
URGENCY → "You have 10 minutes before funds are drained!"
GREED → "Claim your airdrop! Limited time!"
When your brain is flooded with cortisol, rational thinking shuts down. You become a puppet. This is why social engineering works on literally everyone given the right scenario, at the right time, with the right pressure.

The Hard Rules (From Someone Who's Seen It All)
If you want to survive in this space, here are the non-negotiable rules:
🔒 Rule 1: Hardware Wallets Are Not Optional
If you're holding more than $10K and it's not on a hardware wallet, you're gambling. Ledger, Trezor, whatever just get one. But remember: the device protects nothing if you give away your seed phrase.
🚫 Rule 2: No Support Will Ever DM You First
Not Trezor. Not Ledger. Not Binance. Not MetaMask. EVER.
If someone reaches out claiming to be support, it's a scam. 100% of the time. No exceptions. Block immediately.
🔑 Rule 3: Your Seed Phrase Dies With You
Never type it into a website. Never send it in a DM. Never take a photo of it. Never store it digitally.
Metal backup. Fireproof safe. Multiple geographic locations.
If someone asks for your seed phrase, they are trying to rob you. This includes "verification," "migration," or "security checks."
🎯 Rule 4: Burner Wallets for Everything
Interacting with a new dApp? Claiming an airdrop? Testing a protocol?
Use a burner wallet with minimal funds.
Your main stack should never touch unverified contracts. Ever. I don't care if it's trending on Twitter.

🔐 Rule 5: Revoke Permissions Regularly
Go to revoke.cash or approved.zone right now and check what contracts have access to your wallets.
That NFT mint from 8 months ago? Still has unlimited token approval. Revoke it. Do this monthly.
📧 Rule 6: Treat 2FA Like Your Life Depends On It
SMS 2FA is a joke SIM swaps happen daily. Use authenticator apps (Google Authenticator, Authy) or hardware keys(YubiKey).
And for the love of Satoshi, enable withdrawal whitelisting on exchanges.
🧠 Rule 7: Trust Nothing, Verify Everything
Bookmark official URLs yourself. Check contract addresses on multiple sources. Verify signatures. Cross-reference wallet addresses character by character.
If it feels urgent, it's probably a scam.
The Brutal Truth About This Space
Web3 is the Wild West. The same decentralization that gives us freedom also means there's no undo button, no customer support, and no insurance.
One wrong click. One moment of panic. One fake support DM.
That's all it takes.
But here's the flip side: if you follow the rules, you become unfuckwithable. You can participate in the greatest financial revolution of our lifetime without becoming a statistic.
The Mindset That Keeps You Safe
After 15 years, here's what separates survivors from victims:
Assume everyone is trying to scam you. Not because you're paranoid, but because you're prepared.
Legitimate projects will never rush you. Real support will never ask for credentials. Actual opportunities don't require you to "act now."
When in doubt, slow down. Close the tab. Walk away. Come back in an hour with a clear head.
Stay SAFU, Stay Winning
Look, I'm bullish as hell on crypto. Bitcoin just hit new ATHs. Institutional adoption is accelerating. We're still early.
But none of that matters if you get rugged by a fake support agent on a Tuesday night.
Protect your stack. Follow the rules. Be paranoid.
Because the only thing better than gains is keeping your gains.
We're all going to make it… but only if we stay SAFU.
Not financial or security advice. But seriously, go revoke those permissions right now.

let's talk about something most crypto people don't want to admit: bitcoin might have already won its biggest battle and lost its biggest opportunity at the same time.
the uncomfortable truth about bitcoin's next 10x
in my view, bitcoin no longer has the potential to increase in value by 1,000x, 100x, or even 10x. i know that sounds bearish, but hear me out.
fifteen years ago, bitcoin emerged at the perfect moment right after the 2008 financial crisis when trust in governments, banks, and fiat currencies was at historic lows. remember occupy wall street? the tea party? that was real rage. bitcoin offered something different: decentralized, scarce, and completely outside the traditional financial system.
back then, the extreme volatility (70% to 90% drawdowns, multiple times) was tolerable because it was always followed by 5x, 10x, sometimes even 100x rallies. much of this growth was driven by waves of new, highly leveraged investors attracted by returns that were literally impossible to find in traditional assets.
the discovery phase is over
today, bitcoin is widely known. your parents have heard of it. your barber has an opinion on it. that one friend who still uses a flip phone? yeah, they know what bitcoin is too.
this dramatically reduces the likelihood of massive new inflows purely from discovery. the "wait until people find out about this" narrative is dead. people found out. they either bought in or decided not to.
at the same time, investors seeking speculative upside now have alternatives: gold, silver, tech stocks like tesla, or other high-risk assets that offer more stability while satisfying the same appetite for outsized gains.
we got what we asked for (and it killed the dream)
here's the paradox that nobody wants to acknowledge:
bitcoin spent years fighting for mainstream institutional and governmental acceptance. that day has arrived.
etfs exist ✓banks offer exposure ✓regulators have frameworks ✓institutions are accumulating ✓
yet this acceptance has not translated into widespread use as a medium of exchange for goods and services. instead, financialization has deepened.
large institutions can now trade "paper bitcoin" through derivatives, potentially expanding synthetic supply through futures and short selling. the original scarcity narrative — the thing that made bitcoin special — gets diluted within the modern financial system.
"we wanted wall street to accept bitcoin. they did. then they turned it into another tradfi product."
~ every og bitcoiner, probably
so what's the path forward?
i struggle to see a clear trajectory for bitcoin under its current setup. the explosive growth phase was fueled by:
novelty (now gone)distrust in traditional systems (institutions co-opted it)extreme volatility cycles (being smoothed out by institutional participation)
now that bitcoin is widely known, institutionalized, and deeply integrated into mainstream finance, the asymmetric upside that defined its early years appears structurally harder to repeat.
the one scenario that could change everything
one potential catalyst would be genuine, large-scale adoption as a unit of account for globally traded commodities — oil, gas, strategic resources.
if major exporters began pricing and settling contracts in #bitcoin , demand would shift from speculative to transactional. that would represent a structural transformation, not just another hype cycle.
however, this would require:
geopolitical realignmentsovereign-level coordinationprice stability (the irony)
and here's where it gets really interesting...
the cruel irony: legitimacy kills volatility
paradoxically, if bitcoin achieved that level of real-economy integration, investors would have to say goodbye to the volatility that historically drove outsized returns.
a currency used for large-scale commodity settlement cannot swing 20-30% in a week without creating systemic risk. stability would become a feature, not a bug.
and while stability could validate bitcoin as infrastructure, it would also kill its appeal as a high-beta speculative asset.
in that scenario, bitcoin might mature into a low-volatility settlement layer — valuable, sure, but unlikely to deliver the exponential gains that early adopters experienced.
the identity crisis
this is bitcoin's real problem in 2026:
is it:
digital gold? (then it competes with actual gold)a payments network? (then it competes with visa/mastercard)a speculative asset? (then it competes with tech stocks)global reserve currency? (then it needs stability, killing returns)
it can't be all of these things simultaneously. and trying to be everything to everyone might mean it ends up being nothing special to anyone.
what this means for crypto broadly
if bitcoin — the flagship, the original, the most trusted — is facing this identity crisis, what does that mean for the rest of crypto?
defi promised to replace banks. instead, it became a casino.
nfts promised digital ownership. instead, they became jpgs of monkeys.
web3 promised decentralization. instead, it became vc-funded startups with tokens.
the pattern is clear: crypto gets absorbed by the system it was supposed to replace, then loses the properties that made it interesting in the first place.
the uncomfortable question
in short, the path to legitimacy and the path to extraordinary returns may no longer be the same path.
and as a result, i'm genuinely not sure what purpose bitcoin and crypto serve today beyond being another asset class for speculation.
maybe that's enough. maybe being "just another tradeable asset" is the final form.
but if that's the case, we should stop pretending it's revolutionary and just call it what it is: a speculative tech stock with better branding.
#RiskAssetsMarketShock $BTC

Crypto's savage bear is on life support, roars Compass Point final innings as BTC claws $67-69K, shredded 45% from its $126K+ October 2025 throne.
Battle map locked in:
- Base Case Bunker ($60K–$68K): Unbreakable wall of HODLer steel, miner floors (~$55-60K), and institutional war chests. Default win sans stockpocalypse.
- Hellfire Drop ($55K Void or Worse): Global risk meltdown ignites $70-80K "air pocket" carnage—ETFs bleed, suits hedge into oblivion.

- TradFi Timebomb: ETF titans (BlackRock, Fidelity) clutch billions; corporate BTCc bets and 401(k) invasions sync with S&P (0.6 corr). Supercharges downside pain, forges eternal floors as big money fights back.
- Phoenix Rising: Lamest bear in history—battle-hardened markets, election clarity, funding rates in the crypt. Stabilize macro, unleash inflow tsunami.
Smashed my play: Flipped BTC to $4K gold rocket. Profits on ice poised to pounce Bitcoin at fire-sale prices. #bitcoin

Vanar Chain is a Layer‑1 blockchain built around performance, user experience, and real‑world utility, rather than short‑term hype. Its narrative centers on infrastructure first: how liquidity, apps, and creators actually behave on the chain, not just what the headlines say
What Vanar Chain is
Vanar Chain is an Ethereum‑compatible Layer 1 optimized for high‑throughput, low‑cost transactions and real‑time applications. It targets sectors such as gaming, AI‑driven apps, real‑world assets (RWAs), and digital identity, where speed, low latency, and predictable fees matter more than abstract “narratives.
The chain uses a hybrid consensus that leans on a Proof‑of‑Reputation (PoR)‑style model with trusted validators, aiming to balance decentralization, security, and scalability while keeping verification efficient. At the same time, it avoids the fee volatility common on large base chains by committing to fixed or very stable transaction‑cost structures.
Why infrastructure matters more than “noise”
Vanar’s ecosystem deliberately emphasizes rails over stories: it builds scalable, low‑latency infrastructure that lets dApps, games, and AI agents actually work smoothly at scale. When you watch liquidity move, apps redraw their UX states, and creators ship new products on @vanarchain, the focus becomes measurable throughput, not influencer cycles.
The project’s low‑latency execution, coupled with FIFO‑style transaction ordering and stable fees, means developers can design experiences that feel Web2‑smooth while remaining fully on‑chain. This approach matters because mass consumer adoption hinges on frictionless onboarding, responsive interfaces, and predictable economics—things that infrastructure quietly enables while social noise often overlooks.
Creators, apps, and liquidity dynamics
@Vanarchain positions itself as a “creator‑first” ecosystem, with tooling such as CreatorPad that helps studios, artists, and developers onboard users without complex wallet barriers. By lowering the UX cliff—invitation‑driven accounts, simple recovery, and Web2‑like flows—the chain supports creators who want to ship immersive experiences without demanding their audience become crypto experts.
On the liquidity side, the combination of low‑cost, multi‑chain‑friendly scaling and strong DeFi and NFT support allows capital to flow more freely between gaming, entertainment, and asset‑backed protocols. As more ecosystems struggle with congestion and convoluted user journeys, Vanar’s target becomes clear: be the rail where apps, liquidity, and creators interact with minimal friction and maximum real‑time responsiveness.
Role of VANRY in the ecosystem
The native token, VANRY, powers staking, transaction‑fee coverage, and governance inside the Vanar ecosystem. Validators and reputable stakeholders participate in the network’s Proof‑of‑Reputation‑aligned layer, earning or staking VANRY while contributing to reliability and censorship resistance.
Because Vanar focuses on real‑world‑oriented use cases (RWAs, AI‑powered financial logic, and “PayFi”‑style flows), VANRY isn’t just a speculative asset; it is designed to align incentives between validators, developers, and end‑users across payments, gaming, and data‑intensive applications. Over time, the token’s value is framed less by memes and more by how much high‑throughput, low‑latency work actually runs on the chain.
Why “Vanar keeps reminding me that infrastructure matters”
Posts like yours capture a core ethos in the Vanar community: sustainable growth comes from silently optimized infrastructure, not fleeting hype cycles. Watching how liquidity, apps, and creators behave on @undefined reveals what infrastructure‑first thinking truly looks like constant refinement of throughput, latency, and UX, with the expectation that strong rails attract strong products over time.
In a market where “next big narrative” chases often eclipse fundamentals, Vanar’s persistence on this line—infrastructure over noise—positions it as a project to watch for the next decade of immersive, AI‑driven, and asset‑backed Web3 experiences.
#vanar

Plasma (XPL) and Solana (SOL) are high-performance Layer 1 blockchains, but Plasma specializes in stablecoin payments while Solana serves as a general-purpose platform.[1][2]
Core Positioning
@Plasma focuses narrowly on low-cost, high-volume stablecoin transfers like zero-fee USDT, using EVM compatibility for easy Ethereum dApp migration. Solana targets broad applications including DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and social apps with its versatile high-throughput design.[3][4][5][1]
Performance Comparison
| Metric | Plasma (XPL) | Solana (SOL) |
|---------------------|---------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|
| Consensus | PlasmaBFT (parallel Fast HotStuff BFT)| PoH + PoS |
| TPS (Theoretical) | High (optimized for payments; exact TBD)| 65,000+ [4][6] |
| TPS (Real-time avg) | Stable for payments (data emerging) | 747 TPS (1H avg); peaks 4,709 [7]|
| Block Time | Seconds finality | ~0.39s [7] |
| Fees | Zero for USDT transfers via paymaster [3][2] | < $0.001 typically [2] |
Plasma prioritizes payment stability over raw peaks, avoiding Solana's past outages.[8]
Compatibility and Features
$XPL offers full EVM support, a Bitcoin bridge for pBTC in contracts, and custom gas tokens. Solana uses a non-EVM runtime but supports EVM via tools like Neon; it excels in parallel processing for diverse dApps.
Ecosystem and Maturity
Solana hosts a mature ecosystem with thousands of projects and higher current activity (2.69M txns/1H). Plasma, newer since 2025 mainnet, emphasizes stablecoin infrastructure backed by figures like Tether's CEO, with growing payment-focused adoption. #Plasma

if you invest in crypto, you cannot say you’ve done your research unless you’ve read this thesis on tokenization, published by Larry Fink today in the annual investor letter for BlackRock, the worlds largest asset manager.
For context, BlackRock manages over $11 Trillion in assets and is one of the top shareholders in just about any company you’ve ever heard of. They led the launch of #bitcoin ETFs followed by Ethereum ETFs. They launched their BUIDL fund for on-chain asset management, which has already surpassed over $2B in AUM on Ethereum.
Do yourself a favor and read it below:
Tokenization is democratization
The world’s money moves through plumbing built when trading floors still shouted orders and fax machines felt revolutionary.
Take the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). It’s the system that underpins trillions of dollars in global transactions every day, and it works much like a relay race: Banks hand off instructions one by one, meticulously checking details at each step. That relay approach made sense in the 1970s, an analog era when the markets were much smaller and daily transactions were much fewer. But today, relying on SWIFT feels like routing emails through the postal office.
Tokenization changes all that. If SWIFT is the postal service, tokenization is email itself—assets move directly and instantly, sidestepping intermediaries.
What exactly is tokenization? It's turning real-world assets—stocks, bonds, real estate—into digital tokens tradable online. Each token certifies your ownership of a specific asset, much like a digital deed. Unlike traditional paper certificates, these tokens live securely on a blockchain, enabling instant buying, selling, and transferring without cumbersome paperwork or waiting periods.
Every stock, every bond, every fund—every asset—can be tokenized. If they are, it will revolutionize investing. Markets wouldn't need to close. Transactions that currently take days would clear in seconds. And billions of dollars currently immobilized by settlement delays could be reinvested immediately back into the economy, generating more growth.
Perhaps most importantly, tokenization makes investing much more democratic.
- It can democratize access.
Tokenization allows for fractional ownership. That means assets could be sliced into infinitely small pieces. This lowers one of the barriers to investing in valuable, previously inaccessible assets like private real estate and private equity.
- It can democratize shareholder voting.
When you own a stock, you have a right to vote on the company’s shareholder proposals. Tokenization makes that easier because your ownership and voting rights are digitally tracked, allowing you to vote seamlessly and securely from anywhere.
- It can democratize yield.
Some investments produce much higher returns than others, but only big investors can get into them. One reason? Friction. Legal, operational, bureaucratic. Tokenization strips that away, allowing more people access to potentially higher returns.
One day, I expect tokenized funds will become as familiar to investors as ETFs—provided we crack one critical problem: identity verification.
Financial transactions demand rigorous identity checks. Apple Pay and credit cards handle identity verification effortlessly, billions of times a day. Trade venues like NYSE and MarketAxess manage to do the same for buying and selling securities. But tokenized assets won’t run through those traditional channels, meaning we need a new digital identity verification system. It sounds complex, but India, the world’s most populous country, has already done it. Today, over 90% of Indians can securely verify transactions directly from their smartphones. The takeaway is clear. If we're serious about building an efficient and accessible financial system, championing tokenization alone won't suffice. We must solve digital verification, too.

XRP’s recent slide has left traders asking whether the worst is over. Prices have been weak since Q4 2025, and reports say the token has lost roughly half its value from an October opening near $2.80 to about $1.42 as we speak. That drop came with a sharp move in momentum indicators, which traders rarely ignore.
Extreme RSI Readings Near A 12-Year Low
According to market reports, the daily relative strength index fell to about 17 on Feb. 5, pushing readings to levels not seen in over a decade. That is an extreme number for RSI on a daily chart.
When readings hit this depth, past action has often produced strong, quick rebounds. History does not promise a repeat, but it does give a pattern that many traders watch closely.
Patterns From The Past Offer Both Hope And A Warning
Reports note several prior episodes when low RSI numbers lined up with sharp recoveries. After an October low, a bounce of roughly 70% came in just nearly half a month.
Other lows in mid-2024 and April 2024 produced gains of about 65% and 35% within short windows of days. Those moves were fast, and they were driven by buyers jumping in when momentum looked exhausted.
Still, past rebounds can be followed by renewed selling, and what happened before isn’t guaranteed to happen again.

XRP just hit an RSI of 20 on the daily—the most oversold it’s ever been in its history.Every single time XRP has hit these extreme levels, a 15-40% bounce followed within two weeks. Not sometimes. Every time.Relief bounce to $2.20-$2.50 is the highest probability setup we’ve… pic.twitter.com/F8e7WBRbyu

Major Bounce In The Offing?
A vocal market commentator, crypto researcher Ripple Bull Winkle, has pointed to those patterns and argued that a 15%–40% bounce often follows such extreme readings.
Based on reports, that view has traction with some traders, who are watching for signs of a short squeeze or a flush that shakes out weak hands.

Other traders caution against leaning on a single signal. The broader market, macro news, and funds’ behavior can overwhelm technical cues.
Large short-liquidity zones above $2.25 and between $4.20 and $4.40 are on the chart; if price hits those spots, moves can accelerate quickly.

XRP’s Position Versus Major Coins
XRP has not been alone in losing ground, but its pair trades show some relative strength. The XRP/ETH pair has been in a range since August 2025, and XRP/BTC recovered after a brief breakdown.
Dominance metrics have held near the 3.5% area and have even bounced to roughly 3.6%. These data points mean XRP isn’t collapsing in isolation; it’s moving inside a market that’s broadly weak.
What Traders Might Watch Next
Volume will matter. So will daily closes above key resistances and whether the RSI climbs out of extreme territory with conviction. A clean break above the $2.25 level could put the next targets in view, while failure to sustain a bounce would likely keep sellers in control.

What Traders Might Watch Next
Volume will matter. So will daily closes above key resistances and whether the RSI climbs out of extreme territory with conviction. A clean break above the $2.25 level could put the next targets in view, while failure to sustain a bounce would likely keep sellers in control.

Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound late last week, surging approximately 12% from a Thursday low near $60,000 to trade around $70,000-$71,000 by Friday, in what analysts characterize as a short squeeze rather than a sustainable recovery driven by fresh buying demand.
Short Squeeze Fuels Rapid Rally
The rally triggered $283.42 million in crypto futures liquidations over 24 hours, with Bitcoin shorts accounting for an overwhelming 83.96% of liquidated positions, according to data from Coinglass. The forced buying created a rapid feedback loop as bearish traders scrambled to cover positions, propelling prices higher in a classic squeeze pattern.
Analysts Sound Caution on 'Dead Cat Bounce'
Market observers warn the bounce exhibits characteristics of a "dead cat bounce" — a temporary recovery in a declining market that does not signal a genuine reversal. Several technical indicators support this interpretation.
The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures price differences between the major U.S. exchange and global averages, has remained negative for 25 consecutive days, currently at -0.0864%. This persistent negative premium signals institutional selling pressure rather than accumulation. "Such a large negative premium suggests strong selling pressure from institutions is causing both price declines and premium widening," CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen below $50 billion, reaching its lowest level since March 2025, indicating sustained deleveraging across derivatives markets. Bloomberg reported that Bitcoin's recovery "rings hollow" as derivatives positioning remains bearish.
Trump Reserve Speculation Adds Fuel
Speculation emerged during the selloff after CNBC commentator Jim Cramer said on Friday he had "heard at $60,000 the President is gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve." The U.S. government holds approximately 328,372 BTC worth over $23 billion, according to Arkham data, though no new purchases have been detected in the Treasury wallet.
The strategic reserve, established by executive order in March 2025, is currently funded solely through assets forfeited in criminal and civil proceedings. White House crypto czar David Sacks previously stated the administration "won't bail out" Bitcoin and lacks authority to compel purchases using public funds.
Broader Market Context
The rebound follows Bitcoin's worst week since November 2022, with the cryptocurrency plunging roughly 17% in five days before finding support. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its all-time high above $126,000 reached in October 2025.
Despite the volatility, research firm Bernstein maintains its 2026 price target of $150,000, noting that spot Bitcoin ETF outflows remained below 5% during the correction, suggesting institutional conviction remains intact. The firm describes the current environment as "the weakest bear case in history."
For now, traders are monitoring whether genuine demand materializes above $70,000 or whether the squeeze exhausts itself as forced buying subsides.
Bitcoin's technical picture remains mixed after the recent 12% rebound, with momentum indicators showing short-term oversold relief but broader bearish structure intact. As of February 9, 2026, Bitcoin trades around $70,542, up 1.8% from the prior day but still down sharply from January peaks near $95,000.[1]
Key Support Levels
Critical supports cluster between $60,000-$62,000, aligning with the February 6 intraday low, the 200-week moving average, and long-term holder cost bases per Glassnode data. A break below $65,925 could accelerate downside toward $62,510 or even $59,800, invalidating recent bounce patterns.
Key Resistance Levels
Immediate overhead resistance sits at $72,000-$73,000, with denser supply at $80,000 and $85,000-$90,000 where institutional selling has dominated. Clearing $72,828 decisively would target $78,000-$80,000, but failure here reinforces the dead cat bounce narrative.

Momentum Indicators
RSI readings have rebounded from oversold territory below 30 (early February) to neutral around 65, leaving room for upside but flashing caution on daily charts. MACD shows bullish histogram expansion at 880 but remains vulnerable to negative divergence if volume doesn't follow. Bollinger Bands position Bitcoin 1.10 above the middle band, suggesting testing upper limits without extreme overbought conditions yet.
Price Action Outlook
Weekly charts display a bullish engulfing pattern post-correction, hinting at potential recovery to $89,000 if supports hold. However, declining open interest and negative Coinbase Premium confirm the rally's squeeze-driven nature rather than fundamental buying. Traders watch for sustained volume above $71,000 to validate bulls.

Why? Because Halvings of the inflationary coinbase mining reward every four years halve the miners' current $65/tx at 3tps fee subsidy income.
Historically, $BTC supporters have suggested that Price Doublings will compensate for these Halvings. But if this were hypothetically to happen, Bitcoin's marketcap would exceed gold's current marketcap three-fold by 2044.
But...but: Once BTC exceeds gold's marketcap, it can no longer double again in value every following four years. Because there's no further source of outside funds to invest enough new money in the following four years to double its marketcap. (It can't be the gold holders buying at that point - they wouldn't be rich enough.) So from that point onwards, Halvings will halve coinbase mining rewards every four years, but without their individual value rising. So miners will drop out, and security will fall inexorably. And Bitcoin will ultimately die.
Fees can't replace the current $65/tx at 3tps coinbase mining reward subsidy, because Bitcoin is already running at 3tps, with a maximum 7tps settlement capacity. Many fewer people would use Bitcoin if it had an average $65 fee. Many fewer people would consider opening and closing a Lightning Network channel with an average $65 fee. So far more likely is that fees would have to be an average $650/tx at 0.3tps to provide miners with the same income.
It gets worse: $650/tx at 0.3tps would only be the average needed. Users would need to pay over $1000/tx to get first block confirmation. This would result in a fee spiral - with the last Bitcoin holders desperately trying to get out with $10,000/tx fees as it collapses at 0.03tps.
Cheaper energy in future doesn't change this. Cheaper energy only results in more miners calculating more hashes. Cheaper energy doesn't just makes Bitcoin easier to mine for existing miners - it makes it cheaper for a hypothetical attacker too. Most people think that a simple increase in hashrate gives extra security - but it does not. Bitcoin's Proof of Work Game Theory makes Bitcoin (currently) secure only because it's expensive to outhash the rest of the network. Bitcoin only stays secure if it's expensive to attack. So cheaper electricity (or more efficient mining rigs) doesn't affect the Game Theory at all.
Fiat inflation doesn't change this. The miners need to be paid real value to pay for real electricity for real security.
Any hypothetical future success of Lightning Network would actually make the problem worse, not better - because it retains fees in L2 - without them ever reaching the miners on L1. Similarly for any future L2 ZK rollup layer.
The only way to avoid this ultimate doom is for Bitcoin to continue to subsidise fees with its inflation. The only way to avoid this doom is for Bitcoin to add a permanent ~1% tail emission, giving it a nominal infinite Maximum Supply. (Naturally Bitcoin BTC supporters are not yet ready to accept this option - they didn't even yet realise that there's a looming, unavoidable problem.)
[This "doom scenario" becomes extremely relevant when we hear that pension providers are starting to consider offering Bitcoin within 401K plans. 22 years is suddenly not so far away.]
There's the theory - have a go at finding a flaw in it. Please change my mind. Not with insult or derision, but with a well constructed logical argument. Quote any line with an error, and explain why it's incorrect. Change my mind. But until you do, the theory remains valid.
Bitcoin is doomed to die by its own hand by 2044