DOFA乔大安

I know that now is not a suitable time to talk about ideals, distant places, or 'long-termism.'

The current market is more like a
A machine that continuously consumes emotions.

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Many people are no longer angry, nor are they panicking.
They are just:
• Too lazy to watch the market
• Too lazy to analyze
• Too lazy to listen to any more 'opinions'

This is not calm; it is exhaustion after being consumed.

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I choose to write during this phase, not because I am overly optimistic,
But because I am very clear about one thing:

The truly important moments are never the noisiest times.

⚠️1968. Not a crash. Not a rebound. It's that kind of price movement where every day something is happening, but nothing has really changed. I watched the market for a long time today and noticed that the MA is still in a bearish arrangement, the price is being pressed by the moving averages, and the rebounds feel like they haven't eaten. But strangely, the contract open interest has not surged, the funding rate is close to 0, and the long and short positions are not extremely skewed.

This is not panic. I think the market is waiting for others to collapse first.
What really hurts is not the crash day, but this kind of situation now: unable to break the previous low,

Can't rise above 2000, every day wears down people's confidence.

From the moment it dropped down from 2300, I have cursed. Cursed the market, cursed the macro situation, cursed the news, cursed myself. The moment it broke below 2000, my heart did indeed skip a beat. But now at 1950, I am not so excited. Because what truly torments is not the crash. It's this kind of market that doesn't kill me, but also doesn't let me live comfortably.

I want to catch the bottom, and it gives me a slow decline. I want to short, and it suddenly bounces. I want to lie flat, and yet it grinds on me every day.

The contract positions have not exploded, and the funding rate is still hovering around negative values. No one is crazily going long, and no one is confidently going short. The entire market is like a group of night owls, staring at the screen, and no one dares to blink first.

Honestly, at first I was just watching it like a spectator. A billion dollars in ETH longs, huge floating losses, constant coin transfers, self-rescue style reductions... It seemed so far removed from us, right? But the more I watched, the less pleasant it became. Later, I suddenly realized something: every step he went through, I had actually experienced as well.

It's just that he had a few more zeros behind his position.
I don't have any.

He wasn't lacking in judgment, nor was he lacking in logic. He was just in a position where mistakes couldn't be afforded. Once the market turned against him, he had no option to 'wait and see.' It wasn't about whether he wanted to sell or not; it was about having to sell. It wasn't about whether he was optimistic or not; it was about survival. Isn't that just how we used to be?

The market these past two days has been more interesting in terms of sentiment than the news itself.
The tension between the U.S. and Iran is escalating; what exactly is the market afraid of? In the past two days, many people have focused on one sentence:
If negotiations fail, the U.S. may escalate military actions.


But I want to say something that may not be very popular: what the market is afraid of right now is not 'whether to go to war' but the risk being suddenly repriced.
These two are very different.
First, let's talk about the reality:

The current U.S.-Iran relationship is in a very delicate position.

In the past couple of days, looking at the ETH market has actually been quite "uncomfortable." It's not the kind of discomfort that scares you to death with a sudden drop, but rather: no matter how much it falls, it can't move, and no matter how much it rises, it can't go up. The price is hovering around 2000, the trading volume is shrinking, the funding rate is close to 0, and the open interest is even lower than on the day of the crash.

To be honest, this isn't a bull's carnival, nor is it a bear's paradise. It feels more like: those who couldn't hold on have already left, and the remaining people are starting to learn to keep quiet.

You see the current market:

Many people think that when Bithumb mistakenly issues such things, the market should panic and crash. But if you look closely at the market, you will find a very subtle thing:
👉 The price did not give feedback of 'systemic panic.' There was no continuous volume drop, nor was there that kind of 'first to run for respect' stampede. This instead made me start to be wary of another thing. It's not that everyone is not afraid of risk, but rather that everyone has become accustomed to risk.
I am used to problems with exchanges, used to black swans,
I am used to treating all anomalies as 'part of the market.'

When Bithumb mistakenly released the news about BTC, my first reaction was not 'Should I buy the dip?' but rather a very realistic thought: Fortunately, this did not happen on Binance.

Many people will say: Isn't it just an operational error? It wasn't hacked, and it didn't cause much loss.
This statement itself is not wrong. But the market's reaction at that time has actually indicated one thing—
The decline is not because the money is gone, but because 'trust has been revalued.'

I am not implying any platform. The scale, internal control, and compliance are different for each one. But from the market's perspective, there is a harsh reality: when risks cannot be quantified, the market will not differentiate between 'good and bad,' but will raise its guard overall.

ETH has returned to 2000 again.
But to be honest, my current feeling has nothing to do with 'the bull is coming'; instead, I have become more cautious.
From the trend, the bearish trend of this round of decline has not been truly broken, but there is a very obvious change: it has become very difficult for the bears to push the price down.

The trading volume is increasing, the sell orders are still there, but the price is not dropping; the funding rate is close to 0, and both longs and shorts are beginning to hesitate; the large holders' long-short ratio is slowly leaning towards the bulls. This is not the frenzy before a surge.

1. Technical Indicators


The price of Ethereum has recently continued to fall, forming a typical 'cup and handle' breakout pattern. On the daily chart, it has fallen below the 20-day and 50-day moving average pressure, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement. The trading volume has increased with the decline, and the MACD red bars have accelerated in contraction, indicating strong downward momentum. If it breaks below the support near $1,900 in the short term, it may further explore the $1,660–1,720 range. Conversely, if it can stabilize above $2,000 and break through the $2,200 resistance level, it is expected to reverse the downturn.
2. Contract Data and Capital Situation


Currently, the perpetual contract open interest remains high, indicating that both long and short capital are actively speculating. The data on large contract holders shows that long accounts are far fewer than short accounts. Generally speaking, when the number of positions is extremely unbalanced, the side with more positions is often composed of retail investors, while the side with fewer positions is mostly large holders and institutions. This suggests that institutions and large holders are more inclined towards short positions, while retail investors are relatively more bullish.

ETH has dropped below 1900 again. In the square, on X... there's a lot of discussion: “What's different this time when it drops below 1900 compared to before?”

Looking at these issues, I suddenly realized one thing: prices are changing, time is passing, but the way people struggle seems to never change.

It's not an expert perspective, just a very ordinary participant's thought: spot position, enter the market first and then talk.
Think from a different angle – what if it doesn't drop? What if it rebounds by 10% first?

Then what if it drops?

If you think that only retail investors are panicking right now, you might not have seen this news.
By the end of 2025, Yi Li Hua's institution had built over $1 billion in leveraged long positions on Aave, at one point being one of the largest ETH longs on-chain.
And the current situation is:
• Floating loss of $562 million
• Has already sold over $367 million in ETH on Binance
• If ETH reaches $1,800, this $1 billion position will be liquidated.
I don't want to pretend to be calm; to be honest, this news is not good for the longs.

But I want to make a more straightforward judgment:

A question that has been repeatedly discussed recently:
Will Bitcoin experience another 80% deep drawdown?
I went through the historical data again and recorded several objective facts.

In the past four complete bull and bear cycles, Bitcoin's maximum drawdowns were:
• 2011: Approximately -94%
• 2013: Approximately -87%
• 2017: Approximately -84%
• 2021: Approximately -77%

A clear change is: the extreme drawdown is gradually converging.

This does not mean 'it won't drop again',
Instead, the market structure itself is changing.
First, the holding structure is changing.