The market these past two days has been more interesting in terms of sentiment than the news itself.
The tension between the U.S. and Iran is escalating; what exactly is the market afraid of? In the past two days, many people have focused on one sentence:
If negotiations fail, the U.S. may escalate military actions.
But I want to say something that may not be very popular: what the market is afraid of right now is not 'whether to go to war' but the risk being suddenly repriced.
These two are very different.
First, let's talk about the reality:
The current U.S.-Iran relationship is in a very delicate position.
• There is military deterrence: aircraft carriers, deployments, shipping warnings.
• There is also diplomatic buffering: third-party channels are still negotiating.
• Is a full-scale war really starting?
👉 The probability is low, but the tail risk of "accidental ignition" is rising.
What the market hates the most is never the bad news itself,
But rather - uncertainty suddenly rears its head.
Two, the repricing of risk premium.
"This is not politics, but the repricing of risk premium." It speaks not of positions, but of capital paths. Let me break it down in a more straightforward way.
👇
🛢 Step one: Oil
It’s not because there's a real oil shortage, but rather that when the Middle East is tense, volatility reacts first.
Oil is always the "emotional indicator" of geopolitical risk.
It may not rise much, but it will definitely shake first.
🟡 Step two: Gold
When the market starts to realize: "This matter cannot be solved with just one candlestick."
Risk-averse funds will slowly find their positions.
Gold may not necessarily soar, but the support will become stronger.
💵 The last step: the dollar
This stage is actually the most easily misunderstood.
Many people shout "the dollar is taking off" as soon as they see risk.
But the reality is:
The dollar is more of a "reaction term after liquidity changes," not a first mover.
So what we see is:
• The dollar is not necessarily strong.
• But the "stability of the dollar" will be repeatedly tested.
Three, what about the crypto market? Let me speak frankly.
In this environment, the most awkward point for crypto is:
It is both a risk asset and is always expected to be a safe-haven asset.
The result is -
• When true risk aversion kicks in, it is often first cut.
• But once the risk has been digested to a certain stage, it is also the most likely to rebound.
So you will see a very familiar scene:
The more chaotic the news, the more the market grinds; the more emotions collapse, the closer the structure is to completion.
Four, I won't tell you whether to rush in or not.
But I can tell you, I am confirming something👇 I do not predict wars, nor bet on negotiation outcomes, I only look at one thing:
Has the risk already been largely digested by the price?
If so, then the volatility afterward is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run.
If not, then I would rather wait for another candlestick.
What truly drives you out of the market is never war,
But it is you who gets scared away in the "risks that haven't happened yet."
You may disagree. But you can look back and see, in every major geopolitical panic, who left the market at the lowest volatility.
